Game of the Week: Montreal Impact at Chicago Fire

So why this game, you ask. Real Salt Lake is hosting Houston, and the Revs travel to play the Wiz, but I picked this game instead. Despite a negative goal differential, I like Chicago in this one. I smell upset. Our MLS tables tell me that Chicago ranks 5th in the league in attempts ratio at 1.07, earning nearly 10% more shot attempts than its opponents on average. When we account for where those shots are coming from, our shot location data suggests that Chicago's goal differential should be pretty even: -0.04 expected goal differential (xGD) per game if I regress finishing rates 100%. Basically Chicago is an average team with a little bad own-goals luck. However, as I've been preaching all year, Montreal's play is seemingly unsustainable, and it is playing on the road. Despite the most points per game in MLS, Montreal owns the third-worst attempts ratio in the league, and an expected goal differential of -0.20 goals per game. The Impact may very well be the second-best team on the pitch come Saturday.

Chicago Fire Shots Data

For	Locations	Goals	GoalDistr	SOGDistr	OffDistr	BlksDistr	AttDistr	Finish%	ExpGoals
	One	5	19.2%	6.9%	2.6%	2.9%	4.2%	41.7%	4.0
	Two	16	61.5%	31.7%	31.3%	17.6%	28.2%	20.0%	14.3
	Three	3	11.5%	19.8%	16.5%	20.6%	18.7%	5.7%	3.2
	Four	1	3.8%	22.8%	19.1%	25.0%	21.8%	1.6%	2.8
	Five	1	3.8%	18.8%	28.7%	33.8%	26.4%	1.3%	1.6
	Six	0	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.1
	Total	26							26.0
Against	Locations	Goals	GoalDistr	SOGDistr	OffDistr	BlksDistr	AttDistr	Finish%	ExpGoals
	One	8	29.6%	11.5%	9.4%	2.0%	8.6%	34.8%	7.7
	Two	9	33.3%	26.4%	29.7%	15.7%	25.9%	13.0%	12.3
	Three	6	22.2%	23.0%	14.8%	31.4%	20.7%	10.9%	3.3
	Four	0	0.0%	13.8%	13.3%	21.6%	15.0%	0.0%	1.8
	Five	3	11.1%	21.8%	32.0%	29.4%	28.2%	4.0%	1.6
	Six	1	3.7%	3.4%	0.8%	0.0%	1.5%	25.0%	0.2
	Total	27							26.9
Luck	-0.1

Montreal Impact Shots Data

For	Locations	Goals	GoalDistr	SOGDistr	OffDistr	BlksDistr	AttDistr	Finish%	ExpGoals
	One	4	12.1%	5.6%	1.1%	1.5%	3.0%	50.0%	2.7
	Two	18	54.5%	30.6%	33.3%	25.4%	30.2%	22.5%	14.3
	Three	5	15.2%	25.9%	18.9%	10.4%	19.6%	9.6%	3.1
	Four	4	12.1%	18.5%	15.6%	23.9%	18.9%	8.0%	2.3
	Five	2	6.1%	19.4%	31.1%	38.8%	28.3%	2.7%	1.6
	Six	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
	Total	33							23.9
Against	Locations	Goals	GoalDistr	SOGDistr	OffDistr	BlksDistr	AttDistr	Finish%	ExpGoals
	One	4	12.9%	5.9%	2.8%	2.9%	3.8%	33.3%	4.0
	Two	15	48.4%	39.6%	32.4%	10.3%	29.9%	16.0%	16.7
	Three	5	16.1%	14.9%	9.0%	11.8%	11.5%	13.9%	2.2
	Four	6	19.4%	19.8%	13.8%	26.5%	18.5%	10.3%	2.7
	Five	0	0.0%	18.8%	39.3%	45.6%	34.1%	0.0%	2.2
	Six	1	3.2%	1.0%	2.8%	2.9%	2.2%	14.3%	0.3
	Total	31							28.1
Luck	6.2