2021 MLS Season Previews: DC United, Nashville SC, and San Jose Earthquakes
/We’re publishing three team previews every weekday until MLS First Kick on April 16th. You can find all of them here.
Today we’re looking at three teams brimming with hope as they enter the 2021 campaign.
_________________________________________________
DC: Livin’ La Vida Losada
By Carl Carpenter
What’s The Deal?
It’s all changed in DC. United have made huge moves in the structure of their club from top to bottom: at the front office level, in comes Lucy Rushton as GM: pointing to *hopefully* a push to become more analytically minded. And at the most visible level, this is the first season of the past 11 that doesn’t begin with Ben Olsen as Head Coach. Olsen will remain a club legend in D.C. forever, but for the first time in a long time, fans enter an MLS season with a sense of optimism. “Benny Ball,” while capable of producing the odd one-off result, was never a sustainable (or entertaining in the slightest) form of soccer. Under Olsen finishing among the top teams of the Eastern Conference was a rarity, while middle or lower finishes (and three Wooden Spoons) were more common. 2020 was a whole new low, however, so Olsen stepped down to take a more backseat role in D.C. Now, Hernan Losada comes in from Beerschot in Belgium, promising an entertaining, cavalier style of play. As the Black and Red are known for not being prolific spenders, the Argentine manager has very much the same roster to see if he can turn them into prolific scorers. That being said, there are a number of tremendous pieces in the team who he has to choose from to fit into his system. The bar is quite low based off of 2020, but if D.C. United can at the very least get their team to play as well as the sum of their parts, and finish mid-table, the club and their supporters have something to be positive about.
In Attack
A hallmark of Losada’s Beerschot team was verticality, pace in transition, and generally getting bodies forward quickly - the best pieces in D.C. United’s roster are players which fit that style of play perfectly (who’d have thought?). Olsen’s iteration of play, distinctly, did not: A very regimented and basic 4-2-3-1, barely got any shots off (on goal or otherwise), did not press opponents without the ball, etc. They had a roster built for Formula 1 but barely took the car out around the block. This shows up in the g+ numbers clear as day: Not one of D.C. 's acquisitions last season comes across well, Edison Flores especially looking poor. If Losada is able to successfully get the team to be more on the front foot, the players who were most affected by this: Julian Gressel, Yamil Asad, and the aforementioned Flores should get closer to levels they showed pre-D.C.
Losada, in his brief career to date has favored a 3-5-2 with the ball: extreme width from the wing backs, building up through the CBs and the two center forwards pinning back players on the last line of attack. Obviously, this is quite the departure from what the players at the back are used to, so expect some sort of pragmatism to start and a back four (albeit more expansive) to help aid in the adjustment period. As well, there are lots of creative things you can do with the ball asymmetrically to form a different structure in certain phases. One example of a major change to look out for is how the pivot player performs in a Losasa team: this #6 being one of the major enablers of possession, receiving on the half turn between lines, and creating numerical advantages at the back. In g+’s passing subcategory, none of those who played in Olsen’s double pivot come across well: Felipe (-0.08), Moreno (-0.13) and Canouse (-0.24) don’t exactly scream creativity.
Without the ball, D.C. essentially played: “Bill Hamid and Hope” - by almost every measurable collective defensive measure. They were the least aggressive and played one of the deepest blocks in MLS (the opposition’s half is lava, etc.) Beerschot tried to be more assertive in their pressure in comparison: Both center forward’s man-marking the opposition’s CBs, and wing backs joining them in the press up the pitch. Against stronger opponents in the Belgian Pro League, however, they did drop into a back five and aim to frustrate teams.
While they do have a few strengths at the back including the aforementioned Hamid and center back Steve Birnbaum, both of these players (including Paul Arriola who could be deployed as a wing back) will miss the start of the season. Depth in defense was a concern prior to these injuries, so this is a major red flag. One way Losada could try and paper up these cracks is by avoiding the issue entirely, leaning into the high press and aiming to regain the ball higher up the pitch and keep the ball as far away from the goal as possible. The case will likely be very much the same in certain games for D.C. without the ball as it was Beerschot: Toronto, Columbus, etc. all could require them to display more careful pragmatism.
So, as D.C. United look to leave Ben Olsen’s plodding style of play in the past, and make the most out of the signings from last summer - what’s the outlook? While this is quite easy to say, Losada *should* have a free hit this season, especially in the early months. Whether or not Losada looks to employ a new formation, fans should be patient. There may be some growing pains given the changes required to become the protagonists with the ball, getting last season’s big money acquisition to at least find a decent baseline to judge them from, AND a lack of depth in other areas. The roster even at its very best is not at a level to see United go to the top of the Eastern Conference, but a mid table finish would be very good signs that post-Olsen the club are moving in the right direction. And judging by fans’ general opinions at the moment, just something that is more fun to watch is what they desire, first and foremost.
DC supporters will hope these flurry of front office changes signifies a real desire to return DC to the status of a club at the forefront of MLS, both in terms of organizational structure and data analysis (hence the hiring of Rushton) as well as competitiveness on the pitch.
_________________________________________________
Nashville: Leal is fair in Lovitz and W.A.R.
By Ben Wright
I finished my 2020 Nashville SC preview with the following:
“This team will struggle to consistently score goals and will grind out a lot of 0-0 or 1-1 draws. If Ríos, Mukhtar, and Leal can adapt to the league, or a high-level striker is brought in, this side could challenge for one of the final playoff spots in the west. Staying in the playoff hunt until late in the season looks like a pretty reasonable goal at this point.”
Other than moving to the East due to Covid, I’d say that was pretty spot on. Add in Walker Zimmerman arriving with the passion of a Broadway bachelorette party and the explosiveness of a Keith Urban guitar solo, and you have a historically successful expansion season. They played great defense, struggled to score for two thirds of the season, and proved to be a bear to play against in a knockout match.
2020 in Review
It wasn’t at all the expansion season Nashville expected. After nearly 60,000 fans watched their MLS debut against Atlanta in February, Nashville was struck with devastating tornadoes, damaging several players’ homes, and then Covid put the league on hold. Just as it looked like they’d get back to playing matches, over 10 of their travelling delegation tested positive for Covid and they were removed from the MLS is Back tournament.
When Nashville finally got back on the field in August, they were what everyone thought they’d be; a very good defensive side that struggled to score goals. That improved down the stretch, though. Daniel Ríos, Hany Mukhtar and Randall Leal found their form, and the arrival of DP striker Jhonder Cádiz saw Nashville finish the final eight matches of the season as the third-highest scoring team in the league. They didn’t just qualify for the playoffs, either. They knocked off Inter Miami and Toronto FC before falling to eventual champions Columbus Crew in extra time.
From a numbers standpoint, Nashville didn’t deviate too much from expectations. They finished two points higher than their 29.77 xPts, slightly underperformed their xG and overperformed on their xGF. It’s hard to argue that their 2020 performance came down to luck. In fact, I’d argue that it’s a very repeatable result.
Offseason Roster Changes
Nashville returned most of their core while upgrading several key areas. Their entire starting defense is returning, including star weatherman-moonlighting-as a-right-back Alistar Johnston, who made his international debut for Canada this offseason after bursting onto the scene in his rookie season.
Similar to what they did in the USL Championship, Nashville has bolstered their attack after year one. They brought in veteran striker CJ Sapong and winger Rodrigo Piñeiro from Uruguayan squad Danubio. Their staff would also tell you that Cádiz and Handwalla Bwana, both signed towards the tail end of 2020, were brought in largely for 2021 and should be more impactful contributors this season.
All of their SuperDraft picks, including Irakoze Donasiyano (taken 20th overall from Virginia) will remain with their college sides until the spring season is over. Nashville will have decisions to make on those five players and if they’ll be part of their first team.
One big question: Will Nashville evolve past a low block?
Ok, ok… It’s probably slightly unfair to say that Nashville only played in a low block last season. While they used it a lot, they mixed in a mid-block with a bit of a press at times. But yeah… they were best in a low block and attacking in transition.
No surprise for a Gary Smith team, but Nashville stayed compact defensively, forced teams to bypass midfield with their passing, and then looked to win the ball in midfield and go quickly to goal.
That’s apparently been an area of focus for Smith in preseason; getting his team out of a low block, pushing up into more of a mid block and utilizing players like Dave Romney and Walker Zimmerman to build out of the back. While their midfield duo of Dax McCarty and Aníbal Godoy is more than capable of passing the ball, those two are 33 and 30, respectively, and Godoy will miss significant time to international duty. Without a replacement for their passing range on the roster, advancing their lines 15-20 yards higher up and relying on their center-backs to play line breaking passes may be the next step in their evolution. If they want to score goals more consistently (spoiler alert: duh), having the entire team closer to goal seems like a good first step.
2021 Prognosis
While some might say 2020 was a fluke and Nashville took advantage of an off year to make it to the playoffs, it’s hard to explain away their elite defense. With an unchanged starting backline and some interesting young additions, that should only improve as they build more familiarity, and it will keep them competitive if the attack starts slowly. With the signings they’ve made and Gary Smith’s history, though, it’s not a stretch to expect their attack to improve significantly.
The East as a whole will improve, no doubt. But Nashville should be very much in the playoff mix once again. With one of the league’s best defenses as the foundation, even marginal improvement in the final third could see them in the mix for a seeded playoff berth.
_________________________________________________
San Jose: Bielsa-ball on a Budget
By Jamon Moore
A historically poor defense in 2020
Outliers. That’s what you have to call the San Jose Earthquakes. They are not a dependable team or a predictable team...heck, they are barely an analyzable team under conventional mechanisms, and few outside the California Bay Area would consider them a good team. But they are an entertaining team if you are a “root for chaos” type of person or enjoy weekly heart attacks.
Look at that visualization and feel for the cardiac health of Earthquakes fans. And also consider San Jose’s goal differential and table finish from the past four seasons.
| GD | Conference Postion | Head Coach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 of 11 (final playoff spot) | Dom Kinnear / Chris Leitch | ||
| 12 of 12 (Wooden Spoon) | Mikael Stahre / Steve Ralston | ||
| 8 of 12 (missed playoffs) | Matías Almeyda | ||
| 8 of 12 (final playoff spot) | Matías Almeyda |
That’s a total goal differential of -62 over four seasons -- and the last season was 11 games shorter than the others. They were on a season-long pace for a -23 goal differential which would have exceeded their 2018 Wooden Spoon season. Making the playoffs with -21 and -16 goal differentials is not normal, folks.
There’s a very strong correlation between points-per-game and goal differential in every league, including a two-conference league with an unbalanced schedule. The Earthquakes have spat upon the correlations three of the last four seasons, opting instead to be the league’s biggest outliers.
Sure, Quakes fans will argue there were some really bad games in 2020 dragging numbers down, but if you take out the worst four games and best four games from each season, the correlation gets stronger (by removing outliers) but there is no material change to table position or the graph to the right for the Earthquakes. In other words, they are who they are.
This is a team that has been poor defensively for a long, long time. Man-marking all over the pitch may be entertaining, but it has not materially improved the results or place in the standings. San Jose under Chris Leitch in the second half of 2017 had a similar boom-or-bust-but-for-Pete’s-sake-don’t-draw entertainment philosophy. One of the reasons the defensive improvement hasn’t happened is the types of goals the Quakes have given up has just shifted to different buckets:
Using our Where Goals Come From goal category framework, we can see San Jose still gave up the most Basic Pass goals (10) and the most combined set piece goals (Set Piece Pass + Set Piece Kick = 13) in the league last season. The average Basic Pass goals against last season in MLS were 4.12 and the average set piece goals were 3.08). That puts the Quakes 16 goals over the mean on categories teams shouldn’t be giving up a lot of goals on. Basic Pass goals most often come from distance as well as simple waltzes through the heart of the defense that don’t require a special pass type like a through ball, cross, or cutback. You’ve seen the infamous video against Seattle by now.
It’s fully Almeyda’s squad now
It’s now the third year under 2018’s Concacaf Coach of the Year Matías Almeyda. He has made this team into His own image this offseason. After makeshift #10 Magnus Eriksson left town in a hurry following the MLS is Back Tournament for Sweden, the Quakes had a huge gaping hole in the center of the pitch both offensively and defensively. They have now plugged that with former Almeyda protégé at Chivas Guadalajara, Eduardo “La Chofis” Lopez, who is effectively another makeshift, left-footed, inverted winger turned attacking midfielder. Other previously Almeyda-coached signings this offseason include central midfielder Eric Remedi from Atlanta United, and outside back Argentine journeyman Luciano Abecasis. Gone are Nick Lima, Danny Hoesen, Vako, and Luis Felipe Fernandes. This means that the team will need to greatly improve defensively without a significant defensive signing.
Whether Almeyda can win a cup in MLS, or at least a playoff game, will be dependent on him taking goals out of the Basic Pass and Set Piece Pass “goals against” buckets and adding goals to, well, any bucket. With Austin FC added to the Western Conference, it’s unlikely the team will have yet another outlier season and make the playoffs with a poor defense.
It’s not clear from the offseason how the defensive issues are going to be solved, although General Manager Jesse Fioranelli has said he is pursuing an aerial presence to help on the set piece defense. Either way, the ability of this team to rise or fall on the coaching of Almeyda will be fully determined this season.
Can the attack overcome the defensive deficit?
Like most MLS teams this offseason, the Quakes decided not to invest yet on Designated Players, saving their money for the summer window. As it stands, it’s estimated the team has spent over $1 million less on salaries than at the start of 2020, and green card announcements are still pending which are necessary to get under the international player cap.
They are not without attacking talent. At 38 years old, the ageless wonder that is Chris Wondolowski is a good bet to get back to 10+ goals in a 34-game season, although it is expected to be his final one. Cristian Espinoza on the right wing of what Almeyda calls a 4-2-1-3 is a top-three open play chance creator the last two seasons. The young Cade Cowell has absolutely explosive speed and has been working on his finishing, scoring a hat trick in the Quakes preseason opener against USL Championship side Sacramento Republic. He’s likely to play more at left wing but he’ll see time at the striker spot as well.
Now the Quakes have Chofis Lopez at the 10, and Andy Rios will probably come off the bench. Carlos Fierro (who is the likely game one starter on the left wing) and the living legend Shea Salinas will compete for minutes with Cowell. US international Jackson Yueill has more than come into his own and seems like a talent with an almost-certain European future. The N'Golo Kanté-like Brazilian Judson is arguably becoming the best defensive midfielder in the league, leading the league in tackles in 2020. JT Marcinkowski in goal represented a tangible upgrade the second half of last season and is partially responsible for the turnaround that pushed the team into the final playoff spot in the West. Having gotten the #1 shirt this preseason, Marcinkowski should continue to get the nod over veteran Daniel Vega.
The biggest question marks are the centerbacks, Florian Jungwirth and Oswaldo Alanis (on loan). The team should expect the exciting left back, Marcos Lopez to take a step forward on both sides of the ball, so long as he doesn’t get caught forward too much. Tommy Thompson who previously competed with Lima should now compete with Abecasis for the right back job. That will be one spot to watch closely.
If the Quakes can clean up the defensive errors and continue putting in goals, they are a good bet to move up the Western Conference. If not, expect Matías Almeyda to finally take one of those national team offers next offseason.