Across recent weeks, we’ve set out to improve the performance of our in-game win probability model, while:

1. starting to take each team’s strength into account, based on its performance in prior games; and

2. introducing more fluctuation between goal-scoring events, to better reflect teams’ chance creation throughout the game.

In this article, we’ll cover our methods for accomplishing those goals, how we plan to use this new and improved model, and how deconstructing that model can teach us more about the conditions under which goal-scoring events occur.