What the data says about USWNT's group stage performances
/By Stephen Mayne and Holt Moriarty
The group stage has just finished and the sky is falling for fans of US Soccer. After finishing a measly second in the group and beating only Vietnam, the pundits are overwhelmingly disappointed with the performance of our squad and our coach. However, the celebrations of the team indicate they aren’t as worried.
After taking a statistical deep dive, maybe it’s not time to panic just yet. In order to understand the changes between the 2019 World Cup performance and this year’s, I compared most of the major statistical categories to find what has gotten worse, and what is better compared to the World Cup winning 2019 team.
Warning: this is all based off of only three USA games in 2023, so sample size warnings all around. Even given the small samples, there are some interesting takeaways from the data thus far.
Key areas with the greatest decline
Goals minus Expected Goals (G-xG) per 90: 0.69 vs -1.27, -284%
Assists minus Expected Assists (A-xA) per 90: 0.54 vs -0.9, -265%
The primary regression has been in the difference between expected goals and actual goals, which is also true for assists. This suggests that the USWNT is generating good chances but struggling to convert them. Depending on your level of optimism, this may be attributed to either poor luck or poor form. However, over time, these values should converge. Worth noting is that the USA dramatically overperformed their xG in 2019, so while this year’s team may be better than their results show, the 2019 team was probably worse.
Saves per 90: 1.57 vs 0, -100%
Did you know Alyssa Naeher has 0 saves so far this World Cup? That would be concerning if she had faced more than one shot on goal all tournament. One reason not to panic has been the USA's rather outstanding defense. The USWNT has the lowest xGA of all teams in the group stage, and only Jamaica has allowed fewer goals (an impressive 0 goals on 4.6 xGA).
Shot on Target percentage (SoT%): 43.2% vs 22.6%, -47.7%
Continuing from the previous point, the USWNT isn't hitting the target enough on their attempts. Alex Morgan, unfortunately, stands out with only one shot on goal from 13 attempts, a significant departure from her deadly accuracy in the last World Cup. For the USWNT to be successful, they will need to start seeing the Alex Morgan they are used to seeing. Special shout-out to Lynn Williams for leading the team with a 66.7% SoT%.
Let’s explore some areas where the USA has shown no meaningful decline or perhaps even a bit of improvement. After seeing these statistics, you may feel more optimistic about the USA’s chances moving forward.
Key areas with the greatest improvement
Attacking Third Touches per 90: 173.7 vs 188.7, +8.9%
Penalty Box Touches per 90: 32.7 vs 35.7, +9.0%
Despite seeing less of the ball, the USWNT is making more touches in dangerous areas, which indicates progress in attacking play. They've been able to move the ball well (72.2 vs 68 Progressive Passes + Carries per 90) and get to threatening positions on the field.
Crosses Per 90: 18.4 vs 29, +57.3%
Shots Per 90: 17.9 vs 20.7, +15.7%
The debate on the value of crosses continues, but more shots should be considered a good thing. Especially when you consider the xG per shot is similar in value (0.14 vs 0.12), this year’s team is certainly generating at least as many chances as the 2019 team.
Expected Goals Against (xGA) per 90: 0.6 vs 0.23, -61.1%
The lack of goals may catch headlines, but the USWNT defense has been statistically dominant, even stronger than the last World Cup. The defense is absolutely the reason that the USWNT advanced to the knockout stages, and it’s pretty difficult to lose games when your opponents score zero goals (although not impossible in knockout games I should remind you).
Let me make the optimist’s argument for the USWNT. They are creating good chances and at a high rate. They’ve also got a statistically dominant defense which has the best underlying statistics of any team. Moreover, this year’s World Cup features a more even field of competition. Unlike last year, where five out of six group winners won every game in the group stage, this year, only three out of eight group winners managed three victories. It's important to recognize that expecting this team to replicate the dominant performance of the last World Cup was unrealistic. Nonetheless, they should still be considered among the favorites of the tournament.
Honestly, a good argument, but what is the pessimist’s argument? He are some stats for those who see the 0.5 xG as half empty:
What Carli Lloyd would cite if she cared about numbers
Short Pass Completion: 84.6% vs 77.1%, -8.8%
Medium Pass Completion: 82.3% vs 73.2%, -11.1%
This US Women’s team does not pass the ball as accurately as the teams from previous years. Specifically in the medium range (between 15 and 30 yards) this team is much less likely to complete passes. This would make a pessimist worried as missed passes can lead to stifled attacks and counterattacking opportunities for opponents.
England, Spain, Japan, and Sweden combined record: 11-1-0
The competition has been more even at this World Cup compared to previous years, but unfortunately for the USWNT, the top performers are all in their path. Even with a team performing at the peak of their powers, this is a gauntlet of difficult teams to run through. What chance does an out of form team really stand?
World Cup 2019 Quarter Final: France (1.6 xG) 1 – 2 (1.2 xG) USA
World Cup 2019 Semi Final: England (1.7 xG) 1 – 2 (0.9 xG) USA
An argument from the truly mean-spirited pessimists could be “you didn’t deserve to win the last World Cup, and you’re even worse this year.” The USA is underperforming their xG from this World Cup but wouldn’t have won their last campaign without some key overperformances. If the USWNT’s goals and xG converge, they could still win their third in a row, but in a knockout tournament being out of form oftentimes means out of contention. The pessimist might just believe it isn’t our year.
Thankfully I’m not so pessimistic. So, if you're feeling down about our chances, let's take a moment to compare a certain South American team last winter with our current position:
| GD | xG | xGA | xGD | xGD/90 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 2.3 | |
| 3.0 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 |
When I believe that we will win, I almost can’t see the difference.