Offseason Outlook: Real Salt Lake
/By Kevin Minkus (@kevinminkus)
In my SKC offseason article I wrote of Kansas City that “In MLS 3.0, lacking an elite striker up top is a little bit inexcusable.” Real Salt Lake over the last five seasons deserve at least as much criticism as Sporting. Since 2015, RSL has only three double digit goal scorers - Damir Kreilach in 2018, and Albert Rusnak in 2018 and 2019. Neither of those two are a true striker. Sam Johnson, RSL’s most likely candidate, registered just 0.41 xG per 90 last season, which is roughly 2019 BWP, Tesho Akindele, and Ola Kamara levels. That’s not great! And he led the team in that stat! The only three teams with a worse best forward last year were Dallas, Montreal, and Vancouver.
I do think part of this is by design. RSL are extremely conservative with their passing close to goal:
Rather than trying to slip passes to their number nine to create high quality opportunities, they settle more often for speculative shots from distance. So their number nine rarely gets the ball. Johnson was 27th in the league in touch percentage among all forwards with more than 1000 minutes last season. Adding a more creative, dynamic passer to hit those passes might change that.
The advantage, I think, to not attempting those risky passes, is that RSL rarely give up the ball in scenarios that lead to transition opportunities for the opposing team. 2019 Real Salt Lake were superb at preventing counter attacks, and were similarly excellent in terms of the rate at which opposing teams were able to move the ball from their own third into the final third. A lot of this was on Everton Luiz’s ability as a ball winner - he won 65% of his tackles last year. And Justen Glad’s ability in the open field. But RSL too are setting themselves up with their offense to deny high quality opportunities in transition.
Finding the golden mean here is difficult. A little bit less conservative passing and RSL probably create a few more good chances, at the cost of giving up more counterattacks. Real Salt Lake, though, are typically at the bottom of the league in xG per shot. They could stand to play a little riskier around the box. Freddy Juarez and Elliot Fall may choose to move them more in that direction, but, with a small sample size caveat, Salt Lake were actually more conservative around the box under Juarez than they had been under Mike Petke.
I wonder if there’s a way to maintain that principle - “don’t allow high quality attacks in transition” - under a tactical system that gives them more options for creating chances. Maybe a 3-5-2, with Rusnak or Kreilach as a floating second forward, gives them that. RSL may have the personnel on the backline for it this season. Regardless, it’ll be an interesting tactical note to watch.
Let’s talk about the rest of the team.
Areas of Depth
Centerback: A corps of Justen Glad, Nedum Onuoha, Marcelo Silva, and Erik Holt is really solid. Along with Everton Luiz, they formed the spine of a defense that allowed the third fewest xG in MLS last season. Onuoha is on the wrong side of the aging curve, and Silva is occasionally fragile. But Glad is still improving - he’s 22, and hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. And Holt got some run with RSL in his rookie season, and was instrumental to the Monarchs’ championship run. He may be ready to step into a starting role in 2020. Nick Besler is a depth guy who can play here, as well.
Areas of Need
Goalkeeper: MLS legend Nick Rimando’s departure leaves either Andrew Putna or David Ochoa with big gloves to fill. Who the first choice is not quite clear. Putna got five games in 2019. Ochoa is fresh off a championship in USL with the Real Monarchs. Neither is clearly starter quality (Ochoa definitely looks to be on his way there, though). If Juarez isn’t sold on either, it wouldn’t hurt to bring in a veteran presence.
Left back: Currently RSL only really have Donny Toia on the left side of the defense. He’s fine there, but they could certainly stand to upgrade, and they’ll need additional depth regardless. There’s a rumor they’ve been looking at Swedish left back Elliot Kack, so it does appear that the FO is planning to fill that hole.
Holding Mid: Kyle Beckerman, legend that he is, will be 38 in April. He is slowing down, and he’s not covering much ground in the midfield anymore. His missed tackles per 90 are on an upward trajectory since 2016:
The team is still negotiating with him over whether he’ll be back. If he’s not, Damir Kreilach can probably play that role, with Besler and Justin Portillo backing him up. But Juarez might prefer Kreilach up top. He did start the playoff game against Seattle there, after all. If that’s the case, RSL needs a TAM caliber box-to-box mid to pair with Luiz.
Winger: With Bofo Saucedo gone, RSL are light on the wings. Their likely starters, Corey Baird and Jefferson Savarino, have actually both gotten worse year over year in xG + xA per 90. That’s a concerning trend for a team focused on developing youth. Adding a creative winger capable of hitting the types of dangerous passes that RSL’s front line refuses to hit would raise the team’s ceiling. They are linked to Anderson Julio, who might be that player.
Outlook
Real Salt Lake has a lot of youth across the roster, many of whom are guys that got minutes with the Monarchs championship team. Those players’ development this season will be key to RSL’s long-term outlook, and if some of those players hit in 2020, RSL will be a dangerous team right now. To be more assured of that, though, they probably need a chance creator on the wing, a Beckerman replacement, and maybe a better center forward. In the meantime, RSL’s strategy of limiting transition opportunities, and their excellent and mostly returning defense, probably raises their floor. The foundation is there for a strong season, but they need to add a little more talent at the top.