2020 Season Preview: Seattle Sounders FC
/Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
By Ian L (@ahandleforian)
Sitting down to write one of these things about a team that succeeded in the previous campaign, and then did what at least SEEMS to be a very good job of addressing their areas of need, is a difficult proposition. It’s much easier to scorch the earth than it is to just speak in an entertaining way about how generally good things are going. All of that being said, the weather sure is nice in Seattle during most of the Major League Soccer campaign and last year’s champions are, well, looking every bit like the defending champions they are.
2019 Review
It was once again a year in which the underlying numbers didn’t do a very good job of predicting how Seattle’s year was going to go. I’ve attempted to resolve this issue numerous times over the last few seasons, and am no closer to being able to explain it other than the fact that Nicolas Lodeiro is just real real good man. While Lodeiro was definitely the frontman again and will be for a few more seasons yet, his supporting cast stepped up in a big way in 2019. Raul Ruidiaz was lethal in front of goal, Jordan Morris rolled back the years (well, like two years), Cristian Roldan was dependable as ever, and Gustav Svennson continued to be one of the league’s most underappreciated central midfielders. Stefan Frei had somewhat of a down year being extremely good instead of omnipotent, and yeah we’re gonna shout out Kelvin Leerdam and Brad Smith for being real good outside backs. Analysts’ constant puzzling over Seattle’s success has become a meme of sorts among Sounders fans, so I’m gonna just duck that one this time around and say Seattle is really good at winning soccer games and they’re probably going to do that a lot in 2020.
| Goals | Goals Allowed | Goal Difference | Goals (Rank) | Goals Allowed (rank) | Goal Difference (rank) | Points | Points (rank) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xPected Numbers | 45 | 47.5 | -2.2 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 46.4 | 15 |
| Actual Numbers | 50 | 47 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 4 |
| Did Seattle win MLS Cup anyway? | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
So how are we looking for 2020?
Forwards
Seattle has Raul Ruidiaz. Raul Ruidiaz is really good. If Raul Ruidiaz does not miss a lot of time due to a foot injury this year he will score 20+ goals from open play. Will Bruin will be returning from injury and is a more than capable backup that would be a written in pen starter for several other teams in the league. Justin Dhillion, the third choice striker, has some really cool hair. Alfonso Ocampo-Chavez is an extremely promising youngster, and in his brief MLS minutes last season demonstrated that he won’t look out of place if called upon. I’m a big fan of the kid, but if he’s playing meaningful minutes up top, Seattle are probably in trouble.
| Top 5 Strikers in MLS (Open play xGp96) | Open Play xG p96 | Open Play Goals p96 | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Ruidiaz | 0.55 | 0.55 | 1920 |
| Zlatan Ibrahimovic | 0.55 | 0.72 | 2807 |
| Josef Martinez | 0.52 | 0.73 | 2757 |
| Brian Fernandez | 0.5 | 0.62 | 1540 |
| Chris Wondolowski | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2111 |
Midfield
Seattle figured out one piece of the offseason puzzle when they brought in “Accounting DP” Joao Paulo. Paulo was one of two main targets they were looking at. The other was Bahia’s ballhawk midfielder, Gregore. Gregore would have been a more defensive midfielder in the mold of an Ozzie Alonso. Watching video of Gregore gave me a deep infatuation with the man, and so it was somewhat disappointing when Bahia and Seattle simply couldn’t come together on the financials of such a deal. Joao Paulo is a different style of player. He still puts in work defensively when deployed in the middle of the field, but he lacks the kind of speed you need to be a roving destroyer. This may well be entirely made up for by the man’s ability to pass and his vision and range. Expect to see Paolo pinging balls out wide to Morris and Roldan from deep and sparking those quick counter-attacking moves Seattle love so much. Already in preseason, we’ve seen him dropping shiny dimes in the lap of Ruidiaz. There may be an adjustment period for the Brazilian (or, you know, not…), but all of the metrics and evidence that I’ve seen suggest that the man has the requisite quality to be a star in Major League Soccer.
The rest of Seattle’s midfield roles are more or less settled. Svennson will return to the center of the park for at least one more season, Lodeiro will play wherever the situation calls for, Morris now a fully converted wide player will be out wide, and his BFF Roldan will be on the opposite flank. This is the only potential wrinkle in a very good midfield. Roldan is obviously a versatile player and an outstanding MLS central midfielder. We’ve seen him deployed on the wing often enough to know that he’s capable there as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the first substitution is often Svensson coming off for a Nouhou/Joevin Jones, or Harry Shipp, or Miguel Ibarra, with Roldan sliding back to his more preferred central role.
Depthwise, Seattle are looking pretty strong at all midfield positions, even having Paulo able to play in the #10 role should Lodeiro be absent for any reason. This is good as what generally happens when Lodeiro is unavailable is that Seattle play real real bad.. Jordy Delem has improved each season in MLS, and is looking like a capable deputy when needed. Harry Shipp, Joevin Jones, Nouhou, and Handwalla Bwana are known and trusted quantities to Seattle’s coaching staff and will also be deployed in various midfield roles throughout the campaign. Ibarra is a new face in the midfield rotation. At one point in like 2014, I was told that Ibarra was really really good, and I’ve just sort of been operating under that assumption ever since. The truth is that his MLS career hasn’t exactly been the stuff of legend, but you never know! Change of scenery and all that, right? Seattle have had their eye on him for a couple of years so they clearly see something in him. An Ibarra resurgence would be a fun storyline, but if we’re being honest, he’s probably third or fourth on the depth chart in a couple of midfield slots. And of course, let’s not forget young Danny Leyva. The 16 year old has captured the hearts of Sounders fans with his youthful exuberance and surprisingly competent play for such a young professional. Seattle’s staff are very high on the youngster, and while I think they’ll be conservative in doling out his minutes this season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him climb higher on the depth charts than expected.
Danny Leyva v Olimpiapic.twitter.com/8puB7slLe4
— Watke (@Watke_) February 21, 2020
Defense
And so now we’re at the part of the concert where we’re playing all of the new material. With the exception of Leerdam, this backline is going to be the biggest question mark going into the new season. There isn’t a lot of reason to think that they won’t be a successful unit, but we just don’t KNOW yet do we? We got to see a good bit of Xavier Arreaga last season, and although the biggest impression he made on me was getting sent off in two consecutive matches, there was an awful lot to like about the Ecuadorian’s game. Arreaga is an aggressive defender who feels most comfortable challenging the first ball. His partnership with Kim Kee-hee was at times concerning (most games) and at other times thrilling (LAFC). Whether he’s ready or not, he’s going to be the starting CB week in and week out. What kind of defender do you pair with such a player? Chad Marshall. Since Marshall is deservedly embracing that dad life you have to look elsewhere.
Enter one Yeimar Pastor Gomez Andrade. Just with the name we’re off to an excellent start. Is Yeimar an absolute unit? He is certainly a stout presence. Standing at 6’2 and weighing in at some loose change over 200 pounds, even Roman Torres has to admit that boy thicc. I don’t have much to go on in the way of data here, as defender stats across leagues don’t tell us a ton, so we’re just going to have to trust my scouting bona fides (citation needed). Dude looks legit af. He moves well for a big lad, is obviously a hassle aerially, and based on what video evidence I was able to obtain, seems like he’s capable of hitting a decent long ball as well.
More than Paolo, this signing is going to make or break Seattle’s season. If he’s as legit as my eyes tell me, Seattle are going to be a very difficult unit to score on. If I’m wrong (and I thought Marc dos Santos was going to fix Vancouver, so let’s just say it isn’t UNHEARD of) and he’s a bust, that leaves Seattle worryingly dependent on a Tacoma Defiance player or a guy so famously great at defending that Orlando City was like, “eh… nah.” If you’re a Seattle fan, you need to pray daily for the eternal health and safety of Arreaga and Andrade, because the drop to the next level is pretty dang precipitous.
Hey, we haven’t had a conversation about whether or not Nouhou should be the starting left back in this article yet. Once again the starting left back spot is probably still up for grabs, although based on preseason lineups it would appear that Nouhou has it for now. Nouhou is an odd player, and maybe just an odd guy in general. It’s hard to argue that defensively, he’s a very talented player, it’s just that going forward he’s, and there’s no sense beating about the shrubbery here, terrible. Last season, Brad Smith was a pretty important cog in Seattle’s attack. Assuming you’re looking for a plug and play replacement, Joevin Jones fits that profile much better.
But it’s a new year, and perhaps that means new things. With two relatively new center backs, having an extra good defender back there isn’t the worst idea. We’ll probably have a better idea about Schemtzer’s plans for this position after Seattle’s first home CCL match, but regardless fans should be reassured that Seattle have options there.
On the other flank, Leerdam’s back-up appears to be Alex Roldan. This was not a development I foresaw as nothing in Alex Roldan’s play suggested to me that what he really needed was to play a position where he had less experience, but hey, here we are. You can’t fault the kid’s work rate and hustle. It’s obvious that Schmetzer really likes him, and it’s not hard to see why. I mean, we don’t have a TON of data on Roldan the younger, but what we do shows that for a winger, he was kind of decent on the defensive side of the ball.
That’s actually… kind of good? I mean, obviously, it’s a small sample size, and he definitely played a lot of minutes late in games where he was just there to see out a lead. This is also compared to wingers who are generally not very defensively minded players, but I’m starting to see from whence the seeds of this idea were planted.
That being said, it’s still probably a good idea to add Leerdam’s health to your list of nightly prayers.
As far as center back depth goes, Shane O’Neill is one of those, and Svennson can drop back there in a pinch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Tacoma Defiance signing either.
Goalkeeper
Stefan Frei is a great goalkeeper.
A Word on Management
This year I am vowing to stop worrying about whether Brian Schmetzer is a capable tactician. The fact is, I don’t know, and it doesn’t seem to matter one way or the other. American Klopp he probably is not, but whatever he’s doing is working. Schmetzer may not have the charisma or ego that you see from the guys who are considered the sport’s best managers, but his somewhat reserved pragmatism is doing the trick. He’s not leaving that post until he decides it’s the best thing for the team, and after three MLS Cup appearances and two championships in the last four years, I think he’s earned the right to make that call. Are there better managers in the league and world? Sure. Well… probably. Would any of them do a better job leading the Seattle Sounders? I very much doubt it.
Garth Lagerwey, who is still thankfully not fired by the season ticket holders (if I ever see Drew Carey we’re gonna have words about that brilliant idea), seems to have done a good job addressing Seattle’s most pressing needs. As mentioned above, Paulo is going to be an DP for this season, and that means that if things aren’t working out, there isn’t going to be a ton of flexibility for Seattle to bring in a big piece this summer. I would have preferred to see some defensive depth in the form of proven MLS guys than youth prospects, but I recognize that the CBA made things difficult this offseason. It seems as though Paulo can be bought down NEXT season if need be, so while it looks to be a pretty safe gamble that he’s going to work out, it’s a bet that can’t really be hedged in 2020. If Andrade and Paulo are the business, Seattle will be very capable of defending their title and Garth will get another good grade.
2020 Outlook
I think it’s pretty clear that MLS Cup is the main goal for this organization, and it’s working out pretty well. I’m sure they’d undoubtedly like to compete on multiple fronts, but the fact is that it’s just really hard to do in Major League Soccer. LAFC’s juggernaut is probably coming back down to earth a bit this season, but them and the Galaxy are probably going to be their main rivals for that top spot in the West. If (and this is eternally a big if) Seattle can stay healthy, they should be challenging for the Supporters Shield, but invariably there will be some four to eight game stretch this season where Seattle are blighted by injury and international call-ups, and that’s usually been enough to make that goal implausible. CCL just adds another wrinkle to that issue, and the Sounders have had trouble coming out of that early season high-stakes tournament without casualties in the past. Garth has stated that CCL was the big goal for the club this season, and him signing a DP in the winter window seems to back that up. Seattle actually has a really friendly CCL run in, and are probably the best positioned MLS team in the tournament. Is it going to happen? History suggests probably not, but it’s one of the last brass rings on offer so they have to try. Things are shaping up to be exciting this season. If the two new big arrivals come good, there aren’t a lot of teams in the league that can match Seattle ounce per ounce in the talent department. If you’re a Seattle Sounders fan you expect big things and this season is no different.