2022 MLS Season Previews: DC United

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Rounding out the list of our 2022 MLS team previews is DC United! You can find all of the 2022 season previews here!

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DC United: The Devil Wears Losada

By Paul Harvey

2021 was the best of times and the worst of times for DC United fans. 2020 was dismal as DC United underperformed in every area and coach Ben Olsen was fired. New coach Hernan Losada came in with a vision that seemed to fit the players he had available like a glove. The team opened with a surprise win over eventual champions NYCFC, and despite a few bumps it looked like they were headed towards the playoffs. The team sat in 4th place in the East as of September 29th, but only earned four points over the next six games and ended up with nothing to play for on Decision Day. After such a bright start, the end was a huge disappointment.

The common theme in any review of DC’s season is that Losada ran his players too hard to achieve success, and that at season’s end, the team did not have the fitness levels to make that final push. There’s an element of truth to that; injury issues did pile up towards the end of the season and many key contributors were missing through the stretch run.

It makes sense to blame the injuries on the intensity, but does that fully track with the data available? Here’s a look at DC’s intense running throughout the season in comparison to the rest of the league.

DC was, in fact, the most intense team in the league, leading the league in distance covered in high intensity runs and total number of intense runs per game. In the June-September period where they had the greatest success, though, the intensity was dialed down. It was dialed down not just in comparison to DC thus far (every MLS team is less intense in the summer), but also to the league as a whole. It wasn’t a huge drop - DC went from first on average to second in both metrics - but it does show that DC United has a way forward and can sustain success without being so far ahead of the league in intensity.

Gressel and Arriola

DC’s most surprising move of the offseason was sending Paul Arriola to FC Dallas for 2 Million in GAM. The move made sense for Dallas, who had made a major profit in the sale of Ricardo Pepi and needed wing support. It did not make as much sense on the surface for DC. They lost a major contributor in his prime, as well as a player who often features for the USMNT.

Yet, despite Arriola’s overall positive contribution, there may have been something not working for United. Look at the appearances chart - when Gressel and Arriola played together, it was not as effective as playing just one of them. Also, neither managed to impress down the home stretch. Losada likes to play with wing backs, and Arriola and Gressel were two big names fighting for the same spot. Moving Arriola provides roster flexibility, as well as cementing the right wing for Gressel. It also opens up the right wing for Edison Flores or Adrien Perez, who bring a different look from Arriola.

Young Faces

One of the most exciting aspects of Losada’s time has been his commitment to youth. The most notable of last year’s young players was Kevin Paredes, who went from fringe player to locked in starter, and earned a $7 million move to VLF Wolfsburg. Moses Nyeman also saw his minutes grow under Losada. Nyeman and Griffin Yow should both see more time in 2022, but the real exciting new homegrown is Ted Ku-Dipietro.

Ku-Dipietro dominated in USL Championship last season, and leaves with an impressive record. At 20 he is no longer as young as some of the other breakthrough players MLS fans have seen. He has more than 3000 minutes of lower league play under his belt, and it’s time for the next step. He has game changing ability with the ball at his feet.

Goals, Goals, Goals

The biggest question facing DC United heading into the 2022 season is where they will find their goals. Arriola and Reyna, with 10 goals between them, are already gone. Kamara, the leading scorer, has supposedly been shopped around. Asad, Abila, and Paredes are gone as well - that’s another eight. Of the 54 goals scored by DC, 38 were scored by Kamara and departing players. How do you replace that production?

Nigel Robertha, the young Dutch forward, looked good in limited minutes last season. He was second on the team for npxG per 90 at 0.40, just behind Kamara’s 0.43. He offers a different dimension in terms of his on-ball ability. This will be the season to make one of the forward spots his own. Even though his g+ was below the average for forwards, this was primarily driven by a few poor performances. Overall, he contributed more positive than negative performances for DC, and is set for breakout in 2022.

Michael Estrada is also joining DC United on loan for Toluca. Though the most recent season has not seen him scoring as much as previous seasons, the 6’2” forward should be a capable target for Gressel and the rest of the DC team. Toluca as a whole has gone through a scoring slump, and their midfielders have provided most of their goals, suggesting a systemic issue that may not follow Estrada to the team. Estrada’s entire season will be judged on his ability to get in good positions and be found by his teammates.

Season Prospects

This is an analytics site, and it should be noted that DC United has been committed in that space - much more than a number of teams. Lucy Rushton has proved her ability in the front office multiple times over. Even though most of the establishment media is saying that DC will struggle (only one MLS Soccer pundit picked them to finish higher than 10th), DC has made smart and careful moves. They surprised in 2021, beating expectations to sit comfortably in the playoff spaces before their late collapse. Losada’s job will be to avoid the severe slumps in form that ended up being costly, but there is nothing about this team that indicates they should not be given the benefit of the doubt. DC might even be in line for a 2022 improvement.