2024 NWSL Season Previews: Washington Spirit and Orlando Pride
/We’re releasing team previews ahead of the NWSL season that kicks off on Saturday, March 16! Day four covers the Washington Spirit and Orlando Pride. You can find all of our season previews here!
Is the “Style of Play” in the room with us right now?
Well, I never been to Spain, but I kinda like the soccer.
I don’t know if we’re ready yet to talk about the Washington Spirit’s regular season finale, where Trinity Rodman was issued a controversial red card in the 23rd minute of action, but that game seemed to sum up the 2023 season. The Spirit were an up-and-down team last year, and at times found themselves anywhere from the middle of the pack to the top of the table. They ultimately finished the year in eighth place on 30 points, thanks to a number of missed opportunities, and a whole lot of draws. Despite spending the entire season in the top six in the rankings, the Spirit failed to make the playoffs. That’s not too shocking, though, because it’s hard to dream of a playoff run when you finish the season with a -3 goal differential.
The season can really be divided into two halves. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, the team was 6-1-5, with a +6 goal differential, scoring 18 goals, with an xG of 17.88. But in the back half of the season, the team won just once, with a total record of 1-5-4, with a -8 goal differential, scoring just eight goals, despite an xG of 14.06. That midpoint lines up relatively closely with the World Cup, which took six Spirit players away on international duty. That may explain some of the trouble, but Washington’s issues stretched through the fall, so the World Cup excuse falls miserably short.
In the end, Washington were third to last in goals scored (25), despite being third in xG (31.95) in the regular season, 7.43 points behind their expected goal differential.
New Era of Coaching
Following their lackluster season, the Washington Spirit parted ways with their coach, Mark Parsons, after just one season. The team was largely quiet before rumors of a major transfer started circulating in the Spanish media. After much commotion, the team formally announced the hiring of Jonatan Giráldez. He is currently the coach of the FC Barcelona Femení, and during his tenure, he won one Queen’s Cup, two Supercopas, two Primera División titles, and the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League title.
He will not, however, come over to coach the Spirit until after the completion of his season in Spain, which could be as late as July. In the meantime, the Spirit have named Adrián González as the interim head coach. González was previously head coach of RCD Espanyol Femení. These hires usher in new conversations about a new, different playing style. Barcelona plays “a distinct possession-based, intricate passing style.” This now leads to the questions: how will that translate in the NWSL? How will that translate to the Washington Spirit?
The team is rather cagey, seemingly secretive about the current plans for the style of play, but looking at the possession data from last season, there remains a lot of work to do. The Spirit ranked second to last in possession, and dead last for passing accuracy. This is a team whose passing networks looked more like abstract art than the textbook 4-3-3’s Giraldez’s Barcelona have been putting up (seriously, click that hyperlink. It’s 4-3-3 for dummies)
The 2024 Season
It’s quite hard to imagine what this season will look like with such significant changes, especially when the Spirit traded away three key pieces of their starting line up, Ashley Sanchez, Sam Staab, and Dorian Bailey. I’d love to sit here and talk about how much the Spirit have lost, but let’s try to look forward.
Two Big Signings
Defender Casey Krueger was the first blockbuster signing by the Washington Spirit, coming from the Chicago Red Stars, who are also in the midst of a rebuild. With a defensive line that still has more questions than answers, getting veteran leadership, with 42 senior USWNT caps, is a critical piece to this rebuild™.
Krueger is someone who can do it all, and can act as an anchor to a defense that has relied heavily on support from up top, potentially leaving room for Trinity Rodman to stay higher, and find more space. And if it’s one thing Casey Krueger does, it’s create chances, especially off that left side. I’m excited to see the link up between Krueger and Rodman.
The second big signing was Brittany Ratcliffe, an attacking midfielder from the North Carolina Courage. For a team looking to improve its passing and possession, this signing was a great fit. Ratcliffe is a great passer, and can be dangerous off the bench, with the Spirit being on the receiving end of her game changers.
What will 2024 look like if Trinity Rodman doesn’t have to do it all?
Rodman is the core of the Spirit’s attacking game, but she spends a significant amount of time dropping back into the wings of the defensive half, working outside. She has also continued her role in the team leading in ball progression. In 2023, was also ranked fourth in the league in progressive carries and second in progressive passes received, helping move the center of the offense, and creating chances.
Courtesy of sofascore
With the introduction of new attacking midfielders, and the support of a stronger defensive line with the Krueger signing, what does this new attack look like? With the Spirit’s third round draft pick, Croix Bethune, coming in this season, the first thing I thought when I watched Rodman’s assist to Jaedyn Shaw in the USA v. Colombia Gold Cup game was, “Could this be Rodman to Bethune?”
There are still a lot of unknowns this season and a lot to dig into. How will Tara McKeown continue to grow in her transition, after being converted from a forward to a center back? Will No. 9 Ashley Hatch, who thrives in higher possession games, translate that success in this system? Who else does a more possession style play benefit? How will the rookies contribute? A lot of unknowns as the team starts a brand new season, with a brand new coach, with brand new faces, for another rebuild of sorts - maybe third time's the charm?
The Pride Slapped a Banda-Aid on It
There are two ways to discuss the 2024 Orlando Pride: before March 5th, and after March 5th.
That was the day the news broke that Zambian forward Barbra Banda would be moving from Shanghai to Orlando for the second-highest transfer fee in women’s soccer history. One can’t discuss the team with any cogency without acknowledging that line of demarcation, because before March 5th, the Pride looked like its usual hot-mess self.
The 2023 regular season helped color that perception. The team didn’t accrue any points until the fifth game of the year. Their -3.9 non-penalty xG differential in those first four games was worst in the league. Orlando were a disaster in just about every aspect of their performances. That belief among fans and pundits was unshakable for months.
Primacy bias is a helluva drug, though. From their first win of the season in late April, no team in the league accrued more points than the Pride. Only San Diego conceded fewer non-penalty xG, by a mere 0.37. Their 3.98 npxGD in that timeframe sat fourth. If you slice out the first month of the year, Orlando played like a playoff team.
They very nearly were one, despite that awful first month. Only a two-goal swing of goal difference kept the Pride out of the quarterfinals.
Adriana proved to be the signing of the season, playing like an MVP candidate for long stretches and accruing 10 non-penalty goals plus assists against eight npxG+xA. Bright topped all rookies with six non-penalty goals against 4.5 npxG, and made a very strong case for Rookie of the Year. Madril justified her status as the No. 3 overall pick, posting an above-average g-/96 figure; to demonstrate strong off-the-ball positional discipline as a rookie center back (non-Girma category) is no small thing. Kylie Strom and Haley McCutcheon were arguably the best fullback pairing in the league, both finishing in the top 10 by Net g+/96 among the 25 fullbacks to log at least 1,000 regular-season minutes.
Carter had stumbled into a really good team. What would she do in the offseason to make them better? Initially, not much. She signed Brazilian No. 6 Luana, traded allocation money and an international roster spot to Kansas City for Morgan Gautrat, signed Simone Charley, and traded Messiah Bright to Angel City for $130,000 in intra-league transfer funds. Carter had shored up central midfield, but was now bereft of attackers. Marta recently turned 38. Charley promptly ruptured her Achilles for the second year in a row and would be out all season. Adriana can’t do everything; who, pray tell, is going to score the goals?
THE LEGEND OF BARBRA BANDA
The first thing to note is that Banda is the culmination of an emerging team philosophy that Carter has shaped. No NWSL team’s preseason roster includes more non-American players than the Pride. Marta has always been good at keeping half of the Brazil women’s national team around her at Inter&Co Stadium, but the squad now counts Brits, Swedes, and Zambians among its ranks.
Banda is unlike any player the Pride have ever had, though. Marta was 31 when she joined the club in 2017; Banda is about to enter her prime at age 24. Her $740,000 buyout clause with Shanghai was in place for a reason. She is a preternaturally gifted No. 9 who announced herself on the world stage at the 2021 Olympics by doing something no player had ever done before in the competition: score back-to-back hat tricks.
Game state and quality of opposition aside, the clips amply demonstrate Banda’s gifts. Her disappointing 2023 World Cup in New Zealand—no non-penalty goals and only 0.13 npxG/90 across the group stage—was a byproduct of the lack of quality elsewhere in the side, itself an outgrowth of an indifferent federation and an abusive coach who the federation refused to remove.
Pound for pound, Banda enters the season as one of the most talented strikers in the NWSL already. Bright’s absence cried out for a high-octane center forward; in Banda, Carter found one.
Banda’s reputation precedes her, but what will she actually be in the NWSL? There is no publicly available advanced data or video of Banda playing for Shanghai, so it’s difficult to know what kind of a player she is in a week-to-week club environment. The NWSL is the most competitive league in the world, and the jump in team strength from the Chinese Women’s Super League will be massive. Despite her age, price, and viral moments, Banda is still a bit of an unknown from the outside.
THE REST OF THE ATTACK: A LITTLE EPCOT, A LITTLE HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS, A LOT OF UNIVERSAL
Even more will be asked of Banda now that Charley is unavailable. Banda can hold up play, and Adriana can create off the dribble. Adriana’s service can unleash Banda’s speed and ability to open up center backs.
Several younger depth options could yield fruit, but we don’t yet know. Evelina Duljan was signed from Juventus, but the 21-year-old Swede was unable to get consistent playing time with the first team. She hasn’t played a competitive club match in nearly a year. Canadian Amanda Allen just turned 19, and hasn’t been properly tested at this level yet. No. 50 overall pick Alex Kerr racked up a 70.7% forward passing percentage at Texas Tech in the fall, but can it translate to the big leagues?
What about Ally Watt and Julie Doyle, last year’s plan B? Watt certainly showed promise when she was on the field, and may work her way into the XI in Charley’s absence. Neither she nor Doyle have proved that they are ready for everyday roles.
If Banda takes some time to get her sea legs, then Adriana will be the only sure thing on the forward line. I mean, third place in g+ above average/96 in the 2023 regular season sure gives you plenty of room to figure things out. North Carolina rode such an attacking strategy all the way to a playoff game at home. Carter and head coach Seb Hines would feel a lot better if yet another Brazilian winger wasn’t expected to put a team on her back; after all, without Kerolin, the Courage looked awfully shabby in that playoff loss to Gotham.
ESCAPING MARTA’S SHADOW
The more glaring issue remains creative options in attacking midfield. Marta can no longer be expected to shoulder the burden of a full-time player anymore. She’s still Marta, though, and she balled out in her age-37 season.
Lord knows, she would do it again if Hines asked it of her. But at 38 years old, a succession plan was required, and Carter took an “incomplete” on the assignment at best.
Those string-pulling responsibilities will initially fall to Kerry Abello. The 24-year-old became more integrated into the starting XI in her second pro season, and operated wider and deeper than a No. 10 would naturally live. The Pride simply don’t have any other options, however. Gautrat and Luana are both No. 6s and will likely form a double pivot to provide deeper playmaking. Who can create in the final third? Viviana Villacorta has some passing acumen, but not nearly enough to justify pushing her further up the pitch. Carter signed Angelina from the Reign, but even when she returned from her ACL tear last August, she hardly saw the field in Seattle. Can she be expected to carry the load in Marta’s absence.
Graphic courtesy of ALPHONSO: The DAVIES Database
There is another option: Ally Lemos. The No. 8 overall pick out of UCLA posted a sterling 56.3% long passing percentage as a deep-lying midfielder in the Pac-12, and her attacking upside could be harnessed with the right development approach. Will Hines go for it? There is risk involved in giving Lemos enough runway to bed in with the side, when the club clearly sees itself as a playoff contender post-Banda signing. If Adriana and Banda are forced to persistently come deep to advance the ball through the final third and into the box, they may sacrifice much of what they do best.
Hines could use Gautrat and Luana as hoofers who can launch balls upfield to the forwards, and use Adriana as the creative dribbling option. Plenty of teams win that way (cf. Wave, San Diego). Perhaps this is the moralist in me, but don’t you wish it didn’t have to be so?
There is still so much variance in the Pride’s prospects. They were an excellent defensive team once they shook off those first few results last season. Gautrat and Luana make them even stronger. Now, Rafaelle could miss significant time due to a foot injury, and a similar ailment has already lost Megan Montefusco for the whole year. Madril will be forced to carry the load. If Carrie Lawrence is 100% after her ACL rehab, she’ll likely slot in. If not, who’s left? Rookie Cori Dyke? This lack of depth demands that Anna Moorhouse’s excellent 2023 in goal wasn’t a fluke.
If Banda and Luana don’t find a groove, or if Gautrat makes it three injury-plagued seasons in a row, or if nobody steps up to take Marta’s place, or if Adriana misses significant time, the house of cards can come tumbling down, fast.
Or, everyone stays healthy, Banda becomes a superstar, and the squad coasts into the playoffs. The offseason began with a Pride team not poised to build on the successes of 2023; it ends with one of the most consequential signings in women’s soccer. Anything can happen now.