Offseason Outlook: Vancouver Whitecaps

By Eric Walcott (@ericwsoccer)

Let’s just say 2019 was not kind to the Vancouver Whitecaps or their supporters. Vancouver finished last in the Western Conference, ahead of only FC Cincinnati in the overall MLS standings. There were some positives, such as the development of Derek Cornelius and Maxime Crepeau looking like a decent goalkeeper with the potential to improve. That said, our expected goals model actually suggests that the Whitecaps did better in 2019 than they would have been expected to, picking up 34 points against an expected 30.7, so...not great.

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To be fair, not much was expected for the 2019 season. Marc dos Santos took over a team that was in complete disarray following the 2018 season and in need of direction. The Whitecaps made a ton of changes to their roster heading into the season, and while the new players were a mixed bag in terms of success, it was apparent early that it was taking them a long time to gel as a team. Even as they settled, it was clear there were significant holes in the roster construction.

The Whitecaps lined up in a 4-3-3 pretty much exclusively in 2019, so barring any significant tactical shift from Marc dos Santos, that’s probably what we can expect for 2020. This lineup is my best guess at how things stand today, though nothing would surprise me in terms of changes to this roster.

Area of Depth

The only area that could seriously be considered a position of depth and strength is center back, and that depends on making Erik Godoy’s loan a permanent transfer. If Godoy sticks around (and all signs point to that happening) then even with Doniell Henry heading to South Korea the Whitecaps still have three solid MLS CBs in Godoy, Cornelius, and Jasser Khemiri.

Obviously, a lot of work needs to be done to improve on a defense that was 21st in MLS in xGA (58.07 xGA), but starting with a foundation of three solid CBs is a good place to begin. It’s also fair to expect each of those defenders to continue to improve, as it’s a fairly young group. Godoy is the oldest of the three at 26 years old, while both Cornelius and Kjemiri just turned 22 in November. They’ll probably make some mistakes in 2020 that can be chalked up to youth, but if you’re looking towards the future, this is a group to feel good about.

Areas of Need

Everywhere but center back, and they probably shouldn’t say no even if an upgrade is available there? The easy answer is that the Whitecaps were very bad in 2019 and could probably improve at every single position and should cast a wide net in looking to upgrade their lineup.

More specifically, the Whitecaps need people that can create and score goals. Vancouver was last in MLS in expected goals, with just 31.23 in 2019. There is some talent there, but it definitely needs bolstering. Yordy Reyna is clearly a talented player capable of making things happen, but his strengths don’t seem to match how dos Santos wants the Whitecaps to play. After putting up 0.6 xG+xA per 96 minutes in 2018, that fell to 0.29/96 minutes in 2019 as Reyna’s expected assists plummeted from 0.32 per 96 to 0.1 per 96 minutes. Maybe that’s largely influenced by not having Kei Kamara around to lob crosses at, but it seems like it’s more than that. Michaell Chirinos looked exciting in limited minutes, and Theo Bair looks like a decent prospect at forward, but that’s about the extent of it. Fredy Montero doesn’t look like a starting MLS striker anymore, and the midfield offered almost nothing in the way of attack.

It’s probably a stretch, but if the Whitecaps want to have an attack capable of scoring enough goals to turn things around in 2020, they probably need to add a starting quality center forward, a winger who can compete with Reyna and Chirinos, and a creative attacking midfielder to pull the strings in the attack. That’s not an easy task. Signing Lucas Cavallini, the Canadian forward who scored 28 goals in 81 games for Puebla in Liga MX, would be a huge step in the right direction. That said, without someone to create chances, Cavallini's potential impact may be limited.

In addition to attacking talent, a strong defensive midfielder who is also a good passer is a must for this team. Hwang In-boem looked good in 2019 and improved as the season went on, but he’s an eight, not a six or a 10, and for this team to be at its best they need someone behind him with more defensive responsibility as well as someone to bear the creative responsibility.

Maybe it’s a tactical thing, but it also seems like picking up a few elite passers would improve the Whitecaps defense. Vancouver was actually best in MLS in terms of expected goals per shot conceded, but they gave up over 100 more shots than anyone else. It doesn’t matter how good you are at forcing teams to take lower percentage shots if you concede enough of them, you’re going to give up goals. I think improving their possession by picking up an elite midfield distributor would vastly improve their defensive metrics.

Outlook

If ownership gives Marc dos Santos the freedom to build this team the way he wants and if dos Santos learns from some of the roster-building mistakes he made in 2019 (he identified a few himself, so it seems likely), then Vancouver should be an improved team in 2020 and on their way to better places. I’m still skeptical they will make enough right moves to be a playoff team in 2020, but there should at least be improvement. In a best case scenario, they sign four starting quality players and two of them turn out to be elite. In that case, I think Vancouver is a good team in 2020. Worst case, they sign a couple new players who turn out to be duds and 2020 is a lot like 2019.