How it Happened: Week Ten

Another weekend, another bunch of ones and zeroes on the scoreboards for the games I checked out. The season's a quarter done now for just about every team, and reality is starting to set in that playoffs are only going to be a dream for some this year. Still, MLS is a league of incredible parity and almost everyone still harbors dreams of the postseason, no matter how realistic they are at the moment.

Portland Timbers 1 - 1 LA Galaxy

Stat that told the story for both teams: 2 goals, 1 uncalled red card on a breakaway in 2nd half stoppage time

It's nearly impossible to analyze this game without spending a bulk of your attentions on second half stoppage time, when both goals were scored. Not only that, but LA's Juninho had a breakaway chance to put the game away and was bundled over with no foul called. All in all, it was a pretty incredible conclusion to a game that was fairly entertaining, if not particularly well-played. To some degree, it was more of the same for both teams: the Galaxy struggled to finish the chances they were able to create, and Portland looked out of sorts and a little slow compared to last year's high-octane outfit.

I want to spend a paragraph here talking a little about the apparent tactical trends of the league at the moment. For the last couple years, it seemed like the formation en vogue was the high-pressing 4-3-3: Kansas City and Portland were the most notable success stories using this setup. But this year, it appears the trend has shifted to the 4-4-2 with a diamond midfield, a la Real Salt Lake. It seems like every team in the league has at least experimented with it this year, from LA to Colorado to DC. The MLSSoccer.com March to the Match podcast did a great feature on this tactical trend a few weeks back detailing some of the pros and cons of the formation.

Anyway, this game seemed like a pretty decent case study with these two formations facing off with one another: Portland's 4-3-3 against LA's diamond midfield. It's my opinion that the narrow diamond midfield does a great job of neutralizing what made the Timbers' 4-3-3 so effective last year - that's part of why RSL just seemed to have Caleb Porter's number last year. Portland was at their best last year mainly because of two guys: Diego Chara and Will Johnson, who played as a double pivot and covered more ground than the Trans-Pacific Railroad. However, the Galaxy's narrow midfield boxes that double pivot in with four central mids who are all tucked inside, limiting the number of balls Chara & Johnson can win and thereby limiting Portland's possession. There are plenty of other reasons the Timbers haven't been great so far this year, but it's a trend worth watching as they try to turn their season around.

Columbus Crew 0 - 1 Vancouver Whitecaps

Stat that told the story for Columbus: 90.33% of minutes this season have been played by starting eleven

It's no secret that Columbus started out this season like gangbusters and have since played more like busts. The reason for this is inherently simple: they only have one way of playing. Every single game from Columbus is basically the same: they play the same guys in the same roles and try the same things. It caught teams by surprise in the first few games, but now that the opposition knows what's coming (short passes out of the back, fullbacks getting way forward, etc.) it's gotten a lot easier to beat. And now it's up to coach Gregg Berhalter to make some adjustments and at least give the Crew a plan B so this losing skid doesn't continue.

Stat that told the story for Vancouver: average age of midfield and forward: 23 years old

Vancouver has sneakily been one of the surprise stories of the 2014 MLS season. Everyone knew they had a good deal of young talent on the squad, but nobody was sure how the chemistry would work out under first-year coach Carl Robinson. So far, returns have been impressive. Not only has Robinson set the team up in a position to be successful tactically, but he's handed over a ton of responsibility to the youngsters to great effect. With veterans Kenny Miller gone and Nigel Reo-Coker perhaps on the way out, even more of the load is going to be heaped onto the 25-and-under players. During this victory, the only midfielder or forward in the starting eleven over 25 was Pedro Morales (28). And even when they made subs, they brought on 20-year-old Omar Salgado and 21-year-old Russell Teibert - I'd say the future is bright in Vancouver.

Philadelphia Union 0 - 1 DC United

Stat that told the story for DC: wide presence of the forwards

It's interesting that a lot of season previews of DC United focused on if the wide play would be good enough to get quality service for new striker Eddie Johnson. I say this because DC has been as good, if not better, as anyone could've hoped, despite the presence of roughly zero wide midfielders and zero Eddie Johnson goals. There are obviously a few reasons they've been so good, but chiefly among them is that this is Fabian Espindola's team. He's played better this season than I ever remember him looking in Salt Lake as the focal point of United's attack, orchestrating everything and creating a lot of chances. He does this by floating to the wide areas of the field to provide some width to DC's narrow formation, as his heat map above shows (EJ's actually pretty good at this too, particularly when holding the ball up).

Stat that told the story for Philadelphia: 647,428 times caught ball-watching this season*

Philadelphia was everyone's darling in the first few weeks of the season. All their new acquisitions looked really impressive, they had a young and improving defense and some talent up top that was sure to start banging in the goals soon. Fast forward a couple months, and the bottom has fallen out. This loss was their ninth game without a win, they've switched formations like four times hoping for a spark, and their coach might get fired soon. So what's wrong? Lots of things. But #1 in my book is simply that the Union didn't seem that interested in playing soccer against DC this weekend. I can't tell you how many times I've seen Philly midfielders or defenders or really anyone just watch an opposing player run by them or pass the ball by them with little to no contesting. And this isn't a problem for one or two players, it's the entire team. Sorry to be such a rah-rah coach type who says they just need to try harder, but the Union need to be more active, or engaged, or try harder....whatever wording works best.

*this is only an approximation because I couldn't find Opta's information on this

MLS Week 11 My PWP-Pick-List - Can the Fire take 3 from Sporting?

Last week there were some outrageous results - Chivas taking three points in Colorado and Chicago taking three points in New York - wow - who'da guessed that? For me both were stunners - and if I don't mind saying - very timely, as was the San Jose 2-1 win versus FC Dallas...  all told I was five for 12 last week excluding the Canada Cup games.

So what's in store for this week and weekend?  Any preordained stunners to consider, hard to say, and with some star players moving to the USMNT camp soon there will be some teams working really hard to fill gaps.

For me - this is when a systematic approach brings value provided players minimize mistakes in critical areas.  Some teams, it seems, this year are being plagued by mistakes; two come to mind, the Portland Timbers and the Philadelphia Union.

Both teams are performing well in attacking and defending indicators, as a whole, but the results just aren't there - with the Timbers it's about individual mistakes and according to some the same can be said for Philadelphia.

And if you recall from my Expected Wins article, the line between winning, losing and drawing is really, really fine...

So forward into the season both Sporting and Philadelphia have two games this week; is your fantasy team set up to support that potential for more points?

Sporting KC at home to Philadelphia:  I'd expect this is a statement game for the Union - some members of the press have been rating the Union pretty low of late and their end results seem to support that - but end results aren't necessarily a reflection of a team gone bad; sometimes individual mistakes directly influence the game outcome and somtimes they don't.  However viewed one of the best teams in MLS, in both record and on-pitch performance, is Sporting KC.  Will Collin have the discipline to hold his yellow/red card tendencies in check - can Philadelphia score and prevent goals against.  At this stage, at this time the cards might be right for a stunner like Chicago had last week but I just don't see it happening - Sporting take three points...

Toronto at home to New York:  Is this a classic game of counter attacking for Toronto against a very possession and penetration oriented Red Bulls team?  I think so - and since the Red Bulls defending performance hasn't been the best this year there may be an issue for them in taking three points - but that's with the Reds having fresh legs - the Reds might be going all out in the Canada Cup game three days prior so when all said and done I'm seeing the Red Bulls beat the Reds...

Philadelphia at home to New England:  The games just don't get an easier for the Union as they take on the 2nd best team in the Eastern Conference three days after playing the top team in the Eastern Conference.  Some members of the paid media have been socializing how poor the Union have been in their winless run of late.  Is this another nail in that 'press/media' environment.  For the sake of good team performance I hope not but... when viewing New England so far this year they are also very strong in attack and defending across the pitch.  With all that said Edu will be missing and it's a short time span from Wednesday - tired legs versus fresh legs and no Edu.  In seeing the bad fortune of Philadelphia early this season a reasonable pick is the Revolution to take three points.  I'm not going to do that though - Philadelphia have strong team performances at home; better than the average team performances by the Revolution on the road - I submit Philadelphia takes three points...  perhaps a stunner pick but if mistakes are at a minimum for the Union they can win.

DC United at home to Montreal:  It would appear that the Montreal Impact and DC United have played role reversal this year.  I don't think I see Montreal taking three points against a much improved United - short analysis here - DC United take three points.

Chivas travel to FC Dallas:  Can the Goats pull off another stunner like they did in Colorado?  Wow... if they do poker goes up and Dallas doesn't.  I'm not inclined to think they do given how strong Dallas is in attack - that said they do prove, on occasion, that their central defending area is a bit weak...  All told I don't see Dallas losing - three points should be expected "and" taken here...

Houston at home to LA:  Star players will be missing and I submit the bigger stars will be missing from the Galaxy - not to diminish the great value Davis brings to the USMNT - on the contrary - I think the Houston bench can better support the loss of Davis - and at home to boot.  Houston wins...

Real Salt Lake at home to Colorado:  Can anyone actually beat Real Salt Lake - so far they are unbeaten this year and their internal team attacking and defending performance indicators don't do anything but get better.  Can they win with Saborio, Beckerman and Rimando missing?   Colorado may put up a good fight in this game especially since they were really out of sorts against Chivas - I'd like to pick a draw but won't...  teams don't go into a game looking to draw even though in this instance a draw might actually be what Mastroeni wants :).  With that I opine RSL wins...

Seattle at home to San Jose:  Dempsey and Evans are training at the USMNT camp as is Wondolowski - is Fucito likely to get a start with Wondo gone?  Don't know - but I think the Sounders can afford to replace their two stars a bit better than San Jose... not much else to offer up on this one - big stadium, big crowd and likely 3 big points for Seattle...

Portland at home to Columbus:  Bad form for Columbus of late - team performance has dropped since week 3 and I'm not sure the medicine for that is a trip to Portland and a win-starved Timbers team.  The big question here is the back-four for the Timbers; Harrington is injured still (I think) and ball watching seems to occur frequently at key points - well, every second is a possible key second - their only really key if the mistake leads to a goal.  In this case the ball watching last week was pretty bad - I doubt Porter was happy and it's likely the video and mental part of training was a big focus this week.  I'd expect Portland to come out focused and come out as winners... Timbers take three.

Chicago at home to Sporting KC:  Seems good fortune that Chicago entertain Sporting after the USMNT training starts - two key players out for Sporting and Opara injured means Olum and Collin are the likely pairing if Collin doesn't get another red card earlier in the week.  Chicago are coming off a huge win against a full strength Red Bulls - it's home and Harry Shipp is getting these guys into shape.  Not bad young lad, and Amarikwa has shown good skills as well...   upset for most, but I see the Fire taking three points here...

In closing - I was 5/12 last week (about 45% total so far in my picks) and took a right uppercut when Chivas, Chicago and DC got wins on the road. There's no sure thing in MLS as last week pointed out.  Perhaps fortune smiles more on the home teams this week.

Best, Chris

PWP: Chicago lights up New York while Montreal feels the Impact of Sporting KC

As noted in my headline, the Chicago Fire simply lit the fireworks with the youngster Harry Shipp leading the way; good for him and well done, son!  As for the new leader in Montreal--and ex-Fire coach--things weren't quite as rosy. You'll recall early last week I published this article on MLS Coaches - showing statistics, not pure speculation, on which coaches have teams that aren't performing to standard in MLS at this time.  Frank Klopas was one of those Head Coaches mentioned, and sadly his team was the only team in the bottom four of that list who didn't win this past weekend.

Mark Watson did with San Jose, Frank Yallop did in the obvious thriller in New York, and Wilmer Cabrera saw his Goats absolutely stun Colorado.  Sooner or later the wheat will separate from the chaff.

But back to Chicago.  They didn't take the PWP Attacking Team of the week by much; Sporting KC was a close second while Cabrera and the Goats were 3rd best and New England rounded out the top 4 with that blowout against Seattle.

PWP Attacking Player of Week #10 - Harry Shipp - surprised?  Not likely, for only the second time this year my PWP Attacking Player of the Week was the same as the MLS Player of the Week... as odd as it may sound I take pride in my PWP Players of the Week not matching those from MLSSoccer.com.

A busy day for the young lad, and almost too much information to go into my standard PWP Player of the Week.

That said Sporting KC got back on track with another smashing win against Montreal.  And while they scored three goals what stood out most was their smothering defense; a leader in helping that effort was my PWP Defending Player of the Week; Chance Myers.

Duly noted that some players had some superb passing statistics in this game; here's a diagram of all the successful passes for Sporting against a hapless Montreal side... and even more intriguing is this diagram (also from the OPTA Chalkboard) of all the unsuccessful passes by Sporting.  WOW!  Not sure I've ever seen so sparse a chalkboard as that for unsuccessful passes!

In looking at the defensive side of the pitch Montreal offered up 45 total passes in the Sporting defending third - of which nine were throw-ins... in the area here (just atop the 18 yard box) Montreal had 5 unsuccessful passes and 3 successful passes with two of those successful passes being throw-ins.

Moving on... So this week who's top and who's not in Possession with Purpose after 10 full weeks of play in MLS?

As a reminder, the top five Western Conference teams in the End-of-Season PWP Composite Index were the top five Western Conference teams to make the Playoffs.  In addition, the top five Eastern Conference Teams in the same Index were the top five Eastern Conference teams to make the Playoffs.

Last year's Champion has finally reached the top spot; will they be able to hold on?  I don't know, but still-unbeaten Real Salt Lake has shifted from 7th to 4th this week.

Columbus is starting their painful drop while Seattle, LA, and FC Dallas hover, and New England continues to push higher.

What is unique about this Index is it's not influenced by the "next bright and shiny object" syndrome.  Teams will fade and teams will push higher, but not on a whim; I hate whims...

With respect to the bottom teams in this Index - there is no question that the worst performing team in MLS is Montreal.  I'm not sure how anyone can consider their pathetic team output - across all categories measured - anything other than worst.  

Chivas got a notable win, but one win does not a streak make - falling a bit further this week was Toronto - moving from 6th worst to 4th worst.  Are some other teams in MLS catching on to that 'mistake driven' football that Nelson might be working towards?

Hard to say, but with some MLS stars moving off to prepare for the World Cup, there will definitely be important lineup change, and possible some big changes to this Index in the next six weeks.

In closing:

Another busy week coming with the Canada Cup Championship plus two more games for Sporting and Philadelphia.

Two diagrams for your consideration:

This is the Cumulative PWP Attacking Index after week 10.

Note that the separation between the top attacking team (FC Dallas) and the 10th best attacking team (Vancouver) is 2.4984 - 2.3365 = .1619.  So when you see the overall Composite Index there really isn't that much that separates the tenth place attacking team from the 1st place attacking team...

However, small movement is still expected given that a number of teams will be without some key players for at least 5 weeks - we can hope for more for the USMNT's sake.

This information reflects how well the combined opponents of these teams performs in the Defending PWP.

In looking at the diagram what the last place team offers is that the opponents of Chicago Fire, by and large, possess the ball, pass the ball, penetrate with the ball, take shots with the ball, and score with the ball more than Chicago does... if that trend continues it is likely that Chicago will have a very poor record by the end of the season.

In considering Philadelphia for a minute - they are in the bottom half but they are not being dominated by their opponents - sometimes games won and lost or drawn end up being more about a single mistake or... multiple mistakes as opposed to poor team performance.  It's data like this that tells me, as an analyst, that Hackworth has a reasonable system and plan - its' just not working because something on the pitch is broken.

I think many would offer that is the same case for Portland this year - most know that 5 points were lost due to PK's early this year, and perhaps three points were lost this past Sunday when some players simply forgot that they were soccer players and instead decided to be ball watchers...

All for now, Chris

ASA Podcast XLVI: The One Where We Talk World Cup 30-Man Roster

Hey, we're back... just like that we have two podcasts (not one, but two!) in less than seven days. This one is a special edition, as Jurgen Klinsmann announced his USMNT 30-man preliminary roster for the World Cup yesterday. In response, Matt Hartley and I decided to record a podcast. The result is brilliant, and you should listen. [soundcloud url="https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/149278254" params="color=00cc11&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_artwork=true" width="100%" height="166" iframe="true" /]

MLS Head Coaches: Leveraging PWP Analysis on Performance

I promised this year, at various times, to offer some thoughts about how Possession with Purpose can be used to support analysis on how well Head Coaches might be performing compared to others. As a reminder from last year; five of the bottom six teams in my PWP Composite Index had coaching changes, Columbus, Chicago, San Jose, Toronto, Chivas USA, and then after an early exit from the Playoffs; Montreal.  Other teams making changes included Vancouver, Colorado and FC Dallas and the depature of Kreis for NYCFC. All told, a total of 10 teams made changes in Head Coaches for one reason or another.

Will this year have similar results, and if so, who?  I don't claim to prognosticate coaching changes and the firing of Head Coaches, but changes happen, and last year's information, relative to the bottom six teams in my Composite PWP Index, is pretty compelling at first glance.

So after reading an article offered up by Jason Davis at ESPNFC "Three MLS coaches on the hot seat," plus releasing my article earlier this week on Crosses offered in MLS, I figured the timing was pretty good for my first installment.

Here's some of my initial information for consideration on "system of attack":

1. For home games Frank Klopas, Mark Watson and Frank Yallop-led teams are the top three in MLS that offer up more crosses per pass attempted in the final third.
2. For away games Klopas, Watson, Yallop and Wilmer Cabrera-led teams are the top four teams in MLS that offer up more crosses per pass attempted in the final third.
3. The relationship of taking points, at home, in the MLS is (-.70) for teams that cross the ball more frequently than others. In other words, the teams who cross the ball the most are more likely to lose points (at home) than teams that don't.
4. The same relationship of taking points in away games holds as well (less at -.37). but still the same logic - the more crosses a team offers in away games the more likely they are to drop points.
5. Bottom line is these four teams are less likely to win at home or on the road given their current system of attack in the Final Third.

In other words, these teams led by these head coaches use a system of attack that simply doesn't get positive results on a regular basis in MLS; or... these teams, led by these head coaches and general managers don't have the right players to execute that system of attack in MLS.

So how does Sporting KC do it? They are a team that offers up the 7th-most crosses at home and the 5th most crosses on the road, yet they are winning using that system of attack.

Why? I think it's because their GM and head coach, collectively, are getting the right players to play to that system of attack.

So how about overall Team Attacking and Defending performance  (Team Positions in my Composite PWP Index) after nine weeks in: (1) Possession, (2) Passing Accuracy, (3) Penetration into the Final Third, (4) Creating and Taking Shots, (5) Putting Shots on Goal, and (6) Scoring Goals?

After Week nine, four of the five worst performing teams in MLS, in these categories are:

• Chivas USA (19th out of 19),
• Montreal Impact (18th out of 19),
• Chicago Fire (17th out of 19), and
• San Jose Earthquakes (15th out of 19).

In case you missed it in an earlier article on Expected Wins - the correlation of those data points as a whole is .99 (R-squared); the closer to "1" the better and stronger the relationship.

In other words that means that the relationship of those data points is pretty much rock solid, and that it's a worthy indicator (outside of points in the league table) for objectively evaluating team (attacking and defending) performance.

So while Jason Davis indicates John Hackworth and Caleb Porter as being potential candidates for hot seat discussions, actual evidence available indicates those names don't belong there. Indeed, there are other teams performing, as a whole, much worse than Philadelphia or Portland.

Three teams performing worse at this time include Chivas USA, Houston and Toronto, while Vancouver is behind the power curve compared to Philadelphia and slightly ahead of Portland.  By the way, this is not to say John Hackworth might not belong in a list a bit later this year - but for now I think it is highly speculative to even put in print that he's a potential hot seat candidate.

And with respect to Caleb Porter - it does seem, at times, that writers outside of the Portland area speculate and use the Timbers large supporter base to artificially increase readership in some of their articles... just saying. As a writer covering the Timbers here in Portland, reading the idea that Caleb Porter is on some sort of hot seat is (softly voiced) bollocks. But that's just me...

In closing:

Given the evidence offered, does it seem reasonable that those four Head Coaches and their associated GM's are worthy of a "Hot Seat" distinction? I think so...

Winning styles come in all shapes and sizes - the critical piece is having the right players to support that effort, and the time to install the system. Klopas, Cabrera, Yallop and Watson all know more about football than I do.

And it's not my place, nor is it the place of any soccer writer (in my opinion) to pass judgment on whether or not someone should get fired or hired.

But... objective evidence indicates that those four teams, compared to others, lack an effective attacking system of play, lack strong overall team performance in attacking and defending while also lacking the most important measuring stick - points in the league table.

I'm sure this is not new, nor rocket science, to those head coaches, general managers, or owners... but... (perhaps?) it is helpful to others.

Best, Chris

You can find Chris on twitter @ChrisGluckPWP

ASA Podcast: Episode XLV

Well, after a bit of a hiatus the podcast is back. I sit down with Jacob, aka @MLSAthiest, and we have a conversation about an assortment of (mostly) MLS-related topics. A slight note on the podcast itself, I tweaked the format and presentation ever so slightly, and I would love a bit of feed back on it--good or bad. I hope you enjoy it! [soundcloud url="https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/148465574" params="color=00aabb&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_artwork=true" width="100%" height="166" iframe="true" /]

Calculating Expected Goals 2.0

I wrote a post similar to this a while back, outlining the process for calculating our first version of Expected Goals. This is going to be harder. Get out your TI-89 calculators, please. (Or you can just used my Expected Goals Cheatsheet). Expected Goals is founded on the idea that each shot had a certain probability of going in based on some important details about that shot. If we add up all the probabilities of a team's shots, that gives us its Expected Goals. Our goal is that this metric conveys the quality of opportunities a team earns for itself. For shooters and goal keepers, the details about the shot change a little bit, so pay attention.

The formulas are all based on a logistic regression, which allows us to sort out the influence of each shot's many details all at once. The formula changes slightly each week because we base the regression on all the data we have, including each week's new data, but it won't change by much.

Expected Goals for a Team

• Start with -0.19
• Subtract 0.95 if the shot was headed (0.0 if it was kicked or othered).
• Subtract 0.74 if the shot was taken from a corner kick (by Opta definition)
• Subtract one of the following amounts for the shot's location:

Zone 1 - 0.0 Zone 2 - 0.93 Zone 3 - 2.37 Zone 4 - 2.68 Zone 5 - 3.55 Zone 6 - 3.06

Now you have what are called log odds of that shot going in. To find the odds of that shot going in, put the log odds in an exponent over the number "e". 

Finally, to find the estimated probability of that shot going in, take the odds and divide by 1 + odds.

Example: Shot from zone 3, header, taken off a corner kick:

-0.19 - 0.95 - 0.74 - 2.37 = -4.25

e^(-4.25) = .0143

.0143 / (1 + .0143) = 0.014 or a 1.4% chance of going in.

A team that took one of these shots would earn 0.014 expected goals.

Expected Goals for Shooter

• Start with -0.28
• Subtract 0.83 if the shot was headed (0.0 if it was kicked or othered).
• Subtract 0.65 if the shot was taken from a corner kick (by Opta definition).
• Add 2.54 if the shot was as a penalty kick.
• Add 0.71 if the shot was taken on a fastbreak (by Opta definition).
• Add 0.16 if the shot was taken from a set piece (by Opta definition).
• Subtract one of the following amounts for the shot's location:

1. 0.0
2. 1.06
3. 2.32
4. 2.61
5. 3.48
6. 2.99

Now you have what are called log odds of that shot going in. To find the odds of that shot going in, put the log odds in an exponent over the number "e". 

Finally, to find the estimated probability of that shot going in, take the odds and divide by 1 + odds. 

Example: A penalty kick

-0.28 + 2.54 - 1.06 = 1.2

e^(1.2) = 3.320

3.320/ (1 + 3.320) = 0.769 or a 76.9% chance of going in.

A player that took a penalty would gain an additional 0.769 Expected Goals. If he missed, then he be underperforming his Expected Goals by 0.769.

Expected Goals for Goalkeeper

*These are calculated only from shots on target.

• Start with 1.61
• Subtract 0.72 if the shot was headed (0.0 if it was kicked or othered).
• Add 1.58 if the shot was as a penalty kick.
• Add 0.42 if the shot was taken from a set piece (by Opta definition).
• Subtract one of the following amounts for the shot's location:

1. One) 0.0
2. Two) 1.10
3. Three) 2.57
4. Four) 2.58
5. Five) 3.33
6. Six) 3.21

• Subtract 1.37 if the shot was taken toward the middle third of the goal (horizontally).
• Subtract 0.29 if the shot was taken at the lower half of the goal (vertically).
• Add 0.35 if the was taken outside the width of the six-yard box and was directed toward the far post.

Now you have what are called log odds of that shot going in. To find the odds of that shot going in, put the log odds in an exponent over the number "e". 

Finally, to find the estimated probability of that shot going in, take the odds and divide by 1 + odds. 

Example: Shot from zone 2, kicked toward lower corner, from the run of play.

1.61 - 1.10 - 0.29 = 0.22 e^(0.22) = 1.246 1.246/ (1 + 1.246) = 0.555 or a 55.5% chance of going in. A keeper that took on one of these shots would gain an additional 0.555 Expected Goals against. If he saved it, then he would be outperforming his Expected Goals by 0.555.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why a regression  model? Why not just subset each shot in a pivot table by its type across all variables?

I think a lot of information--degrees of freedom we call it--would be lost if I were to partition each shot into a specific type by location, pattern of play, body part, and for keepers, placement. The regression gets more information about, say, headed shots in general, rather than "headed shots from zone 2 off corner kicks," of which there are far fewer data points.

2. Why don't you include info about penalty kicks in the team model?

Penalty kicks are not earned in a stable manner. Teams that get lots of PK's early in the season are no more likely to get additional PK's later in the season. Since we want this metric to be predictive at the team level, including penalty kicks would cloud that prediction for teams that have received an extreme number of PK's thus far.

3. The formula looks quite a bit different for shooters versus for keepers. How is that possible since one is just taking a shot on the other?

There are a few reasons for this. The first is that the regression model for keepers is based only on shots on target. It is meant only to assess their ability to produce quality saves. A different data set leads to different regression results. Also, we are now accounting for the shooter's placement. It is very possible that corner kicks are finished less often than shots from other patterns of play because they are harder to place. By including shot placement information in the keeper model, the information about whether the shot came off a corner is now no longer needed for assessing the keeper's ability.

4. Why don't you include placement for shooters, then?

We wish to assess a shooter's ability to create goals beyond what's expected. Part of that skill is placement. When a shooter has recorded more goals than his expected goals, it indicates a player that is outperforming his expectation. It could be because he places well, or that he is deceptive, or he is good at getting opportunities that are better than what the model thinks. In any case, we want the expected goals to reflect the opportunities earned, and thus the actual goals should help us to measure finishing ability to some extent.

How it Happened: Week Nine

Welcome to my few-days-old review of the weekend in MLS, where I recap three games that I watched in their entirety (well, usually) by picking a stat or Opta image that tells the story of the game for each team. This week I fell short of my usual three games, and I apologize to the legions of Red Bulls and FC Dallas fans who will no doubt be disappointed to read the following paragraph. FC Dallas 0 - 1 New York Red Bulls

Stat that told the story for both teams: 26 minutes for which I was able to watch this game

This game was hideous. Not necessarily soccer wise: Thierry Henry will be fun to watch when he's pushing a walker around on opposing half, and this was a very competitive match, from what I saw. But I couldn't even make it past 26 minutes of this game before I had to give up and turn it off. Between Je-Vaughn Watson's karate kick of Tim Cahill, the referee's less-than-stellar control of the game, and players, fans and coaches alike going insane showing their indignation at every whistle, it was absolutely painful.

Sporting Kansas City 2 - 0 Columbus Crew

Stat that told the story for SKC: the ability to switch the ball in one pass

First, an aside: re-capping the national TV game from NBCSN is next to impossible, but for a good reason. Kyle Martino on the broadcast team does such a fantastic job breaking down the tactics of the match, that it's incredibly difficult for me to pick out anything that hasn't been said yet. So I'm going to just roll with something he mentioned, and that Matthew Doyle also mentioned in his weekly column. One of the major differences between KC and Columbus is Matt Besler's ability to switch the field of play with one ball. It's an ability that led straight to the first goal (buildup pictured above according to Opta), and it's one that USMNT fans have to hope pays off in the World Cup. Columbus, for all their admirable qualities, don't really have a player with the quality to hit that ball. Federico Higuain can do it, and Wil Trapp will from time to time, but with SKC if it isn't Besler switching fields, it's Graham Zusi or Benny Feilhaber or Seth Sinovic. All in all, they're just a more complete team at the moment.

Stat that told the story for Columbus: Jairo Arrieta's actions

There's one other really big difference between the Crew and Sporting KC that spells out why Columbus doesn't measure up, at least not yet. Jairo Arrieta plays as a lone striker for Columbus. This probably isn't the greatest role for him, because he's at his best when combining with others. Sometimes this works well with him and Higuain, but sometimes (like Sunday), he ends up isolated and completely ineffective. Seriously, his action that was closest to the goal against SKC was still about 30 yards away from the endline. The Crew did have some solid moves, generally involving Josh Williams overlapping and sending in a dangerous cross, but the lack of a quality striker really did Columbus in.

Chivas USA 1 - 4 Houston Dynamo

Stat that told the story for Houston: interchanging midfield in the new formation

I'm gonna play a little trivia game here and see if you can guess which heat map belongs to which midfielder from Sunday's game for Houston. The telecast called Dom Kinnear's formation a 4-3-3, but it looked a whole lot like a 4-1-4-1 to me, taken straight out of Jay Heaps' playbook from last season. I really liked the move: the Dynamo have multiple midfielders who can tuck in or pose a threat out wide, and Giles Barnes and Will Bruin just haven't worked well together up top. So, might as well drop Barnes into the midfield. It was only Chivas, but the early returns were pretty tough to argue with: the midfield dominated every facet of the game from winning balls to creating chances. We'll see if the Dynamo stick to the formation, but I liked the innovation from Kinnear. By the way, the answer from top left to bottom right: Davis, Garcia, Driver, Barnes, Carrasco.

Stat that told the story for Chivas: first half midfield struggles: 16/19 recoveries/interceptions in their own half

I've written about Chivas a few times in recent weeks, focusing mostly on the midfield. Against the LA Galaxy, they got run over and never stood a chance. Against San Jose, they held their own and really made it a game (seeing the Quakes' struggles against Vancouver this weekend makes that seem like less of an accomplishment). Against the Dynamo on Sunday, it was back to getting run over. The five midfielders put together a total of 19 recoveries + interceptions in the first half, but 16 of them were in their own half and the other three were miles from the attacking goal. Basically, the Goats couldn't make up any ground and just got pushed around by the more talented Houston midfield. On the bright side: the second half started better, until another goalkeeper red card finished off any Chivas hopes at a comeback.

Dynamo Dynamic in Attack and Bulls Bullish on Defense - Week 9 Ends in MLS

Taking a team to L.A. and winning 4-1 sounds incredible until you offer up the caveat that it wasn't against the Galaxy. The doormat this year seems to be shining earlier than last. The Houston Dynamo have dominated in dynamic fashion; wow - good on you Giles Barnes...

So how exactly did that powerful attack look compared to other four-goal outbursts this year - was it really that special?

In all the four-goal games this year, here's a quick breakdown on which teams accomplished that and then who's been tops in their Possession with Purpose and Expected Wins statistics for those games:

1. DC United vs FC Dallas
2. Sporting KC vs Montreal Impact
3. Seattle Sounders vs Colorado Rapids
4. Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers
5. New York Red Bulls vs Houston Dynamo
6. Houston Dynamo vs Chivas USA
7. Houston Dynamo vs New England Revolution
8. Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
9. Vancouver Whitecaps vs New York Red Bulls

Tops in overall possession in those high scoring affairs was DC United at 67.04%. Tops in passing accuracy across the entire pitch was, again, DC United at 84.17%.

Tops in penetration percentage based upon passes completed in the final third vs. across the entire pitch was Houston vs. New England at 28.94%.

Tops in percentage of successful passes within the final third was Vancouver at 74.55%. Tops in shots taken compared to passes completed in the final third was Houston vs. Chivas USA at 39.13%.

Tops in shots on goal compared to shots taken was Vancouver at 71.43%; and finally... tops in goals scored vs. shots on goal was FC Dallas at 100% versus Houston.

So while Houston did well this weekend, and got their second four-goal game, it wasn't dominating compared to others - sorry Houston. It was three points (which is the target) but it wasn't really that special when viewing who you played against... more later on just how weak Chivas are in Possession with Purpose.

However viewed, Houston still had the best attacking outcome this week. So here's my PWP Attacking Player of the Week... Giles Barnes.

Moving on to the Defensive side of the pitch - FC Dallas saw red this past weekend and it wasn't just their kit, the Red Bulls kit or Dax McCarty's hair - it was Watson (elementary my dear) who got red.  

Things don't get better for Dallas either - they travel to Seattle for a midweek clash this Wednesday and then must fly down to San Jose for another on Saturday... wow.   Might we see Dallas drop three in a row?  I'm not sure and if you want to know my MLS picks for this week check here.

Anyhow, I digress - the PWP Defending Player of Week 9 is Jamison Olave...

So was that a worthy three points for New York and should it have been expected?  I'm not sure and here's some information to consider:

Below is a list of games, this year, where the first team listed got a Red Card:

1. DC United v FC Dallas
2. Columbus Crew v DC United
3. Columbus Crew v Sporting KC
4. Sporting KC v Columbus Crew
5. Sporting KC v New England Revolution
6. Sporting KC v Real Salt Lake
7. FC Dallas v Chivas USA
8. FC Dallas v DC United
9. FC Dallas v New York Red Bulls
10. FC Dallas v Portland Timbers
11. New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union
12. Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas
13. Houston Dynamo v Philadelphia Union
14. Chivas USA v Houston Dynamo
15. Chivas USA v San Jose Earthquakes
16. Chivas USA v Seattle Sounders
17. Chivas USA v Vancouver Whitecaps
18. Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids
19. Portland Timbers v FC Dallas
20. Vancouver Whitecaps v Colorado Rapids
21. Colorado Rapids v Portland Timbers
22. Colorado Rapids v Sporting KC
23. Montreal Impact v Philadelphia Union
24. Chicago Fire v New England Revolution
25. Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers
26. San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids
27. Seattle Sounders v Columbus Crew

Twenty seven in all and only Colorado, New York, FC Dallas twice, Sporting KC and DC United won games yielding just a 22% chance of winning when seeing Red.

FC Dallas and Chivas USA lead MLS having received Red Cards in four games.  But here's where the more later comes in for Chivas - check this out.

FC Dallas (when short handed) have an Attacking PWP Index = 2.3976.  Their Defending PWP Index = 2.3914 and their Composite PWP Index = .1472.

By contrast, the Goats PWP Indices (at full strength this year) for Attacking = 2.1685; for Defending = 2.5446 and for Composite PWP = -.3760.  If I were a Chivas USA supporter that is a pretty depressing statistical output - FC Dallas, short-handed, are more productive in Attack and more effective in Defense than a full-strength Chivas... wow!

In circling back to my question on whether or not it should have been expected that New York would win?   Perhaps now, seeing how effective FC Dallas is, even when short-handed, it wasn't quite the cake-walk one would expect.  Key for Dallas these next 7 days will be the health of Diaz and the discipline to minimize Red Cards...

In closing...

After nine full weeks of MLS here's how things stand with my Composite PWP Index along with a few quick thoughts plus the Top 3 in Attacking and Top 3 in Defending.

LA Galaxy remain atop the table even with their 1-nil loss in Colorado - if Robbie Keane hits that PK, LA doesn't drop one point.  As for Columbus they drop down to 3rd with Sporting KC pushing up to spot #2.

Seattle, FC Dallas, Colorado and Columbus still stay in the top 6 while RSL continues to move forward - inching one space higher into 7th with New York and New England swapping places.

Note DC United dropped a few places and the bandwidth between the Revolution, United, Union, Whitecaps, and Portland got a bit tighter while Houston pushed forward past both Montreal and Chicago after thrashing Chivas.

Settling into last is Chivas, by a large margin, while the Fire and Impact hover on the low end as well...

Did a change in Managers (Head Coaches) really make a difference when looking at the End State? I'm not sure; for now it doesn't appear that either Klopas or Yallop have really changed things up when viewing the bottom line...

The top three teams in overall Attacking PWP (after 9 full weeks) are FC Dallas, Seattle Sounders, and Columbus Crew - can their approaches in possession continue to keep them there?

The top three teams in overall Defending PWP are Sporting KC, LA Galaxy and New England Revolution - some might offer elsewhere that it is surprising to see the Revolution somewhat higher in the table compared to others; is that surprising?

I don't think so... they have shown pedigree in defending for over a year now and with an improved attack it only stands to reason that their overall position finds them where they are...

Finally, have you made adjustments in your Fantasy teams yet?

If not and you are looking for a consistent (team back-four) you may want to add the Revolution to your list while spending a bit of change in leveraging Lloyd Sam from New York (cheap and cheerful) or latching on to Jaoa Plata if you haven't already...

Best, Chris

PWP-Pick-List Week 10 - weaving Expected Wins into my predictions this week...

A different approach this week just to see how things go.  Instead of leveraging my PWP Indices this week I'm going to leverage my Expected Wins analysis this week. Last week I was 5/9 so my running total on my PWP-Pick-List is 51%.

As background - most teams have had roughly an equal amount of home and away games - the Expected Wins #'s are the R2 values relative to playing either at home or on the road.  It's not 100% enough games but it'll do as a test of sorts...

The higher the number the more effective the team has been in overall Possession, Passing Accuracy, Penetration, Shots Taken, Shots on Goals and Goals Scored... the R2 below does not take into account the points earned (i.e. - those numbers do not reflect points won or lost in the league table)...

So in quick fashion (offering up only wins or losses - no draws) here's my picks for games beginning Wednesday and ending on Sunday:

Canadian Cup Vancouver visits Toronto:  Expected wins Toronto .9979 at home and Vancouver .9997 on the road.  Have most MLS teams twigged onto the 'mistake driven' attack by Toronto where possession really has no meaning?  I think so...  Nelson has, as I've intuited earlier this year, imported a European style of football to MLS. Chelsea has seen some success but has failed to take the EPL Championship.  Is this system good enough to get Toronto in to the Playoffs? I'm not sure  - for now I pick Vancouver winning. 

Houston at home to Columbus: Expected wins Houston .9993 at home and Columbus .9996 on the road - Columbus would normally be favored but with Will Trapp sitting on a Red Card I pick Houston winning.  Besides - it is still early days for Berhalter's system and Kinnear knows it well enough having just played Portland while also playing against Sporting the last few years...  I think the width of Houston is better...

Canadian Cup - Edmonton at home to Montreal:  Expected wins for Edmonton (no idea) and Montreal .9993 - Montreal wins given their budget and higher quality players... if they don't win - wow - they really aren't any good...

Seattle at home to FC Dallas:  Expected wins Seattle .9992 at home and FC Dallas .9990 on the road - Seattle wins; especially with Watson on a Red Card.

San Jose at home to Colorado:  Expected wins San Jose .9989 at home and Colorado .9996 on the road.  Colorado has done extremely well on the road this year averaging 1.25 goals per game - they have speed and the back-four for San Jose doesn't... why on earth Goodson continues to be a potential selection candidate for the World Cup I don't know...  maybe he proves me wrong this game.  For the USMNT sake I hope so...  for now Colorado wins...

Philadelphia at home to DC United:  Expected wins Philadelphia .9996 at home and DC United .9985 on the road; A rough patch for the Union of late and Hackworth is probably pretty hacked off by now - for no other reason than the Expected wins favors the Union I think Philadelphia wins...

Montreal at home to Sporting KC:  Expected wins Montreal .9979 at home and Sporting KC .9998 on the road - Montreal took advantage of a disjointed Union two weeks ago and they may consider have to play some stronger players to ensure a good result against Edmonton.  That and Sporting probably being very upset about dropping three points in New England sees Sporting KC  winning... besides, with Zusi and Besler being away with the USMNT later this year these early games really are pretty important for them.

New York Red Bulls at home to Chicago Fire:  Expected wins New York .9999 at home and Chicago .9996 on the road -The Red Bulls are almost at full strength - Cahill got minutes in their Red Card tainted win in Dallas and it's not likely they will be shut out against a Fire defense that's really watered down again this year - New York Red Bulls win...

Columbus at home to Vancouver:  Expected wins Columbus .9996 at home and Vancouver .9997 on the road - I'm convinced Columbus can play possession based football but can they do it consistently and can they take on a Vancouver team that is pretty powerful in attack?  I'm not sure they do that this next weekend.  So this might be an upset by many but I pick Vancouver to win...

San Jose at home to FC Dallas:  Expected wins San Jose  .9989 (subject to change given another home game earlier in the week) and FC Dallas (also with another away game earlier in the week) .9990 - I suppose San Jose has to put together a run of wins sooner or later - my guess is that it doesn't happen here - the attack, if Diaz is healthy is just too strong and the back-four, as noted before, is simply too slow - even with Watson having to sit with a Red Card against New York...  (edit - Watson sits against Seattle) FC Dallas wins...  that doesn't mean San Jose can't score in this game - Dallas remain weak at the back and that might be the telling downfall for Dallas again this year when push comes to shove...

Portland at home to LA Galaxy:  Expected wins Portland .9953 at home and LA .9999 on the road; LA has higher Expected Wins but Portland are improving and LA just lost on the road to Colorado - tough game here and if I had to pick a draw this week it would be here.  For now, unfortunately my Expected Wins indicates LA with a win but I will go with Portland to win.

Colorado at home to Chivas USA:  Expected wins Colorado .9983 at home and Chivas .9997 on the road.  Another one going against the grain based upon Expected wins - I just don't see Chivas winning this game no matter how well their attacking data points relate to each other...  besides speed kills and Colorado has speed up top with Brown... Colorado wins

New England at home to Seattle:  Expected wins New England .9990 at home and Seattle .9997 on the road.  A true test for New England in matching their solid defense against one of the most potent attacks in MLS - an early statement game, in my opinion for the Revolution.  They took it to Sporting KC against the odds at home not too long ago and this one will be a test as well.  For now I have more confidence in the attack of Seattle creating and scoring more goals than the defense giving away more goals to New England... Seattle wins...

Houston at home to Real Salt Lake:  Expected wins Houston .9993 at home and Real Salt Lake .9997 on the road.  Jaoa Plata has shown his value this season and his pairing with Saborio is simply dangerous - that coupled with the strong Diamond midfield makes RSL very hard to beat anywhere.  And with Houston having a game earlier this week I see RSL taking three points...

Best, Chris