2022 NWSL Season Previews: Orlando Pride, Houston Dash, and Angel City FC
/The 2022 NWSL season is nearly upon us! We’ll be publishing three team previews every weekday until the NWSL regular season opens on Friday, April 29, 2022. Previews will be released in reverse order of how each team finished in the 2022 Challenge Cup’s group stage. You can find all of them here!
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Orlando Pride: Pressley the reset button (again?)
How many times can you turn something off and turn it on again to get it to work? Well, whatever the number, the Pride are hitting the reset button for the third time:
2020: Disqualified from the Challenge Cup due to a COVID-19 outbreak, and many questionable decisions leading up to the Fall Series (including loaning out players abroad or just outright letting them go)
2021: A promising start in 2021 before Marc Skinner left to join Manchester United and results capsized
2022: You are here!
While the Challenge Cup is obviously an isolated tournament and we shouldn’t take too much stock in it, that’s exactly what I’m going to do! Things are not going well for the Pride, though that shouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. The team returns just over 51% of their players who played minutes in 2021, so much of the early season will be getting new players up to speed with the style of play and how they fit into a brand new system under new head coach Amanda Cromwell.
Roster Rejig
Marta and Sydney Leroux are two of the most experienced players who, in an ideal world, would have helped the new players/staff coalesce. Sadly, Marta was ruled out for the entire 2022 Regular Season campaign with an ACL injury. Pretty much every player outside of these two have big question marks surrounding them, so how the starting XI settles as the season progresses is very much up in the air. In the attack, the aforementioned Leroux (who, at times, was excellent in 2021) will be tasked with carrying much of the goal-scoring load, especially with Alex Morgan leaving the club to join the San Diego Wave. One upside is that Darian Jenkins, acquired from Kansas City, has looked promising in this year’s edition of the Challenge Cup.
The spine of the team was also dramatically affected - Ali Krieger, Ashlyn Harris, Phoebe McClernon, Ali Riley, and Taylor Kornieck? All gone. This has obviously led to some teething problems (small sample size warning below!) and puts more and more stress on the remaining forwards to cover for this inexperience. Altogether, this is even more distressing when you realize that the 2021 Pride weren’t exactly prolific either.
So…what is it you say you do here?
Under new head coach Amanda Cromwell, the Pride have favored a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is a carry-over from the Skinner reign. There have been some trends in the style of play within this formation since Cromwell arrived. Specifically, her team is favoring deep-block defending, direct play from the goalkeeper, and relative ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ metrics-wise. This is to be expected! Regardless of individual squad quality, if the team is completely gutted and started fresh, and if a coach is in their first season with a professional club, things are going to look a bit helter skelter.
That being said, what could be improved to help bolster the paltry numbers both defensively and up front for the Pride? For one, since it seems like the Pride won’t look to heavily press the opposition in their third, they need to find more sustainable and effective ways to transition to goal. Their positive metrics (or lack thereof, in this case) point to a relatively “one-size-fits-all” approach, which isn’t necessarily ideal. Sitting deep and standing off opponents (which the Pride have been doing, evidenced by the second-lowest passes allowed per defensive action so far at 8.92) means if the team wins the ball back, they have considerable distances to cover to score. This is not to mean I’m advocating pumping the ball long, rather if a team is going to do one thing, they should do that one thing very well.
My advocating for a clearer plan also relates to how the Pride defend. As mentioned, they sit deep and soak up pressure. This is fine, but individual errors and a lack of pressure on the ball have been their undoing. Plenty of teams can afford to stay relatively passive and still defend their box well, but the Pride are seemingly not one of these. As per usual, though, this is caveated by the fact that their regular back four have not played together extensively. It’s something to keep an eye on nonetheless.
Not helping this lack of clear tactical identity is the rotating partnerships that have played in their double pivot in the midfield - four out of five of their Challenge Cup group stage matchups saw new duos, with none of them back to back for some semblance of consistency. Teams that play these kinds of double pivots in the center of the pitch require them to be both defensively proficient and to work together in attack to assist wide players and the forwards. Even more so, these teams need to be individually adept on the ball, considering the game moves through them. This has not been the case early on. Looking at goals added, the options in midfield have been less than impressive. Settle on one partnership, let them develop, and perhaps these numbers will stabilize.
Outlook?
As season number three of the Pride’s reset starts, what can we expect? Well, this preview hasn’t been exactly glowing, but the fact that the rest of the league is also in a state of flux plays into their favor. A successful season, considering the circumstances, would be to establish a clear identity on the pitch using the pieces they’ve acquired, and use it to build off of in 2023. With such a heavy roster rebuild it’s likely the most that fans should expect. That being said, there could be some bright spots & players going forward. The question is whether the framework put in place supports this happening.
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Houston Dash: Houston, we have a problem… defending
By Om Arvind
The Houston Dash came into the 2022 season with a clear cause-and-effect objective in mind: “tighten up defensively and we’ll make the playoffs.”
“We missed the playoffs by a point last year and we kept four clean sheets. North Carolina kept eleven. At a minimum, [that’s] a seven-point swing straight off the bat. We scored the most goals in [Dash] history but we ended up with a goal difference of zero.
I've said all along that, as long as we have a positive goal difference, we'll make the playoffs. We missed it by a point. I think we can continue to score more goals but we've got to get better collectively – not just the goalkeeper and back four. All ten outfield players, collectively, need to be better defensively.”
- James Clarkson talking to Abdullah Abdullah and me for Pressing Matters
So far in the 2022 Challenge Cup, this resolve to address defensive issues has not been correlated with tangible results on the field. Across the six group stage games, only Angel City have conceded as many goals, although Houston have been unlucky to let in ~five of them according to expected goals. Nevertheless, even when taking into account underlying numbers, it’s exceedingly clear that the Dash have work to do.
Clarkson binned the 4-3-3 from last season and opened this year’s Challenge Cup with a new-look 4-2-3-1 formation, deploying Shea Groom as the #10 ahead of new signings Marisa Viggiano and Kelcie Hedge against the Chicago Red Stars.
Out of possession, this looked like a very narrow 4-4-2 mid-block structure, with the wide players tucking inside to protect the halfspaces and guard the far-side option in midfield. Theoretically, this is a strong platform for congesting the center and/or dictating where the opposition can play the ball. Should a team try to force vertical passes, they risk getting picked off, allowing the Dash to run in transition. If they play wide, they play into the Dash’s hands, enabling Houston to cast a net over the wing and create a new kind of congestion.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t functioned like that in theory. The Dash have generally been good about preventing central penetration but have suffered on the flanks.
The primary issue has been with the execution – or lack thereof – of the sideline trap. There has been absent coordination and intensity from the front line when it comes to closing down the near-side center back, allowing adversaries to calmly circulate backwards and hit space on the far side. The Red Stars were particularly good about exploiting this, but these issues were also present against Racing Louisville FC and the Kansas City Current.
As a result, the Dash have also struggled to generate consistent threat offensively, since their counter-heavy style is dependent on generating turnovers.
Clarkson has considered addressing this issue with a more patient approach in possession, telling me:
“I think if we can be a little bit more composed in possession, that allows our attacking players to get into better positional areas, which can only help us as we go forward and then try to create more goal-scoring opportunities.
Certainly, last year, when we were able to put together one or two more extra passes, especially in the final third and not force it, we were able to create much bigger chances than if it had gone wide and we just put a cross into the box. So, that ability to have a better shape to be able to keep the ball and circulate a little bit more to be able to create much bigger chances, I think, will be hugely beneficial for us.”
He also sees possession as a way to stabilize things defensively – as this was a response to a question about whether getting Jane Campbell more involved in build-up had to do with ensuring better control and rest defense – noting that “the [offense and defense] are very much connected” in this respect.
However, it’s been difficult to see a marked improvement in this area. Houston can appear quite rushed on the ball, bombing passes over the top and into the channels very early in sequences, sometimes leading to offense the other way.
Granted, Houston don’t really have the midfield for a more patient style, with Hedge and Viggiano grading out as neutral-to-negative passers in ASA’s g+ metric, recording figures of -0.01 per 96 minutes last season. This is perhaps what prompted Clarkson to quickly abandon his Sophie Schmidt-at-center-back experiment, which saw her reinstated in the midfield in the second half of only their second Challenge Cup match.
Nonetheless, regardless of what changes are made in the center of the park, there is no replacing Kristie Mewis, who fit Houston’s all-action style perfectly, supplementing competent link-up with the type of movement that injected dynamism into Clarkson’s attack.
Clarkson has made other returns to the old formula, throwing out a rotated lineup in a 4-3-3 in the last two games of the Challenge Cup. Houston looked more comfortable in their original dynamics, being able to block off the center in a 4-1-4-1 without ceding too much width. Additionally, Shea Groom thrived as a late-arriving threat from central midfield and striker Michaela Abam did a solid job ushering play to the flank vs. Racing Louisville FC (Daly operated in midfield in that one!)
It’s worth noting that the Dash still lost one of those encounters, giving up an early goal and displaying catastrophic defending on a set-piece, representing the scale of the task at hand when it comes to boarding up the leaks.
Visualization courtesy of Arielle Dror.
How do you [defenders] solve a problem like Maria?
If there is a reason for optimism after this dismal Challenge Cup, it is one Maria Sánchez. Brought back on loan from Tigres in Liga MX, Sánchez has shown flashes of sheer brilliance:
Her 1v1 package is nasty and oriented around the almighty nutmeg, which sets up vicious deliveries from all sorts of distances and angles. Clarkson has been particularly excited by his new star, seeing her as a way to balance the offense and act as an indirect replacement for Mewis:
“I think it’s going to be really important, especially this year, now that we've got Maria Sánchez. That gives us the balance on the left-hand side and also the flexibility to be able to switch her and Nichelle Prince and play with inverted wingers as well as traditional wingers.
I do think Maria has terrific movement off the ball; she picks up some great spots and has a great quality of pass. Even her dead-ball deliveries are high quality. I believe [she] compensate[s] for the loss of Mewis rather than being a straight replacement.”
Clarkson is also tantalized by the prospect of Sánchez feeding Daly, who carried Houston’s goal-scoring burden last season by repeatedly getting into excellent shot locations, as demonstrated by that massive “g+ receiving” figure.
Clarkson noted, “I think we're going to increase the service to Rachel [Daly] and clearly, the more service we get to Rachel, the more goals she'll score.” And scoring goals is ultimately what the Houston Dash are all about. It’s still early days, but it seems unlikely that Clarkson will transform them into a defensive force; thus, their hopes for playoff qualification will probably once again lie with their attack.
There is no doubt that Maria Sánchez is a class addition to a front line already made up of Rachel Daly and Nichelle Prince, but it remains to be seen whether that will be enough to bring Houston over the line.
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Angel City FC: Angels in the meta-verse
By Sean Steffen
Angelinos love their soccer. When Brandi Chastain scored her now-legendary penalty, capping off the 1999 Women’s World Cup run that so captured the nation, she did so in Los Angeles (well, Pasadena) in front of 90,000 people. Unfortunately, outside of the national team, Angelinos haven't had a women's team to love, save for the LA Sol in the short-lived WPS. Now, 12 years later, professional women's soccer is back in LA in the form of Angel City. To say it was a long time coming is an understatement.
Consequently, Angel City have inherited a history and legacy that they must live up to. However, it's been a mixed bag as to whether or not that’s happening. Supporter groups have already been critical of numerous front office decisions including the club’s shady crypto partnerships, use of upside down triangle imagery, and the clumsy handling of serious allegations surfacing about one of their then investors, David Dobrick. This sucks and paints the picture of a front office more interested in their brand rather than taking the time to understand their fans and interact with them in ways that don't make them feel deeply uncomfortable for liking their local team.
At the same time, they have made a lot of choices that put them at the forefront of women's soccer. One of their first hires was a Director of Analytics, Kim McCauley, making Angel City one of the few teams in this league to openly commit to using data (clearly, we love that at ASA). They also have a player-first mentality not always seen by many clubs, making the public commitment to neither release nor trade players in season.
A Rocky Start
At the same time, positive on-field performance is an important aspect of a successful soccer team. Over the first games of the 2022 Challenge Cup, Angel City has yet to see much of this.
While it’s still very early, the numbers on Angel City through the first six games have not been great. Angel City are currently sitting on a -4.5 expected goal differential and a -4.7 g+ differential, which are both among the lowest in the league. Obviously, six games isn’t enough for such stats to be much use at predicting future performances, but they do a pretty good job of telling the story of what’s happened so far.
Angel City are passing more per possession than any team in the league except for North Carolina. However, they haven’t been doing much with it. They are currently third-worst in the league in passing g+, suggesting they aren’t getting much additive value from said passes, and when you consider the fact that 38% of their passes to date have been made from the defensive third, it’s no wonder why.
This inability to move the ball has bled into their ability to create chances, as well. In fact, 46% of their shots have been from outside the box, with an average xG per shot of 0.07, which is the lowest in the league by a landslide. To put the same issue another way, Angel City has taken 76 shots on the year and just one of them has been from within the six-yard box.
Okay, so they aren’t very good right now. But, can they be? If their final game in the 2022 Challenge Cup is any indication, progress is already being made.
So let’s explore that roster a bit, shall we?
Front Line
Angel City’s front line is by far their strongest, thanks to the talents of Christen Press and Simone Charley. Press is back in the NWSL for the first time since 2019, and any fans who have seen her play in the league or with the national team will know exactly what they are getting. Press’s game is impressive on paper, and she’s managed to shine across metrics, regardless of her team and position. This clearly highlights her versatility as a player and her soccer IQ.
Here are Press’s g+ wheels, just in case she wants to buy the NFTs off of us.
In Simone Charley, Angel City are getting a player that was setting NWSL ablaze last year, putting up the highest g+ per 96 of any player in the league who played over 500 minutes. Unfortunately for Charley, her season was cut short by injuries, or she likely would have been a Golden Boot contender. Angel City will look to build a strong partnership between their two big front-line stars.
Midfield
Angel City has had a real hard time advancing the ball and creating chances, which is usually a sign that the midfield needs a good, hard look. At present, Angel City have been primarily playing Savannah McCaskill, Dani Weatherholt, and Cari Roccaro.
McCaskill is coming off her best g+ season to date, ranking near the top of the league in her position (though it’s worth noting that the wheel is somewhat warped by the fact that McCaskill has played multiple positions). Weatherholt and Roccaro, however, are coming off two very poor seasons by the numbers, ranking near the bottom of the position.
If history is any judge, McCaskill will be the key to improving Angel City’s passing game. One aspect of her game that we haven’t seen and may need to evolve is the shot creation game. In 2021, McCaskill ranked 21st in the league in non-set-piece expected assists per 90, among players that played more than 1000 minutes.
She did this, however, on a team with a worse forward line than what she currently has in front of her. She also found herself playing multiple positions with her former team, so there are few reasons to suspect that these numbers are the ceiling for McCaskill. Angel City will likely lean on her passing prowess to get things going in the midfield and hope a more advanced position results in better chance-creation numbers. It’s not a bad bet and will be an interesting stat storyline to watch throughout the year.
Defense
Angel City has had some poor luck when it comes to injuries and no line has been more impacted than their defense. The anchor of this backline is likely Sarah Gorden who was nominated for Defensive Player of the Year in 2021 and helped carry Chicago to the championship game. Unfortunately, she’s been sidelined with an ACL injury and it’s not clear when she’ll be making a return.
One player who is making big strides is Canadian international Vanessa Gilles. If her past is any indication, Gilles will likely dominate aerials this year, but has also shown early signs of being a passing artist as well. She is currently tied for the lead among center backs in passing g+, and has positive receiving value as well, thanks to her status as a major target on set-pieces.
Hopefully, we’ll get to see this pair in action together soon because it could very well end up being the final piece for Angel City, who have given up the second-most expected goals in the Challenge Cup.
In the meantime, the backline is a major question mark going forward.
Conclusions
Angel City FC has been a disappointment thus far. We are, however, still very early in the existence of this team, which means there is plenty of time for that front office to learn from the mistakes and build on the successes. Similarly, these players have a lot of time to turn this thing around and build strong partnerships on the field, as they are far from a team without talent. Furthermore, if season ticket numbers are any indication, these players will have the support of one of the biggest fan bases in the league and the home advantage that comes with it. These fans have been waiting a long time for this moment and I expect them to come out screaming their hearts out for these players.
Long story short, the ceiling for this club is high, but so is the pressure. Can they live up to it?