North American Soccer League and its 2013 First Half

The last 12 months have been rather eventful for the North American Soccer League (NASL). A league that once folded before some of us were born has begun to become some what relevant again. Even putting aside the excitement surrounding the return of the New York Cosmos to professional soccer---a team that is surrounded and entrenched in US Soccer history---one sees how well the league fared against some of the MLS clubs. NASL knocked out two of the big dogs in the LA Galaxy (2-0, Carolina RailHawks) and Seattle Sounders FC (1-0, Tampa Bay Rowdies) this past year.

Add that to the expansion plans of the league outside of New York. This past year they've added Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Oklahoma City to their growing portfolio. These were shrewd moves to get toe holds in two cities that have limited professional sports and strengthen their ties in Florida, what with three soccer cities in South Florida and four in the Southeastern region.

The league is obviously poised for a positive return.

Living in Tampa for the next few months, I plan on taking in at least one match (this weekend in their Derby game vs. Fort Lauderdale) and checking out the scene.

Okay, there is the narrative. Let's take a look at the table and some numbers:

Shot info

Advanced Shot Info

Table Data

Okay, my new friends here in Tampa won't like this very much but Fort Lauderdale should have finished much higher in the table. The disparity in the table between Minnesota and the Strikers is amazing considering the shot data. Though, between expected points and PDO, maybe United FC finished about where they should expect.

There is surprisingly a lot of data in these supplied match reports. I know it may not seem like it, but there is. The time stamped shots can give us a bit more insight to the context of the shots. While we still can't get to know some of the players (outside of the goal scorers) as well, it helps us get to know the teams as a whole within that league.

You can say what you want, but I love the idea of NASL growing and becoming legit competition with MLS. I love USL, NASL and MLS playing in the Open Cup, and I love seeing the sport grow in the country.

I'll continue to throw NASL data out as I collect it. With my new city having an NASL team and a derby game this weekend, I thought it a great time to put this stuff out there. Now talk among yourselves...

A few key games this week...

Since we now have playoff and Supporters' Shield chances on the site, it provides us with a means of weighting each upcoming game by its effect on playoff odds. What if, for instance, Montreal were to lose to New England at home this weekend? There's no doubt it would hurt Montreal and keep New England alive, but just how much would it matter? The same question can be asked of the San Jose and Colorado, who play tonight. Currently, our model gives Colorado and Montreal 90.4 and 82.8 percent chances,* respectively, to make the playoffs, while San Jose and New England sit at 6.0 and 14.1 percent. Remember that our playoff chances refer to earning at least fifth place in the conference, and they do not include probability associated with ties for fifth.

I re-ran our simulations three times, accounting for the three possible conclusions to each of those games. I allowed the simulator to pick winners as usual for the other matches this week and beyond. To the results!

A San Jose tie or loss at home tonight would effectively end its chances of a playoff berth. In just 11 of the 10,000 simulated seasons (0.11%) did San Jose recover from a loss to claim a playoff spot (not counting ties for fifth), and even a tie only doubled those chances to about 0.23 percent. A win boosted its playoff chances from 6.0 to 12.0 percent. Playoffs would still not be likely for the Earthquakes, but at least a win tonight would give them something to play for in the final two games.

Their opponent, Colorado, is the West's most likely team to give up its playoff spot, according to our model. That said, its playoff chances are still quite high. Even a loss to San Jose tonight would only lower the Rapids' playoff chances to about 78.4 percent. A tie or win for Colorado tonight essentially assures it a tie-breaker-free route to the playoffs with at least 98.7 percent probability (99.9% with a win tonight).

Moving over to the East, the game most likely to swing playoff percentage points around is the Montreal---New England matchup. New England could increase its playoff chances from 14.1 to nearly 39 percent with a road win. However, like San Jose, a tie or loss would hurt New England a lot. A tie would leave New England with only about a 5.6 percent shot at the playoffs, and a loss would render the Revs' situation quite hopeless at 1.6 percent.

Conversely, a win or tie for the Montreal Impact would have a mirrored result, boosting its playoff chances to 91.0 percent with a tie and 99.2 percent with win against the Revs. Like Colorado, a loss would not ruin Montreal, and their playoff chances would sit right around 63.3 percent.

A lot of playoff probability is waiting to swing---as much as 12 percent in San Jose's case and 38 percent in New England's case. In my opinion, this speaks as much to the weight resting on these final few weeks as it does to the weight that was on the games that led us to this point. Teams like Colorado and Montreal have performed well enough in the first 30 or 31 games to put themselves in a position where a loss still leaves them with better than 50 percent chances at a playoff spot.

Oh, in case your were curious, our model gives San Jose a 39-percent shot at a win tonight, 31-percent chances of a loss, and 30-percent chances of a tie. As for New England, those probabilities are 29 percent, 39 percent and 32 percent.

*The margins of error for 95% confidence are, at most, 1.0 percent for each playoff percentage calculation.

MLS Playoff Chances

We are now including playoffs and Supporters' Shield probabilities on our MLS Tables, if you were unaware. These chances are calculated based on each team's current points and remaining schedule. The remaining game-by-game probabilities are specifically generated from the following:

• Which team is playing at home. Home teams have won nearly 50% of all MLS matches during the last three seasons. There is definitely an advantage to having a remaining schedule packed with home matches. 
• Total attempts generated and conceded. All season I have been studying the best predictive measures, and all season it's been SHOTS.
• Finishing rates for and against. Though finishing rates weren't very predictive at the season's midpoint, it turns out they're not completely worthless after at least 25 games.
• Past strength of schedule, as measured by past opponents' attempts data.
• Other variables, such as past possession percentage, were considered, but they did not help predict the outcome of the game better than those chosen above.

The above indicators were tested on the last 10 week's worth of games during the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons (well, up through the most recent week). Using a multinomial regression, I was able to calculate the influence of each indicator, and then the resulting probabilities of each of the three possible outcomes (home win, draw, away win). Once these probabilities were established, it was a matter of simulation.

My simulation was based on the game-by-game probabilities (above), and I let the computer simulate the games as though they were weighted coin flips (like how your PS3 simulates Fifa or Madden games) over and over again. So basically, I simulated the last 36 games of the season 10,000 times each, added up the total points for each team, and created 10,000 simulated tables. The POFF% probabilities is simply the proportion of times that each team earned a "clean" playoff berth---that is, ties for fifth were not included. The Shield% probability represents the proportion of times each team earned at least a share of the top position in MLS.

As an example, Portland made the playoffs 9,919 times out of the 10,000 simulated seasons, seeing its simulated probability of making the playoffs go up about 4.7% from last week after a win against the Galaxy. What might surprise you a little is that the Timbers have a very real chance (16.3%) at the Supporters' Shield, according to this model. That's up about 10% from last week.

To try to understand why Portland received such a favorable jump, consider that just about every possible thing that could have helped the Timbers' chances happened. Portland earned 3 points against a team that the model thought was pretty good (the Galaxy), Seattle and New York tied---the best possible outcome from Portland's perspective---and Sporting KC lost in a pretty big upset. Though RSL still won, that doesn't matter too much because Portland gets RSL at home, and that match will be the one that most likely determines a points winner between the two teams. Also consider that Portland has a home match against Seattle coming up. Because the model gives big boosts to home teams, the Timbers have a reasonable chance for 6-point swings against RSL and Seattle. Oh, and there's that away match at Chivas to end the season. The model thinks Portland will take three points in that one with about 50% probability,* which is quite high for any away team.

There is still a lot of fight left in the Eastern Conference playoff push, as four teams have less than 60% probability of making the playoffs. In the West, things are a little more straightforward, though San Jose has been sneaky of late, and it could potentially steal Colorado's playoff spot. The model seems to like the Galaxy's talent and schedule more than Colorado, enough to put the Rapids on the Western Conference's hot seat.

*That might seem low, but consider that Chivas has 5 wins, 7 losses and 4 draws at home this season. That means they have only lost 7/16 games at home, or about 44%. Portland's 50.3% makes more sense in that context.

How Much Difference Did Kei Kamara Make To Sporting Kansas City?

I spent some time this week riding a few planes and doing my cross-country travel thing with the family. That means a lot of distractions, which in turn leads to time reading nerdy books and listening to podcasts. I'm not sure if it was just that the Sporting KC machine was on full crisis mode or what. I happened to catch 4 different podcasts (including our own...btw what a job Drew & Matty did without me, huh? Proves I'm expendable...)  talking about Sporting and their lack of ability to facilitate a goal in the Champions League at home. Obviously that's a big deal, in part because they look to be one of the teams that will proceed on to the quarter finals next spring and continue to represent MLS. But despite them sitting pretty in the CCL and third (using points per game) in the table for the Supporter Shield, a couple of podcasts basically forecasted that they would fall a part without a "proven scorer" now that Kei Kamara has departed. Now, I have to say that I've been mildly impressed with them as a team, and their pack of forwards---featuring Claudio Bieler, Soony Saad, CJ Sapong and the recently returned Dominic Dwyer---make for an interesting four-some. That isn't including Teal Bunbury who made his return to the club after being out for a year-long rehab with a torn ACL.

My immediate reaction two weeks ago was to question the transfer the deadline deal and transfer of Kamara three weeks ago. I spent a day putting some thoughts together and then second-guessed myself that I was maybe naive. They've got quite a few weapons, and the added play of Benny Feilhaber---who admittedly I've never been a fan of---stepping into the void left by the departure of a six-foot, three-inch winger from Sierra Leone has been big. Their string of results (9 points in 3 games) made me think I was being silly.

Then today, while on the road from Atlanta, a thought crossed my mind and I decided that I would take a closer look at the numbers. I collected shot data for the matches Kamara participated in (and to the minute he was subbed in) as well as the games Sporting played without him, and I built myself a nifty little spreadsheet.

Now, before I throw these numbers at you, there is the need for a little asterisk to all this work. I'm sure it's already understood, but if not, let me make it clear: these numbers are very vague and there is still quiet a bit of noise involved. How much, I'm not sure. It's just important to recognize the difficulty of trying to measure what a team does with and without a single player, and extract the difference. I would love to quantify everything, but everything is currently unavailable. This is a very simple method in a very small sample size of a context.

To the numbers!

With Kei Kamara...

Total Minutes	1026
SHOT RATIO	2.171
KP RATIO	1.940
Goals per 90	1.930
Goals Allowed per 90	1.316
Points Per Match	1.67

And then again... only without him.

without Kamara
Total Minutes	1584
SHOT RATIO	1.527
KP RATIO	1.793
Goals per 90	1.193
Goals Allowed per 90	0.739
Points Per Match	1.63

You can see pretty the numbers plainly that the are overwhelmingly in the favor of Sporting being a better team with Kamara. And I don't think anyone would argue against it. However, the difference between the two teams should be questioned as it's possible the numbers are a result of the different system in which coach Peter Vermes implements with Kamara opposed to how he configures the team without his former star forward. I think the big stat that stands out to me is the number of goals allowed per 90 without Kamara in the starting XI. Which is pretty crazy, considering that the club actually surrenders less shots with Kamara in the line-up: 6.7 with vs. 7.4 without. This is what leads me to believe that A) the team plays a different style without him and B) that it may not be sustainable.

I wasn't on the crazy train with thinking that Sporting has all these problems and is going to eventually fall apart. I'm still cautious enough that I'm still waiting to see if they'll make a move towards the Supporters Shield with their remaining 5 matches in the season. Their shot ratio, even without Kamara, would still be best in all of MLS. So it's hard to simply throw crazy statements that this team is that much worse without him.

The bigger issue at hand for me is that Sporting was a force with Kamara. Without him, they're simply another good team in league filled with good teams. Both are sets of clubs (with and without Kamara) that are capable of winning silverware. That said, this really leads you to question why Vermes would sell off such a significant difference-maker overseas with a real shot at making a run for multiple cups at this point in the season.

The General Manager Position in MLS

During tonight's podcast we will be talking a bit about the constructs of MLS offices. It's easy to question the thinking behind transactions and player dealings. Each person has a specific idea behind the move and their own end game and plan that they wish to execute.  Personnel decision making is an important skill. We can find out more about some of the these skills if we actually know the individuals behind the desk of their respective clubs. This list is far from exhaustive. The effort is to give a single point of reference for front office types in each MLS club. The problem behind this little pilot study is that not all them are singularly responsible for the decision making as there are others: CEOs, CFOs, Presidents and a myriad of others that help influence these decisions.

That said this is a good start to getting an idea as to who is pulling some of the strings when it comes to putting together the 30-man roster and dealing with the salary cap. The list is sorted according to the current (9/4) Supporter Shield standings.

Real Salt Lake - Garth Lagerwey, General Manager & Vice President

LA Galaxy - Jovan Kirovski, Technical Director

Seattle Sounders - Adrian Hanauer, General Manager

Impact - Nick De Santis, Sporting Director/General Manager

NYRB - Andy Roxburgh, Sporting Director

Sporting KC - Peter Vermes, Team Manager & Technical Director

Philadelphia Union - Rob Vartughian, Coach & Technical Director

Colorado Rapids - Paul Bravo, Technical Director

Timbers - Gavin Wilkinson, General Manager

Whitecaps - Bob Lenarduzzi, General Manager & Team President

New Endgland Revs - Michael Burns, General Manager

Houston Dynamo - Nick Kowba, Director of Soccer Operations

FC Dallas - Fernando Clavijo, Technical Director

Chicago Fire - Javier Leon, President Soccer Operations

San Jose - John Doyle, General Manager of Soccer Operations

Columbus Crew - Brian Bliss, Technical Director

Chivas USA - Juan Francisco Palencia, Technical Director

Toronto - (formerly) Kevin Payne, General Manager & Team President 

DC United - Dave Kasper. General Manager

Personally, the three names that stand out to me are (maybe, unsurprisingly) Adrian Hanauer, Rob Vartughian and Javier Leon (though admittedly there isn't much on him). The three men are the only three to not have played professionally at any level. Something to think about and consider with these hirings.

PDO: Major League Soccer Table 7/12/13

We had a light introduction of the statistic of PDO last evening, and as promised, here is the corresponding table as it exists for Major League Soccer.

Team	Games	PPG	TSR	PDO
New England Rev.	17	1.41	0.497	1101
Portland Timbers	18	1.67	0.530	1100
Seattle Sounders FC	16	1.50	0.469	1071
FC Dallas	19	1.63	0.474	1060
Real Salt Lake	19	1.79	0.569	1049
Montreal Impact	17	1.82	0.522	1039
New York Red Bulls	19	1.47	0.480	1039
Houston Dynamo	18	1.44	0.493	1034
Vancouver Whitecaps	18	1.61	0.525	1016
Colorado Rapids	20	1.35	0.497	1016
Columbus Crew	19	1.21	0.489	1012
Philadelphia Union	19	1.42	0.520	975
L.A. Galaxy	19	1.58	0.594	967
Sporting Kansas City	19	1.58	0.603	965
San Jose Earthquakes	20	1.05	0.432	945
Toronto FC	17	0.76	0.460	940
CD Chivas USA	18	0.78	0.384	937
Chicago Fire	17	1.24	0.551	864
DC United	19	0.53	0.382	802

If you're trying to figure out what to look at, there are a couple of things that may, possibly, jump out at you. The first being the New England Revolution sandwiched between the two best teams in MLS, Portland and Montreal. Admittedly, the club has been on a sort of hot streak but it a large percentage of their PDO comes from the lack of goals they've conceded. Opposing clubs have the worst conversion rate of Goals/Shots against New England.

Similarly, you see Sporting Kansas City sitting 15th in PDO and can't help but be a little bit scared of what could come in the second half should there be positive regression. Considering all the head scratching that the media and supporters have concerning Seattle's early exploits, Sporting has gone largely unnoticed with an underwhelming start. Yet, the TSR (explanation linked--we'll get into this more down the road) is very much there and so are the points. An interesting out come for a club that (deservedly) had the hype machine cranked to full.

Oh, and DC United is definitely still a combination bad and unlucky. Sorry, Drew.

New England Revolution acquires Juan Agudelo: What does that mean?

First things first before I make fun of the Revolution (and I will).  Their defense has been---excluding the New York outlier---borderline elite this season. That's possibly one of the few reasons they're still afloat and maybe the only reason to watch them (sorry, Lee Nguyen).

Tempo-free soccer has the Revs ranked 6th in dAG (defensive attempts on goals), which is how many times an opposing team has made any attempt at their goal. Add to that that we have them ranked 2nd (6.2%) in Opposing Finishing%, which is how often a team's opponents successfully convert attempts into actual goals. They're better than every team outside of Montreal in that category.

This has all culminated in only 6 goals allowed in 9 games. Something that would be overlooked if it wasn't for their horrible attack and the need for at least some positive mention.

But now the Revs have added the young (former starlett?) Juan Agudelo, someone who saw time with the US National team only 6 months ago in Russia and didn't look awful by any stretch. To be fair, he's someone that has actually come out looking very strong for Chivas earlier this season, but he's been hampered the last few weeks with hamstring issues.

It was thought that he had mended a brewing off-season situation between himself and Chivas USA head coach, El Chelis. But of late, Chelis has given a lot of credit to his now former striker. He told MLSSoccer:

"I didn’t know what I had in Agudelo, but by having him, what I asked for doesn’t matter because Agudelo is a model. He is the natural on this team. He’s a player that has many technical qualities. He’s very involved in working to improve others."

And now he's shipped off to the greater Boston area and we are with out the full detail of the acquisition being yet to be vented  in exchange the Goats received allocation money. The spice of life and magic dust that no one talks about and everyone wants. Of course for us this isn't about the details at this point.

What Juan Agudelo will bring is spectacular things and then all together frustrating things. He averages about 16 shots on goal per 1500 minutes, a number he has yet to reach in either of his stops in Chivas or New York. A team averages a goal on 9.4% of its attempts this season, and 26.9% of its shots on goal. Using that, there's a possibility that he adds a few additional goals to the line-up. Assuming he is just average at finishing.

That said Agudelo has beat the average ratio over his 3,000 minutes, scoring 11 goals in 36 shots on goal (30.6%). Scoring goals is a skill, and though we don't know how much is luck vs. his ability, I think it's very possible that he will continue to beat the league average conversion rates.

Looking at Chris Wondolowski, Kenny Cooper and Álvaro Saborío--the top 3 scorers for 2012--they all combined to beat the league average by scoring a goal on 43.9% of their shots on target. So, we can safely attribute scoring goals on shots on target as being a skill, the only problem is trying to account for luck. That's a little difficult at this stage, and so for now, we'll just mention it.

But assuming that Agudelo is consistent and continues scoring at a high rate and matches 1500 minutes. I have him for about 6 goals this season. Right now considering their goal conversion and their already abysmal offense, the Revs are on pace for 36 goals total to end the season. Considering their ability to suppress their opponent's talent and ability to score goals I have them for 26 goals allowed, assuming they continue their defensive supremacy.

Using SoccerMetricsPythagorean this comes out at about 51 points... given the asinine goal difference. Add in the additional 6 goals that Juan Agudelo brings and that brings them to a total of 56. Basically almost a full point for each goal.

Now, I'm not about to say that the Revolution have a shot at 60 points, not in your life. But in the last 3 years the only teams to have a plus goal differential AND not make the playoffs were 2011 Chicago Fire and the 2010 Kansas City Wizards. Considering a team-wide return to a league-average ability to score goals AND adding Juan Agudelo, it's very possible that New England just moved themselves within striking distance for the 4th or 5th spot in the East.

Columbus and Philly, beware.

A thought on Big Data and Club Analysis

I talked a bit about Big vs. Small data last week--in case you missed it, go back and check it out--and we kind of talked about how you don't have to necessarily rely on the revolution of big data. There is a need to make do with what is currently available. However, while that big data is sometimes available, there are other encumbrances to deal with:

Beyond the complexity and time constraints placed on the analysis, another major obstacle faced in the job – like that faced by so many people entrusted with big data within an organisation, football club or otherwise – is to make data useful, accessible and engaging to colleagues who have little interest or experience in dealing with numbers.

This from a recent interview with Ben Smith of the development performance systems at Chelsea FC. A club that is often quoted as one of the "big-4" in the English Premier League. It's important to understand that, while many of these clubs have information at their disposal, few (if any) know or understand the practicality of implementing the information into their planning and preparation phase.

If fact, reading back on the 'Counter Attack' blog by Richard Whittal, some clubs--i.e. most--don't pay their club analysts. That should give you a brief, if not all together insulting, view of how much they respect the value of the service provided. I'm not saying they don't see it as useful in "some capacity", I just think that, in terms of how much they pay the rest of the staff, they could afford to have a full time analyst, especially for what an analyst has the potential to provide.

But it is not, of course, just the coaching and scouting staff that benefit from the big data analytics being carried out at the club, the players are also reaping the rewards of the work across the club. He says: “Every one of Chelsea’s Academy players from the age of nine has a personalised development programme."

There is some interesting stuff here to think about. It sounds a lot like how Ravi Ramineni has started helping out David Tenney, Sounders FC fitness coach, over the past 6-8 months.

By the way, h/t goes to Ravi who linked the article from his twitter.

ASA Podcast: Episode III

Hello, there, you fine traveler. If you are of a west coast bias, you'll love today's show. First I have to say I'm really saddened by the fact that neither myself nor Matty worked in a "Third" joke with as much as we like to talk about cutting the field into thirds, and with this being our third podcast. *sigh* it didn't happen, maybe we'll save the jokes for Episode XXXIII. Anyway... we have the following for you.

We chronicle the life and times of your's truly, me, Harrison Crow, and little background as to why I created the site.

We talk a bit about possession stats: why they're important, why they are not, and how they are sometimes misleading. I referenced a blog post from Opta during this conversation. Please take a look, as it has a lot of really good information. I'm trying to come up with a bunch of material for a post later on today. I hope you all check it out.

We do mention Montreal and their Italian-influenced defense/counter-attack system and how it's helped them to a second-place start in the Eastern Conference.

Next, we chronicle the poor start for the Sounders, and perhaps why they have produced no goals despite an excellent possession percentage. We also mention Sporting Kansas City and the LA Galaxy, as well as the Portland Timbers and their dominance in possession.

We use the segue of the Portland Timbers to talk a little bit about Will Johnson. He's an underrated pick-up who has scored some amazing goals, and his ability to troll Alan Gordon is exceptional. Yep, he's gone for 3 games. Gordon, not Johnson...

And for those of you who didn't catch his brilliant goal at home, which effectively gave the Timbers 3 points, check it out below:

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHMV-zPqccc]

Lastly we talked about our Game of the Week, the matchup between Sporting Kansas City and the Los Angeles Galaxy. While separated by 7 points in the table--with two games in hand for LA--Tempo Free Soccer's rankings has them 1 and 2 overall in MLS. We make our picks for who we like, why, and a few little facts to back it up.

We hope you enjoy the podcast!

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/american-soccer-analysis-podcast-3.mp3]

ASA Podcast: Episode II

Hope that you all enjoyed your weekend! We're back with Episode II, where Matthias and I discuss a bit about crosses and open-field play in the midfield, and what value they can add to a club. If you care to have a deeper look at some of the numbers, Matty was nice enough to put a piece together should you care to take a look. If not, tune in to the podcast below. Hopefully we'll start producing some more content by May, and there will be a reason to check back with the site more than once a week!

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/american-soccer-analysis-podcast-2.mp3]

Also make sure to check out the YouTube video,linked below, to the SSAC13 Soccer Analytics panel. A lot of good stuff there.