When and How MLS Teams use Defensive Pressure
/by Nate Gilman
In May, I took a look at pressing data, trying to assess where teams had shifted from last season to this one. Considering most places where MLS is played are experiencing summer weather, I figured it was time to check back in on how MLS clubs handled the heat and more than half a season of minutes on players’ legs. Part of the impetus for digging into pressing data now is to try to understand how things have changed since May.
Teams have changed managers and styles and they’ve added global superstars and rotation players alike. How all of those factors have impacted pressing in the league is worth examining.
The other major purpose of this piece is forward-looking. The MLS season is just about two-thirds complete and, although it’s a little bit hard to believe, the playoffs aren’t very far away. Getting a better sense of how teams have operated so far will hopefully better inform our understanding of teams as we approach the end of the season and move into the playoffs.
Assessing the season as a whole
Just looking at the overall pressing landscape in July, some immediate conclusions jump out.
First, the New York Red Bulls, who pressed the most often and most frequently in their opponents’ defensive third in May, occupy the same spot in July. And it isn’t particularly close. For the full season, the NYRB are averaging more than 190 pressures per 90 minutes and nearly 30% of those pressures are occurring in the attacking third of the field.
Most teams pressing at an above-average overall clip are not above average in the percent of those pressures occurring in the final third. However, that’s a little misleading. For example, CF Montreal pressures opponents less than almost any MLS team, and the Vancouver Whitecaps are firmly above average. Because a higher percentage of Montreal’s pressures occur in the final third and the Whitecaps press higher at a below-average rate, the raw difference per 90 minutes is about three pressures per 90 minutes. So, teams like Montreal press less overall but still look to disrupt opponents in advanced areas.
Austin FC, the LA Galaxy, and Sporting Kansas City all rank in the top-10 in terms of raw pressures in the attacking third despite pressing at below average overall rate. SKC are the only team other than the Red Bulls in the league that press opponents more often in the attacking third than in the defensive third.
Teams in the lower left quadrant of the chart (i.e., teams pressing less overall and rarely higher up the field), include Nashville, Inter Miami, Columbus, Colorado, Chicago, and Seattle.
NYCFC’s drop into the below-average pressing/less pressure up the field is an interesting development given their stylistic and tactical approach of the last few seasons.
Differences from May
So that’s the full-season story of where and how much MLS teams are pressing. How different is it from May? Unsurprisingly, very different.
Every MLS team is pressing less than they did in May. For some, like Toronto, Colorado, and Montreal, the difference is minimal. However, for the Red Bulls, Philadelphia Union, FC Cincinnati, DC United, and NYCFC, the differences are more dramatic.
Interestingly, there’s a range of changes to the percentage of pressures occurring in the attacking third of the field. NYRB, Miami, and Montreal are all pressing more in the final third, while LAFC, New England, and Columbus are pressing high up the field less than they did in May.
Entering the final third of the season, it’s worthwhile to consider where teams are trending now, too. Looking at five-game rolling averages of pressures per 90 minutes gives us a view into how teams have been operating in 2022. For the sake of simplicity, I broke this down into a two groups with illustrative examples. First up, some teams that started 2022 aggressively.
New York teams going different directions: The Red Bulls are still pressing more than any other team in MLS, but over the past five games, not so much more than others. Contrast that to NYCFC which, until recent weeks, were pressing the least of any team in MLS. The departure of Ronny Deila has seemingly already had an impact. The first five-game rolling sample for the Pigeons under new manager Nick Cushing clearly showed dialed-back pressure. How Taty Castellanos’ absence impacts (or doesn’t?) NYCFC’s pressing going forward will be worth watching as well.
Toronto’s consistency: Under first-year manager Bob Bradley, Toronto has been one of the more consistent teams in MLS in terms of pressing and frequency of pressure up the field. The system hasn’t exactly paid dividends yet, with Toronto currently sitting 13th in the Eastern Conference. However, the sheer amount of roster turnover, both outgoing and incoming, makes the Reds a team to follow.
Will Bradley strive to keep Toronto’s pressing as consistent with Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi on the field? Or will those players not be asked to carry as much of a defensive load as other wingers might be in Bradley’s system?
Philadelphia Union DNA: The Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati, two teams sharing lots of the same sporting DNA, are both still pressing more than most MLS teams but both rank below average in pressing in the attacking third. Though associated with aggressive pressing play, Jim Curtin and his former assistant, Pat Noonan, have both dialed back the frequency of their teams’ forward pressing. That’s clear when looking at the rolling averages. Noonan lowered the pressing intensity after pushing FCC to be aggressive earlier in the season. Curtin followed suit later, to the point where now, the Union are pressing less frequently than the Orange and Blue.
Where does Wayne Rooney go from here? Even after the departure of Hernan Losada in April, interim manager Chad Ashton kept DC United’s frequent pressing system intact. However, as temperatures warmed and minutes added up, DCU, like most of the league, have slowed down. The Black and Red aren’t going to get into the playoff race this year, but when Rooney gets his visa and can take charge, we should get a better sense of the type of soccer he wants to implement.
Seattle’s possible CCL hangover: Maybe Seattle hasn’t fully recovered from their victorious run in the CONCACAF Champions League or maybe it’s a deliberate choice by Brian Schmetzer. Whatever the case, Seattle are pressing less than many MLS teams and, when they do press, that pressure has frequently not been high up the field. Seattle are averaging more than 20 fewer pressures per 90 minutes in 2022 compared to 2021.
RSL & Columbus slowing down even more: Neither Real Salt Lake nor Columbus started the 2022 season with an especially aggressive pressing style of play. Both teams have slowed down in the last handful of matches, however. As Columbus look to move up the Eastern Conference and RSL try to hold onto a home playoff game, it’ll be worth following how both approach pressing for the remainder of the season.
Home and away
One last piece we can assess with 20 games of data for (just about) every team is how game plans differ at home and on the road. As we get closer to the playoffs and start thinking about individual matchups, this information could provide additional insight.
Unsurprisingly, there’s no set course of action for MLS teams when it comes to pressing more or less on the road or at home. More than half the teams in the league press opponents more on the road. The team with the biggest difference between pressures on the road and at home is Vancouver, who pressure nearly 40 more times per match on the road than at home.
NYRB, always the outlier, averages 15 more pressures at home than on the road. LAFC, the Galaxy, and DC United are other clubs that press more at home.
For six teams, Toronto, FC Dallas, Seattle, Charlotte, Philadelphia, and Minnesota, the difference between pressure rates at home or on the road is small.
Home and road splits for percent of pressures in the attacking third show that most MLS teams press more often in opponents’ defensive third at home than when playing on the road.
Colorado are a notable exception, though, pressing less in the attacking third of the field at home than when away. New England have been consistent in their game plan, pressing higher with the same frequency on the road and at home.
Looking ahead
Because of the looming 2022 World Cup starting in November, the MLS regular season ends in early October and teams have between 11 and 14 games to get into a playoff position. Everything above reflects where these teams are right now, so there’s plenty of time for things to change. Teams and managers can take new approaches and new signings or injuries could lead to a team altering their play style. The weather will (should) cool down in most MLS markets by the start of the playoffs, too.
There’s no best approach to winning the ball back in MLS, as evidenced by the variety of styles employed by successful teams. Clubs have adapted and refined game plans to suit roster builds and to compensate for weaknesses, and surely they’ll continue to adapt during the last third of the season.