Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles FC

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It’s hard to feel, well, anything really about how LAFC finished in 2019. You don’t exactly feel sorry for the MLS juggernaut that came to conquer all and lay claim to ‘greatest MLS team ever’, but didn’t. Carlos Vela and Bob Bradley seemed so cocksure and full of swagger that their inevitable comeuppance at the hands of the Seattle Sounders was almost satisfying for MLS neutrals. For LAFC fans, it would certainly be disappointing if they hadn’t be treated to so many other wonderful delights in the 2019 season. Ricky Bobby / Ron Burgundy / More Cowbell United earned Supporters Shield on the back of an outrageous record-setting 72 point season, and they did it with a record-shattering Goal Differential of +48. The previous mark of +41 had been set by the LA Galaxy way back in 1998. Their star player won the MVP award while breaking the goal scoring record, as Vela found the net an outrageous 34 times. And all that, in just their second year of existence. So if 3252 members are looking for tea and sympathy amongst other MLS fans, they ain’t gonna get it.

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Offseason Outlook: New York Red Bulls

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Offseason Outlook: New York Red Bulls

The New York Red Bulls have a strong developmental and tactical system in place, from the first team to the academy, allowing them to maintain a high floor performance-wise, as the losses of several high-profile players have not negatively affected them as much as expected. However, the team’s lack of spending (3rd lowest salary outlay in the league) on high-end talent appeared to catch up with them this season, as their point total plummeted from 71 to 48. More importantly in terms of future performance, its xP dropped from 58.8 to 47.6. Additionally, its xGD dropped from the second highest in the league in 2018—18.6—to right around the equator (3.8). In English, the Red Bulls went from being one of the league’s elite teams to one that was merely average. With major contracts like Bradley Wright-Phillips’ coming off the books this offseason, as well as the potential departure of stalwart and 2018 MLS Defender of the Year Aaron Long, the Red Bulls have the opportunity to retool their roster significantly to complement their steady pipeline of MLS-ready academy players. Either that, or they are looking at a severe personnel crisis that could see them lose ground to more profligate clubs.

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Offseason Outlook: Vancouver Whitecaps

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Offseason Outlook: Vancouver Whitecaps

Let’s just say 2019 was not kind to the Vancouver Whitecaps or their supporters. Vancouver finished last in the Western Conference, ahead of only FC Cincinnati in the overall MLS standings. There were some positives, such as the development of Derek Cornelius and Maxime Crepeau looking like a decent goalkeeper with the potential to improve. That said, our expected goals model actually suggests that the Whitecaps did better in 2019 than they would have been expected to, picking up 34 points against an expected 30.7, so...not great.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Timbers

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Timbers

Whether or not we’re ready to admit it, The Diego Era in Portland is nearly at its end. Each season, even as Valeri and Chara continue to prove they are less impacted by time than the rest of us, we see the sun setting on the horizon. It may not happen in 2020, but sooner rather than later we’ll be reading about the next iteration of the Timbers.

Still, though we feel the darkness creeping in, this is not the end. We must cherish our time spent in The Diego Era, now more than ever. In a way it is easier now, knowing our time here is limited. And although the team has a Designated Player spot open, until the day of reckoning arrives, Portland’s roster will see only changes around the edges.

With that said, let’s get this out of the way…

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Offseason Outlook: NYCFC

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Offseason Outlook: NYCFC

You’ve got to hand it to NYCFC’s new sporting director David Lee: the guy’s set himself up for success here. For a lot of young sports execs, making the leap from XO to HMFIC means taking a move to some club mired deep in Trust the Process mode. Not so for Lee, who ran point on Claudio Reyna’s personnel decisions the last few years and now inherits what he calls “the strongest roster of players we’ve ever had.”

If only they had a coach. Barring some winter sales, NYCFC’s opening day eighteen looks just about set, which makes it all the more important to give whoever’s going to replace Dome Torrent time to size things up and make a few signings of his own. Whether or not those moves involve much money, they could help shape next season’s tactics and determine whether this team will have the depth to juggle CCL and MLS next spring.

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Offseason Outlook: Nashville SC

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As expected for a club building a roster from scratch, Nashville SC have been busy in the offseason. The debut side added three players in the 2019 Expansion Draft and traded for three more immediately following, and just recently signed four players from their USL roster to MLS contracts, bringing the total number of rostered players to 21.

Under head coach Gary Smith in USL, Nashville primarily played a 4-2-3-1 / 4-4-1-1 hybrid that had the 10 operate in a free role in attack and push up with the striker in defense. Smith also used a 3-4-1-2 on multiple occasions, and while that may continue, the roster construction seems to date lends itself to the former option.

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Offseason Outlook: Columbus Crew

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Offseason Outlook: Columbus Crew

The Columbus Crew had a disappointing season in 2019, finishing 3rd to last in the East. Unlike the stability of last season, the roster is showing more turnover than the club has seen in many years. While most positions have starters already in place, the Crew lack depth in most positional groups.

Here’s how the Crew’s roster stands with a projected depth chart in the Crew’s traditional 4-2-3-1 formation…

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rapids

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rapids

With the options deadline passing, we now have a really good idea of what the Colorado Rapids front office thinks about where the roster is right now.

Here is a look at the depth chart right now. I picked a 4-4-1-1 not because I know what Robin Fraser wants, but because it's basically the way the players are best aligned right now.

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CBA Talk: Why it's so good to own a sports team

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CBA Talk: Why it's so good to own a sports team

In September a portion of the Chicago Fire was sold, valuing the team at $400 million. In a sports world where large numbers float by with regularity, another big dollar sign went largely undigested. In 2007, Forbes began to publish valuations of MLS franchises, including the Fire. The first valuation estimated the team was worth $41 million, and so the investors appear to have returned almost ten times their money since then. That’s a 21% annual rate of return, which is a remarkable number for a twelve-year period, especially one that included the great recession of our lifetime. Over that same period, the Average Pat might have seen returns in the 6% range. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had an annual growth rate of 6.1% from the end of 2007 to September of this year, while the S&P 500 trailed slightly at 6.0% over the same time period.

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