MLS Is Back: Week One Highs And Lows
/My excellent colleagues at ASA have done some terrific work in rolling out Goals Added (g+) the past couple months, putting out methodology articles, and finding new and creative ways to assess player performance on the pitch through this metric. We highly recommend you read the articles linked above, but g+ is the model we built to assign value to every single on-ball action that happens in a soccer game. The return of MLS has given us at ASA the first extended period of which to use this g+ data since the league’s restart, so through the medium of video analysis I will be looking at some of the major actions of g+ during the first week of action. I’ll be giving context to the numbers behind it: where the players did well, where they did poorly, and why g+ afforded them the values they were given!
MOST VALUABLE DRIBBLES
Cristian Penilla v. Montreal - (g+ value: 0.24)
The first clip is from the Montreal-Revolution match and the player in question is Cristian Penilla. After the Revolution have regained possession following a clearance, the ball immediately finds the feet of the Colombian, who is instantly taking a touch forward towards goal. While he has the numbers to support him, his teammates’ runs do little in the way of creating space for him, running in behind, etc. Facing up against Rudy Camacho, Penilla feins to shoot - opening up his hips as if to curl it towards the far corner. Instead, he quickly cuts the ball across his opponent and strikes against the Revolution’s goal. It’s a stunning solo effort and well worthy of it’s high value: turning defense into attack in seconds, gaining yards up the pitch, and earns a decent enough chance (an xG of 0.30).
Kevin Molino v. Sporting KC - (g+ value 0.145)
Minnesota’s Kevin Molino leads a one-man counterattack in this example (similar to that of Penilla from the previous clip). The Loons’ midfielder shrugs off initial pressure to keep possession and gain extra yardage into the final third. Driving centrally, Molino forces the Sporting KC defense to narrow up: once Matt Besler steps to confront him, Molino chooses an excellent reverse ball to Aaron Schoenfeld, who cuts inside and hits the frame of the goal.
LEAST VALUABLE DRIBBLES
Carles Gil v. Montreal - (g+ value: -0.29)
Carles Gil does everything in the lead up to the chance correctly, but delays too much and fails to find his teammates (who are better placed). As the Revolution counter, Adam Buksa picks out Gil in space. The attacking midfielder goes into the box but crucially only has eyes on beating the Montreal players 1v1 and fails to see four Revolution teammates joining him in the box. After beating one player, he tries it again, taking one too many touches which leads to a promising attack killed. Transitional moments like this are all about decision making and quickness of thought, and Gil (who is no doubt one of the most creative players in the league: ranking 5th last season in g+ passing values per 96 with 0.07) contributed to the attack’s failure.
Gary Mackay-Steven v. Philadelphia - (g+ value: -0.25)
On first glance, this clip looks like a great tackle (which it is) rather than a chance killing dribble. Watching it back numerous times I still maintain that the numbers are a bit harsh here. However, the New York player’s inability to get a shot off in this scenario is a contributing factor to the low value that g+ has attributed to it. This score is not an indictment on Gary Mackay-Steven but rather “what could have been” from such a good/pass and initial set-up to get into Philadelphia’s penalty area.
MOST VALUABLE SHOTS
Douglas Martinez v. Colorado - (g+ value: 0.242)
Following a partially cleared freekick, and a slight flick from Kyle Beckerman, Douglas Martinez gets a chance on goal (xG of 0.48) right in front. He catches it poorly however, due to a combination of the ball initially getting controlled by his knees, and was probably surprised that it fell to him. Lalas Abubakar threw himself at the ball, and Clint Irwin was able to make the save. It’s hard not to see why this has such a high g+ value in our database!
Florian Valot v. Atlanta - (g+ value: 0.21)
The early goal in the Red Bulls’ victory over Atlanta United is the second highest shooting value from the opening round of matches. While the defensive shape of Atlanta was poor, Florian Valot positions himself intelligently in the space provided to him and gets as clean a look on goal as you’ll ever see in Major League Soccer. The shot was given an xG value of 0.36 due to the player scoring from the edge of the box, but that slightly downplays the quality of chance this shot afforded the Red Bulls.
LEAST VALUABLE SHOTS
Steve Birnbaum/Frederic Brillant v. Toronto - (+g Value: -0.062)
A unique one here: a shooting value where both players don’t make contact with the ball. Both of DC’s center backs find separation from their markers on the corner, but seemingly collide (perhaps a slight push from a Toronto player?) and the ball flies through traffic. The chance has an xG of 0.33 (the fact that it was a header slightly offset their proximity to the goal) and it’s very likely that if one of the players make contact it’s a goal. Luckily for DC, this chance wouldn’t come back to haunt them as they scored two late goals shortly thereafter.
Juan Agudelo v. Orlando - (g+ value: -0.057)
This one is very cool to see in context because the action Juan Agudelo takes prior is a very high positive Receiving value (g+ of 0.232), but the decision to take the shot (an xG value of 0.10) takes some of that positive work in fabricating the chance away. The positioning of Agudelo’s teammates was not spectacular, but if he had chosen to turn outside and slip in one of the players overlapping, or find the advancing Mikey Ambrose, the momentum and strength of the attack could have possibly continued.
MOST VALUABLE PASSES
Graham Zusi v. Minnesota - (g+ value: 0.314)
Graham Zusi’s ball is a fantastic first-time whipped ball in the exact location every attacking player wants it: between the goalkeeper and defense, right on top of the six-yard box. While the ball might have taken a hop prior to arriving at the feet of Gadi Kinda, he likely should have done better with the chance (it had an xG of 0.39) by timing his connection and getting over top of it to keep it under the bar.
Victor Ulloa v. Orlando - (g+ value: 0.245)
The opening assist of the MLS Is Back Tournament is also the second highest rated pass in our database! Following some great combination play on the right side of the pitch, Inter Miami progresses into the box and Victor Ulloa finds himself parallel with the six-yard box. His excellent slide-rule pass to the back post for the oncoming Agudelo takes four opposition players and puts his side 1-0. The pass afforded to Agudelo from Ulloa earned him a shot worth 0.51 xG, which is a chance any striker would love to be given on a regular basis.
LEAST VALUABLE PASSES
Miles Robinson v. NY Red Bulls - (g+ value: -0.30)
Initially, the Atlanta United defender does well to win the ball in his own corner, dispossessing Omir Fernandez. However, his clearance is weak and falls directly to Alex Muyl, who puts in a terrific ball (very similar to Zusi’s pass covered previously) which Valot skews over the bar. This g+ value attributed to him is is pretty much a textbook definition of a negative according to the metric’s methodology; gifting the opposition a very high value chance from a position of relative comfort.
Jeremy Kelly v. Real Salt Lake - (g+ value: -0.27)
This one is the very definition of a disaster at the back. After goalkeeper Clint Irwin gains possession after a hopeful pass forward from RSL, he throws it to Jeremy Kelly under minimal pressure. Kelly turns back to recycle possession around the back, hoping to find Lalas Abubakar. Abubakar inexplicably leaves it, giving Monteiro the chance to pounce, which he does. Irwin fouls the Real Salt Lake forward, earning himself a booking and the opposition a penalty kick. Luckily for Colorado, Irwin would spare his teammate’s blushes, saving the subsequent penalty.
MOST VALUABLE RECEPTIONS
Victor Ulloa v. Orlando - (g+ value: 0.232)
Here we have our first crossover event! The reception from Ulloa which created the second highest g+ valued pass thus far in MLS Is Back. Very little needs to be said about this clip: Ulloa receives the pass beyond pressure inside Orlando’s penalty area, gaining himself the extra yard needed to find Agudelo at the back post. These two events blending together perfectly displays the beauty of the metric: How a player’s contribution changes their team’s chances of scoring across possessions.
Cristian Espinoza v. Seattle - (g+ value: 0.20)
A common theme of receptions found within the inner workings of the metric: the touch to set up a great chance on goal are the highest values found in week one of the tournament (as they well should be!). Espinoza’s touch leading to the pass comes from a great seam-run between the full back and center back of Seattle. Without looking up, he cuts the ball back across the six yard box where Andre Rios is approaching. If not for the presence of Kelvin Leerdam’s desperate lunge to block, San Jose would’ve gone 1-0 up.
LEAST VALUABLE RECEPTIONS
Gyasi Zardes v. Cincinnati - (g+ value: -0.053)
I like this one because while Gyassi Zardes’ play in this move gives his side a shot on goal, his ability to make more of the chance gives him negative points. Artur slips in the forward behind Cincinnati’s back four, but Zardes would’ve been better served to straighten his run out after the initial parallel movement to get on the defender’s blind-spot. If he had made this adjustment to his run, he would not have gone into the traffic within the penalty area, and gotten himself a shot on goal (as opposed to the low percentage chance Luis Dias was given).
Nick Lima v. Seattle - (g+ value: -0.031)
This is another great negative one (yes I realize that's an oxymoron) which isn't a direct catastrophe for the Earthquakes, but the reception leads to a poor shot selection from Nick Lima, ending his side’s attacking momentum. It is a perfect example of how g+ links all events together and rewards or punishes everything with cold objectivity.
MOST VALUABLE INTERUPTIONS
Alex Muyl v. Atlanta - (g+ value: 0.31)
Well what do you know, another linked event! Muyl’s possession regain leading to the pass for Valot has an almost identical g+ value, albeit it on the positive side. As ever with the Red Bulls, this interruption and chance is provided thanks to the side’s ethos of heavy pressure from the front. Three Red Bull players are within 10 yards of each giving them great defensive access, and Valot’s occupation of the penalty area prepares them for the next phase of this - going to goal.
Miles Robinson v. Red Bulls - (g+ value: 0.29)
Both our highest values for interruptions came from the same match and involved the same two players! Following pressure in the opposition’s final third (just like the previous event), the Red Bulls combine beautifully to create a chance for Muyl inside the penalty area. Daniel Royer switches play to the other side of the pitch for Kyle Duncan who lays through first time. Enter Miles Robinson, who makes a tremendous last-ditch tackle to partially block the shot and dissipate the chance. Robinson is one of the brightest prospects in American soccer, and while much of the focus is (rightly) on his ability in possession, he displays his nous within his own penalty area here.
LEAST VALUABLE INTERRUPTIONS
Rudy Camacho v. New England - (g+ value: -0.22)
Camacho’s defensive “effort” here at stopping Penilla 1v1 is our lowest rated interruption value from week one. Credit has to go to Penilla for his skill here (as I did at the beginning of this article) but Camacho’s inability to move his feet, getting sold for the fake shot, etc. are all quite poor. In situations like this, where a team is entering crisis aversion mode, the defender should have moved his feet and at the very least delayed Penilla. Once again, however, Penilla did excellently.
Jack Elliot v. NYCFC - (g+ value: -0.16)
Our final value from week one is a poor initial clearance from Philadelphia center back Jack Elliot, leading to Valentin Castellanos of NYCFC getting a shot on goal in the penalty area. On a second viewing, Elliot was perhaps lucky to have just timed his scrambled block attempt correctly, because Castellanos (and the rest of the New York bench) did have some cause to claim a penalty. While it’s not the most catastrophic error given the context, a poor clearance leading to any sort of shot on goal is worthy of negative points.
Conclusion
Needless to say, combing through the copious amounts of events from week one of the MLS Is Back Tournament was lots of fun. Seeing how these different actions on the pitch coalesce to form the final composite g+ rating assigned to each player is truly a wonderful thing. As the tournament continues on, it will be interesting to see how similar types of actions are valued by the metric and which players continue to stand out.