The Deepest Ever MLS Superdraft Statistical Deep Dive
/The data used in this project can be found and played with in a Tableau workbook at the bottom.
4500+ words on the MLS Superdraft, which will see at most 10 players earn 1000 minutes in the league? The same week that teams report to preseason, a month after the draft?
Call me crazy, but to me the draft is still interesting and exciting. In one sense, it’s a bizarre little corner of the sport copied directly from bigger leagues like the NBA or NFL. You have the whole production, breathlessly reporting each pick. There are interviews with selected players. The entire production team throws its weight behind the process.
Then, a couple weeks later, it doesn’t matter at all. People forget it happened. Picks go unsigned, or with increasing frequency return to college. Most of the players are at best preseason camp bodies, with little prospects beyond MLS Next Pro. Does the draft even matter anymore?
I still think it does. In fact, armed with new analytical tools to glean value out of data, I think it can matter as much as it ever did. With the help of Mike Imburgio and his DAVIES tool, we can take the broad level NCAA data provided by Wyscout and put it into a framework that directly compares players on the elements that matter the most when it comes to winning and losing.
DAVIES has two main components that are useful here. First is role classification. The model identifies players not by position but by what they most frequently do. This is important, because especially in college teams can have very different approaches and player profiles. Position information alone doesn’t give much information.
The second is the calculation of xG added by role. Don’t get this confused with regular xG, which is based on shots taken; this is an estimation of the expected goal difference contributed by the player across all phases of play. This can be further broken down into 5 domains, and weighed against other players with the same role. The norm group for the NCAA group is 2728 players across multiple conferences, all from the 2023 season.
The broad conclusion, based on initial analysis, is that players who were drafted were by and large very good college players. That’s a sign that production in college is at least somewhat valued in the draft. The average draftee was 80th %ile among all NCAA players in the sample for Overall xG added above role average per 90 minutes played. In terms of specific domains, draftees scored highest on box activity (81st %ile on average), showing its outsized importance in player evaluation. The draftees scored below the NCAA average for defensive metrics, showing its relative unimportance when it comes to being selected.
Atlanta United FC
Two keepers? It’s a position where there is definite value to be gained in the draft, so that makes sense, but it’s hard to see both coming out of camp still with the team. Jayden Hibbert appears to be the pick of the two - his 0.89 G/xGOT is the best among drafted keepers, and he played comfortably in possession. As a sophomore, he is still relatively young in goalkeeper terms and can learn for a year or two behind Josh Cohen. Casper Mols 1.06 G/xG is concerningly high, as it’s unlikely to improve in MLS play. Based purely on shot stopping the ground between him and Hibbert may be too big to close.
Javier Armas was classified as a playmaking deep midfielder by DAVIES and projects to be a CB/6 tweener type, but he doesn’t light up the numbers like you’d hope. Olu Oyegunle was one of just two players excluded from the data pull and traded to the Fire.
Austin FC
Austin had just two picks in the draft. They traded both, but did acquire 31st pick Bryant Farkarlun. He was flagged as a wide dribbler, but an underwhelming one even as a second round option. As a graduate student draftee, he’s got less upside than some younger options. Not really a justifiable pick in that position.
CF Montreal
It’s always interesting to see what a totally directionless team does in the draft. In this case, Montreal picked up 4 players, all with slightly different profiles. With the 10th pick they grabbed Grayson Doody, a Shielding Deep Midfielder who projects as another tweener defender type.
With the remaining picks they selected a grab back of attacking players. Malik Henry is Canadian and likely the pick of the bunch, as he put up high scores in buildup play and box activity. Strangely enough despite the high box activity he was well below average in shooting. Eli Conway is a potential draft and stash player at just 19, and Carson Hodgson rounds out the group as a solid but unremarkable attacking midfielder.
Charlotte FC
Charlotte had a very good draft, with 4 players getting picked up at a variety of positions, and highly rated players as well. The lowest scored is first pick Tyger Smalls, but I guess you have to bump him up a few slots on name alone. He’s a Direct Dribbler who scores a bit below the median draftee in every category except shooting. Jacob Babalai, from Portland University, is a more traditional forward (Poaching Forward, according to the DAVIES model) with high marks in box activity, shooting, and buildup play. Jahlane Forbes is a former attacker who seems like a candidate to transition to a wingback role as a Wide Dribbler with high scores in defending and creation.
The most interesting pick, though, is Nathan Richmond. He’s classified by the model as a direct dribbler, which can understate his overall ability to make things happen on the ball. He’s rated as one of the best chance creators in the entire draft by the DAVIES model. He’s tiny, which maybe is why he dropped so far, but he has
Chicago Fire FC
I personally really like this draft. Ok, trading up to use a 6th pick for a 1.0 G/xG goalkeeper (essentially making saves in college at exactly the expected rate) is probably an overpay of resources, but if Bryan Dowd pans out it won’t matter. Down the draft, though, the Fire really did well.
Per xG added above average, Jason Shokalook was one of the best players available, adding the 3rd most overall and the most via shooting. Chicago have struggled to find a good forward, but Shokalook could easily contend for first team minutes right away. Laurence Wootton would take an international slot, but overall was an extremely strong college player. Shane Des Flores is less chart breaking, but still looks to be decent value with the 72nd pick as a general attacking type (Progressive Forward by DAVIES)
Colorado Rapids
The Rapids certainly drafted or traded for a large number of players, and in a sense that makes sense because the draft is a numbers game. That said, none of their draftees are remarkably good. With the second overall pick, they took Wayne Frederick from Duke. Frederick is a defense first midfielder who might fill a role on the team, but a similar or better player could have been found much later in the draft. His struggles in creation and buildup, where he rates much lower than the average NCAA player, are a concern.
Nate Jones was widely regarded as one of the top CBs available, and was acquired by the Rapids for 250K GAM. That’s a significant outlay, and while Jones isn’t impressing anyone on the ball he should be a capable defender for a team that will be doing a lot of defending. Kimani Stewart-Baynes is still very young, but he’s an electric dribbler who showed a lot of promise in his first season in college. He has a good pedigree and will likely compete for a role in the Rapids right away.
Anderson Rosa and Gunnar Studenhofft are both internationals, making their progress to the first team a little more difficult. Studenhofft is already a full international with the Cayman Islands. Both are role players at best, offering some areas of strength while being limited overall.
Palmer Ault is Colorado’s real steal, a well rounded attacking midfielder who can attack off the dribble and create chances for others. He’s a high quality pick in the 2nd round, and might make some noise in the first team as the Rapids build under Chris Armas.
Columbus Crew
The Crew took three players from the draft, and did quite well. Both outfield players can potentially fit an area of need and have the kind of underlying metrics that bode well for the transition to MLS.
Jayden Da is a big forward who is active in the box, but also more than respectable in creating chances for his teammates. He’s likely to be an early option for the Crew 2, as he has a number of players in front of him in the first team, but a good performance there could lead to a promotion.
Zach Zengue is a talented right winger who could transition very easily to a right wingback role for the Crew. With the rise and potential sale of Mo Farsi there could be an open competition for minutes, and Zengue has everything it takes to be successful there.
The Crew have had success with college goalkeeper Patrick Schulte, and drafted another strong prospect in Luke Pruter out of UC Irvine. His G/xG of 0.93 is positive, but not outrageously so. If he signs with Columbus he will have a chance to prove himself with the Crew 2 first.
D.C. United
D.C. is a bit of a mess, on their third manager in four seasons after the hire of former NYRB manager Troy Lesesne. With the draft, they went fairly safe on their picks.
First, they selected hometown player Jacob Murrell from Georgetown. He’s already signed a contract, so he’s definitely going to be a piece for DC this year. The former Gatorade national player of the year is a traditional forward and does a good job getting involved in the final third, but is basically non-existent in buildup. That could be a function of Georgetown’s dominance, but it’s an area to work on.
Their second pick was Brandon Parrish out of Clemson. He primarily operated in the right half space as a buildup cog before moving the ball on to his more productive teammates. A central creator type that doesn’t get into the box or create very often might find some limited utility as a shuttler, but it’s hard to see a real path to minutes here.
The final pick was goalkeeper Nathan Crockford out of Wisconsin. His G/xG, 0.91, was the second best in the entire draft. That’s a great pick deep in the draft as a development project.
FC Cincinnati
Cincinnati is finally not a laughingstock, as the Supporter’s Shield winners made a huge step forward in 2023. With that success comes turnover, and they drafted two players to potentially step in and play a role as they try to maintain their success.
Kenji Mboma Dem is a French international Progressive Forward. With the way Cincinnati play, he should slot in fairly comfortably to a progressive forward role next to Boupendza if he can win the spot. The competition is fairly limited with a few MLS journeymen and an academy star, so Mboma Dem could reasonably make a case.
Brian Schaefer is a big combo 6/CB who is good with his feet and will be valuable depth for a team that plays 3 CBs more often than not. He has the size and skill to be an MLS player, if he can adjust to the pace of the game.
FC Dallas
Dallas has a great reputation as a developmental side, but they haven’t actually gotten that much recent talent from the draft. Nkosi Tafari is one of the few really notable draftees on their roster. This year, they selected three players in positions of relative need.
The team traded 300K in GAM to swap places with Miami for the 3rd pick, with which they took Logan Farrington. Farrington is by no means a bad player, but he’s hardly the best forward in the draft. It’s a shocking outlay for a player who probably would have been available later.
Mads Westergren seems like a real potential gem. He’s an outstanding ball player at a position of desperate need for Dallas. Yes, he’s an international, and therefore more expensive resource wise, but this is one of the rare occasions that it makes sense.
Turner Humphrey is another CB and a former teammate of Farrington. He doesn’t do anything remarkably well, but as a body in the defense has some value. North Texas SC is a good landing spot for a draftee, as the platform that has launched Ricardo Pepi, Bernard Kamungo, and many others into MLS.
Houston Dynamo FC
The Dynamo were a huge surprise in 2023, making a deep run in the playoffs and winning the US Open Cup against Messi under new coach Ben Olsen. Olsen actually winning something may have been as big of a surprise as the turnaround itself. In the draft, they continued to make bold moves, drafting two players who were both predicted to go extremely high.
Ousmane Sylla was the talisman for national champion Clemson University as a do-everything 10. He was just announced as the deserved winner of the Mac Hermann award, for the best player in college soccer. He dropped to the 55th pick behind rumors that he had no interest in MLS and would rather pursue his options overseas. Now, the rumors have shifted, and it seems like he might be signing a deal with the Dynamo after all. He’s good at basically everything, and is a candidate to change roles in the next level to fit what the team needs.
Stephen Annor Gyamfi is one of two Generation Adidas players in the draft. He fits the Poaching Forward, though he’s still extremely raw. He’s a volume scorer, something the Dynamo desperately need, and he even creates respectably for his teammates. In the NCAA he was totally uninvolved in buildup; not uncommon for a young player but a clear area to work on.
Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami had a great draft, and selected four players who scored highly on the metrics. Just one problem - they’re all internationals. As Leo Messi builds a team around him focused on his international buddies, those spots are going to be in short supply. It’s hard to imagine Miami going out on a limb to bring any of these guys in, much less all 4.
Leo Afonso is the highest rated player in the draft as a Poaching Forward who does a little bit of everything. Yannick Bright is raved about as a defensive midfielder who can also play a little CB, with sublime technical and passing skills. Pep Casas is an excellent passing midfielder who progresses play comfortably. Ryan Carmichael is a target forward who can provide options in the box or as a release valve for pressure further down the field.
All of these players are good. Hopefully they find good landing spots in USL or MLS Next Pro, because they’re in all likelihood not making it past the preseason in Miami.
LA Galaxy
The Galaxy got two players, including Tucker Lepley. He played for UCLA, so they didn’t have to go far to scout him. Good thing he’s actually pretty good! His position is yet to be determined; he was an attacking midfielder in college, but it’s unlikely that he finds himself there in MLS. He will probably need to move deeper into the midfield to make the roster.
They also selected Ethan Brandt from Western Michigan. His G/xG of 1.10 was the worst of all GKs drafted. It’s entirely possible the season was an anomaly but that suggests that he was a bit of a reach with the 46th pick.
Los Angeles FC
LAFC looked a little further afield than their crosstown rival with Georgetown captain Kenny Nielsen. Although a bit undersized, he adds a lot in buildup. If he can make the team, he may flex into a wider defensive role like a Ryan Hollingshead or Tristan Blackmon. It will take a good bit of growth to make an impact on the Western Conference champs, but it’s not out of the question.
Australian GK Jackson Lee was also selected by LAFC, but signed with new USL1 team Rhode Island FC.
Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United is a team adrift. No coach, no GM, and only plans to add them in the future sometime. That said, they did a decent job drafting for holes and some of these guys might have an impact in the coming season.
Marcus Caldeira is a solid forward, but has already announced he will return to the West Virginia Mountaineers next year. Minnesota holds his rights for the next two years. Morris Duggan and Hugo Bacharach are both CBs that could make the transition to MLS fairly successfully. Both are good passers who have the ability to play in a possession system while being physically capable of MLS play. Duggan, Bacharach and Babacar Niang are all international players and it’s unlikely all three will make the first team. Niang is an excellent winger who could transition to fullback, or add depth at a thin position for the Loons.
Nashville SC
Nashville has already signed their first college player for the 2024 season, and he wasn’t even a draftee; Forster Ajago joined the team immediately after going undrafted. He’s included in this chart as a pseudo draft pick. At Duke, Ajago was one of the leading scorers in the country, and it’s easy to see why. He’s constantly getting into the box and getting off shots.
The actual draftees are a pair of CBs in Wyatt Meyer and Kevin Carmichael. Meyer is the more productive player overall, but both will, at most, be starting with Huntsville in MLS Next Pro as the position is fairly comfortable for Nashville SC at the moment.
New England Revolution
The New England Revolution did not acquire any players in the 2024 MLS Superdraft, instead trading a first and third round pick for 100K in GAM. That’s basically nothing.
New York City FC
New York City had their highest draft pick in a while as they missed the playoffs for the first time since their expansion season. They did something completely unexpected in selecting Lipscomb sophomore Malachi Jones. Jones was not widely viewed as a top prospect, and wasn’t even invited to the College Showcase. Despite the surprise, Jones does grade out well as a Direct Dribbler on the wing. He shows a bit more creative chops than fellow draftee Taylor Calheira, but at the cost of a little less activity in the box and buildup.
Also included on this chart - though not yet signed - is former NYCFC academy player and Wake Forest graduate Prince Amponsah. Amponsah is a pure left footed ball playing CB, and would be a perfect fit for NYCFC’s possession system.
New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls drafted just a single player, Aidan O’Connor, who grades out to a fairly underwhelming center back with the 12th pick. At the same time, they signed highly touted Roald Mitchell from Wake Forest on a homegrown deal. Mitchell, who has spent time with both the USA and Trinidad and Tobago youth National Teams. Mitchell projects as a player who can make an instant impact as a role player and replacement for Tom Barlow.
Orlando City SC
Orlando under Oscar Pareja has a strong reputation in the draft. Pareja has managed to secure stars like Daryl Dike and Duncan McGuire, and in 2024 has, on paper, put together one of the better drafts in the league. That’s especially impressive considering their first pick was the 21th pick of the draft.
Jeorgio Kocevski was listed as a midfielder, and wore number 8 for the Syracuse Orange, but in many ways did a little bit of everything for his college team. DAVIES calls him a Progressive Wide Defender, and maybe he’ll end up in a wide position, but he really could play anywhere between striker and goalkeeper.
Yutaro Tsukada comes out of West Virginia, a Cinderella story in the 2023 NCAA season. The right footer operated on the left side of the Mountaineers, and may have to move around to find a home in MLS.
Filip Mirkovic is a classic playmaking midfielder, sitting deep and controlling the play. In order to really make an impact in MLS he will need to add an element to his game of getting forward and into the box, but he has the foundation that will help ease the transition. Riyon Tori was selected with the 81st pick and seems like a good candidate for the MLS Next Pro team.
Philadelphia Union
The Union drafted a player! Actually, three players! They also signed a homegrown out of Duke University. That’s a huge haul for a team that normally tries to trade away their picks for every cent of GAM they can get.
Zach Bohane is the pick of the group. He’s a Two Way Creator, a central player who has a job to do defensively but can make a difference in the defensive third as well. He seems like a natural fit for the right side of the midfield diamond preferred by Curtin. Stas Korzeniowski is a fairly odd profile for a Poaching Forward, but still has encouraging numbers. Nick Pariano is the aforementioned Homegrown signing. He might not be able to play at the point of the diamond at the MLS level, but he’s certainly going to at least get a chance to show he can do it with the Union II team.
Philadelphia’s all time great GK came from the draft, and they went back to that well with Francesco Montali. His G/xG of 0.95 is certainly promising, but not one of the better numbers available in the draft.
Portland Timbers
The Timbers have, in the last half decade, not been a particularly impressive drafting team. They found Zac McGraw and that’s about it. Of course, they haven’t been a team that’s done well integrating youth in general.
At first glance, this draft seems unlikely to change that. Kyle Linhares could be an option to provide depth at the RB position, following the traditional pathway from the attack focused Wide Dribbler to MLS fullback. Gage Guerra doesn’t pop on the numbers, but for the 69th pick there’s an element of grading on the curve. Still, better forwards were still available in the round and even after the draft.
Real Salt Lake
Another very large draft, with RSL taking 6 players, and very clear types as well. Two dribblers, two CBs, and two FBs. RSL has been a fullback heavy team and Kevin Bonilla and Ruben Mesalles are two very good ones. Bonilla is already signed to the first team, but Mesalles is the better player by both metrics. Either way, both are the kind of players that can make an impact.
The two Ball Player Central Defenders, Maximus Jennings and Josh Jones don’t grade out quite as well. Like most drafted CBs, they get into the box a lot and take shots. They aren’t as involved in buildup as even the average draft pool player.
Matthew Bell is an international from Marshall University. He’s more of an out and out scorer than Damien Barker John, who played on both wings for the Louisville Cardinals. Both offer impressive verticality but will need to show they can play in the RSL system.
San Jose Earthquakes
The San Jose Earthquake draft gives an insight into the draft process as a whole - 3 players, all from California, two from the same region. It’s a sign of a lack of effort and resources put into scouting as a whole. That’s understandable, given the history of the draft; why spend on players who might not play at all?
Beau Leroux is one of the better players in the draft. Fairly positionless, he’s categorized as a Two Way Creator and has played all over the field in wide and central positions. He could play a number of different roles at a high level.
Riley Lynch operated primarily in the right half space, cutting into the box. He can stretch the field, but is not involved in the progressive phase of play. Jamar Ricketts is listed as a defender on the draft boards, but primarily played as a left winger in college. As an above average defender but fairly normal attacker, defender is likely to be where he ends up.
Seattle Sounders FC
Seattle are a team that has consistently managed to get value from the draft, and have grabbed a few strong prospects in this one. Buba Fofanah was their last pick. He’s a very undersized forward, and an international, which probably caused him to drop to the 3rd round. He’s got great numbers but where he projects at the next level is an open question. If he finds a natural role he could be a steal.
Kalani Kossi-Rienza was a highly touted player coming into the draft. He also does not project cleanly to the next level position-wise, but may fall into the reliable fullback/wingback bucket. Finally, Antino Lopez looks like a reliable option at center back, and should be very familiar to Seattle as he came up through their academy.
Sporting Kansas City
SKC did reasonably well with their selections considering what was available. Dyson Clapier is a right footed left winger who was very productive in college. It’s an awkward fit in MLS, as inverted LW is where teams tend to spend more money. He might have to shift into the midfield or to the right side as a defender. Jonathan Robinson is a pure left footed left back. There’s alway a need for this position, and while Robinson is a little behind the draft pool in the numbers left footers often get a few extra shots.
Their first pick was Georgetown goalkeeper Ryan Schewe. It’s tough to evaluate keepers from strong programs, as they see fewer and lower quality shots than their peers. His G/xG of 0.95 is satisfactory, but there were GKs with better numbers available.
St. Louis City SC
St Louis City is quickly gaining a reputation as a practical and pragmatic team. Their approach to the draft seems to be in line with this approach. Hosei Kojima was, according to observers, a player that jumped out in the pre draft activities due to his intelligent and flexible approach to the game. He’s another player who could play multiple positions, and he should be a valuable piece of the St Louis game model. Brendan McSorley was classified as a progressive forward, and would ideally fit in St Louis as a supporting player to the natural target forwards they tend to run.
Toronto FC
Toronto drafted first, grabbed multiple players, and also signed last year’s draftee Charlie Sharp. A busy time for a team that is significantly changing styles as it transitions from the Bob Bradley era to John Herdman’s time in charge. Sharp is a big forward, but still mobile, involved in the box as well as creating chances for others.
First pick Tyrese Spicer is another forward who can attack in transition while still getting into the box and scoring goals, but was completely uninvolved in buildup at Lipscomb. Fletcher Bank is a budget wide attacker who does some things well in attack but oddly enough takes very few shots. He may be a transition candidate to a wider defensive player.
Patrick McDonald and Joey Maher are both respectable but unremarkable draftees from Indiana University. There’s definitely a chance players are selected on the reputation of the college they attend, using the opinions of a respected coaching staff as a proxy for scouting. Indiana University has produced a number of professionals, and that’s as good a low effort heuristic as any.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Wrapping up the list, Vancouver Whitecaps selected two players deep in the draft. Nicolas Fleauriau Chateau is one of the steals of the draft as a dynamic do-everything forward for St John's University. He was available at the 74th pick largely because he’s undersized and as a Canadian, but is a fantastic fit on the more blue collar Whitecaps. He makes up for his height with remarkable physicality and strong technique. The fact that he’s left footed adds value as he can play in the right half space differently than most forwards. With the sale of Simon Becher there are minutes to be found backing up Brian White and I think Fleauriau Chateau will quickly endear himself to Whitecaps fans.
Eliot Goldthorp also travels the pipeline from a New York university (Hofstra in this case) to Western Canada. He’s an odd profile that may need some adapting to MLS. He played mostly wide positions, but operated as a creator as opposed to living on take ons or crashing the box. Whether he settles in midfield or transitions to a more defensive role, it’s unlikely he’ll be operating in a similar capacity in MLS.
You made it!
Congratulations! If you made it this far, you’ve probably read more and thought more about the draftees than a lot of scouting departments did.
What was the point? To be honest, I’m not sure myself. I think it’s interesting to apply scouting tools like DAVIES to the Superdraft. There’s some follow up to be done on just what profiles of players tend to provide value at the MLS level. There’s also unquestionably still value to be found in the Superdraft, and a smart team might be able to maximize the back end of their roster through it. No matter what, as long as this little oddity continues there’s going to be something to be pulled out of it.
