Offseason Outlook: Chicago Fire
/By Eric Walcott (@ericwsoccer)
The only thing the Fire have handled worse than their rebrand this offseason is building their actual soccer team. Quick status update on the soccer side of things for the Chicago Fire: Sporting Director? Nope. Coach? Vacant. Designated players? Zero.
Here’s the thing that makes the least sense in all of this: if you look at underlying metrics, the Fire were really good in 2019. They probably should have made some minor adjustments heading into 2020, maybe a star signing to replace Bastian Schweinsteiger, and then rolled into Soldier Field as a really good soccer team.
Here’s a quick look at the Fire’s potential lineup as it stands
The Chicago Fire finished 8th in the East in 2019 despite an xGD of 14.8, which the best in the conference and 2nd only to LAFC in Major League Soccer. That sounds like a team you tweak, not one you blow up. Instead, Nemanja Nikolic, who was 10th in expected goals per 96 minutes and was the 2017 Golden Boot winner, is gone. Aleksandar Katai, one of the top wingers in MLS in terms of xG+xA per 96 minutes last season, is gone. Dax McCarty was traded away for almost nothing. Nicolas Gaitan is gone. Even promising prospects like Grant Lillard and Stefan Cleveland are gone. That’s all without mentioning that head coach Veljko Paunovic was fired. Paunovic’s removal of all of those makes the most sense, but beyond that, the Fire blew up what looked like a very solid core of their team and have done almost nothing to rebuild it.
Areas of depth-ish: Centerback, Left Fullback
Between Francisco Calvo, Johan Kappelhof, and Marcelo, the Fire appear to have the middle of their defense fairly settled, at least compared to the rest of the roster. Yes, Calvo and Kappelhof spent portions of last season playing outside back, but both also have spent significant time in the middle. Schweinsteiger also spent a significant amount of time at CB last season, which may suggest the team doesn’t think there are two starting CBs in the Calvo, Kappelhof, and Marcelo group, in which case, expect a new signing there, but it’s a position with three guys who have all started in MLS, which on this roster makes it a position of depth.
Between Jonathan Bornstein and Calvo backing him up, the left-back spot actually seems fairly secure. Bornstein didn’t set the world on fire last season after joining, but he’s still an adequate MLS defender.
Areas of need: Goalkeeper, Defense, Midfield, Attack, Head Coach, Front Office
If the Fire hadn’t blown it all up, this list would be much shorter. It isn’t all doom and gloom. There are still talented players on this roster. Przemyslaw Frankowksi and CJ Sapong were great acquisitions in 2019 that will be expected to do a lot in 2020. Djordje Mihailovic is still around and will hope to take another step forward in his career. Alvaro Medran is the one significant addition that’s been made in the midfield this offseason. Obviously, though, there’s still a lot of gaps. Here are a few additions that seem key to making this a successful offseason:
Goalkeeper
Neither Kenneth Kronholm nor David Ousted were very good last season. Ousted was marginally better by G-xG, but appears not to be returning. That’s probably fine, as the Fire should be looking for a big upgrade at GK either way. The Fire gave up 47 goals in 2019 against 40.2 xGA. That’s not all on goalkeeping, but a better shot-stopper that can organize a defense could be a significant boost.
Defense
Go get a lockdown, solid CB and move Kappelhof to right-back permanently, or go get a really good right-back and keep Kappelhof at CB. I don’t know which of those two would be better, but I’ve seen enough to know the back and forth isn’t helping. If the Fire are going to make one move on their backline this offseason, it should be for that purpose.
Midfield
Midfield is probably the area with the most need for the Fire, even with Mihailovic, Brandt Bronico, Alvaro Medran, it’s an area with some talent and depth. The problem is that unless Medran or Mihailovic create chances at a level far above anything they’ve done to date, and Bronico makes a significant leap, there’s not enough defending or attacking in that group to be a balanced midfield. So far, each of those players looks like a third midfielder one might pair with a more purely defensive midfielder and a #10 further forward.
With McCarty and Schweinsteiger gone, defensive midfield is probably the biggest need for the Fire in midfield. It doesn’t look like there’s anyone on the roster who can step into that role and be a starter on a playoff team. Again, if Bronico makes a big leap then maybe he’s that guy, but that seems a risky bet.
There is an even bigger hole in the attack. Nico Gaitan probably didn’t quite live up to expectations, but still contributed 0.51 xG+xA per 96 minutes and nearly three key passes per game. If the Fire see Mihailovic as his replacement, they have to be counting on a significant jump in production.
Attack
Trivia time: Which MLS team had three of the top 20 players in the league last year based on open-play expected goals and assists per 96 minutes? Since this article is about the Fire you probably guessed it, but yes, it was the Fire. The only other team to do that was LAFC. Katai (10th) and Nikolic (12th) are gone from that trio. Only Frankowski (20th) is back. Want to guess the only winger ahead of Katai on that list? It was Carlos Vela. I’m baffled as to why the Fire wouldn’t bring back one of the best wingers in Major League Soccer, who was on a TAM deal.
Here’s a graphical look at how Katai and Nikolic stacked up against their colleagues in 2019:
So yeah, the Fire decided that Katai and Nikolic needed replacing and left themselves a pretty massive task for one offseason. Before anyone says that Nikolic needed to go because he didn’t actually score many goals in 2019 and the Fire have Sapong anyways, let me offer two responses to that. First, out of three seasons in MLS, 2019 was the first time Nikolic scored below his xG for the season. It seems more likely that 2019 was the anomaly rather than he’s suddenly not good at putting the ball in the net. Second, (and kind of third, I guess) C.J. Sapong mostly played on the wing in 2019, not up top, and despite scoring 13 goals (only one more than Katai), he offers almost no other useful contribution on a soccer field. I’ll just leave this here:
This should have been an offseason of optimism for the Chicago Fire. They had the foundations of a really good team in 2019, and a downtown move, new coach, and a couple of key signings could have made this a team to get excited about for 2020. That’s still a possible outcome of this offseason, but there’s a long, long way to go and so far, more questions than answers.