ASA Podcast XLIII: The one where Matty Makes the Call

Hey everyone, here is our latest terrible exhilarating podcast for your listening pleasure. The delay this week in posting was largely due to us switching to 'Mixcloud' for the conceivable hosting future as we move way from our current site and into a domain of our own. Admittedly, we ate up a good 15 minutes in the start of the podcast talking about the Seattle-Portland match, but you saw that coming...right? The rest of the podcast is also solid, and perhaps more importantly, less Cascadia-specific, so don't give up on it just because of that segment! [mixcloud http://www.mixcloud.com/hkcrow/asa-podcast-xliii-the-one-where-matty-gives-the-call/ width=660 height=180 /]

Possession with Purpose: My MLS thoughts and the Indices through Week 5

An editorial comment before starting: In case you missed it, there is no flash and dash to my headlines for Possession with Purpose. My intent here is not to create a misconception about what the Indices and corresponding statistics show. Statistics, when effective, are not based upon emotion; they have value because they lack emotion. The trick has always been, from a management standpoint, to balance the value of metrics with the value of knowledge in how the game of soccer is played.

With that said there are a few changes (as expected after just five weeks) to these Indices - I'll dig into those, but first as always, here's a link to my original article on American Soccer Analysis in case you aren't familiar with my methodology.

PWP COMPOSITE INDEX CUMULATIVE THROUGH WEEK 5 2014

Observations:

It's still early so teams may move around quite a bit. Consider how last year took shape: it wasn't until the 15-17 week time-frame where teams settled in, and even then we saw FC Dallas take a marked nose-dive in PWP.

Put another way; by Week 17, last year, eight of the ten teams to make the MLS Playoffs were in the top ten and pretty much stayed there the rest of the way. By 2013 season's end this Index had correctly identified nine of the top ten teams with only Houston as the outlier at 12th.

The grist between Week 4 and Week 5...

  • The Capt. Obvious here is FC Dallas have moved up top while Columbus, who lost 2-nil to Toronto have slid back to 2nd.
  • As for the bottom dwellers (somebody has gotta be there)... San Jose, Chivas and New England - more to follow there when digging into the Attacking and Defending PWP Indices.
  • Houston was off to a good start this season (4th in PWP last week) but they've dropped to 10th best this week. Much of that had to do with a red card to center-back David Horst and the three goals scored by Dallas less than 15 minutes after his exit.
  • This drop is one of those early season moves that might be expected with such a low sample size - by Week 12 or so a one-off game like this for a team might not create such a large impact in the Index rating.
  • Real Salt Lake completely hammered Toronto two weeks ago - yet this week, a big surprise for me, Toronto turned around and beat Columbus, in Columbus. That great result for Toronto saw them move up from 17th to 12th.
  • Other movers include Ben Olsen's squad. DC United was dead last after four weeks and are now tucked in at 12th, behind Portland.
  • Another big mover this week was New England, albeit the wrong way, who moved from 12th best to 17th. More to follow on the Revolution a bit further down...

What to Look for Next Weekend...

As the year progresses I will begin to offer up a few snippets for your consideration on the upcoming games while leveraging the PWP Indices.

I'm not sure if you want to call these prognostications or not - that's up to you - but in looking at the Indices and understanding all the analysis behind how they are created here's my thoughts for this weekend.

I call it my (PWP-Pick-List): I have no idea how this will play out so we can all watch together...

  • Real Salt Lake at Philadelphia - Given the PWP pedigree of Salt Lake I'm not seeing Philadelphia win this game; as for the addition of Wenger and how he influences things - hard to say. In my view it is more likely Edu and/or Okugo lend more value than Wenger at this time. RSL wins...
  • Colorado at Toronto - Tough one here but I am going with a win to Colorado. It's early yet and the Rapids remain a strong attacking team, even on the road (4 points on the road already). That coupled with numerous injuries in Toronto I see the Rapids taking 3 points against the depleted Reds.
  • Chicago at Montreal - Truly an interesting game between Yallop's style and Klopas's style. I had originally considered this might end in a draw but after thinking a bit more about how weak the PWP Defense was in Chicago last year (under Klopas) and how weak the Montreal defense is looking this year (under Klopas) I think Chicago takes 3 points.
  • Houston at New England - That red card really hurt Houston and perhaps Brunner? gets the head nod to replace Horst. As for the Revolution - they have a solid defense but can they score? I think Houston can get at least one goal up north - I'm just not seeing the same for New England... Houston wins.
  • New York at DC United - A real early test for both teams. The defense for New York really hasn't been that good and DC are beginning to take shape. New York wins if Sekagya and Olave pair up as center backs with Eckersley returning to partner Miller as the fullbacks. If Kimura starts at right back I think DC United wins. Rumor has it Miller is injured - does that put Convey as the left fullback? If so don't forget the 4-1 loss to Vancouver with Convey playing left fullback...
  • Seattle at FC Dallas - Another tough road match for the Sounders coming off a lucky tie against Portland last week. In all fairness the Timbers dominated large parts of that game and they exposed the weak center of Seattle. But FC Dallas also have a weak center - this could be another 3-3 draw but the edge goes to Seattle with Traore returning as center-back in place of a very weak defending Anibaba.
  • Chivas at Portland - Can I really opine anything different than 3 points to Portland? I'll put it this way: if they don't get three points against a very disorganized defense like Chivas there may be major issues in Soccer City USA.
  • Vancouver at Los Angeles - I'm not sure anybody beats LA in LA this year. LA wins.
  • Columbus at San Jose - Challenging home game for San Jose and they need three points against a strong Eastern Conference team. For now, I don't see them doing that regardless of how many crosses they put into the box. Most likely a draw here...

I wouldn't bet the house on any of these offerings - I'd suggest they are no more or less valuable than what others following MLS soccer might consider.

For the record though - after Week 15 completes I will begin to keep official track of my prognostications leveraging the PWP Indices.

Moving on to my PWP Attacking Index...

PWP ATTACKING INDEX CUMULATIVE THROUGH WEEK 5 2014

Observations:

Here's where it gets interesting. Note that Philadelphia, New York and Chicago Fire are fairly high up in the rankings while Toronto and Sporting KC are a bit lower.

This is where you can get an idea on what teams tend to focus a wee bit more in attack and what teams might not.

So for example, when looking at New England, they have had just one home game so far this year. They've been shutout by Vancouver and in three of their four road matches they didn't score a goal.

The only team they have beaten this year is San Jose, a current bottom dweller for most of the first five weeks. It's that overall Index rating that helps me shape my pick that Houston will beat New England given their current performances.

As for New York, they have four draws so far this year after getting hammered at home by Vancouver. Their attack has gotten better with Peguy Luyindula and his efforts working with Steele and Sam were pretty good in Montreal. All that happened without Henry, Cahill or McCarty starting (albeit McCarty did come on as a sub later on). Don't forget Luyindula missed that PK as well...

Chicago... This team does not resemble the attack pattern of old Chicago that Yallop left behind and abandoned in San Jose. There is more grist on the ground this year and if the defense gets better they should be pretty good.

My PWP Defending Index...

PWP DEFENDING INDEX CUMULATIVE THROUGH WEEK 5 2014

Observations:

The LA Galaxy have moved into the top spot in place of Columbus while Houston took a huge nose dive with the red card to Horst.

Four goals against (one being an own goal) to FC Dallas will significantly influence this Index that early in the season... note Houston went from having the second most effective defense to the 12th most effective defense.

Creeping up further this week was Sporting KC. Last year they were tops for the 34 game regular season and this week they climbed from 5th up to 2nd with that game against Real Salt Lake. It's quite an achievement for Sporting to get a clean sheet against that wicked-good Diamond 4-4-2.

So how about New England? Two years ago their defense was solid and their attack was shaky; have they digressed? Hard to say, their back-end looks good (ooh err missus) but their front end leaves a wee bit to be desired...

Vancouver continues to stay in the top 10 for Defending PWP. Last year they were horrid in defense and every week they stay in the top ten is every reason to consider betting they will make the playoffs.

Last but not least Toronto are sitting in 7th place in Defending PWP. Defense will win you championships. The rebuild, though looking more geared to improve the attack, has had a strong influence on the defensive side of the pitch.

As noted earlier it appears they have a number of injuries --- to long to list --- so here's a link in case you are interested.

In closing...

Clint Dempsey had a great 20+ minutes for Seattle this past weekend and it looks as if Schmid may have found the right area for him to operate in. That's bad news for the Western Conference as a whole and in particular for Vancouver and Portland as they also vie against the Sounders for the Cascadia Cup.

How Dempsey settles in will be interesting especially if Kenny Cooper returns to his goal scoring days while in New York. The system might be a wee bit different but Cooper does well when there are others around him who can score and create good space by their mere presence on the pitch; Dempsey does that like Henry does that for New York.

All else considered the only teams I really haven't talked about that much about are Montreal and Chivas.

I have no idea how Chivas will do this year. Their match this weekend in Portland is an early statement match for both teams. If Chivas takes it on the chin it is likely they retain the doormat award in the West again this year.

As for Montreal, I'm not a fan of Klopas (not because I don't like him, I don't know him) but I think the poor defense in Chicago will translate to Montreal. It's hard to say though now that they have McInerney as well as Di Viao...

Five games in, Montreal are 5th worst in Defending PWP and 6th worst in Attacking PWP. Bottom line here is they aren't good on either side of the ball, yet.

If I had an early season prognostication it would be Montreal will be the doormats of the Eastern Conference unless Jack McInerney brings some magic with him.

All the best, Chris You can follow me on twitter here @ChrisGluckPWP.

How it Happened: Week Five

Another great week of MLS games went down this past weekend. Even though I didn't have the pleasure of watching all 90 minutes of Cascadia bliss from Portland (I do my best to mix up which teams I watch for this post, and this wasn't a Seattle or Portland week), there were still plenty of solid rivalry matches to go around. Without further ado, here's how it happened for six teams last weekend:

Houston Dynamo 1 - 4 FC Dallas

Stat that told the story for Houston: Ricardo Salazar's heat map

hou5

If you don't recognize Ricardo Salazar's name from the Houston roster, you aren't alone. He was the referee for this one, and while I refuse to rip on officials because they have a really difficult job, it's impossible to deny the influence he had on this game (image above shows all the fouls called - three of which turned directly into goals). I actually don't think Salazar did a terrible job given the circumstances: this game was a true rivalry match where both teams came out and played super physically from the opening whistle. But Houston and Dallas were neck-and-neck until the red card was doled out to David Horst, and the Dynamo almost immediately capitulated once they went down a man. Sure, the red card was a debatable decision, but Houston has to show better composure after going down a man.

Stat that told the story for Dallas: 11 set pieces taken by Mauro Diaz and Michel

It would be easy to pick a stat from the last half hour of this one, when Houston had basically given up and the Dallas midfield had full control of the park. But what's arguably more impressive from this one was how Dallas was still in this game for the first hour, despite being on the road to a tough opponent in the Dynamo. Truthfully, FCD hadn't been playing particularly well; Houston was successful in limiting space for Diaz and they had control of the midfield. But even playing mediocre, Dallas had created a number of really good chances and a goal, all from set pieces. Both Diaz and Michel are wizards over a dead ball, and any set piece in the attacking half is a chance waiting to happen for the Hoops.

Sporting KC 0 - 0 Real Salt Lake

Stat that told the story for Kansas City: 16 key passes

kc5

For me, this stat/image is more about where the key passes took place than how many of them there were. KC and RSL have a bit of a history now, and the teams definitely know what to expect when they faceoff. I thought Sporting did a really good job of a couple things: (1) pressing RSL into turnovers and (2) attacking the Salt Lake diamond midfield. I'll talk more about #1 below, so here's my take on KC's attack. They created most of their shots or chances by either playing wide around the narrow midfield or by bypassing it entirely and going over the top. While it didn't result in any goals for Sporting, that was more of a function of RSL's great goalkeeping and KC's mediocre finishing. Overall, I liked the gameplan of Peter Vermes this weekend.

Stat that told the story for Salt Lake: 257/282 (91.1%) of completed passes were in the first two thirds of the field

Real Salt Lake is a possession team, and everyone knows it. They try to pass all over the field, and when they're at their best they control the ball into and around the penalty area before getting chances. In this one, Kansas City really let them have it with their high-pressing defense. RSL couldn't find much space anywhere in the middle third of the field, let alone the attacking third, leading Salt Lake to play mostly in their own half. This was particularly the case early in the game: in the games first 40 minutes, 76/113 (67%) of RSL's completed passes were in the defensive half of the field. It was a bit surprising that a veteran team like RSL didn't seem prepared for this one, but given the makeshift lineup Jeff Cassar fielded, a scoreless draw has to be seen as a point gained rather than two lost in Utah.

 

Chivas USA 0 - 3 LA Galaxy

Stat that told the story for LA: 131 completed passes in the center of the field by midfielders

lag5

 

Bruce Arena did something that was pretty unexpected this Sunday, deploying a diamond midfield of four nominally central midfielders: Juninho, Stefan Ishizaki, Marcelo Sarvas and Baggio Husidic. The move was a clear message that despite their best attempts, the Galaxy had been unable thus far to find any decent wide play in the midfield opposite Landon Donovan. Instead of trying yet another option out there, LA played their four best overall midfielders in a diamond, and instructed them to figure it out as they went. As the scoreline suggests, this was hugely successful as the Galaxy just overran Chivas in the midfield time and again. The starting midfield completed 131 passes in the center of the field compared to the Goats' midfield's 79, and that's to say nothing of the 2 goals on 8 shots that the midfielders also added. As I'll note in the next paragraph, Chivas' midfield is hardly a force to be reckoned with, but early signs on the diamond midfield are strictly positive.

Stat that told the story for Chivas: 1 weird starting lineup

OK, this isn't a stat, but it's hard to find anything in particular to focus on when most of the game was Chivas getting run over. There were some decent attacking combinations when the Goats were able to possess the ball and get forward, but those times were few and far between. From looking at the team that Wilmer Cabrera put on the field, it's hard to imagine a much better result. I know the general narrative surrounding Chivas is that the club is much improved since Cabrera's come onboard, but this is still a weirdly constructed roster. Trying to fit this team of very few fullbacks and a ton of attack-minded midfielders into a 4-4-2 is quite a task, which is why this week's lineup looked so weird. The strange fits included featuring midfielder Eric Avila and centerback Andrew Jean-Baptiste at fullback, and Agustin Pelletieri* and mostly attack-minded Carlos Alvarez in central midfield.

*I think Pelletieri is supposed to be more of a holding midfielder, but all I've seen of him is an early red card vs. Vancouver and getting run over by LA. Too early to pass judgment, but he wasn't impressive this weekend.

Agree with my assessments? Think I’m an idiot? I always appreciate feedback. @MLSAtheist

MLS Possession with Purpose: The best and worst of Week 5

pwp-strategic-composite-index-week-5-only-e1396975889335.jpg

And so it goes; another week completed where you got the heart-pounding excitement from the Cascadia Cup clash, a defensive struggle from two of the best teams in MLS, and lopsided victories for two others. Before digging in, a couple of links to consider: if you missed the match between Portland and Seattle here are two articles you may want to read if the opportunity presents itself. This one was offered up by MLS, and then here's mine offered up on my home site here in Portland with the Columbian Newspaper.

Also, if PWP is new for you there may be value in reading what that's about through this link, an introduction to PWP and some explanations in case this approach is new to you.

With that out of the way it's time for some grist... who was the most effective and efficient team in my PWP Composite Index this week, and who was the worst?

To set the table here's my standard diagram for Week 5 only. Later this week I will publish the Cumulative Index - when I do I'll pop that link here.

Observations:

There were two games this past weekend with lopsided scores (3-nil LA over Chivas) and (4-1 FC Dallas over Houston).

Up until the completion of the LA Galaxy 3-nil thrashing of Chivas USA, it looked like FC Dallas would be top of the heap for Week 5 - and rightly so given they put 3 past Houston plus they got the Orange team to give them an own goal as well.

But as you can see, LA were tops this week; more later on why, and it may surprise you.

The tough part about the FC Dallas game, for Houston, was the straight red and sending off of David Horst on what the Referee considered was a rash foul down Houston's right sideline. I'm not so sure about that but as we have seen so far this year, the Referee's are stamping their authority with no reservation whatsoever.

Spilt milk and, as it goes. Dallas scored three goals within 15 minutes of that Red Card to take three points. If you run a team defense in Fantasy football and have Houston in that role you got hosed - I do and I got hosed in the back-four; still got 52 points though!

But back to the LA Galaxy match on Sunday

If anyone wasn't sure about how Landon Donovan could operate in a Diamond 4-4-2, be advised that he can - he has - and he will; when surrounded by other strong players, he's tough to stop.

For me, though, this game wasn't about just scoring goals. It was also about defense, and it's that defensive mindset that put LA at the overall top this week - clean sheets matter!

As for the bottom side of the Index...

If it's LA shutting down Chivas that garners the top offensive spot, then it's reasonable the flip side is the complete lack of structure and focus from Chivas that sees them at the bottom.

Carlos Bocanegra has great mental awareness, but he can't stop an aggressive Galaxy attack on his own - and in the short glimpses I had of their video it certainly looked to me like Baptiste and others were simply outmatched.

As for Houston - enuf said - the Red Card to Horst directly influenced the outcome of that game.

As for the middle of the middle of the pack... if you read my recommendations above about the Timbers-Sounders match, you know that game was all about possession with the intent to penetrate. There was absolutely no possession, that I saw, where the intent was to possess just for the sake of controlling possession.

There is no love lost between those two teams, and it seems every time they meet both just simply want to smash each other senseless. It makes for great entertainment, but there are times in my book where negative football has value, and securing three points (like it or not) is a time where negative football has value.

So on to the PWP Attacking Index; here's how they lined up head to head...

PWP STRATEGIC ATTACKING INDEX WEEK 5 ONLY

Observations:

For the first time this year the magical 3.00 barrier was broken in the attacking index. It comes on the heels of the USMNT also breaking the 3.00 barrier in the first half against Mexico. If you missed my thoughts on that game, you can review them here.

Onwards and upwards - for the first time this year Portland broke the top-five barrier in team attack for a given week, getting two stunners from Diego Chara plus another couple from the Argentina contingent of Diego Valeri and Maxi Urruti.

Not to be outdone was the final 20-minute performance of Clint Dempsey - aye - he got a goal early on, but for much of the game his influence and presence was pretty much unnoticed. Indeed, the chalkboard tells us that between about the 40-minute mark and the 70-minute mark, he had just 9 touches of any sort with no shots or key passes. It wasn't until the 70-minute mark where he started to directly influence and impact the game. After that point, Dempsey had no fewer than 18 touches in the run of play with one key pass, three shots on target, and a goal.

I'm all for highlighting his hat trick in that game, but he simply wasn't solid through the full 90+ minutes, and his team barely eked out a draw.

Understanding that and seeing the red-card tainted blowout of Houston by FC Dallas my PWP Attacking Player of Week 5 was...

Observations:

That may be a surprise to some on two fronts. One - Dempsey got a Hat Trick. And Two - what about Watson or Diaz?

Well, as already noted, Dempsey simply didn't play well for a full 90+ minutes and his presence and influence did not prevent Portland from having their best attacking performance of the year.

In addition, it's likely Seattle drops three points if Ben Zemanski doesn't do what he did in the box, and I'm simply not in favor of seeing someone getting an Attacking Player of the Week award when his team loses or draws. 3 points is the objective in this game - it's not all about just scoring goals.

And two - while Diaz is the spark that lights the Dallas attack this year and Watson donated a brace of goals this weekend, I feel and think Michel had more overall responsibility on the pitch; therefore - given his vast number of touches on both sides of the ball I give him the award.

And in case you missed it, I don't view this weekly award as going to someone who just lights up the front end without also considering how well they supported the back end.

Time now for Defending PWP Team of the week, where the LA Galaxy really made it count

Observations:

It was a close call between LA and Sporting KC this week when it came down to it; any team who can get a clean sheet against Real Salt Lake has really done their job.

But... alas... the Top PWP Defending team was LA. Why? Well it really came down to how poorly Chivas USA performed against LA, and not how poorly Real Salt Lake performed against Sporting; remember - this Weekly Index does not get influenced by previous performances on a week to week basis only the Cumulative Index does.

When checking out my Cumulative Index later this week, you may see a change in who the top defending team is overall - for now though - this is just Week 5.

In looking at the player statistics I had considered awarding the PWP Defender of Week 5 to Landon Donovan, and here's why: he had three key passes, five recoveries and an 85% passing accuracy with 2 assists. But the more compelling case fell to Juninho, given his combined efforts (like Michel) playing on both sides of the ball.

Here's the Diagram offering up his team effort on Sunday...

In closing

Week 5 saw some individual players step up and some team performances improve as compared to previous weeks. It's a long season, and it's likely the Cumulative Index will continue to take shape - especially after the (unexpected) Toronto victory over Columbus in Ohio.

You may have thought that game flew under the radar, but it hasn't, and Toronto will look the better for it in my Cumulative Index... all is not lost when a team gets a big victory without getting the headlines for that week.

If curious - here's a link to my Weekly PWP analysis on the Red Bulls of New York.

All for now,

Chris

USMNT - My thoughts after 2-2 Draw with Mexico

If you're like me you were pretty impressed with the first half Wednesday evening as Jurgen Klinsmann deployed a Diamond 4-4-2 in the truest sense - narrow and focused down the middle with the intent to manage the wings by channeling things to the middle. It worked really well in the first half. To give you a comparison on how well it went, here's a table on their Possession with Purpose (six steps in Attack) in the first half compared to that of the second half with the average for MLS Teams in 2013.

But before offering the here's a link to what PWP is all about in case you've missed it before.

Team Possession Percentage Passing Accuracy Percentage Penetration Percentage Creation of Shots Taken based upon Penetration Percentage Shots on Goal compared to Shots Taken Percentage Goals Scored compared to Shots on Goal Percentage
USMNT 1st Half          59%           85%           13%            14%           80%           50%
USMNT 2nd Half          41%           80%           18%            25%           14%            0%
Mexico 1st Half          41%          75%           21%             5%            0%            0%
Mexico 2nd Half          59%          80%           23%           35%          44%          25%
MLS 2013 Average for Comparison          50%          76%           22%           20%          34%          30%

Observations:

I won't offer up anything new here that I didn't already offer on twitter during the match but in case you missed some of those streaming thoughts here they are without limiting my words to the format of twitter.

Bradley and Beckerman needed to be the fulcrum between the defending side of the pitch and the attacking side of the pitch if that Diamond 4-4-2 is to be successful - I'd offer that most would agree they were (at least in the first half).

In considering I had never seen Michael Parkhurst in a left fullback position I opined that the way this team lined up some good chances would come down the right side with Beltran running overlaps or supporting Zusi in deep penetration on the wings.

I'd offer that was also the case in the first half - nothing better as an example than the goal Wondolowski had working from the Zusi cross that Bradley flicked on for Wondolowski to poke home.

What was surprising to me (a very welcome surprise) was how effective Michael Parkhurst was in the first half working the left side with his own mix of penetration combined with Davis --- I really did enjoy seeing that Wednesday evening and support like that from Michael reinforces his ball handlling skills - and - In my view makes him a very credible selection to start at Centerback along with Matt Besler.

If you didn't already know Michael Parkhurst was my PWP Defender of the Week #1 and here's that article supporting that analysis.

I'm not sure why I've never rated Omar Gonzalez highly but I don't - maybe it's his defensive positioning that makes me nervous but I'm a defensive minded guy in football and while there are good points in having a CB who can attack the box on set-pieces my view is that they are first and foremost on the pitch to (STOP) the opponent from scoring - all else is a bonus after that.

As for the goals against in the second half - other pundits have already offered up the Capt. Obvious here that Gonzalez was directly accountable for both goals scored by Mexico - so I ask (rhetorically) did he really add value to this squad in that game in his primary role and if not - who's better?

That's not a question for me to answer but I think it is a question Jurgen Klinsmann needs to ask himself and his new staff...

Like many things in life, I'm not particularly fond of folks who offer up a problem (be it real or perceived) without also coming up with a solution/recommendation to that problem.  So with that here are my options knowing that some players are simply not going to get selected that haven't already played under Jurgen recently.

Goodson - Not sure here either - I personally have not seen him enough to offer a view that (in my view) has merit - he does well for San Jose but he didn't get particularly good minutes overseas with what I feel and think is a top rated club.  More information needed.

Parkhurst - I have seen him probably as little as I have seen Goodsen but in those few short games (and his impressive showing to me on Wednesday evening) it is clear he has the pace to cope with the wings and also has the passing accuracy and understanding of a broader role in positional play to make an very effective CB (starting CB) provided he can handle the more physical side of the game when teams include a more traditional #9 who plays more with his back to goal than trying to run on to through balls.

Cameron - His time overseas is seeing the game as a right back for Stoke - is that mix the right mix to settle in alongside Besler - and how is that chemistry going to take shape?  He has positional awareness of how positional play works down the wings so that adds great value - just like that in seeing Parkhurst play the left side Wednesday evening.

For me Parkhurst is a first option to pair with Besler but my view is limited - call it a gut instinct - but do folks really expect a CB who has played as long as Gonzalez to say in passing he needs to be more dominant in his role as a CB in protecting the box?  Wow - I hope not.  That is something a CB should KNOW and understand from day 1...  oh my...

Perhaps a more compelling question is how long has this weakness (lack of being switched-on to the true purpose of a CB) been or not been recognized by the USMNT staff?

And then to throw a teammate under the bus - bollocks - it just reinforces my own views that Gonzalez is not the right choice to represent the USMNT as a starting CB in the World Cup.

A winning World Cup team must be linked in and switched-on to roles and responsibilities for 90+ minutes for at least 3 games in 8 days??? in order to advance - and then it just gets tougher and tougher... that speaks to having resilience in a squad and throwing a teammate under the bus is not an example of resilience - it represents a shirking of responsibility.

As for Green - as noted in my finishing tweets for the match - in my view Green is still green - that was worthy and notable of Klinsmann to put him in as a way to begin his trail of caps - but as an option going forward now?  Unless his attitude is so positive and infectious for others I just don't see him having any role of substance this World Cup - the hype is what it is - hype...

Tough question here for those who've been around footy for some time.  If a real stud, do you really think Green would miss an opportunity to play for Germany in a World Cup or European Championship in the very near term?

The pedigree with the German side is simply to strong to even think for a second that (if a starter there) he would ditch that opportunity to be a starter here).  Like it or not the USMNT's progress has not made it that far in being that good...  if you think they have your emotions are overwhelming your senses.  Bringing Green into the side is more about 2018 than 2014; and for that I tip my hat to Klinsmann...

In closing...

A welcome sight to see the USMNT open in a diamond 4-4-2 and the pieces to that puzzle looked pretty good when considering who started and who didn't.  I would offer that style of play speaks to some of the stronger styles we see in MLS - is that the intent of Klinsmann - to stamp a particular style of play that suits the stronger and more possession oriented sides in the MLS who are also known for closing down and giving the opponent very little space and time to work with?

I think so - and yes - width is critical to manage when working a narrow approach and the right pieces need to be there to do that.  Evidence of that was very clear Wednesday evening - as the second half opened and the subs began to rotate for the USMNT the Mexican side went from offering up just 8 crosses in the first half to a total of 23 crosses for the second half.

Clearly the change in players on both sides, to include complacency and fatigue of the USMNT, directly impacted and influenced the team attacking style of Mexico.

In looking towards the final selection Klinsmann has some issues to wrestle with - how does he balance the chemistry of the "MLS Players" playing together versus those guys who play abroad - how does Altidore fit into a Diamond 4-4-2? 

He's been laboring with Sunderland this year and I'm not familiar enough with that team to know what system they operate - but given their position in the League Table it would appear they are not very good in scoring goals - which for me tends to indicate their midfield isn't that strong.  To paraphrase Harrison on this one - Jozy doesn't have the right complimentary pieces to go with his skill set...

And with a trend of American players returning stateside might we see Jozy make a transfer move similar to Bradley and Dempsey this summer?  Hard to say now but if the USMNT chemistry continues to mature, using a majority of players from MLS, it just might mean the most effective move for him is a return to America.

Before signing off I have one final postulate for consideration.  In seeing how the game went Wednesday evening - has anyone considered that - given it was a friendly - the intent of the second half might have also included studying how Mexico may adjust, in pitch activity, to the Diamond 4-4-2, in order for Klinsmann to gather data on how other opponents might adjust (real time) in the World Cup?

This also provides Klinsmann some real data to evaluate on ways he might counter the opponents counter...  I wouldn't put it past him - especially since the game wasn't a real win or lose game of consequence...

That's all for me for now... More to follow on twitter as I join the crowd at Providence Park for the Cascadia clash between Seattle and Portland.

 

 

Montreal and Philadelphia Swap Young Strikers

Okay, I'm sure by now that, given you follow our site, you've also probably been made aware of the fact that the Philadelphia Union (an underrated team in my opinion) traded their young 20-year old striker Jack McInerney to the Montreal Impact for their young 22-year old striker Andrew Wenger. The trade has a very Matt Garza for Delmon Young feel to it, leaving me with an odd taste in my mouth. Are the Montreal Impact selling low on Andrew Wenger? It's, at the very least, presumable that they know something that we don't about him and his nature. The question becomes, then, is that assessment accurate? Obviously the idea of a poacher is one that is met with a bit of contention,  in the sense of how do you measure being in the "right place at the right time" for an individual? However assessing the 86 shots taken by 'JackMac' from the 2013 season, we can know that no fewer than 57 of them came from inside the 18 yard box, courtesy of digging around on the MLS Chalkboards. It's obvious that he's a player that can get the ball in advantageous locations. Already on the season he's put together 12 shots and 11 of them have come inside the 18-yard box with 6 coming directly in front of goal. He's been appropriately tagged on twitter as a "fox in the box"---hold the sexual innuendos---and I think the term poacher probably comes naturally with that association. Unfortunately, that term may harbor and imply the idea that he's more lucky than good. I'm not sure I entirely buy that approach.

 

JmC-AWen

Meanwhile with everyone's attention directly focused on McInerney--audaciously stamped as 'The American Chicharito'--having already being called in the USMNT Camp for training during the Gold Cup, people are forgetting about Wenger and his potential that once made him a #1 overall MLS draft pick. Back in 2012, Wenger was painted as a potent and rising talent in MLS, named to MLSSoccer.com's 24 under 24 roster, coming in 7th overall. Just one year later McInerney jumped onto the list himself, rocketing to 4th overall, while Wenger was left off. The perpetual "what have you done for me lately?" seemed to come out in these rankings.

Wenger--despite all his talent--has run into a slew of various injury-related setbacks the last two seasons; it's so much failing to perform. The talent is still there, and I fully expect John Hackworth to tinker in an effort to get as much out of him as possible. The easy narrative here might just be the returning home to "revitalize his career" or something like that. Instead I think Philadelphia possibly got an undervalued piece in this move.

Looking at the last two years and a total of 31 shots Wenger has taken, 24 of those came from inside the 18-yard box, a higher percentage than that of JacMac. With that you can see above with xGpSH (expected goals per shot) that Wenger's average shot has been more likely to become a goal than that of his counterpart. Now, understand that this all comes with the requisite small sample sizes admission. Wenger has played less than half the amount of time as McInerney and has less than half the amount of shots. However, estimations based upon their current performances with creating shots has them near the same level as that of Eddie Johnson, Will Bruin and Chris Rolfe in years past.

Creating shots isn't everything. Creating shots in important positions is something. As we attempt to analyze the value of certain events on the pitch and how certain players are responsible for those events, we'll see some things and maybe understand how to assess performances. It's easy to overact to certain things that come with doing this type of analysis--- Such as McInerney, Wenger, Bruin and Rolfe all averaging about 4.0 shots created per game individually. That seems rather important, but there is additional data that is missing. How much was each shot that they created worth? What other attributes do they bring to the match? This is just an simple break down between two players and comparing how they've impacted their respective clubs.

Personally, looking at all of this data, I'm of the mindset that Montreal got the better player. However, it's extremely close and that isn't taking into account the rosters in which they are joining or how they might be utilized on the pitch with their new teams (4-3-3 concerns vs. 4-4-2 placement). I would say at this time the difference between the two is that one is younger and has more experience. That might be a bit simplistic approach but honestly both create shots the same way in the same space. McInerney does so at a higher rate but Wenger has made up for taking less shots with taking advantage of his more experienced partner, Marco Di Vaio, and feeding him opportunities.

This may be one of the more interesting trades in recent memory. I'm fascinated to watch what happens next and how each of these two players develop. Their career arcs will go a long way in providing the narrative for this trade and I'm not so certain that this is as one-sided as some people might think. Referencing baseball again, the Tampa Bay (then, Devil) Rays were largely regarded as having "sold low" on Delmon Young. We can now see, looking over the past decade,  that he never managed to put together all those tools that we once believed he had. The lesson being: don't be too quick to judge Philadelphia. This isn't necessarily going to be something as easily evaluated by just a single season, and time will reveal the significance of this day.

How It Happened: Week Four

Week four was a great week for MLS fans. It seemed like nearly every game ended with a stoppage time goal to rescue a draw or clinch a victory, and there were plenty of great goals and saves to go around. On a personal level, week four was less great: between a car breakdown, being super busy at my real job and the USA-Mexico friendly happening at 11 PM EST, I come to you for my weekly column a day late and a game short. Sincerest apologies to my loyal readers (both of you).  

Philadelphia Union 1 - 1 Montreal Impact

Stat that told the story for Montreal: Long passes and counter-attacks

mtl4

So this isn't necessarily a stat, but watching Montreal is a clear lesson in direct attacking with long passes. The image above shows all the completed passes by Montreal in the middle third of the field, and you can tell that they tend to be pretty long. And these are only the completed passes - long passes have a higher tendency to be incomplete, so in fact Montreal attempted way more long passes than are in the picture. On the bright side, Montreal has some guys who are pretty darn good at those long passes (and another who's pretty darn good on the end of them: check out this beauty that Mapp hits to Marco Di Vaio for the Impact's lone goal. This isn't new for Montreal: it's exactly how they played last year when they rolled to a hot start and then struggled mightily down the stretch. The hot start hasn't exactly happened this year; will the rest of the season play out any better?

 

Stat that told the story for Philadelphia: 3 blocked shots by Amobi Okugo Aaron Wheeler

What hurts for Philadelphia fans is that if the centerback pairing of Okugo and Wheeler had managed to block a fourth shot, the Union probably would've snatched three points instead of just one. From watching Philly a couple times now this year, it seems like their backline, particularly Okugo, blocks a ton of shots. MLS fantasy stats say Okugo is averaging 9.5 CBIs (Clearances, Blocks & Interceptions) per game, and he tallied 9 against Montreal. But only two were blocked shots, and if he had closed Marco Di Vaio down just one step earlier on that goal.... Still, MDV is a class player even at his advanced age, and Okugo has saved enough goals this year that one slip up is hardly enough to pile on the guy.

 

Seattle Sounders 1 - 2 Columbus Crew

Stat that told the story for Columbus: Location of Federico Higuain's touches

clb4 If you haven't watched any Columbus Crew games yet this season, you're missing out on the most entertaining team in the league. This tweet from Armchair Analyst Matt Doyle sums it up better than I ever could: the Crew is so fluid and so good at creating space in possession that they create a ton of chances. The straw that stirs the drink for all this is their talisman, Federico Higuain. In the past, Higuain has floated all over the attacking half of the field to get on the ball, but this year he's extended his meanderings to the entire field (see exhibit A: heat map above).

Another part of what's making Columbus so successful this year is how well the rest of the team plays off his movement. For example, when Higuain slides onto Bernardo Anor's flank, sometimes Anor or Dom Oduro or Tony Tchani makes a run off the movement to create an attacking chance. This kind of interplay is awesome to watch, and if Gregg Berhalter can keep his team's creative spark alive then Columbus could not only make the postseason, but make some noise once there.

Stat that told the story for Seattle: 20 recoveries + interceptions in attacking half

After writing an opus to Columbus' early play, it's time to bring them back down to Earth a little bit. If it weren't for the red card issued to Djimi Traore, the Crew's perfect start would've been seriously in jeopardy. Sigi Schmid came out with a good tactical plan to counteract Berhalter's attacking possession style, pressing high up the field and trying to win the ball off Columbus' defenders.

Before going a man down, the pressing led to a number of balls won in the attacking half which led directly to dangerous Seattle counterattacks. Some of this high pressing could also be attributed to the 4-3-3 that the Sounders employed in the absence of Clint Dempsey. I might be alone in this opinion, but I wouldn't mind seeing Dempsey in that formation alongside Obafemi Martins and one of Lamar Neagle/Kenny Cooper. I know Sounders fans want Dempsey to be the focal point of this team, but he might just be more effective as a complimentary piece in a balanced formation.

Agree with my assessments? Think I'm an idiot? I always appreciate feedback. @MLSAtheist

Predictive strength of Expected Goals 2.0

By Matthias Kullowatz (@MattyAnselmo)

It is my opinion that a statistic capable of predicting itself---and perhaps more importantly predicting future success---is a superior statistic to one that only correlates to "simultaneous success." For example, a team's actual goal differential correlates strongly to its current position in the table, but does not predict the team's future goal differential or future points earned nearly as well. I created the expected goals metrics to be predictive at the team level, so without further ado, let's see how the 2.0 version did in 2013.

Mid-season Split

In predicting future goals scored and allowed, the baseline is to use past goals scored and allowed. In this case, expected goals beats actual goals in its predictive ability by quite a bit.*

Predictor Response R2 P.value
xGD (by gamestate) GD (last 17) 0.805 0.000
xGD(first 17) GD (last 17) 0.800 0.000
xGA (first 17) GA (last 17) 0.604 0.000
GD (first 17) GD (last 17) 0.487 0.000
xGF (first 17) GF (last 17) 0.409 0.004
GA (first 17) GA (last 17) 0.239 0.024
GF (first 17) GF (last 17) 0.155 0.099

Whether you're interested in offense, defense, or differential, Expected Goals 2.0 outperformed actual goals in its ability to predict the future (the future in terms of goal scoring, that is). That 0.800 R-squared figure for xGD 2.0 even beats xGD 1.0, calculated at 0.624 by one Steve Fenn. One interesting note is that by segregating expected goals into even gamestates and non-even gamestates, very little predictive ability was gained (R-squared = 0.805).

Early-season Split

Most  of those statistics above showed some predictive ability in 17 games, but what about in fewer games? How early do these goal scoring statistics become stable predictors of future goal scoring? I reduced the games played for my predictor variables down to four games---the point of season we are currently at for most teams---and here are those results.

Predictor Response R2 P.value
xGD (by gamestate) GD (last 30) 0.247 0.104**
xGA (first 4) GA (last 30) 0.236 0.033
xGD(first 4) GD (last 30) 0.227 0.028
xGF (first 4) GF (last 30) 0.140 0.093
GF (first 4) GF (last 30) 0.022 0.538
GD (first 4) GD (last 30) 0.015 0.616
GA (first 4) GA (last 30) 0.003 0.835

Some information early on is just noise, but we see statistically significant correlations from expected goals on defense (xGA) and in differential (xGD) after only four games! Again, we don't see much improvement, if any at all, in separating out xGD for even and non-even gamestates. If we were to look at points in the tables as a response variable, or perhaps include information on minutes spent in each gamestate, we might see something different there, but that's for another week!

Check out the updated 2014 Expected Goals 2.0 tables, which now just might be meaningful in predicting team success for the rest of the season.

*A "home-games-played" variable was used as a control variable to account for those teams who's early schedule are weighted toward one extreme. R-squared values and p-values were derived from a sequential sum of squares, thus reducing the effects of home games played on the p-value. 

**Though the R-squared value was higher, splitting up xGD into even and non-even game states seemed to muddle the p-values. The regression was unsure as to where to apportion credit for the explanation, essentially. 

D.C. United: Shooters, Providers and What?

As you might have seen from our twitter stream, I kind of wrote an article on DC United last night. Then I scrapped it. Then, Alex Olshansky dropped this brilliant mess concerning Michael Bradley, and I was like "that's basically what I was doing... on a team level!" So it kind of nudged me to at least put forth an effort to finish it...only not really. What I did was basically compiled stats for four "core" attacking players on three different clubs. Two of those clubs (Sporting KC and Houston Dynamo) have shown consistent success the last two years, while D.C. United...well, you know, they have kind of stunk the place up.

The rest I submit to you without further inane commentary.

 

D.C. United

DC-Four

SH=shots, KP=Key Passes SH/KP = Shots/key passes ratio ShCPG =Shots created per 90 minutes played %ofTeam= the total percentage of the teams shots that the individual created

 

 

 

Houston Dynamo

Hou-Four

SH=shots, KP=Key Passes SH/KP = Shots/key passes ratio ShCPG =Shots created per 90 minutes played %ofTeam= the total percentage of the teams shots that the individual created

 

 

 

Sporting Kansas City

SportingKC-Four

SH=shots, KP=Key Passes SH/KP = Shots/key passes ratio ShCPG =Shots created per 90 minutes played %ofTeam= the total percentage of the teams shots that the individual created

Location Adjusted Total Shots Ratio

Millionaire Malcolm Forbes was famous for his quote, "He who dies with the most toys wins." And while that might not be the most moral mantra for life, sports fans have a hard time arguing with the logic. After all, a game is about runs, points or goals, and after enough of those it's about shiny trophy cases. But in the world of sports analysis there is no such victory in the absolute. Analysts need to explain how those runs, points or goals came about. In the world of soccer especially, there is never a complete answer. Goals are exceedingly rare, so explaining how they grace us with their presence mathematically is difficult, to say the least. We're happy with higher R-squareds and other such geeky descriptive metrics. Have you ever seen a trophy case filled with strong correlations? Nope, all we get is a little blog post, and if we're lucky, some twitter praise. Still, we search.... One of the more popular explanations for winning in soccer is Total Shots Ratio, which calculates the percentage of shots taken by a team in games played by that team. A 60% TSR means that a given team took 60% of the total shots fired in the games they played. The logic isn't all that difficult to wrap your head around. If you can take more shots than your opponent you are likely to score more goals. For the English Premier League, TSR explains 68% of the variance in the point table, which is impressive for one statistic. TSR happens to be less important in MLS.

data sources: AmericanSoccerAnalysis, mlssoccer.com

The variance prediction is just 37% and this is likely due to the lower finishing rates in MLS compared to the EPL, rendering shots less effective. But there are probably a number of other reasons why TSR is less predictive of points in MLS. There are a larger percentage of teams employing counterattack strategies which have significant impacts on finishing rates, which would in turn alter the effectiveness of TSR. But what if the shots were weighted to account for the location of the shots? It would be logical to assume that better teams take better shots and make it more difficult on the opposing shooters. But does that logic actually manifest itself when predicting points? ASA's Expected Goals 1.0 worked pretty well, so a TSR adjusted for shot locations ought to work better than the original TSR.

The first thing required would be a fair weighting of shots by location. To do that I took the ratio of the finishing rate by location and divided by the average finishing rate. Here is the resulting table for adjusting the value of shots.

Location Weighting
1 3.14
2 1.79
3 0.72
4 0.54
5 0.24

For the sake of simplicity I have collapsed zones 5 & 6 into a fifth zone. This table illustrates that a shot from zone 1--inside the 6-yard box--is actually worth 3.14 average shots. And a shot from zone 5 is worth just .24 average shots. Adjusting all of the shots in MLS in 2013 yields the following result when attempting to predict table points.

data sources: AmericanSoccerAnalysis, mlssoccer.com

You can tell from just eyeballing the dispersion of the data points that the location adjusted TSR better aligns with points and the Rsquared agrees. There is a 17-percent increase in R-squared. Not just pure volume of shots, but the location of those shots is vital to predicting points in MLS. It would be interesting to see if location is equally important in the EPL, where TSR is already such a strong predictor.

For the curious, the New York Red Bulls were the team that was best at getting better shots than their opponent. Their TSR improved from 47% to 52% when adjusting for shot location. Real Salt Lake actually took the biggest hit. Their TSR was 53% and their location-adjusted TSR dropped to 48%.

It's only one season's worth of data, but with such an impressive increase in the ability to explain the variance in point totals, it confirms that location does matter, and that teams are rewarded by taking better shots themselves while pushing their opponents -out farther from goal. And perhaps soccer analysts have another statistical toy to add to the toy box---Location-Adjusted Total Shot Ratio.