2020 Season Preview: Los Angeles Galaxy
/Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
By Ian L. (@ahandleforian)
The Los Angeles Galaxy’s last campaign ended in devastating fashion. While LAFC earned all of the plaudits for having the best regular season in the history of the league, the Galaxy were left with nothing to trumpet but their suspiciously cobbled-together roster of high priced superstars, and never losing to LAFC. Well, their brightest star is gone and that great record against LAFC came to an abrupt halt at the worst possible time. The transition from the pride of the league to that of a Western Conference also-ran which isn’t even the most important team in their own area code has been a difficult one for fans, and a truly hilarious one for everybody else.
2019 in Review
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Following the Los Angeles Galaxy over the last couple of seasons is a lot like that one part in Being John Malkovich where he goes into his own brain. I just realized like 90% of you are too young to know what that movie is, and I’m now sad.
First of all, that movie is really really good and you should go watch it. Second of all, I’m personally pretty stoked that the Zlatan era of Major League Soccer is over. It’s not that he wasn’t a good player, or that he wasn’t entertaining at times (he was very much certainly those things), but after a while, all of the “Zlatan signs MLS lmao” memes, and the constant deriding of the league and his teammates, oh and the forearms and elbows kind of… got old, you know? Look I’m shaking my fist at clouds here I’m sure, but Zlatan’s brashness is one thing when he’s winning, and something completely else when he’s not. Did Zlatan fail? By his own stated goals? He definitely did. By literally any other standard? Two thoughts on that:
1. Hell
2. No
He was incredible. Truly. Carried the Galaxy to the playoffs on his back. Has there ever been a more one-man team?
Actually yes.
Hi! Remember me?
Ah yes. The Atomic Ant. Of course, Giovinco’s 2015 shoot first and never ask any questions campaign stands atop the leaderboard here. Zlatan’s 2019 was only slightly less of a solo record, but while it’s certainly unusual, carrying this kind of scoring burden isn’t exactly unheard of.
| Season | Goal Involvement (% of Team's Goals Scored or Assisted) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 62.7% | |
| 2019 | 60.7% | |
| 2017 | 59.4% | |
| 2018 | 58.9% | |
| 2016 | 57.4% | |
| 2019 | 53.1% | |
| 2017 | 52.6% | |
| 2012 | 50.9% | |
| 2018 | 50.9% | |
| 2015 | 50.0% |
So is this good? Bad? Neither? Both? I mean, I think it’s not GREAT to rely on one player for so many of your goals, but it’s definitely not bad to have a guy that can be this productive. Probably in an ideal world every team would have like six guys who score exactly 15 goals a year, but that’s just not how the sport works. Hang on, I’m getting a message from LAFC here that they have accepted my challenge. Anyway, let’s pull back the lens on this a little bit and take a peek at xG+xA and check and see just how much of a team’s offensive game plan revolves around a singular figure.
| Season | xG+xA Involvement (% of Team's xG+xA) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 53.4% | |
| 2015 | 48.6% | |
| 2019 | 46.7% | |
| 2016 | 46.2% | |
| 2014 | 45.5% | |
| 2016 | 45.3% | |
| 2017 | 45.0% | |
| 2015 | 45.0% | |
| 2015 | 44.7% | |
| 2019 | 43.3% |
Hi Giovinco! We haven’t forgotten you! So yeah, one guy being Bono isn’t a unique roster makeup, but it does leave us to question what exactly went wrong if they had the best Bono of all?
Ok, a couple of things. It’s difficult to be critical of the Galaxy’s attack in 2019. Yes, it was certainly one-dimensional, but if you’ve got it, flaunt it. The Galaxy scored the fifth-most goals in the league, and our underlying numbers show that they scored about five more goals than our model expected them to. This is normal. Especially when you’ve got Swedish McWizardkicks on your team. Unsurprisingly, the Galaxy felt the loss of Giovanni dos Santos exactly this amount: No amount. Zlatan was as mentioned above, ethereal, but also Sebastian Lletget, Jonathan dos Santos, Ariel Antuna, and the late-arriving Cristian Pavon chipped in a little bit.
Oh no it wasn’t scoring, it was defense killed the beast.
This isn’t exactly brave new levels of hot-takery here, so I’m not going to waste a lot of time pointing out the specifics of this. Just that, you know, their defense wasn’t great. They let in more goals than Vancouver. More goals than Orlando. If you replace Zlatan with an average MLS striker, this team not only misses the playoffs but would make a great case for relegation. Diego Polenta, Giancarlo Gonzalez, Daniel Steres, Dave Romney, Jorgen Skelvik - these are not names that evoke images of an iron curtain. David Bingham did all he could and actually managed to produce a -2.47 x-xG. That was good for sixth-best in the league. So was the defense unlucky? Probably, but they also weren’t very good.
LA Galaxy 2019 tl;dr - Zlatan good. Defense bad.
CHICHARITO, BABY
At last, Chicharito has arrived in Major League Soccer. Don’t get me wrong, I like Chicharito. I think he’s a really good signing. I think it’s cool that after all of these years, it’s happened. It’s good, it IS, but it’s also kind of like what if Ross and Rachel got together in season eight? It’s nice, but I think a lot of us are kind of past caring at this point. I would be much more excited to see Chicharito at a team that actually needed an attendance boost, but where else was he going to wind up? Javier Hernandez is a great player, but if you’re needing him to be Zlatan 2.0 and drag this team on his back? I’ve got bad news for you. Hernandez has (had?) incredible speed. His instincts in the penalty area are sharp. His movement will be a handful for any MLS level defense. He isn’t going to be able to do it by himself though. Don’t expect him to drop deep like Zlatan did, or dribble three guys like Zlatan did, or make an incisive pass like Zlatan (when he felt like it) did. According to Understat, Chicharito stats out as a pretty average European striker. For the sake of comparison, you can see here that Zlatan was, well, basically twice the player in Europe.
What does this mean for Hernandez’s prospects in MLS? Probably very little, but I wanted to point out that while he’s definitely a very popular player, and will undoubtedly be a very good MLS player. We’re not talking about Zlatan Ibrahimovic here.
But that’s a little disingenuous. We aren’t really looking to answer the question: “Can Chicharito replace Zlatan Ibrahimovic?”, because the answer to that question is “probably not, no.” The more pressing issue is “Can the LA Galaxy win more matches in 2020 than they did in 2019?”, and that’s a far more interesting query.
Roster Changes
Players In:
GK - Eric Lopez - (Homegrown)
D - Emiliano Insua - (Free)
D - Nick DePuy - (LA Galaxy II)
M - Cameron Dunbar - (Homegrown)
M - Jonathan Perez - (Homegrown)
M - Sacha Kljestan - (Free Agent)
M - Aleksandr Katai - (Free)
F - Javier Hernandez (Transfer from Sevilla)
Players Out:
GK - Matt Lampson (Option Declined)
D - Dave Romney - (Trade to Nashville)
D - Diego Polenta (Option Declined)
D - Thomas Hilliard- Arce (Option Declined)
D - Jorgen Skjelvik (Loan to Odense)
M - Chris Pontius - Retired
M - Favio Alvarez (Option Declined)
M - Hugo Arellano (Option Declined)
M - Servando Carrasco (Option Declined)
M - Juninho (Option Declined)
M - Joao Pedro (Option Declined)
M - Uriel Antuna (Loan Expired)
M - Romain Alessandrini (Out of Contract)
F - Zlatan Ibrahimovic - (Mutual Termination)
F - Bradford Jamieson (Out of Contract)
That's a lot of outgoing mail, most of it junk. Notable departures aside from Zlatan include Diego Polenta, who seemed like the most competent member of the defensive corps, Uriel Antuna, the Galaxy’s second leading scorer with six goals, Jorgen Skjelvik, a defender with that most unwelcome combination of being bad and expensive, and alas pour one out for Romain Alessandrini who was excellent when healthy but a with the acquisition of Pavon taking up a DP slot, understandably surplus to requirements.
So in order for the Los Angeles Galaxy to be more successful in 2020 than they were in 2019 one of a few things needs to occur:
1. Score more goals than they did last year.
If the Galaxy are dead set on not improving their defense (and it seems like they may be), they’re going to have to find ways to score even more than they did with Zlatan. We’ve discussed Chicharito already, and he’s certainly going to be good for a lot of goals, but asking Chicharito to score as often as Zlatan did and actually MORE than Zlatan in order to compensate for bad defending? Well… It’s not my favorite strategy to be sure, but it’s not impossible and may not be necessary. As I mentioned above, Chicharito is a very talented player and a very productive one if he can get in behind the last defender. Polenta is gone, and with him a curious and under appreciated ability to play accurate long balls (his 0.06 xA per 96 from open play led all centerbacks in MLS and not by a small margin), but that may be ok. Hernandez will likely benefit from having two of the league’s best wide players creating space and providing opportunities. Pavon didn’t get a ton of time with the Galaxy last season, but the thousand minutes or so he did manage to snag were super productive.
Zlatan appreciated Pavon, and with expected assist numbers like this, I expect Chicharito will too. Pavon will have a full season with the team, and the prospect of him and Chicharito running breaks together does have a certain appeal. That’s not all, though.
I haven’t even mentioned Aleksandar Katai yet. That is because just thinking about how Chicago brought him in on loan, saw him have an average season, then decide they liked him enough to pay a transfer fee, THEN saw him have an elite season, and THEN decide to not renew his contract so the Los Angeles Galaxy could acquire him for free makes my eye twitch. Chicago’s loss is the Galaxy’s gain. Remember how we were talking about how excellent Alessandrini was? He was, but he took up a DP slot. The Galaxy are getting Katai for free and paying him TAM wages, and:
So cool. Cool cool cool. Katai, Pavon, and Chicha-freaking-rito. Very cool. Thanks Chicago. The Western Conference thanks you for that. The #10 is arguably the most pedestrian horse in LA’s midfield stable, and it’s Sebastian Lletget who is really good. If for whatever reason he’s sick, or too busy #gramming or whatever, backing him up LA will have an aging but probably still productive Sacha Kljestan, one of the best number 10s in MLS history. Oh he was a free agent too. Dope. Cool. LA scored 58 goals last year dependent almost entirely on Zlatan. Could they score closer to 70 this season as a committee? If everything goes about as well as it possibly could? Yeah. It’s possible. Do I expect it to happen? Not really, but I can’t fault Galaxy fans for being excited.
2. Get better at defending.
Hang on just checking some notes here… uh. Nope. In a development that should not have shocked me but did, this didn’t seem to be a priority for the Galaxy this offseason. They let arguably their best center back go and replaced him with uh, well, nobody. There might still be some reinforcements coming, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Emilianio Insua is replacing Jorgen Skeljvik, and that’s almost certainly an upgrade, but does it help out defensively? Not a ton, no. I was not impressed with Giancarlo Gonzalez last season, but it’s possible he’s improved? Daniel Steres is better than most people give him credit for, but that’s not a super high bar. Maybe neither of them get injured or suspended this season and it’s still at the most outrageously optimistic, fine, but I have my doubts. Rolf Feltscher and Insua should be good fullbacks, but Steres, Gonzalez, and Nick Depuy is a worrying center back depth chart. Maybe Insua can play CB in a pinch? Perry Kitchen? I suspect we’ll find out. Jonathan dos Santos is a brilliant DM especially in terms of passing and build-up, but defensively… he’s not enough to paper over the chasms of this back line (and he shouldn’t have to be).
3. Ok how about just a little bit better at defending?
Sorry yo.
A Word on Depth
The Los Angeles Galaxy’s depth outside of their fullbacks, GKs, and center mids, is to put it bluntly, more or less non-existent. Kljestan gives them a little bit of wiggle room in the midfield as he can cover at #10 and #8 which could free up Lletget to play out wide if need be. Efrain Alvarez is a very exciting prospect, and it looks like we’re going to see a lot more of him this season, but he’s also 17 years old and there’s a reason you don’t see a lot of 17 year olds, even very good ones, play a lot of professional soccer matches. As good as Chicharito is at kicking, heading, and running, he’s really REALLY going to need to focus hard on keeping the “not being hurt” part of his game at elite levels, because next man up is Ethan Zubak, a US youth international to be sure, but also a guy with 40 MLS minutes to his name. If Giancarlo Gonzalez and Daniel Steres don’t give you the warm and fuzzies, you better appreciate them and hope they stay healthy because the only other CB on the roster currently is a 25 year old Nick DePuy, a guy with 121 MLS minutes and one start way back in 2017 for the Montreal Impact.
2020 Outlook
Everybody has this team lined up as a championship contender, and with that eye popping attack, it’s understandable, but this team still has some glaring weaknesses, and the lack of depth in important positions could be their undoing if there is any kind of injury crisis. There’s still time to fill out this depth chart a bit, and they really really need to do that because it has some very notable absences.
Best Case Scenario: The defense isn’t great, but it doesn’t matter much at all. Pavon, Katai, Lletget and Chicharito are just too much for MLS defenses to handle. They stay healthy and happy throughout a successful campaign and score 60 goals between the four of them. A few defensive wobbles will cost them a match here and there, but it won’t be enough to throw them out of contention for being the best in the west.
Worst Case Scenario: None of that happens. Injuries pile up, and LA’s lack of depth up front can’t shield a back line that just simply isn’t up to snuff. There are great moments and thrilling matches when LA can get all of it’s attacking pieces in the same room, but this top heavy roster isn’t sustainable over the course of an entire season. This LA doesn’t make the playoffs again.
Realest Case Scenario: This is a playoff team that can be a contender if they have very good fortune with regards to injuries, suspensions, and call ups.