Los Angeles Football Club: Postseason Previewew

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When I wrote the LAFC playoff preview in 2018, this is why I said LAFC would not win MLS Cup:

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2018 LAFC turned out to be just like 2017 Atlanta United, bowing out in the first round of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. In 2019, the comparisons with Atlanta United continue. Second-year club LAFC not only caught, but surpassed the 2018 MLS Cup winner’s marks in 2019. LAFC exceeded their points (72 to 69; 2018 RBNY had 71) and Carlos Vela surpassed Josef Martinez’ shiny new single-season goal scoring record by three goals (34). LAFC also tied the single season goals record (with the 1998 L.A. Galaxy) with 85, set the best goal differential with 48, bettering that same Galaxy team by seven. And Vela finished with 10 primary assists (the only ones we count at ASA). For comparison, the only other player with 10 or more assists and over 20 goals in our dataset was Sebastian Giovinco in 2015.

I also mentioned in last year’s playoff preview that “LAFC are a Good Soccer Team, often a Very Good Soccer Team, but they are rarely a Great Soccer Team. They are not #1 on any advanced metric in MLS and rarely #1 on any metric in the Western Conference.” Someone was listening because they fixed that problem and finished first in the Western Conference in the following metrics that I’m tracking (and probably a bunch I’m not):

  • Goals For

  • Goals Against

  • Goal Differential

  • xG

  • xGA

  • Cumulative xGD

  • Head-to-head xGD

  • Cumulative Chance xPG

  • Head-to-head Chance xPG

  • Shots For

  • Shots Against

  • Shots on Target For

  • Shots on Target Against

So, honestly, what can I say about them that hasn’t already been said?

Superman Flies Away

Christian Ramirez started the first three games of the season, and 10 of the first 13, scoring four goals along with two assists in 1005 minutes. It wasn’t enough, and LAFC proceeded to trade him to Houston for $250K in allocation money. Over the same stretch of the season, Adama Diomande produced the same number of goals on far fewer minutes. Once Diomande was healthy, Ramirez became expendable.

Believing that Diomande is your guy is fine and all, except...

Some Misfortune Strikes

Diomande voluntarily admitted himself into MLS’s Substance Abuse and Behavioral Health (SABH) program on September 20. He has now returned just in time for the playoffs.

Walker Zimmerman has been a rock in the back this season, but withdrew from USMNT camp due to a concussion. His status at the moment is unclear for the playoffs.

Mark-Anthony Kaye exited the recent CanMNT 2-0 win over the USMNT with an apparent hamstring injury. More recent updates have indicated it was a strain, which may be good news for his chances to appear in the playoffs, if perhaps not against the Galaxy.

These things happen in threes it seems. For LAFC, after dealing with an injury to Vela in September, these October incidents have affected each area of their core. And without clear updates on Zimmerman and Kaye, it’s anyone’s guess at this point if they are expected to be healthy enough to start in Thursday’s conference semifinals. Diomande seems a more likely start. LAFC’s dominance appeared to wane with Vela assuming the number 9 role, and assuming Diomande is able to jump back in the striker role means Vela can get back to his preferred right winger role.

Lots of Goals from Lots of Places

Not only did Vela score 34 goals, but you can see in the chart below how he did an amazing job delivering throughout the course of the entire season, not just in small bursts. Supporting him in the scoring role was Diego Rossi who is the left hook to Vela’s right hand jab (except that Vela is left-footed, but he plays on the right...never mind). Rossi would have been the top scorer on any other team, except the Galaxy and Atlanta United, and he also added six primary assists.

Add in Diomande and Latif Blessing’s emergence as a central attacker, and you have a very dangerous attacking core.

One thing you may notice from this chart is how much the goals from everyone except Vela virtually disappeared over the last month of the season. This is something which will need to be addressed if LAFC are to move forward in the playoffs.

Changes in Central Midfield

While he continuously rotated many of his wingers and central midfield last season, Bob Bradley has found the combination that seems to work. Rossi left and Vela right seem very set if Diomande can go. Edward Atuesta has become the shining star of the central midfield in 2019, and his stability and consistency is maybe the biggest difference-making improvement outside of Vela compared to 2018.

Bradley tinkered with his formations through much of 2018, but he’s opted for a 4-3-3 in all but four games in 2019. Looking at Chance xPG distribution (weighted possession using non-shot expected goals) in Bradley’s 4-3-3 we can see who is the most valuable creator of dangerous possessions this season compared to last.

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You can see from these Chance xPG contribution charts how much Atuesta’ involvement has increased in 2019. While Vela and Rossi get all the credit for the goals, and Latif Blessing has been a revelation in his new role, Atuesta is arguably the most important player at getting the ball to the point of a shot from one of LAFC’s stars. He’s also considered a very important player on the defensive side of the ball this season. As Bobby Warshaw points out he’s quite possibly the best defensive midfielder in the league this season covering a ton of ground to make tackles.

You can also see from the 2019 chart this how important Mark-Anthony Kaye has been this season. LAFC lost him last season to a season-ending injury, and it can be argued they weren’t quite as good after that. Fortunately for Bradley he has the ability to replace Kaye with Lee Nguyen, and with the emergence of other players, LAFC should be able to manage Kaye’s absence for any games necessary.


As Joseph Lowry wrote about in The Athletic a week back, LAFC is excellent at playing the ball between the lines, in the channels and half-spaces, that create opportunities in the attack. They have a very balanced 4-3-3, but you can see how high Rossi and Vela can get in their average touch locations, as well as their outside backs, typically Steven Beitashour and Jordan Harvey. Bradley likes his team to emulate Barcelona and play “The Beautiful Game”. This quite often pays off in the attack, but it can also leave the team vulnerable to balls over the top on a quick transition. Look for the Galaxy and others (if LAFC makes it out of the conference semis) to look to exploit these areas with their talent and pace.

THE SQUAD

You may be looking at that lineup and saying “sure if everyone is healthy, that’s the no-brainer lineup”. But you are not Bob Bradley. He has only played this exact lineup twice this season. Yes, twice. The depth and the quality of that depth that LAFC possesses gives Bradley the opportunity to play matchups, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. While the departures of Andre Horta and the aforementioned Ramirez make the offensive side a bit thinner, particularly if Kaye is unable to go, Bradley has used several defensive combinations this season. Although Danilo Silva was lost to season-ending surgery, Tristan Blackmon, Diego Palacios, Mohamed El-Munir, and Dejan Jakovic have provided Bradley with some depth throughout the season. Throughout all these changes, LAFC were able to maintain their league-leading goals against total.

Tyler Miller improved on his 2018 debut in 2019, finishing sixth in the league in for goals-expected goals (G-xG) with -2.8. That indicates he saved almost three goals above what would be expected based on typical league performance given the shots he faced. While he doesn’t touch the ball as much as most keepers in MLS, his expected passing shows that he was adequate in 2019.

Why Los Angeles FC Won’t Make MLS Cup

Zlatan.

Why Los Angeles FC Will Make MLS Cup

If any team should make and win MLS Cup, it’s obviously Los Angeles Football Club. So long as they win against the Galaxy and continue winning, they will have home field advantage for the entire playoffs. Their dominant performance over the course of the season has our model showing them as a 63% favorite to win it all, with 75% to make the finals. 

While nothing is a sure bet, if LAFC are able to use their two week break to get healthy and reset their attack to be as efficient as it was before September, they are the best bet to make it all the way. And if they can, let the comparisons with 2018 Atlanta United continue.