2025 NWSL Previews: Washington Spirit and Orlando Pride
/Hello and welcome to our 2025 NWSL previews. We’ve got some new writers, some old writers, but lots of exciting analytical insights coming at you ahead of a very exciting 2025 season. You can read all of them here! We got a preview of this exact match up already, with the Spirit defeating Orlando in a penalty shootout in the Challenge Cup Final.
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Spirit Airlines Adding A New Destination: A Title?
Editor’s Note: This was written before news dropped that Washington’s Croix Bethune has been removed from the season-ending injury list and added to the active roster.
Last year marked a transition into a new era for the Washington Spirit, who played half their season under an interim manager until Champions League winning coach Jonatan Giráldez could arrive from Barcelona. A pair of rookies were pleasant surprises, with Croix Bethune and Hal Hershfelt riding their early season success to USWNT debuts. New signings Esme Morgan, Leicy Santos and Rosemonde Kouassi also arrived halfway through the season, making some highlight contributions even if they didn’t quite settle in.
Given that Washington were able to finish 2nd in the table and 3rd on xG differential during that huge period of change, expectations are massive for a more stable and settled version of the Spirit. A Challenge Cup win over Orlando despite missing a ton of key players due to injury will only boost expectations further. But those fitness concerns will need to clear up quickly if the Spirit intend to compete for the Shield.
Midfield shape questions are coming in the future
Spirit started the Challenge Cup in a 4-2-3-1 shape with Hal Hershfelt and newcomer Narumi Miura — a free agent signing from North Carolina Courage — in their double pivot. It looked similar to last year’s shape, which most commonly featured Andi Sullivan in Miura’s place. Sullivan will miss this season due to both an ACL injury and pregnancy.
But the presence of Leicy Santos might present some interesting questions for Giráldez when everyone is fit. Her arrival coincided almost perfectly with Croix Bethune’s injury last season, so Santos has slotted directly into the No. 10 role. That’s probably her best position, but she’s played plenty in a deeper role for Atlético Madrid. If Spirit ever have Santos and Bethune fit and in form at the same time, it’ll be interesting to see if Giráldez wants to fit them onto the pitch at the same time, and how he does that. Would Santos move to a deeper role, or would he change to a single holding midfielder structure, with both Santos and Bethune ahead of Hershfelt?
New arrival Rebeca Bernal could also factor into a decision about midfield shape. She’ll probably get most of her minutes at center back, but she’s played plenty of minutes as a single pivot in a 4-3-3 for both Monterrey and the Mexican national team.
The ultimate answer to Giráldez’s midfield questions might be “whatever gets the most out of Bethune,” given how prolific she was last season. Bethune racked up 5 goals and 10 assists in 1569 minutes last season, winning rookie of the year despite suffering a season-ending injury in August. She certainly got a bit lucky last year — her 10 assists came on 5.9 xA — but there’s no doubt that she was one of the league’s top playmakers. Unsurprisingly, she grades out as a huge plus passer on g+. Given Leicy Santos’ ability as a ball progressor (87th percentile for progressive passes, 90th percentile passes into the final third), I wonder if Bethune can level up her off ball movement to become the receiver of pulled strings as much as the string puller herself.
How good is Tara McKeown?
Spirit’s striker-to-defender convert won her first USWNT caps this winter, and her impressive containment of Barbra Banda in the Challenge Cup will have her stock rising higher. But McKeown doesn’t come out looking impressive by any kind of statistical analysis. It’s not particularly shocking that g+ doesn’t like her — it very rarely likes center backs who aren’t elite passers or huge volume ball-winners — but it is surprising how far down the list she falls. As far as center backs go, she has comparatively few high g+ actions, but is hardly a slouch.
McKeown is helped a bit when factoring in g-, which looks at g+ allowed to opponents in an attempt to evaluate the defensive contributions players make that might not be measured by on-ball actions, but she was still just the 20th ranked CB on Net g+ among those playing over 1000 minutes.
Measuring center back performance with models based on event data continues to be a massive struggle for Stats Nerds, and is still the one area of player scouting where That Girl Nice Watchers are going to win the battle a majority of the time. Notably, Naomi Girma comes out 18th in Net g+ in that same center back sample; I assure you every single person who writes for this website thinks that Naomi Girma is a good center back.
So what are the vibes watchers seeing, and what objective evidence exists that they’re correct? I think the main thing that makes McKeown a very good center back is her lack of any obvious deficiency. She is not the best CB in the league at any single skill, but she doesn’t suck at anything. Against FBRef’s top 9 women’s competitions, McKeown is 69th percentile for pass completion%, 66th percentile for medium pass completion%, 83rd percentile for dribblers tackled%, 68th percentile for tackles + interceptions, and 77th percentile for progressive carry distance. That’s a lot of different skills performed at an above average level.
The things that g+ dings her for, and that might hurt her USWNT career too, are: 35th percentile for aerials won%, 45th percentile for long passing%, and 43rd percentile for progressive passes.
I have no criticism for McKeown; she has made a transition from striker and quickly become, at worst, a league average starting CB, which is completely insane. To my eyes, she reads the game really well and is excellent at the CB positioning stuff we do not yet have good metrics to measure. But if she wants to take that next step — like league best XI, making every USWNT squad — her passing and on-ball defending will need to go from slightly above average to genuinely very good.
Rosemonde Kouassi breakout incoming?
Kouassi looks awfully good at trivial pursuit
Kouassi might not have gotten a ton of hype arriving from a non-traditional European power in Fleury, and a non-traditional international power in Ivory Coast. She also didn’t score in her 8 appearances last season. But she was an absolute dribbling menace, and recorded two excellent assists.
612 minutes is a small sample size, but if Kouassi can duplicate this over 1500+ minutes, she’s going to be one of the league’s most impactful attackers.
She showed that she has passing vision to go along with her dribbling ability too, notably on this excellent assist against Angel City.
Unfortunately, Kouassi starts this season with a knee injury, the severity of which has not been disclosed. Spirit did not change her roster designation between the Challenge Cup injury report and the release of their start of season roster, which is an encouraging sign that it’s not too serious and she’ll be on the pitch during the first month of the season.
Early season injuries might end up being the thing that prevents the Spirit from challenging for the Shield at the end of the year. Kouassi and Bethune aren’t the only ones missing out — Trinity Rodman and Ouleymata Sarr were unavailable for the Challenge Cup as well. If Spirit can ever get these 4 on the pitch together, I think they have the league’s strongest and best balanced attack. But right now, we don’t know if it’s ever going to happen.
All the Pride in the world
By Evan Davis
I wrote in these pages a year ago about the sneaky-strong season the Orlando Pride had in 2023. Then they signed Barbra Banda, and their ceiling of potential quickly rose. But would it be enough?
“If Banda and Luana don’t find a groove, or if Gautrat makes it three injury-plagued seasons in a row, or if nobody steps up to take Marta’s place, or if Adriana misses significant time, the house of cards can come tumbling down, fast.
“Or, everyone stays healthy, Banda becomes a superstar, and the squad coasts into the playoffs. The offseason began with a Pride team not poised to build on the successes of 2023; it ends with one of the most consequential signings in women’s soccer. Anything can happen now.”
Well, how did things work out?
For the first time since 2019, the same NWSL club won the Shield and the Championship. Last season was the Pride’s first playoff appearance since 2017, and only their second appearance in the near-decade history. And here they were, running the table on everyone who stood in their way.
Needless to say, Banda found her groove, finishing second in the league in goals scored and MVP voting. Marta rolled back the years and looked at times like her old GOAT self. Everyone else essentially had peak seasons within the savviest tactical structure in the entire NWSL, developed by head coach Seb Hines with expert recruitment by GM Haley Carter.
This year, they have kept the vast majority of their Championship squad in place, losing only Adriana to Al Qadsiah in Saudi Arabia (we know, we know). Can Big Purp run it back?
The Zambian Contingent
The discussion of the Pride naturally starts with Banda. The only reason she didn’t have the greatest season in NWSL history was because she did, and then Temwa Chawinga was better. Banda helped break the scale of what was possible.
No player in ASA’s database, man or woman, has ever produced that much dribbling value. Ever. Chawinga, naturally, tied Banda on this front, but what each were able to do with the ball at their feet before they passed or shot was brain-breaking.
The league should have frankly overruled Casey Murphy’s kick save and marked that play a goal, such was the out-of-body experience of watching Banda in that moment.
Banda’s compatriot Grace Chanda was signed last year but wasn’t fit to actually see the field. That all changes this year. They will also be joined by the young Prisca Chilufya, just joined from Juárez. A year ago, no Zambian footballer had ever suited up for an NWSL club. Now, four of them call the league home, and three on a single team, no less. Zambia is famous for its sticky heat, which means that these three attackers feel right at home in the Orlando summers.
The looming specter of regression
Numerous Pride players had the seasons of their lives last year, a culmination of nearly three years of work under Hines. Their tactical approach—a 4-4-2 mid-block out of possession, ready to spring pressing triggers in fluid, coordinated motion and spring a counter through Marta or the wingers—was a zag when everyone else in the league was zigging. Players viewed themselves in terms of roles and skills, not fixed positions. Right back Haley McCutcheon moved into central midfield. Left-sided progression artist Kerry Abello slid all the way to left back. Kyle Nadaner (née Strom) pulled inside to line up next to Emily Sams at center back when Rafaelle got injured. Angelina played deeper than she had with the Seattle Reign when Luana had to undergo chemotherapy. The deck was shuffled and the players didn’t skip a beat.
For all of their broken records and Banda sorcery, though, they may have been playing over their heads a bit. They earned 13 more points than expected, the largest gap in the league. Similar overperformance shows up in the non-penalty goals they conceded relative to the non-penalty xG they allowed.
And the players themselves were maybe not as glittering as they seemed when they were ripping other teams’ hearts out.
Which brings me to…
Rumors of Marta’s demise have been greatly exaggerated
Last year, I wrote that Hines and Carter needed to begin planning for Marta’s successor. They have likely found her in Chanda, but Marta herself—who turned 39 last month—hasn’t appeared all that interested in retreating into the shadows. Her free role as a no. 10/forward hybrid required levels of endurance few players her age can muster even in 10-minute bursts, but she logged more than 2,000, factoring in the playoffs. The G.O.A.T. had one last trophy to add to her case, and she got it.
That free role didn’t always put her in the best positions to actually receive the ball. She became a good facilitator for Banda, but otherwise, she had mere flashes of brilliance instead of long *ahem* purple patches. But Marta is Marta, which means that her flashes are other players’ hurricanes.
Will she now begin to hand Chanda the keys? If her new teammate can get going early, then Marta—who signed a two-year extension this offseason—may slowly become the bench leader that we thought she’d have to be two years ago after returning from an ACL tear. But then again, maybe the Brazilian wizard has more Braavosi in her than we thought.
Mending Pickett fences
The rumor around the Carson Pickett transfer from Racing Louisville to Orlando last summer was that Pickett, a Florida native and former Pride player, wished to be closer to home as she moved deeper into her 30s. Whether or not that was true, Orlando’s fullback depth chart was in an awkward bind. Abello and Cori Dyke (eventually) had performed seamlessly and were in a groove with the rest of the backline; why shake things up? Pickett rode the bench more than she played.
There are some left feet you risk altering team chemistry for, however.
Pickett is a much better defender than she’s often given credit for, but her service into the final third and penalty area has rarely been matched by anyone over the last three years. She is so special, and even at the age of 31, remains one of the league’s best at the position.
This logjam has resolved itself for now, with the impending arrival of Spanish right back Oihane Hernández and Pickett’s foot injury, which will keep last year’s fullback corps in place. When Pickett does get healthy, Hines needs to make a tougher choice than he did last autumn.
Second verse, same as the first
Chanda and Chilufya will likely see their fair share of playing time; Rafaelle is now healthy, which moves her back into starting XI contention; with any luck, Luana will be available to play after a long year treating her cancer; and Adriana has of course departed these shores.
Otherwise, the team that lifted two trophies last fall is exactly the same. On the positive side, their chemistry is built-in, with no need to adjust to new teammates with new tendencies and tics. On the negative side, victory might take your eye off the ball and realize that new chemistry helps players keep their edge, and maybe even grow their skillset. There are few things so dangerous as stagnation in the wake of triumph. If several players who overperformed their peripherals regress to the mean, then the lack of reinforcements could come back to bite them.
Defenses are now better prepared to deal with Banda. What squad—even Washington’s or Kansas City’s—would dare step out of a low block and risk Banda breaking more ankles? Without space to run into on or off the ball, can Banda’s movement, touch, and reads be as effective as they were last year?
How I learned to stop worrying and love the Magic Kingdom Inter&Co Stadium
This is probably all much ado about nothing. Banda is smart and savvy enough to add new dimensions to her game that will help her break through low blocks. The tactical discipline on show last year will only deepen, and remind us that soccer is a sport of 11 players, not one player. Having too much talent for too many positions is the best problem a head coach can have, and that depth which got them through tough times last year is back to plug holes as they pop open.
Our projection model still pegs them for 42 points, a very tight third behind Gotham. Given the variance of this league, that means they could run up 60 points again. Few squads are as well built as Orlando’s, and they should cruise to another home playoff game.
Now maybe the Wylfs can actually bother to promote this behemoth and pack the stadium like they do for their men’s side. Barbra Banda deserves nothing less.