Game Of The Week Recap: New England Revolution vs. Philadaelphia Union

It's Monday morning! Hope you've had your coffee, been to your morning meetings and are ready to catch up on the MLS weekend. We're not probably at the point to where we're going to review games or teams on a consistent basis. That's not really our thing... at least, not yet. But Saturday on the most recent podcast, Matty and I talked about our game of the week, featuring the New England Revolution at home versus a high powered Philadelphia attack. The Union boys are a club that, in general, doesn't keep possession long, nor win it back. But they rely specifically on creating as many chances as possible and finishing the ones they are supposed too. It's partially why they are an improved club this year and one that has a legit chance to get into the playoffs and do some damage in the East. They were coming up against a New England team that averaged less ball possession, won the ball back less and took a whole lot less shots---and the Revolution was even allowing its opponents twice as many opportunities as it earned for itself.

What it came down to was that Philly was a borderline good team that sat near mid-table, and New England was arguably one of the worst-seeded among those in the bottom. The surprising thing, and partly what made us choose this game as our game of the week, was simply how split the analysts were at MLSsoccer.com. Two were for a draw, two for a Union win, and two had the Rev's with a win. All the way around it was kind of an interesting match-up of a slumping team against a club that seemed to be on it's way up.

If you didn't hear the podcast, I had the Union 2-1, and Matty went even further with a 2-0 Union beating on the road in Foxborough. Both of us look a little silly this morning with the Revolution pulling out the win. So, how exactly did this band of struggling MLS misfits steal 3-points? Simple, they finally took and finished shots.

The first capture below is the Revs and their chances created in the attacking third. This is shots, key passes and corner kicks and successful free-kicks leading to attempts.

RevsAttackingThird-20130427

The next shot is clearances, interceptions, recoveries, tackles, blocks, saves and punches made by the the keeper/back defensive four of the Union inside their own box... it's kind of a mess.

UnionD-20130427

The bottom line is that for the first time, possibly all season, the Revolution were dangerous on the attack and they not only put shots on target, they legitimately tested the opposing defense. Then, once they had a lead, they allowed their strong defense to carry them home for the full 3 points.

Almost as convicting, the Union were only able to create 6 real attempts on goal in the second half and only 4 after the Rev's finally broke the stalemate. While they weren't bad on the attacking end, it just simply didn't match what the home team was accomplishing, and it left Philly out points at the end of the day.

I think this sort of game underlines the amount of parity that is in this league right now and also the fact that you have to consider a team's incredibly poor finishing rate as not being an indication of true talent---at least, not this early in the season. New England basically out-Union'd the Union, by beating them while playing their own style of play on the pitch. Overwhelming them with shots and finishing opportunities. Both teams will face exceptionally tough tasks by playing Northwest clubs (Portland and Seattle, respectively) next week, and it should be interesting to see what comes of it.

Montreal's Paradox

If you have listened to our podcasts or read through our stuff, you will have heard us talk about shot ratios a lot. That's how many shots a team gets divided by how many shots its allows its opponents. A shot ratio of 1.5, for example, means that a team gets one-and-a-half times as many shots as its opponents. When soccer teams create extra opportunities for themselves, it generally leads to more goals and more points in the standings. And then there’s Montreal. The Montreal Impact has been something of a Cinderella story this season, at least statistically. Leading up to its matchup with the Chicago Fire on Saturday, the Impact had recorded the second-worst shot attempt ratio in the entire league. Montreal had earned just 61 shot attempts with 28 on target to its opponents’ 95 shot attempts with 32 on target.  Yet somehow, the Impact had maintained a positive goal differential (+2) and the second-most points per match right behind FC Dallas.

Against Chicago, Montreal not only won on the scoreboard two-nil, it also won the shooting and possession battles. But that is a rare feat this year for the Impact, and it’s worth posing the question: Has Montreal been lucky this season, or does it do things that shot ratios and possession just can’t explain?

Using just shots on goal for now, I regressed goal scoring ratios against shot ratios to see how teams “should do,” as if shots on goal were the only thing that matter. Even this early in the season, the regression was not all that bad (R2 = 0.4). It also said that Montreal’s 0.94 shot ratio should lead to about the same goal ratio.* Well that makes sense. If you generate roughly the same number of shots on target as your opponents, you should score about the same number of goals. The Impact, however, have scored nine goals to its opponents’ five—a 1.8 ratio, or +4 differential, if you prefer.

An obvious thing to consider is finishing rate. Despite being outshot, the Impact players finish their attempts with goals more than twice as efficiently as opponents do. That ratio is the best in the league. My first instinct is that the Impact has been somewhat lucky, and that opponents will start to finish with more frequency. But there are two possible explanations I want to explore first before waving the cliché luck flag: the quality of opportunities for Montreal and the quality of opportunities for its opponents.

Harrison talked a little bit about Montreal’s counter-attacking style during a recent podcast, and there’s a possibility that the Impact’s style allows low-quality opportunities to its opponents, leading to higher-percentage opportunities for itself on the counter attack. (Before we investigate, it should be noted that Montreal’s schedule has featured teams that average out to be, well, league-average when it comes to finishing.)

Let’s take Saturday’s match against the Fire as an example of the tools I’m using. Check out the Opta chalkboard for yourself here, and you can see from where teams are shooting and scoring by clicking the appropriate boxes for team and statistic of interest. During this particular game, I have Montreal down for 16 scoring attempts, nine from outside the box, six inside, and one from right on the edge. Both its goals were scored from inside the box (though you could argue one was one the edge). Chicago, on the other hand, earned 11 attempts, ripping seven of those from outside the box, just two from inside, and two from the edge of the box. Chicago did not score. I did this for each of Montreal's seven games this season.

Obviously things like angle matter, too, but I’m not going to pull out my protractor for this one. Here’s the breakdown for Montreal and its opponents on the season:

Attempts Goals Finishing
Stat Montreal Opponents Montreal Opponents Montreal Opponents
Inside Box

40

45

6

4

15.0%

8.9%

Outside Box

31

56

3

1

9.7%

1.8%

On Edge

6

5

0

0

0.0%

0.0%

Total

77

106

9

5

11.7%

4.7%

 

Montreal earns more shots inside the box than outside, and that might very well be a product of its system and players, rather than just dumb luck. While the Impact is being outshot in total, perhaps that stat is skewed slightly by shot selection. Montreal's system seems to create a greater proportion of opportunities in the box. I would still expect some regression from Montreal this season back toward the middle of the standings—as its shot ratios are not favorable even after adjusting for quality—but perhaps not as far as a simple shot model would suggest.

*One might note that Montreal’s attempts ratio is quite a bit worse than its shots-on-goal ratio, which isn’t even that good to begin with. It is apparently too early in the season for attempts ratios to explain much of anything with certainty, but shots models from past seasons suggests Montreal’s goal scoring ratio should probably be even worse than even-ish. That is, if shots aren't broken down by quality.

ASA Podcast: Episode IV

It's Saturday and thus time to drop yet another American Soccer Analysis Podcast on you all. As we've been previewing this past week, we're going to talk a bit about some of the up-and-coming MLS rookies that have played a big role on their teams to this point in the season. We'll add in our thoughts on using a Plus-minus statistic for measuring individual performance, as well as our selections for game of the week. Hope you enjoy.

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/asa4.mp3]

MLS Rookies: Some thoughts

Tomorrow during our podcast we'll be talking a bit about rookies, some of our thoughts on their various seasons at this juncture, and how we rack and stack them. Here are a few short profiles on the ones we'll be talking about...

CARLOS ALVAREZ, MIDFIELDER - CHIVAS USA

Alvarez does a lot of things really well. He's rotated through a few different positions in the midfield for El Chelis this season and his accumulated stats kind of reflect that.

Though interesting enough, for as up-and-down as the attack is, Alvarez hasn't touched the ball as much as you think. At only 8.62% of his teams touches, he hasn't been as involved in the total care of the ball.

CARLOS ALVAREZ, MIDFIELDER – CHIVAS USA
DISTRIBUTION Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
+Pass 0 0 5 22 29 0 39 23 118 26.22
-Pass 0 0 2 16 7 0 7 13 45 10.00
Through ball 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
+ Flick on 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 3 0.67
- Flick on 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
Lay off 0 0 0 1 1 0 7 2 11 2.44
Header 0 0 1 7 1 0 3 6 18 4.00
+ Cross 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
- Cross 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 4 0.89
Key Pass 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0.67
Assist 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SHOTS Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Goal 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.22
SonT 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 4 0.89
SoffT 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 0.67
blocked shot 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 0.67
headed SOT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
headed SoffT 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0.22
SET PIECES Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Corners into box 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
short corners 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
freekick cross 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
direct free kick on target 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
direct freekick off target 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
+ throw in 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
- throw in 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
DEFENSIVE Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
tackle won 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 5 1.11
tackle lost 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 3 0.67
defender block 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0.22
interception 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 4 0.89
clearance 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 1 5 1.11
blocked cross 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
recovery 0 0 1 13 8 0 9 6 37 8.22
corner conceded 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0.44
POSSESSION Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
+ dribble 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 3 7 1.56
- dribble 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 5 1.11
lost possession 0 0 2 20 10 0 12 16 60 13.33
fouls won 0 0 0 2 1 0 3 1 7 1.56
FOUL Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
fouls conceded 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 3 0.67
offside 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0.44
yellow card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
red card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
Misc Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Total Touches 0 0 16 90 69 0 95 85 355 78.89
Total Team Touches 0 0 669 853 790 0 1035 773 4120 915.56
Minutes 0 0 45 90 90 0 90 90 405 57.86
TotalPass% 72.39%
Team Touch% 8.62%
PLUS 224
MINUS 131
OVERALL 93
o/p90 20.67

ANDREW FARRELL, RIGHT BACK - REVOLUTION

Farrell hasn't been as conscientious as Yedlin with taking care of the ball, as his 68% passing rating is a bit low, and even more so he hasn't been very successful with his crosses. His 2 key passes are also the least among the four-some rookies.

That said he averages 25 overall plus/minus (opm) per 90 minutes and has the highest percentage of team touches 10.9%, which shows he's involved and trusted with the development of the attack. But it  also helps that he leads all the rookies in interceptions (35) and recoveries (40), too.

ANDREW FARRELL, RIGHT BACK – NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION
DISTRIBUTION Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
+Pass 0 26 31 28 31 0 20 42 178 30.23
-Pass 0 13 18 16 13 0 11 13 84 14.26
Through ball 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
+ Flick on 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
- Flick on 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0.17
Lay off 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
Header 0 2 4 1 2 0 1 2 12 2.04
+ Cross 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0.34
- Cross 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 5 0.85
Key Pass 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0.34
Assist 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SHOTS Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week2 Total Total=per90
Goal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SonT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SoffT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.17
blocked shot 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
headed SOT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
headed SoffT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SET PIECES Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week2 Total Total=per90
Corners into box 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
short corners 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
freekick cross 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
direct free kick on target 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
direct freekick off target 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
+ throw in 0 7 8 7 9 0 6 1 38 6.45
- throw in 0 2 4 7 1 0 3 1 18 3.06
DEFENSIVE Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week2 Total Total=per90
tackle won 0 2 1 3 3 0 1 2 12 2.04
tackle lost 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0.51
defender block 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
interception 0 7 5 4 5 0 10 4 35 5.94
clearance 0 2 5 7 5 0 3 5 27 4.58
blocked cross 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0.34
recovery 0 10 4 6 4 0 8 8 40 6.79
corner conceded 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.17
POSSESSION Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week2 Total Total=per90
+ dribble 0 7 0 4 7 0 0 1 19 3.23
- dribble 0 2 1 1 2 0 0 2 8 1.36
lost possession 0 16 21 18 16 0 13 17 101 17.15
fouls won 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 0.85
FOUL Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week2 Total Total=per90
fouls conceded 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0.34
offside 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
yellow card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
red card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
Misc Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Total Touches 0 100 107 105 102 0 79 103 596 101.21
Total Team Touches 0 856 915 995 880 826 975 5447 924.96
Minutes 0 90 80 90 90 0 90 90 530 75.71
TotalPass% 67.94%
Team Touch% 10.94%
PLUS 372
MINUS 222
OVERALL 150
o/p90 25.47

DESHORN BROWN, FORWARD - COLORADO RAPIDS

Brown is an exceptional and exciting talent. He does a lot of things to help the Rapids win, but unfortunately he also does things that aren't helpful. He's had a hard time holding on to the ball in the final third, despite scoring twice and adding an assist.

One thing that stands out for me is the fact that, despite his amount of time and general placement on the field, he has yet to get an off-sides call against him.

DESHORN BROWN, STRIKER – COLORADO RAPIDS
DISTRIBUTION Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
+Pass 14 7 10 16 14 6 11 0 78 11.78
-Pass 6 11 6 1 9 3 5 0 41 6.19
Through ball 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
+ Flick on 1 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 5 0.76
- Flick on 2 2 1 0 4 1 3 0 13 1.96
Lay off 6 1 4 0 3 0 5 0 19 2.87
Header 4 4 4 3 4 1 3 0 23 3.47
+ Cross 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0.30
- Cross 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 0.60
Key Pass 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 0.45
Assist 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.15
SHOTS Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Goal 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0.30
SonT 2 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 8 1.21
SoffT 2 3 2 0 2 0 5 0 14 2.11
blocked shot 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 0.45
headed SOT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
headed SoffT 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 6 0.91
SET PIECES Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Corners into box 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
short corners 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
freekick cross 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
direct free kick on target 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
direct freekick off target 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
+ throw in 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.15
- throw in 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
DEFENSIVE Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
tackle won 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 5 0.76
tackle lost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
defender block 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
interception 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0.30
clearance 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0.15
blocked cross 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0.15
recovery 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 0 8 1.21
corner conceded 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
POSSESSION Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
+ dribble 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 6 0.91
- dribble 3 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 8 1.21
lost possession 11 18 8 4 12 5 9 0 67 10.12
fouls won 0 2 1 0 3 0 2 0 8 1.21
FOUL Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
fouls conceded 2 0 2 0 0 0 4 1 9 1.36
offside 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
yellow card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
red card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
Misc Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Total Touches 90 62 48 37 59 21 62 0 379 57.23
Total Team Touches 1094 1012 681 766 887 751 839 0 6030 910.57
Minutes 83 90 80 90 90 76 87 0 596 85.14
TotalPass% 65.55%
Team Touch% 6.29%
PLUS 172
MINUS 179
OVERALL -7
o/p90 -1.06

DEANDRE YEDLIN, RIGHT BACK - SOUNDERS FC

Another exciting and pacey star, Yedlin doesn't do everything right, but he does more things right than wrong. While that sounds like a back-handed compliment, his speed is electric and game-changing.

He gets involved in the flow of the game and is constantly involved with the attack, as well as helping on defense to win the ball back.

DEANDRE YEDLIN, FULLBACK – SEATTLE SOUNDERS
DISTRIBUTION Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
+Pass 54 27 40 30 60 23 0 0 234 39.00
-Pass 11 13 13 12 19 11 0 0 79 13.17
Through ball 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0.17
+ Flick on 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
- Flick on 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
Lay off 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 0.50
Header 4 2 4 4 1 3 0 0 18 3.00
+ Cross 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 5 0.83
- Cross 2 1 2 2 3 1 0 0 11 1.83
Key Pass 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 3 0.50
Assist 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SHOTS Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Goal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SonT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SoffT 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.50
blocked shot 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
headed SOT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
headed SoffT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
SET PIECES Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Corners into box 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
short corners 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
freekick cross 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
direct free kick on target 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
direct freekick off target 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
+ throw in 6 5 3 4 8 7 0 0 33 5.50
- throw in 2 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 16 2.67
DEFENSIVE Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
tackle won 3 2 3 5 3 4 0 0 20 3.33
tackle lost 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0.67
defender block 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 5 0.83
interception 7 8 7 2 4 3 0 0 31 5.17
clearance 0 3 4 4 4 3 0 0 18 3.00
blocked cross 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 2.17
recovery 6 5 7 2 9 7 0 0 36 6.00
corner conceded 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0.50
POSSESSION Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
+ dribble 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 5 0.83
- dribble 1 1 1 5 3 2 0 0 13 2.17
lost possession 14 15 14 20 25 13 0 0 101 16.83
fouls won 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
FOUL Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
fouls conceded 1 1 3 2 2 2 0 0 11 1.83
offside 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.17
yellow card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
red card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
Misc Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Total Total=per90
Total Touches 118 92 112 101 149 83 0 0 655 109.17
Total Team Touches 1169 953 1047 876 1238 955 0 0 6238 1039.67
Minutes 90 90 90 90 90 90 0 0 540 77.14
TotalPass% 74.76%
Team Touch% 10.50%
PLUS 425
MINUS 241
OVERALL 184
o/p90 30.67

Individual Plus-minus system ideas

It's late and I have no intention of staying up past midnight for another night only to be woken by my darling, love-of-my-life, three year old at 6 o'clock wanting to play angry birds. That all said, I have been messing around with collecting various Opta data on Deshorn Brown and DeAndre Yedlin for our upcoming Saturday podcast that is going to talk specifically about limited data analysis and cross positional rankings. Without giving away too much, it gave me an idea for a plus-minus system that could potentially work if balanced correctly.

There are basic good things and bad things that occur on the pitch during the 90. Most of those things, those that involve the ball, are recorded by Opta. If you could somehow weight those events and come up with a system that associates a value to them, then you could potentially have a system that inherently grades players for how they perform on the ball across the board.

What if you associated a key pass being worth a one-third what a goal is worth, being that a third of key passes lead to goals. Maybe a clearance or block is worth---whatever that associated average is with preventing goals from being scored.

Somewhere there could be a point scale that is attributed based upon how many times those events occur on average between goal scoring events and in game states.

Matty has a nice little utility that he'll be presenting soon in regards game states. It should, to undersell it a bit, be grand and possibly allow for these events to be contextualized and valued in a more meaningful capacity.

I don't know--maybe I'm drunk with coffee and in need of sleep.

Big and Small Data

We talk and we talk about the need for more information to solve some of the problems and general questions that we have as a collective community within Soccer Analytics. Today I ran across a general post about Big Data, and the revolution of really small data. It led me back to thinking about some of the discussions that Matthias (apparently he has a real name), Keith (the missing guy in the podcasts), and I have had outside of the podcasting realms. It's not always about waiting to develop thoughts or theories until you have data, but making do with what you have at your current disposal and developing theories that later--with further advances--you can prove or disprove.

Just as we now find it ludicrous to talk of "big software" – as if size in itself were a measure of value – we should, and will one day, find it equally odd to talk of "big data". Size in itself doesn't matter – what matters is having the data, of whatever size, that helps us solve a problem or address the question we have.  - Rufus Pollock

I'm not saying that anyone is or is not doing this... it just seemed really profound after a cup a coffee and two shots of espresso, so I thought I'd mention it.

A Post about Possession Stats

First of all, I had intended to have this up this past weekend and not on Thursday, my apologies. Secondly, I hope you all went out and looked at the stat table that Matty put together. Some great accumulation of data and in a nice little format. Great information and some stuff that isn't readily available anywhere else. Consume this, stat heads.

This past weekend during our recording session we talked about possession. This has been discussed time, and time again by people much smarter than myself. I won't waste a lot of my own words except to kind of bring things together.

Get more (much more) after the jump

Graham MacAree, wrote a brilliant piece about Opta stats and how they specifically calculate possession as a whole. To save you a bit of time, the summation of the finding is that Opta, at the time, calculates possession as pass volume. Meaning if you take the entire amount of pass attempts over the 90' minutes and divide that against each of the sides pass attempts you would get the reported amount of "possession".

Richard Farely does a great summation on why that's bad.

What does this mean? Let’s take a totally fake scenario. Barcelona plays three quick passes before trying a through ball that rolls to Petr Cech. It all takes four seconds, while Petr Cech keeps the ball at his feet for eight seconds before picking it up, holding it for five seconds, then putting it out for a throw in, which takes eight more seconds to put back into play.

Despite Barcelona having possession for only four of those 25 fake seconds, they’d have 80 percent of Opta’s possession (three good passes plus one bad, while Chelsea had only Cech’s unsuccessful pass). A logical expectation of a zero-sum possession figure would have that as either 16 percent or (if you credit the time out of play as Barça’s, since they’d have the ensuing throw) 48 percent Barcelona’s. Or, if you do a three-stage model (that’s sometimes reported in Serie A matches), you’d have 16 percent Barcelona, 52 percent Chelsea, and 32 percent limbo/irrelevant.

Now I say "at the time" because I attempted to do that tonight and my math was a bit off. So it's possible they also incorporate another statistic or something a long those lines. It's highly unlikely that they have gone towards a game clock as they still report in percentages.

Now it's fair to argue that the possession stat is meaningless, as Rui Xu (follow him on twitter, seriously, do it now) of Sporting Kansas City Performance and Statistical Analytics department thinks the following:

In general, I think they’re useless because they don’t contain any context. There is little-to-no correlation with points (if anything, there’s a slightly negative correlation in the MLS), and it doesn’t really tell you anything on a performance analysis level. Once you start adding context is when you’ll be able to draw some narratives. What is the possession percentage of the road team after they go up 1-0?  What was it before?  What is the possession percent of the home team when up 2-0 after the 80th minute?  You still have to be very, very cautious though.  - Numerology: How valuable is possession anyway?

But, it's countered very well by the Revolutions Timothy Crawford.

It’s hard to say exactly what possession necessarily does at this point. Barcelona out-possesses everyone, but they certainly dropped some points and big matches. There have been studies that have shown teams that win often lose the possession battle, but as my statistics classes taught me, correlation does not necessarily imply causation. No one is saying the way to win more matches is to never have the ball. It’s trying to find what part of possession is important, and then applying that to tactics.

Look, there is a mass amount of information that has basically flooded our ability to start analyzing the American version of "the beautiful game," and guess what, we're going to turn it into 1's and 0's because we're all a bunch of Yankee bastards.  But as we do that there are going to be plenty of things that we don't know. I'm not sold that Possession is useless, but I can't think of exactly what is needed to make it "good" or what "good" it could produce at distant point in the future.

Matthias at a certain point on our podcast mentioned specific time spent in attack or in the opposing third, versus the ball residing in your own defensive third.These things of course matter as they will eventually create opportunities for you or your opponent. That leads into the thought that not every chance on goal is documented by a shot. There are plenty of these that stopped just short by defenders or goal keepers making last ditch efforts.

That being said if you sit inside and lob in crosses hoping to get lucky, Charles Reep style, against a team such as San Jose or Los Angeles that is remarkably well versed in protecting such an attack, what does it really matter how much time you had in the attack. You wasted it.

That being said, Zonal Marking has done some correlative work between the relation of shots and possessions.

As you might expect, there’s a fairly obvious correlation – the more possession you have, the more shots on goal you’re likely to attempt, which is hardly a revelation.

The graph is interesting, however, for two reasons. First, because there are clear differences between the five separate leagues. Second, because there’s a handful of sides that don’t fit the pattern, and a lot of variation amongst the sides who see a lot possession.

The sides who are significantly ‘higher’ on the graph compared to the line of best fit are particularly efficient with possession – they have more shots than you’d expect for the amount of the ball they enjoy. Those who are significantly ‘lower’ are less efficient – they see a lot of the ball but record relatively few shots on goal.

Of course, being more or less efficient is not necessarily ‘better’ – because the sole purpose of possession is not to score a goal. Possession can be used as a defensive tactic to play out time when a side is ahead, and can be used to tire the opposition, before attacking more directly later on. The intention here is not to ‘rank’ sides, but to show their different styles.

I think the biggest thing is how he ended those paragraphs "but to show their different styles". I think the biggest thing that possession shows me, at least for the time being, is what type of team you are. Are you comfortable with the ball or without it? Do you run up-and-down the pitch all day, winning and then losing possession; pressing for that additional chance at goal?

Maybe current possession stats can't tell us all of that information. But looking at break downs and heat maps of possession and the pitch, where players possessed the ball the most, can supply and relate to us an (albeit short) narrative. And ultimately it's all about context and applying it to the data that we use. Understanding why we chose the data we did and then being able to articulate it back to others, who can point out deficiencies as well as some of it's strengths.

I'll include one additional link here on the back end of this thought. The site Soccer By Numbers by one Chris Anderson, producer of the book "The Numbers Game", hosted a post last year by Andrew Brocker. It doesn't really have anything different than what you've likely seen other places, however, I feel compelled to include it.

Brocker creates a neat little chart that displays the relational values between successful passing and maintaining possession of the ball between national clubs during the 2012 Euros. There are some interesting thoughts that go along with it and a tidy summary. I encourage you all to take a look.

Again, this isn't about coming to a conclusion, it's about continuing the talk and the attempt to raise the level of knowledge and understanding on a specific topic. I don't have hardly any of this figured out and I'm sure that there are much smarter people out there that could contribute much more. Should you be them or find their material, make sure you point us in that direction.

Opta loosens the chains a bit

opta

Look, it's late, you'll have to forgive the hack job JPEG above. I have no idea why I'm up besides the fact that I don't have to go to work in the morning. But with the upswing of free time, I'm just perusing the internet and generally reviewing information that I often don't find time to cruise through. While sifting through data and spending my time nodding off to sleep at my keyboard, I came across Opta's playground site where they are "opening up the database."

I'm not sure how new this is or if it is just something I missed. But I know it wasn't available the last time I was around. It's a basic request for people nerds like me (and possibly you...) to submit data requests.

An understatement would be to call this development "cool."

A lot of data within Soccer is closed off and generally leaves a lot to be desired. Being a guy that used to write a lot about baseball, it would be awful--strictly speaking from my perspective--to write about a player if the lack of overall information that was provide is akin to that of modern day soccer data.

It's safeguarded and looked after as if it was top secret defense information. To be fair, I actually think that some of that information is kept more secure than defense information. But that's not really the subject. Having the ability to submit an e-mail request for specific data is exciting. It's a marked improved over the current status quo.

Sure, you could complain about the fact that they only accept one application in all categories per email address, but who cares? It's an improvement, and here at ASA, that's what we're all about. Improvement. And soccer. And beer. So that's not what we're all about. But it's part of what we're about.

ASA Podcast: Episode III

Hello, there, you fine traveler. If you are of a west coast bias, you'll love today's show. First I have to say I'm really saddened by the fact that neither myself nor Matty worked in a "Third" joke with as much as we like to talk about cutting the field into thirds, and with this being our third podcast. *sigh* it didn't happen, maybe we'll save the jokes for Episode XXXIII. Anyway... we have the following for you.

We chronicle the life and times of your's truly, me, Harrison Crow, and little background as to why I created the site.

We talk a bit about possession stats: why they're important, why they are not, and how they are sometimes misleading. I referenced a blog post from Opta during this conversation. Please take a look, as it has a lot of really good information. I'm trying to come up with a bunch of material for a post later on today. I hope you all check it out.

We do mention Montreal and their Italian-influenced defense/counter-attack system and how it's helped them to a second-place start in the Eastern Conference.

Next, we chronicle the poor start for the Sounders, and perhaps why they have produced no goals despite an excellent possession percentage. We also mention Sporting Kansas City and the LA Galaxy, as well as the Portland Timbers and their dominance in possession.

We use the segue of the Portland Timbers to talk a little bit about Will Johnson. He's an underrated pick-up who has scored some amazing goals, and his ability to troll Alan Gordon is exceptional. Yep, he's gone for 3 games. Gordon, not Johnson...

And for those of you who didn't catch his brilliant goal at home, which effectively gave the Timbers 3 points, check it out below:

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHMV-zPqccc]

Lastly we talked about our Game of the Week, the matchup between Sporting Kansas City and the Los Angeles Galaxy. While separated by 7 points in the table--with two games in hand for LA--Tempo Free Soccer's rankings has them 1 and 2 overall in MLS. We make our picks for who we like, why, and a few little facts to back it up.

We hope you enjoy the podcast!

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/american-soccer-analysis-podcast-3.mp3]

ASA Podcast: Episode II

Hope that you all enjoyed your weekend! We're back with Episode II, where Matthias and I discuss a bit about crosses and open-field play in the midfield, and what value they can add to a club. If you care to have a deeper look at some of the numbers, Matty was nice enough to put a piece together should you care to take a look. If not, tune in to the podcast below. Hopefully we'll start producing some more content by May, and there will be a reason to check back with the site more than once a week!

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/american-soccer-analysis-podcast-2.mp3]

Also make sure to check out the YouTube video,linked below, to the SSAC13 Soccer Analytics panel. A lot of good stuff there.