2020 Season Preview: San Jose Earthquakes

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Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.

By Jamon Moore (@jmoorequakes)

It was never going to be a worst-to-first story thanks to Los Angeles FC, but it had a shot at a worst-to-second story midway through the 2019 MLS season. Despite losing their first four games of the season (three of them at home) the San Jose Earthquakes found themselves in second place in the Western Conference by early August after a 1-1 home draw against the Columbus Crew. They were on a largely-dominant 10-game unbeaten streak. But something happened in that Crew game which would lead to the Quakes’ undoing the rest of the season – 2018 CONCACAF Coach of the Year Matias Almeyda was outcoached by the Crew’s Caleb Porter. Porter found the chink in the San Jose armor, and laid out a game plan in the second half of how to beat the Quakes for all the league to see. Columbus was able to hold possession through the first 20 minutes of the second half and exhaust San Jose defensively, leaving them out of gas. Only one of the Quakes’ final six shots were on target.

The Earthquakes would lose their next three, and nine of their last 11, only gaining wins over the hapless Vancouver Whitecaps and Orlando City the rest of the way. They would drop from second to eighth – four points out of a playoff spot – and wind up with a negative goal differential. Almeyda would be sent off in two of the remaining matches and was subsequently suspended for four more of those contests.

What Happened at the End of 2019

And as I sit here, I can explain it, but I also can’t. This is an analytics website, so I’m going to provide some analysis: the Earthquakes finished in the top seven spots in the Western Conference in all but two metrics that I believe are the best metrics at analyzing a team’s ability to secure a playoff spot. Here are some of the metrics that said San Jose should have been a playoff team in the Western Conference:

  • Goals For - T-5th

  • Goals Against - 2nd

  • Expected Goals For (xG) - 2nd

  • Expected Goals Against (xGA) - 5th

  • Expected Goal Differential (xGD) - 2nd

  • Head-to-head Expected Goal Differential - 2nd

  • Expected Possession Goals (Chance xPG) For - 4th

  • Expected Possession Goals (Chance xPG) Against - 2nd

  • Expected Possession Goals (Chance xPG) Differential - 2nd

  • Head-to-head Expected Possession Goals - 2nd

  • Shots For - 2nd

  • Head-to-head Shots For - 2nd

  • Shots on Target For - 2nd

  • Head-to-head Shots on Target For - 6th

  • Shots Against - 4th

  • Shots on Target Against - 4th

  • Shot Differential - 2nd 

  • Shots on Target Differential - 2nd

Of the 20 metrics and team stats that I track, the Quakes were sixth place or higher in the West in 16 of them, seventh in one more, and second in over half of them. I looked at a lot of head-to-head game shot metrics because the Quakes were setting shot records in the middle of 2019, so that might have skewed the season totals. But even head-to-head over the course of the season nothing much changed: the Quakes were winning the xG, xPG, shot, and SOT battles pretty much all season long -- win, lose, or draw.

The three metrics that said the 2019 Earthquakes should not be a playoff team? Head-to-head possession percentage, goal differential (GD), and points. Head-to-head possession is proven the least important metric to final table position (I don’t use it, but it’s included here for completeness), so the only two that really matter are goal differential and points -- especially points (fun stat: no team has ever finished below the playoff line in points and been in the playoffs). Next to points, goal differential is the best metric at determining final table positioning, followed by total goals for and total goals against. Up until the final two games of the season, San Jose had both the points and the goal differential to be in the playoffs.

Comparing metric team ranking in conference to final conference table standings in MLS from 2016 to 2019. Lower values mean the metric team ranking does a better job aligning to actual playoff positions. Goal differential is best aligned to final table position, head-to-head (H2H) possession % is the worst.

Metrics aside, Almeyda missing games for misconduct toward referees, plus Espinoza and Wondolowski red cards in Atlanta accompanying his second ejection -- in addition to distractions with Almeyda being courted by Monterrey Rayados -- put the team up against it when they should have been locking down a playoff spot. At home, the Quakes were missing their two best players against Philadelphia and were a misplaced header away from getting at least a draw against Seattle before Decision Day.

The Roster is (Almost) the Same...Again

So by virtually any advanced metric analysis the 2019 San Jose Earthquakes should have been a playoff team. General manager Jesse Fioranelli is banking on it, keeping the team almost completely intact this offseason.

The reason? Chemistry. Fioranelli told a group of reporters in December, including yours truly, that “conscious decisions [were] taken with regards towards the roster because if you were to speak with Matias, [Chris] Wondo[lowski], Flo[rian Jungwirth], even with Shea [Salinas], Daniel Vega, to any of the players that were showing up here during the offseason, we know we can do better than that. We feel that.”

By starting the season better in 2020 (the Quakes dropped their first three at home and four straight overall in 2019), as well as finishing the season at the same level as they start, Fioranelli is betting that will put the team into the playoffs. He continued, “[I kept the roster intact] partially because the club wanted it that way. Partially, because the players wanted it that way...I just want to remind ourselves what we lived through in 2019, and why I believe in why we can have a better start, why we can also finish the season better than we did in 2019. That’s how I look at things right now.”

Almeyda was quick to agree with Fioranelli when questioned whether he wanted more roster changes, “As an ex-player, I think that the most beautiful thing that a coach can do is keep 90, 95 percent of the roster," Almeyda said via his always-present interpreter, "That says that I trust the players, and that I trust that we will be able to participate at the same level or a bit better [as last year].”

The reason for the poor start to 2019 is blamed on the fitness Almeyda’s man-marking system requires and the knowledge of it. “We didn’t know each other”, Almeyda said at the start of the preseason. “This time around, we all know our methodology, we know how the players think and react, what we want, [and] how we want to train each day...Surely, the biggest reinforcement that we have is that we have a year together now.”

Resignings and the MLS SuperDraft

The Earthquakes haven’t sat on their hands all winter. Standout winger Cristian Espinoza was bought on a permanent transfer from Villarreal where he arrived from on loan in 2019. Defensive midfielder Judson protected a previously leaky backline with more coverage area than any defensive midfielder in the league -- yes, that includes Diego Chara -- had his loan bought out. 

Chris Wondolowski asked for one more year and got it (he’s quite firm this is his final season). Top defender and fan-favorite Florian Jungwirth was re-signed to a new deal. Additionally, the club seems excited about adding 2018 Pac-12 Player of the Year Tanner Beason, a left-footed center back, and Almeyda appears high on second-round pick and converted winger-to-central-midfielder Jack Skahan – who scored a golazo for the first Earthquakes goal of the new decade in preseason – although he’s not yet under contract. The big move from outside the league was adding left-footed center back (another one) Oswaldo Alanís from Chivas Guadalajara who knows Almeyda’s system.

Expected depth chart for opening night against Toronto FC based on Almeyda’s preseason lineups

Expected depth chart for opening night against Toronto FC based on Almeyda’s preseason lineups

Déjà Vu All Over Again

So, it seems set, correct? The Earthquakes should just roll out that 4-1-4-1 from last season with the same players and everything will be fine? Not quite. Last season, Almeyda started the season with the following players on the bench: Jackson Yueill, Florian Jungwirth, Nick Lima, Shea Salinas and Danny Hoesen. After results didn’t go well, he benched Wondo, Vako, Anibal Godoy, and 19-year-old Peruvian Marcos Lopez. He angered fans in starting Tommy Thompson, who had never played right back before, over then-USMNT regular Lima at right back. Once these snubbed players got their shot five games in, everything immediately changed.

Did Almeyda learn his lesson? Apparently not. Throughout the preseason, he’s started Hoesen and his 5 goals over Wondo and his 15 goals from 2019. He’s started Andres Rios as a second forward (1 goal, no assists, 1.7 xG+xA in 316 minutes in 2019) and moved Magnus Eriksson (six goals, seven assists, 13.7 xG+xA in 3006 minutes in 2019) into a deeper position. He’s started the slower Guram Kashia over the better interpreter of his system and far superior 1v1 player, Jungwirth. Kashia notably lost markers which cost goals and points in August and September — including, yes, in that Columbus Crew match. And, potentially due to a minor injury to Judson, he’s been playing a 4-4-2 with Yueill and Eriksson, neither of which understands well the necessary hand-offs in the man-marking system, in the central midfield. Time will tell if Judson will replace one of them, but with Yueill likely to join the US U-23s for Olympic qualifying the Earthquakes should expect to play with Eriksson and Judson for most of March and April. Yueill’s anticipated absence may explain the decision to go with Rios and move Eriksson back, and Hoesen starting over Wondo may be explained by his ability to stretch the field and provide space for Rios, who has scored multiple goals this preseason playing underneath him.

Daniel Vega is set to start the season, but the club is very high on another US U-23 player, JT Marcinkowski, who got a few starts back in 2018. If the 37-year-old Vega struggles, once the Olympic cycle ends for the US, expect Marcinkowski to get his shot again. Former backup-turned starter-turned backup Andrew Tarbell was recently sent to the Columbus Crew for a small bit of GAM making the line of succession much more clear. Matt Bersano should be in the 18 while Marcinkowski is away, but then should return to USL Championship affiliate Reno 1868 FC after that.

I’ve been disciplined to only include each player once, although Almeyda will see some fluidity with several players here. For example, he’s more likely to play Lima at right back in a critical game than Paul Marie. This assumes Jack Skahan will be signed this week, now that Tarbell’s roster spot is open. For a deeper dive into the roster and these positions see my offseason update.

Another thing Almedya has to contend with is the amount of experience against and available high-definition video of his vaunted man-marking system from year one. Once the Crew provided the blueprint to dismantle it, the Quakes never recovered. Is there some change or new wrinkle for 2020? When pressed, Almeyda responded, “Last preseason in Cancun, we carried out our preseason at 80 percent of what we had planned in regards to drills, in the interpretation of what we were looking in our system of play.” 

This may indicate that there may not be a new wrinkle, but rather further understanding of the intricacies of the system should have been explored this preseason.

Almeyda was visibly frustrated at the end of the season with the difficulties playing away games after long commercial flights and blamed the team’s lack of away results on it. San Jose finished next to last in the West on away points on 2019. This year, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) requires some charter flights, meaning the San Jose can no longer hide behind this excuse.

2020 Prognosis

Maybe Fioranelli and Almeyda are right. Maybe chemistry will give them an edge over all the MLS teams that have been scrambling to assemble their rosters. But maybe the rest of the league have the Quakes figured out and will be better prepared for them this season. If the former, the Quakes are in the playoffs looking at a Western Conference fifth seed. If not, they could finish tenth. The real answer is probably somewhere in the middle with the Quakes fighting for a spot again on Decision Day. One way or the other, this is the last season for this group of Earthquakes, and the last season for an MLS legend.