2025 MLS Season Previews: St. Louis City, Philadelphia Union, Chicago Fire
/St. Louis, St. Losin’... Unless?
St. Louis City SC had a pretty gnarly 2024 season, after what felt like an exceptional 2023 maiden expansion season. We cautioned about the likely regression coming off the back of a season in which they posted the seventh highest xGD overperformance ever. Unfortunately, it came. St. Louis posted a -13 goal difference on a -10 expected goal difference in 2024, a far cry from the +18 GD-xGD of the 2023 season. More unfortunately, St. Louis also just played worse.
Without the benefit of starting many games 1-0 up after Kipp Keller inexplicably passed Joao Klauss into a breakaway, STL played from behind much more frequently, leading to an increased xG total of 47 compared to 42 in 2023. On the flip side, their xGA increased from 50 to 57. But it can’t be all negative, right? Right?
The Goalkeeping is Real
Roman Burki is certified. He had an amazing 2023 season, beating his post shot xG by between eight and ten goals. He had a very good (second best in the league) but somewhat reduced three to six goal overperformance in 2024. Great! The problem is that Burki is 34, and will not play like this forever. While I’m confident he’s good right now, I’m somewhat less confident he’s good in the future. If it all goes haywire, backup goalkeeper Ben Lundt was pretty bad in limited minutes last year by a shot stopping prospective, but had a solid career in USL behind 79 goals conceded from 86 post shot xG. I’d be hoping for a healthy Burki.
The Rest of the Team?
The jury is out. STL’s goals added difference was much better than their expected goal difference, hovering just above zero. Firmly midtable. This is hugely driven by a very strong receiving g+ for, top five in the league. Similarly, STL were top five for non-cross passes into the penalty area. Getting the ball into the box reliably is a huge positive indicator. The other teams scoringly highly on such metrics are some of the best attacks in the league, NYCFC, the Galaxy, the Union.
The problem, much more so, is that this team was a sieve defensively. St. Louis were third by receiving g+ allowed, their 57 xG allowed was second bottom in the West, only better than the Quakes. A lot of this comes down to midfield, where guys were either ineffective, or much more frequently just didn’t play. Add in a lack of passing from everyone outside of Lowen, gives you a team turning it over in midfield, and unable to defend the transitions that come. If you include g-, the measure of how much opposition attacks come through your zone, the only STL player meaningfully above zero in net goals added is Tomas Ostrak, who played 800 minutes. This is a problem to solve for new head coach and former Barclaysman Olof Mellberg.
Was the final stretch real?
Let’s get the answer out of the way early: resoundingly no. This has been an oft repeated refrain. St. Louis won four of their last eight, only lost three of their final 11. Cedric Teuchert came in, as did Marcel Hartel and put up very good numbers (if a touch finishing heater inflated), the team looked good! They looked good, the team did not. If you look at the rolling expected goal difference for the season, normalized to the opposition quality (ex. LAFC are a +1 xGD per game team, if you lose by 1 xG, it looks like a 0 for your rolling xG plot), it was some fortunate penalty luck and some hot finishing at the team level.
Red is bad. Real bad.
Putting that aside, I do think this is positive signal for 2025. Hartel and Teuchert actually were good. Ostrak and Lowen were useful players by g+, just severely minutes limited and are hopefully now in better health. You can hopefully get more minutes out of guys like Henry Kessler and Josh Yaro, and long time Bundesliga level center back Timo Baumgartl adds some more for you in that position.
Do I think this team is make the playoffs good? No, probably not. But there is upward mobility possible here. The preseason tea leaves say a 1-0 loss to New England and a 1-0 win over the Red Bulls (hello Mr. Teuchert once again), and a 1-1 draw with Austin don’t mean much (last year they went undefeated vs the LA teams and the Red Bulls). But upward mobility, yes.
‘And in this Wooden Spoon, a Union shall I throw’: Why the post-Curtin and post-McGlynn Philadelphia story might be a tragedy in 2025
Claudius, the king of Denmark who killed his brother and then married his brother’s wife to kick the curious events of Shakespeare’s classic tragedy Hamlet into motion, never really stood a chance.
He started his reign on a flimsy foundation, succeeding a popular and battle-tested predecessor who died unexpectedly (and maybe wasn’t sufficiently grieved), and it’s really on the downslide by Act V when Claudius decided to get rid of his nephew and nemesis once and for all through a plot that involved lots of lots of poison (including a poison-coated union, which is fancy talk for a pearl, which Claudius does make a pretty big show of dropping into the cup he intends to give Hamlet, declaring, “And in this cup, a union shall I throw” before doing so with lots of witnesses around).
And as there was a lot of poison not entirely in his control, you could see (because, you know, the play’s a tragedy) that it wasn’t going to go well for … well, everybody, except for maybe Fortinbras. To make this extended metaphor work, think of Ernst Tanner as Claudius and maybe a rival like the Red Bulls as Fortinbras.
The Union’s offseason experienced its first major earthquake Nov. 11, when Tanner announced head coach Jim Curtin was being dismissed after more than a decade managing the club, noting, “We have been stagnating here.” On Jan. 2, the Union announced that former St. Louis City SC head coach Bradley Carnell would be taking over in Philly, possibly leading the Union to adopt the modified energy drink soccer approach that allowed the Purina Gang to have an impressive 2023 followed by a more pedestrian 2024.
Speaking of impressive followed by pedestrian, the Union made it to the MLS Cup final two years prior and would have won it save for Gareth Bale’s one shining moment with an extra-time equalizer and a smart choice by Ilie Sánchez in the game-ending PK sequence. In 2024, the Union ended up with nearly equal expected goals for and against and a nearly equal positive and negative field tilt.
But despite overperforming its xGA – 63.63 xGA with only 56 goals allowed (which is still a lot) and landing on a goal differential of +7 – the Union lost their last three matches of the season and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017. (Remember, in their 2022 season, they only allowed 26 goals and had a goal differential of 46, but still somehow, somehow, didn’t win the Supporters’ Shield.) They also arguably did the least with the goals they did score, putting in 62 but only generating 1.09 points per game. This is how it looks via Sebastian Bush’s very useful dashboard. 62 goals for and 64 xG against is the definition of energy drink soccer.
Missing McGlynn?
But, for all the misfortune the Union experienced in 2024, they did at least get a breakout year from Jack McGlynn, and it appeared that much of what they might do in 2025 would revolve around him.
Then this happened at the American Soccer Insights conference, courtesy of Houston Dynamo FC president Pat Onstad:
That trade turned out to be McGlynn for a reported $2.1 million in cash (plus additional hefty incentives in the $1.3 million range), and given that Houston recently sent Coco Carrasquilla to Pumas, this move made a lot of sense for the one team in the deal that is not the Union.
Here’s what McGlynn did for the Union in 2024, per FBref’s numbers:
1st in completed passes (1454 out of the team’s 11,648)
2nd in attempted passes (1725 out of 15,066)
1st in progressive passes (262 out of 1258; Daniel Gazdag was 2nd with 139)
2nd in shot-creating actions (116 out of 916; Kai Wagner was first with 167)
2nd in progressive carries (46 out 455; Quinn Sullivan was first with an absurd 116)
2nd in xAG (5.1 out of 46.3) and xAG/90 (Wagner is first in both)
The Union still has a lot of its core players back for 2025: Wagner with his team-leading Elo rating of 228.3, Alejandro Bedoya (second in Elo rating with a 212.8, but turning 38 in April), Mikael Uhre (10 goals, 6 assists in 2024), and Daniel Gazdag (17 goals, 3 assists in 2024, with 13 of those goals uncharacteristically coming from open play – he had 11 PKs made in 2023 to produce the bulk of his 14 goals that season).
But given that their biggest signing so far this offseason is Jovan Lukic, described by Tanner in the club press release as “a dynamic, ball-winning midfielder who fits well into our playing style,” it’s hard to see how this 6 is going to replace all that McGlynn did (with the third highest Elo rating on the ‘24 Union) as an 8.
Sportswriter Matthew DeGeorge declared the squad a “mess” — particularly its lack of depth – following McGlynn’s exit.
He grimly assessed in his Delco Times article, “McGlynn joins the laundry list of exits since the beginning of the 2024 season: Julian Carranza, Jose Martinez, Damion Lowe, Jack Elliott and Leon Flach. They’ve been replaced by Danley Jean Jacques, Ian Glavinovich and a parade of Homegrowns.”
But they still have Andre Blake (or do they?)
The good news about goalkeeper Andre Blake (who turned 34 in November) is that he’s still performing at a consistent level. Looking at his post-shot expected goals per shot on target numbers, he’s been at 0.25 to 0.30 throughout his MLS career – and that high-water mark actually came last season.
Though he may never top his 2022 performance, with an amazing post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed total of 10.0, he still registered 2.5 to the good, and 0.20 per 90, compared to 0.30 per 90 in his banner ‘22 season.
And therein lies the issue: He only played 1108 minutes last year, allowing 14 goals in 13 matches played.
Due to injuries and scheduling conflicts (including the 2024 Copa America that sent Blake to Jamaica), the Union went with goalkeeper by committee last season, with Oliver Semmle actually getting more minutes than Blake. Here’s how they compared. (Curiously, Semmle was even better than Blake in PSxG/SoT, but you see where Blake bests Semmle.)
But, in the numbers that count most, Semmle let in 29 goals over 17 matches, and Andrew Rick joined the platoon with 12 goals allowed in six matches (540 minutes).
Circling back to Shakespeare
So, while the Union’s 2025 might not be what Horatio termed the “accidental judgments” and “casual slaughters” that led to (spoiler alert) so many deaths at the end of Hamlet, this is a team appearing more destined for the Wooden Spoon end of the spectrum than the Supporters’ Shield end of the spectrum. Key players are getting older, there aren’t enough good younger players to like-for-like replace them yet, and McGlynn’s exit could prove the difference between a team that barely gets into the playoffs and one that misses it entirely.
We had one Gregg, yes, but what about second Gregg?
I’ve been writing the Chicago Fire season preview for the past 3 years (including this preview) and one of these years my preview will include a mention of the Fire making the playoffs but unfortunately, 2025 is not that year. The Fire finished last in the Eastern conference (28th overall) in 2024 and extended their playoff drought to 7 seasons. The silver lining to the 2024 season is that it brought wholesale change to the front office and roster.
Offseason Recap
Chicago has been BUSY this offseason. Gregg Berhalter is the new head coach and director of football, with Frank Klopas stepping down as head coach and moving back into a front office role. While most folks here at American Soccer Analysis (ASA) aren’t fans of the dual coach/director of football role, Berhalter has a proven track record of success in MLS and is now employed by one of the most well funded teams in the league. They've also hired another Gregg, Gregg Broughton from Blackburn in the English Championship, as sporting director. It remains to be seen what exactly his role will look like in Chicago, but he has a wealth of experience in Europe and a background in developing the young players. Broughton has been on a number of podcasts over the offseason, where he’s talked about his career journey up until this point, which are well worth the listen. Hopefully he remembers to click submit this time.
On the player side, they've jettisoned a handful of bad contracts. Gaston Gimenez, Federico Navarro and Rafeal Czichos have all left, freeing up budget space near the top of the roster. They've made good use of their multi-club ownership structure and have sent Allan Arigoni back to FC Lugano in Switzerland after his loan ended. Also gone are rotation pieces like Fabian Herbers, Wyatt Omsberg and Spencer Richey. However, their biggest move has yet to come. With the departure of the “Powercube” Xherdan Shaqiri, the Fire are in the market for a DP number 10, with a purchase more likely to come in the summer transfer window. Of all the things Fire fans can be mad about, the one thing they can’t be is about the team's willingness to spend money. Chicago is consistently near the top of MLS in budget spend but it will be up to both Greggs to spend Mansueto’s cash more wisely than it has been before. Overall, the Fire are only returning 62% of their minutes played last year, as of February 9th, which is good for bottom five in MLS.
Big Jack
The Fire made use of the internal free agency market to shore up their defense with the signing of Jack Elliott, formerly of the Philadelphia Union. Elliott helped anchor a strong Union defense for the last couple years (exact maybe last year) and was a nominee for MLS Defender of the Year. Elliott ranked among the top centerbacks by ASA’s own goals added metric for the last three seasons. At 6’6” he should provide Chicago with a solid aerial option and good distribution from the backline. He and Teran should form a nice duo and make Chris Brady’s job in 2025 easier.
Bamba Time
The biggest splash (by roster designation, and not by height) this offseason was acquiring winger Jonathan Bamba from Celta de Vigo in Spain. He joins the roster as a designated player but for only a relatively small transfer fee of $2 million. Bamba profiles as a dynamic left winger who’ll be able to press in Gregg Berhalter’s system. He ranked in the 93rd percentile for interceptions relative to other wingers and attacking midfielders. There are some familiar names in his “Similar Players” section on FBref that will stand out to folks that follow European soccer. Paired with new signing Philip Zinckernagel on the right and a potential breakout year from Brian Gutierriez, Bamba will be an integral part of revamped attacking line for Chicago.
Bamba may be a little past his best years, but at one point he was an extremely dynamic scorer in France opposite another Fire DP target in Jonathan Ikone. Bamba is older and has been worse of late than this player, but his Ligue 1 profile was not altogether dissimilar from eventual MLS bombshell Denis Bouanga’s at Saint Etienne. This one could be fun.
Wrap Up
Fire fans should be excited going into the 2025 season. Their roster is in a good place with a strong spine and there’s still room to add a couple pieces in the summer. The Fire should challenge for, if not secure, a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. How this upcoming season goes will depend on how strong the backline is and the quality of service that Hugo Cuypers can get. The long term trajectory of Chicago is on the upswing.