2020 Season Preview: Chicago Fire
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Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
Let me start by saying this, there are a lot of things I think the Chicago Fire could have done better this off-season related to their move to Soldier Field, their new logo, and their roster decisions. Rather than focus on what they’ve gotten wrong, I’m going to try to focus on answering one question: Will the Chicago Fire be a better team in 2020 than they were in 2019?
2019 Recap
The Chicago Fire finished 8th in the East in 2019 and missed the playoffs, but the expected goals show they should have been a lot better, as high as 2nd in MLS. The Fire were really good at creating high-quality chances (2nd in MLS with 54.9 expected goals) and really good at limiting opposition chances (4th in MLS with 40.2 expected goals against).
So despite what people on another soccer site might say, finishing actually wasn’t their biggest problem, as they scored 53 goals on 54.9 xG. Their biggest problem was conceding seven more goals than expected.
Offseason Moves
The Fire’s attack numbers from last season make the decision to blow up their attack by not bringing back Aleksandar Katai, Nicolas Gaitan, or Nemanja Nikolic all the more confusing. I’m not saying bring them all back, but maybe at least one?
The Fire had three of the top 20 players in MLS last year based on open-play expected goals (Katai, Nikolic, and Przemyslaw Frankowski) and assists per 96 minutes. The only other team that can make that claim is LAFC. Of those 3, only Frankowski is back for 2020. The Fire’s returning players accounted for just 51% of minutes played in 2019, the fewest in MLS.
For the 2020 season, San Jose, NYCFC, and Toronto lead the way, returning players accounting for 90% of minutes played. Chicago is only returning 51%. https://t.co/IzwiUd6LYI pic.twitter.com/toN4nYpJx1
— Eliot McKinley (@etmckinley) February 4, 2020
In addition to Nikolic, Katai, and Gaitan, significant contributors Dax McCarty and Bastian Schweinsteiger are gone, leaving gaping holes in the Fire lineup.
Alvaro Medran and Robert Beric have been brought in and are lockdown starters, but beyond that, not many high impact moves have been made. Miguel Angel Navarro is a fullback with potential and might start, but seems likely to be stuck behind Jonathan Bornstein at least early in the season. Bobby Shuttleworth, and Connor Sparrow are both GKs who probably aren’t upgrades on Kenneth Kronholm. Nicholas Slonina and Mauricio Pineda look like exciting young players, but seem unlikely to make significant contributions in 2020.
2020 Outlook
With so much change, it’s hard to write a really informed preview of what to expect from the Fire. In pursuit of answering the question of whether the Fire will be better in 2020 than in 2019, well, I’ve got more questions. Here are a few questions that I think will be vital to whether or not the Fire are improved in 2020 (in no particular order of importance):
Can Frankowski be as good or better than he was in 2019? Przemyslaw Frankowski was really good last year. Like, REALLY good. Here are a couple looks at how he stacked up among MLS wingers:
Top Six MLS Wingers by xG+xA per 96 minutes
| Player | Team | Shots | G | xG | KeyP | A | xA | xG+xA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vela | LAFC | 3.86 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 1.8 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.76 |
| Aleksandar Katai | CHI | 3.98 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 1.2 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.59 |
| Diego Rossi | LAFC | 3.09 | 0.5 | 0.33 | 1.4 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.56 |
| Cristian Penilla | NER | 2.66 | 0.25 | 0.3 | 2.11 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.56 |
| Alberth Elis | HOU | 2.8 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 1.56 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.55 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski | CHI | 1.78 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1.7 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.52 |
Those are elite numbers for an MLS winger. That said, Frankowski was mostly playing either on the opposite wing from Katai, who was even more elite and often drew the focus of defenses. Whether he can keep up these numbers with what will likely be increased attention from defensive tactics is a big question. If he can, and he develops chemistry with Medran and Beric, that will go a long way to making sure the Fire are able to score enough goals to compete in 2020.
Can Djordje Mihailovic and Brandt Bronico take the next step in their careers?
If the season started today (and less than 3 weeks isn’t very far from today), it looks like the midfield 3 for the Fire would be Medran, Mihailovic, and Bronico in some combination. If the Fire completes the signing of Designated Player Gaston Gimenez from Velez Sarsfield in Argentina, he’ll likely be the starting defensive midfielder. That deal was reported as being almost done in mid-January, then looked like it was off, and now reports from Argentina say the deal is done and he’ll join the Fire in March when the Superliga season ends. Signing Gimenez would reduce the pressure on Bronico a bit, but Bronico is still likely to get a lot of minutes in 2020.
Mihailovic was decent in 2019, but didn’t take the step forward many hoped for after getting that January USMNT call-up. Bronico was similarly decent, and paired well with Dax McCarty, but whether he’s ready to be THE defensive midfielder, rather than more of a box-to-box guy alongside a ball winner, is the question.
Comparing them to other MLS players at their positions, Bronico looks like a decent box-to-box player who doesn’t do nearly enough defending to be relied upon as a true #6, and Mihailovic also looks like a solid box-to-box midfielder who doesn’t create nearly enough in the attack to be a #10.
Now, maybe Medran is a chance creating machine, and “solid box-to-box” is all that the Fire need from Mihailovic. Maybe. To really compete in 2020 though, the Fire are going to need both of these players to make big steps forward, Bronico on the ball winning side, and Mihailovic in chance creation.
How good is Alvaro Medran?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Actually, I think there are two questions here: 1) How good is Medran? And 2) Is he creative enough for what the Fire need?
I think in general he’s probably a pretty good soccer player and will do fine. He’s coming off a 2018/2019 season with 12 starts (21 appearances) and 1,100 minutes in La Liga for a Rayo Vallecano team that finished dead last. He’s hovered around 1,000 minutes for various La Liga teams over the last 4 years. That’s not eye-popping, but it’s still high-level soccer.
Whether he provides enough in attack is the real question. Other than two seasons in the Spanish 3rd division (which weren’t really eye-popping themselves), his most productive goal-scoring season was 2018/19 with 3 goals, and he’s never had more than 1 assist in a season. Those aren’t numbers that suggest he’s going to be a chance creating machine. Whether he provides enough in attack really depends on what the Fire are hoping for. If they aren’t counting on much, then a huge jump from Mihailovic becomes even more vital. If they’re counting on a lot, well, maybe they shouldn’t be.
Is Robert Beric good?
The Fire are certainly counting on Beric to be good and score lots of goals in 2020. With Nikolic gone, that leaves CJ Sapong, who seems likely (maybe even certain) to start on the wing, and Elliot Collier, as the only other forwards on the roster currently. Beric has spent the last few years as a decently productive forward in Ligue 1 with AS Saint-Etienne after a breakout season in 2014-15 where he scored 27 goals for Rapid Vienna.
Beric has never been a star for Saint-Etienne. He’s had 11, 8, 9, and 11 goals in all competitions the last 4 seasons. That doesn’t seem all that impressive, except he’s only exceeded 1500 minutes in one of those years (2062 minutes in 2016/17).
I’m not sure why he found minutes hard to come by, but his 0.51 goals/96 over that period would’ve been top 15 in MLS in 2019.
Can they defend?
I’ll say it again. Everyone says finishing was the thing that made the Fire missed the playoffs, even though they were only 1 goal below their xG for 2019, but it was more likely the seven goals above their xGA that ruined their season. Unfortunately, this is also the area where it seems like the least has been done to improve. Losing McCarty and Schweinsteiger almost certainly makes the defense worse, and they haven’t really been replaced.
I asked a friend who is a Fire supporter what his lineup prediction was and for the backline, he wrote “Defense?”
There are a lot of different things the Fire could do with their lineup defensively. They don’t lack versatility, it’s just hard to be confident that the talent is there. Left-back seems solid with Bornstein and Navarro competing for minutes there. Francisco Calvo is probably the only defender I can confidently place, as he’s basically locked in at CB. Johan Kappelhof is good, but it’s unclear if he will be at CB or RB, then RB is a huge question mark that so far in the preseason has been answered by Jeremiah Gutjahr (a winger/LB) and Brandt Bronico, the presumptive starting defensive midfielder. If the Fire bring in Gimenez in the midfield, that increases the likelihood of Bronico seeing a lot of minutes at right-back. If Kappelhof is at right-back, then there’s a question mark in the middle. Homegrown signing Nicholas Slonina started there against Nashville this past weekend, but he’s 18 and that would be surprising. Jonathan Campbell is on trial, and that’s fine as depth, but if he’s starting that’s probably not great.
Update: The Fire announced the signing of Boris Sekulić last week, which provides some clarity on the backline. Sekulic has played across the backline, but the vast majority of his appearances have been as a right-back. Bringing in a presumed starter at right-back means the Kappelhof almost certainly becomes Calvo's partner in the middle. Whether they will be good remains a question, but at least there is some clarity in where people will play.
Will the kids play?
This question probably isn’t a season-defining one, but a curious one nonetheless. The Fire have a few talented youngsters who could get minutes this year depending on signings that may or may not happen.
Nicholas Slonina is an 18-year old homegrown player who probably isn’t quite ready for MLS, but if the Fire don’t sign any more center backs then he’s either 3rd or 4th at that spot and will likely see minutes.
Mauricio Pineda is another homegrown signing, a midfielder/defender who played 4 years at North Carolina and was the Tar Heels’ captain last year. Pineda has started both of the Fire’s preseason games at defensive midfield, which could mean nothing because it’s preseason, or could be a sign of a chance at big minutes. If Bronico ends up at RB, then Pineda, for now, looks like a possible starter.
2020 Expectations
Best case scenario: Beric and Medran are really good, Mihailovic (and maybe Bronico) take the next step, the Fire add a couple of pieces, including a high-level defender, and the Fire are a playoff team, probably 5th-7th in the East. They use that as a building block and are competing near the top of the East in 2021.
Worst case: Beric doesn’t score, Mihailovic and Bronico stagnate, and the defense is one of the worst in MLS.
The big asterisk in much of this is that the MLS transfer window doesn’t close until May, so the Fire could still address some of these big questions with some signings. Also, it’s MLS so even if they do nothing, struggle through the first half, they could make a splash in the summer window and make a late run at the playoffs.