How much Skyline Chili can you eat off a Supporter’s Shield?

FC Cincinnati enters 2024 in a previously unknown situation in its Major League Soccer history - as defending Supporters’ Shield champions. FCC’s run to the Shield wasn’t a fluke, either. According to American Soccer Analysis numbers, though Cincinnati outperformed its xPoints, the team still produced the highest total in MLS in 2023. But 2024 FCC will have to adjust and evolve, like nearly all silverware winning teams.

Lucho’s Encore

The Orange and Blue’s creative core returns, providing a major boost to its hopes to defend the Shield.

Reigning MLS MVP winner Lucho Acosta, coming off a 17 goal, 10 assist season, headlines what should remain an elite attack. Acosta’s goal total was inflated by seven scored penalties and he outpaced his NPxG but his 0.31 xA/96 trailed only Thiago Almada among players who played at least 1,500 minutes.

Acosta’s ability to find the right pass or beat a defender on the dribble and Pat Noonan’s preferred game model of press and break in transition should continue to excel in 2024. If last season was any indicator of the future, Noonan took defensive responsibilities off Acosta’s plate that might otherwise be expected from an attacking midfielder in a 3-5-2 instead to play him alongside a striker out-of-possession.

Acosta’s creativity will be vital for the Orange and Blue in 2024, as it always is, but Noonan doing everything he can to put his best players in positions to succeed is a big reason for FCC’s success over the last couple years.

Finding Attacking Solutions

While we’re talking about players being put in positions to succeed, FCC will have to deal with the departures of two impact attacking players: Álvaro Barreal and Brandon Vazquez.

Vazquez, who completed a move to Monterrey in January, ended up as the biggest hole that Chris Albright had to patch in FCC’s attacking setup. Though he seemingly had a down year, Vazquez’s advanced numbers were still quite strong. In just over 2,600 minutes in 2023, Vazquez contributed 0.42 xG/96 across all competitions compared to 0.50 xG/96 across more than 2,900 minutes in 2022.

Chris Albright and Pat Noonan will seemingly turn to free agent signing Cory Baird, coming off a career best year in terms of goals, to replace Vazquez in the starting eleven. But the most direct replacement for Vazquez’s production in front of goal will almost certainly come from Aaron Boupendza. In limited minutes after joining the Orange and Blue in summer 2023, Boupendza flashed as an elite MLS striker.

Across 669 minutes, Boupendza contributed 0.70 xG and more than four shots per 96 minutes. Though those numbers will be tough to sustain over the course of the season, Boupendza should contend for the 2024 Golden Boot. Boupendza is another must-watch attacker because he’s likely to try just about anything. But he’s also demonstrated an ability to consistently find dangerous positions in the box, leading to good chances.

Baird’s inclusion in the lineup will force Pat Noonan to tweak how he wants his side to play, as the Orange and Blue won’t have an aerial outlet like Vazquez available in build-up. However, paired with the signing of Pavel Bucha from Viktoria Plzeň to replace the departing Junior Moreno in midfield, FCC looks committed to pressing aggressively up the field, potentially even more so than in 2023.

Barreal’s departure, especially so late in the offseason, is a tougher one to compensate for, at least on paper. Barreal could do things in possession that few, if any, MLS wingbacks could do. He provided width on the left, created overloads when Acosta drifted wide to his side of the field, or cut inside to find shots or play final passes to teammates in front of goal.

Barreal was widely expected to depart during the January transfer window. And when he was still nominally a member of the Orange and Blue in February, it was a short-term solution, until summer, at best. So Barreal’s departure on the eve of the season hurts but Chris Albright looks close to finalizing Barreal’s successor at left wingback in the acquisition of Luca Orellano on an initial loan with an option to buy from Vasco da Gama.

Like Barreal, Orellano previously played at Vélez Sarsfield as a winger and has little to no experience as a wingback. Given the offensive freedom Barreal enjoyed, the transition shouldn’t be too much, especially with the security blanket provided by FCC’s three centerback system plus Obi Nwobodo’s ball-winning prowess in midfield. MLS watchers will know the winger-to-wingback transition more from SuperDraft picks, not potential multi-million dollar transfers. But Albright’s confidence that Orellano can slot into Barreal’s role will be a must-watch storyline in 2024.

Centerbacks Anchoring Everything

The fact that we’ve gotten this far into the preview without mentioning the biggest free agent signing isn’t too surprising given the fireworks that the Orange and Blue could provide going forward. But the addition of Miles Robinson will provide additional quality to FCC’s three centerback setup. Robinson replaces loanee Yerson Mosquera but should offer a bit more quality on the ball, potentially helping FCC build out of the back. Robinson, playing alongside Matt Miazga and Ian Murphy, should provide one of best centerback groups in the league.

Expect to see FCC press aggressively and rely on its centerbacks to snuff out danger high up the field. The Orange and Blue will certainly concede chances when opponents are able to navigate through pressure but FCC should find enough transition opportunities to score a lot of goals, too. FC Cincinnati games should be high on neutral’s League Pass rankings given the defense of the Shield but the soccer should feature lots of scoring. And that should make for an entertaining season.

Charlie Brown Crewsmas

By Eliot McKinley

2023 was supposed to be a transitional year for the Crew with Wilfried Nancy implementing a new system with largely the same players as the year before and a playoff berth was the mark of a successful season. However, it turned out that impossible is an opinion and the Crew went out and won the whole thing. The Crew started the year with injuries across the backline and found themselves 10th in the East at the end of May. After a midseason re-tooling which included the departure of Lucas Zelarayan and Milos Degenek and the arrival of Julian Gressel, Diego Rossi, Rudy Camacho, and Malte Amundsen, the Crew turned things around and had the second best record in the league after June 1 on their way to the Cup.

Offseason Changes

As you might expect following a championship season, the Crew didn’t change too much from the 2023 squad. Columbus are returning 86% of minutes, 85% of their g+ contributions, and all eleven starters from MLS Cup. The only key departure was Julian Gressel to Miami as a free agent. The biggest incoming transfer is U-22 Initiative Marino Hinestroza from Pachuca who projects as a dribbly boi wingback/winger. The Crew added depth at midfield by signing free agent Derrick Jones, with the hope that Nancy can develop his obvious but so far largely untapped talent. To cushion the blow of Patrick Schulte’s likely absence for Olympic duty, the Crew signed Guatemalan international goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen. But the most exciting long term signing may be homegrown Taha Habroune. The 18 year old midfielder starred for the United States at the U-17 World Cup and projects to be the next Crew center midfielder to transition from the academy to the first team following in the footsteps of Wil Trapp and Aidan Morris. While he hasn’t played a lot yet, his performance for the Crew 2 Capybaras is very promising and has already gotten a taste of MLS Cup glory.

Key Question: Can the Crew stop giving up goals at the end of games?

In 2023 no team allowed more goals in second half stoppage time than Columbus. Lest you think that this is a consequence of Wilfried Nancy’s unflinching attacking style, the Crew allowed the same number of goals, six, in 2022 under Caleb Porter, who never saw a lead that couldn’t be protected (or lost) by a parked bus. Using ASA’s points added for goals which takes into account the gamestate to determine how impactful a goal is, the Crew coughed up a league leading 6.8 points in second half stoppage time in 2023. This was an improvement on the 9.5 points given up in 2022. The good news is that the underlying numbers don’t paint as bad of an issue, although they are still near the bottom of the league. If the Crew want to make a run at the Supporter’s Shield in 2024 and ensure a home path in the playoffs, they’ll have to see improvement in this area.

Key Player: Cucho

The Crew have not had a league MVP since Guillermo Barros Schelotto in 2008 and have had only one finalist since then in Kei Kamara in 2015. That will likely change this year with Cucho Hernandez. Since he joined MLS in July 2022, Cucho is third in goals scored (25), first in xG (26), first in raw total g+ (19.63), first in total g+ above average (8.5), and first in g+ above average per 96’ (0.2). Cucho’s 0.46 raw g+ per 96’ trails only Zlatan and Alberth Elis, and puts him slightly ahead of Miguel Almiron and Sebastian Giovinco. Not bad company. He’s also a complete player that is tireless on and off the ball, in and out of possession. If Cucho can continue to play like he has then the Crew will do well. The only thing that could prevent him from an MVP caliber season (besides injury) is a transfer back to Europe. Rumors swirled that an offer arrived for him from a La Liga team at the end of the last transfer window. Given his performance, this is not surprising, but a very strong offer will have to be made for Tim Bezbatchenko and the Crew to consider a transfer over the summer.

2024 Prognosis

After winning MLS Cup, expectations are high for the Crew this season. Unlike in 2020 where the Crew far exceeded their underlying numbers on the way to winning the Cup, in 2023 the results matched the expected results as one of the top teams in the league. With a full preseason to integrate all the signings made last summer and more time to refine Nancy’s system, the Crew could be even scarier in 2024 than 2023. Of course, opposing teams now have plenty of tape to try to pin down the Crew’s high flying attack. Regardless, the Crew are one of the favorites to capture the Supporter’s Shield, Leagues Cup (with a bye to the knockouts), and MLS Cup. Anything less than a trophy or two will be seen as at least a slight disappointment.

Season Prediction from my 8 year old son, Rhys

The Crew have a 80% chance of winning MLS Cup. They will get to the 2nd round of the playoffs at the least. Cucho will be their main scorer.