If there is one thing that 2020 has taught us so far, it’s that viruses are incredibly difficult to defeat, and that the math around them is difficult to calculate and convey -- much, much more difficult to create and understand than, say, an expected goals model in soccer. This is why months after COVID-19 emerged experts are still arguing over the data related to testing, cases, and hospitalizations, not to mention treatment options.

We are not epidemiologists, but we do like our data. While there probably should not be an MLS is Back tournament in Orlando starting this week, at this point there will be, and once again the math is causing problems for MLS. While MLS HQ fixed the issues with how teams advance out of groups, COVID-19 in the Disney World MLS bubble (The Bubble) is not solved so easily.