2020 Season Preview: Vancouver Whitecaps
/Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
By Eric Walcott (@ericwsoccer)
| Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.2 | 37 | |
| 56.6 | 55 | |
| 30.8 | 34 |
Probably the simplest way to summarize 2019 for the Vancouver Whitecaps is to say that they overachieved and still finished last in the Western Conference. Now, when I say they overachieved, clearly that doesn’t mean a ton, given how things ended up. But, it gives you a sense of how bad 2019 actually was for Vancouver. The Whitecaps outperformed expected goals, expected goals against, and expected points, but finished last in the West and ahead of only FC Cincinnati in the MLS standings.
Now, there wasn’t much to build on going into 2019 and Marc dos Santos brought in a ton of new players in his first year in charge, so as frustrating as 2019 likely was for the Whitecaps and their supporters, it probably wasn’t a shock.
One thing the Whitecaps did excel at in 2019 was limiting the quality of chances they allowed. Sitting back in a fairly low defensive block, the Whitecaps did a decent job of forcing opponents to take shots from low xG spots. They were actually one of the best teams in MLS in terms of expected goals per shot conceded. But, and you had to know there was a but coming there, they gave up over 100 shots more than anyone else. It doesn’t matter if you’re forcing teams to take low percentage shots if you give up that many shots because at some point you’re going to give up goals, and Vancouver did. A lot. If Vancouver can figure out a way to continue to limit shot quality but cut down on the number of shots they concede, that could be an area of significant improvement in 2020.
2019 in Review
One of the things that Vancouver struggled with during the 2019 season was cohesiveness. A ton of new players came in before the start of the season and the team never really seemed to gell. The arrivals this offseason certainly look like higher level players bringing in a lot more talent, but there are still a lot of them. Lass Bangoura and Joaquin Ardaiz are gone from the attack after not contributing much. Jon Eric is gone in the midfield, and Doneil Henry is the only real loss on the backline.
Lucas Cavallini is the record signing forward from Puebla who should be a huge boost at forward. Joining him in the attack are draft-pick Ryan Raposo, who looks like he could actually see real minutes this season either centrally as an attacking midfielder or on the wings, and Cristian Dajome and David Milinkovic who are pure wingers. Cavallini comes with huge expectations based on his performances for the Canadian national team and in Liga MX where he scored 28 goals in 81 games for Puebla. Dajome is coming off a Copa Sudamericana performance where he appeared in all 11 games for Independiente del Valle (10 starts), scoring 4 goals along with picking up 2 assists and helping his club win the tournament. If he can bring that form to Vancouver, that’s a big get. Milinkovic is on loan from Hull City where he’s made 12 appearances in all competitions in the last 2 seasons, and only one of those in the 2019/2020 season. My advice for Whitecaps fans on Milinkovic: if you expect nothing, he can’t hurt you. Raposo was the No. 4 pick in the SuperDraft and has looked good enough in the preseason to get some people excited.
There hasn’t been a ton added in the midfield, which is...concerning. Leonard Owusu was signed from FC Ashdod, but his arrival was held up by immigration issues and he missed all of the preseason.
Cristian Gutierrez comes in to add some depth behind Ali Adnan, and Ranko Veselinovic adds depth and maybe competition for a starting spot at center-back. He too has had his arrival held up by immigration issues though and is not yet in Vancouver, so it might be a while before he sees significant minutes.
2020 Outlook
This may shock some people, but if the Whitecaps want to be better at soccer in 2020, they need to create better chances, score more goals, and limit the number of shots opponents are taking.
Score More Goals
I know, I know, that’s about equivalent of saying if they want to win more games they need to score more goals than their opponent more often. Duh. But hear me out.
The scoring more goals part IS obvious, and in bringing in Lucas Cavallini the Whitecaps have made a serious investment in improving that position. Cavallini is a proven goalscorer and if the Whitecaps create enough chances for him, there’s no reason to think he won’t score 15+ goals (maybe more!) and be worth every penny of what they paid for him. My two questions related to scoring more goals are:
1) Who else is going to score goals for the Whitecaps in 2020?
2) Where does the chance creation come from?
Who else is going to score goals for the Whitecaps in 2020?
Behind Cavallini on the depth chart at forward are Fredy Montero, Theo Bair, and Tosaint Ricketts. That group has a fairly limited ceiling (I think) and a floor that is somewhere around the level of “contributes absolutely nothing.” Fredy Montero seems well past being a regular contributor. Could he pop in here and there and score a couple goals? Maybe. Do you want to have to count on that? No. Ricketts has shown flashes but has yet to put it together long enough to consistently get on the field. Bair was exciting in moments in 2019, but that’s about it.
On the wings it looks like Dajome and Milinkovic will be starting. For a bit it looked like Ryan Raposo might start in the middle, with Yordy Reyna out wide, but the ‘Caps have gone with Milinkovic - Reyna - Dajome in their last 2 “first team” friendlies, so I’d bet on that to start the season. Dajome had a great run in Copa Sudamericana, but his resume beyond that is pretty short. He might be a reliable goal-scoring winger, but we don’t really have any way to know. Milinkovic? I mean, who knows. There isn’t much evidence to suggest he should be counted on, but sometimes players find the right fit and hit levels they haven’t before. I wouldn’t bet on it, but Vancouver will certainly be more fun if he does.
The other key contributor in the goals column is likely Yordy Reyna, and I’m going to use that to transition into the next question as well:
Where does the chance creation come from?
Vancouver’s most effective chance creator in 2019, by expected assists per 90 minutes was Lucas Venuto. He was so good that they released him in August. His 0.2 xA per 96 minutes did lead the team though, which says A LOT about Vancouver’s chance creation.
| Shots | xG | KeyP | xA | xG+xA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 | |
| 2.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | |
| 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
But let’s get back to Yordy Reyna. In his first two seasons in MLS, Reyna looked like a really nice player, a creative attacker who could contribute goals and assists and a really good piece to have if you put talent around him. Then last season happened and it did not go well for Reyna.
Notice that in 2019 Reyna took more shots than in previous seasons, but had lower expected goals. His key passes and expected assists were down significantly. One of the keys to Vancouver’s season this year is likely going to be whether Reyna can rediscover his form, and if not, how Vancouver replaces that. Last year, they couldn’t and it killed them.
One other place we’ve seen chance creation coming from in preseason is Ali Adnan overlapping down the left. It doesn’t always translate into being the one playing the final ball, but even in 2019 Adnan was heavily involved in the Vancouver attack. That seems likely to continue in 2020. Whether Vancouver can get more production out of those forays forward will likely be significant in whether their attack is improved.
Give Up Fewer Shots (and Goals)
The other big question for Vancouver is going to be whether they can improve defensively. Last season the Whitecaps were fourth-worst in MLS in expected goals against, with 56.6 xGA. The 55 goals they conceded was only 8th worst in MLS, but there’s not a ton of consolation in that.
I don’t actually think their defenders are the biggest problem with Vancouver’s defending, which is why this column isn’t broken up by an overview of attackers, midfielders, and defenders. Maxime Crepeau had a decent season. It wasn’t great (he gave up roughly one goal more than expected by our model), but it was a big step forward. He had some big moments, and combined with his performances for the Canadian national team, seems ready to take another step in 2020. The backline was solid for the most part. Adnan’s adventures forward sometimes (okay, regularly) leave gaps but they did a fairly good job filling those. In Erik Godoy and Derek Cornelius they’re strong at center-back, and Ranko Veselinovic and Jasser Khmiri are good depth, though Veselinovic could push for a starting role once he settles. Jake Nerwinski is a decent MLS right-back, though depth behind him, or someone to compete with him might be a good idea in the near future.
I think that’s a decent-to-solid MLS backline. Certainly good enough to be mid-table in the West, which means competing for a playoff spot.
The problem last season is Vancouver sat so deep and was so incapable of possessing the ball and building an attack going forward that teams just had way too many possessions against them and were able to push numbers forward in attack without really worrying about the consequences. That meant that not only did Vancouver give up the most shots in MLS in 2019, but the 681 shots they conceded were also the most given up by an MLS team from 2011-2019 (years in the ASA dataset).
Given Owusu's late arrival, expect Tiebert to start early on until Owusu settles into the team.
So Vancouver struggled to possess the ball, they were 18th in MLS in passes per game (463.5) and their opponents average of 563.2 passes per game was the most in MLS. Not only did they allow a lot of passes, they were one of the easiest teams in MLS for opposing teams to pass through. That’s important, because it means opponents weren’t just passing the ball around the midfield patiently looking for an opening but not progressing. It means opponents completed passes against Vancouver at a higher rate than they would normally be expected to.
Opponents expected passing percentage against Vancouver in 2019 was 79.2%, which is 11th highest in MLS. High expected passing percentage isn’t necessarily good or bad, it says more about how much pressure is being applied on the ball. A handful of playoff teams, including MLS Cup winners Seattle, and runners-up Toronto, allowed higher expected passing percentage than Vancouver in 2019.
Opponents ACTUAL passing percentage against Vancouver was 82.7%, the highest in MLS. That might not seem like a huge difference, but it adds up to an extra 20 passes per game and means opponents are completing passes they normally wouldn’t be expected to. To me that says a lot about Vancouver’s ability to defend through the midfield.
A couple of things might help with that in 2020. First, In-Boem Hwang has a full season in MLS under his belt. In-Boem showed flashes in 2019 of why Vancouver was so excited to sign him, and why some Bundesliga clubs have been after him, but it wasn’t always there. With a full season to settle, he has the potential to be a star in that midfield. A more consistent performance from him will improve both Vancouver’s possession in attack and their ability to defend in the midfield.
Second, it does look like there may be a tactical shift in Vancouver this year. The Whitecaps have shifted from a straight 4-3-3 last year into a 4-2-3-1 with a double pivot in preseason, and they’ve been pressing higher defensively. The shift to the 4-2-3-1 is important because nobody in that midfield is a true number. Allowing two players to share the defensive responsibility in midfield should both solidify their defensive setup and give them a bit more in transition and going forward.
Throughout preseason, the Whitecaps were definitely trying to apply consistent pressure higher up the field, defending in more of a 4-4-2 with Reyna and Cavallini pressing up top. Dajome and Milinkovic would form a midfield four with Inboem and Tiebert. If Vancouver can apply that pressure without it creating too many gaps between lines, or leaving them vulnerable at the back, it could significantly improve their defense in 2020, as well as help trigger attacking chances off of turnovers. If nothing else, it should make them more fun to watch.
2020 Outlook
There are so many new pieces (again) and so many question marks still in this lineup that it’s hard to confidently say anything about Vancouver going into 2020. The lack of depth concerns me enough that I think the best case here is that Vancouver competes for a playoff spot in the 5-7 range. Even if all the pieces fit and meet or exceed expectations, there’s just no way everyone stays healthy all season long, and there’s a pretty big drop off in a lot of positions behind the starter. Worst case, the new pieces don’t fit or aren’t improvements on the players they were brought in to replace and Vancouver is as bad as they were last year, or close to it. I think their ability to press higher and spend less time bunkered in this year is going to be important to their success. I hope they stick with it, because even if it doesn’t work at least they’ll be more fun to watch.