The Unofficial 2020 MLS MVP Finalists
/By Zach Beery
The finalists for the Landon Donovan MVP award were announced this past week. The nominees are Andre Blake, Nicolas Lodeiro, Jordan Morris, Alejandro Pozuelo, and Diego Rossi. The winner will be chosen by current MLS players, MLS club employees, and select media members. There is no set criteria for how the MVP is chosen; voters can choose whoever they think is most deserving of the award. Luckily, American Soccer Analysis developed the robust goals added (g+) metric that will add another layer to the debates. Since g+ measures every single action completed on the pitch, we can use this metric to be able to determine the most “valuable” field player. That brings us to the question: what does it mean to be most valuable? I propose five methodologies that can be used to determine the 2020 MVP using g+.
Pavon’s g+ on a per 96 minute basis
1) Most Goals Added – Christian Pavon
This one is pretty simple. The player who added the most goals to their team would have a strong case to be the MVP. Christian Pavon added 8.42 goals in 2020, more than any other player. The majority of the added goals are a result of Pavon’s dribbling (4.08) and receiving (2.20). Pavon added 93% more goals with his dribbling than the next highest player, Lewis Morgan. This is nothing new for Pavon. He played even better on a per 96 basis in 2019 (.49 g+ per 96 in 2019 vs .39 g+ per 96 in 2020). Pavon also led MLS in goals added above average with 3.48.
But he won’t be winning the trophy this year. Pavon was left off the MVP finalist list due to playing for an abysmal LA Galaxy team that didn’t even make the playoffs. This is the Mike Trout problem. Mike Trout constantly leads MLB in WAR each year but his team usually misses the playoffs. Based on WAR, Mike Trout would win the MVP every year, and using g+ Christian Pavon should win MVP the last two years. That said, especially in a season when 70% of the league is making the playoffs, it’s not difficult to see why he didn’t make the cut.
| Team | MVP Year | raw g+ | g+ rank that season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 9.8 | 4th | ||
| LAG | 2014 | 15.3 | 1st | |
| TOR | 2015 | 13.3 | 1st | |
| NYC | 2016 | 12.5 | 2nd | |
| POR | 2017 | 7.2 | 24th | |
| ATL | 2018 | 13.4 | 3rd | |
| LAFC | 2019 | 18.6 | 1st |
2) T-Most Goals Added Playoff Team – Diego Rossi / Jordan Morris
If we narrow the player pool to just playoff teams, the leaders in goals added are Diego Rossi and Jordan Morris with about 7.46 goals added each. The bulk of Rossi’s contributions come from receiving the ball in dangerous areas. Both players exceled in receiving the ball in dangerous areas, with 4.02 and 4.38 receiving goals added for Morris and Rossi respectively. Unlike Pavon, Rossi and Morris were named finalists. Voters will most likely lean towards Rossi; he is the leading goal scorer with 14 goals and Lodeiro will take away some votes from Morris, given they are on the same team. The leading goal scorer has won the MVP award the previous two years and the three MVPs before them were all in the top three leading goal scorers. Voters love goals. Apparently voters loved g+ as well, even before it existed. Here is how the 2013-2019 MVP winners rank in g+ in their respective seasons - Mike Magee (4th), Robbie Keane (1st), Giovinco (1st), David Villa (2nd), Diego Valeri (24th), Josef Martinez (3rd), and Carlos Vela (1st). All rank in the top four in g+ except for Valeri in 2017. Rossi’s resume will be hard to beat, as he is first in goals and tied for second in goals added. However, his team underperformed based on expectations and LAFC finished 7th in the Western Conference, which may hurt his chances.
3) Most Goals Added Above Average on the Supporters’ Shield Winning Team – Mark McKenzie
So far, raw goals added has been our measurement of choice. The leader in raw goals added for the Union, this year’s Supporters’ Shield winner, was Kacper Przybylko with 6.41 goals added. Mark McKenzie had 5.15 goals added. Goals added above average adjusts each player’s goals added output based on their positions. This will give a more representative framework of each player’s impact to the game based on their position. When you look at goals added above average, McKenzie led the team with 2.01 goals added. Przybylko only added 0.64 goals above average.
McKenzie was the best CB in the league according to g+ and his team allowed the fewest amount of goals in the league. The majority of McKenzie’s value came from Interrupting with 1.29 goals added above average (0.06 per 96). McKenzie wasn’t an MVP finalist though, and in the 25-year history of the league, no defender has ever won the MVP award.
4) Highest Percentage of Team’s Goals Added – Christian Pavon
LA Galaxy had a rough year. Their star signing, Chicharito, only scored twice, they allowed the 2nd most goals, and they finished in 10th place in the West. On the bright side, the team’s underlying metrics don’t look quite as bad on goals added differential.
Based on goals added differential, LA Galaxy looks like an average team and average teams usually make the playoffs in MLS. The narrative around the Galaxy would be substantially different if they made the playoffs. Without Pavon, the underlying metrics and the actual standings would have been a lot worse. Pavon accounted for 30% of LA’s 24.30 goals added, a higher percentage than any other team. Pavon was more valuable for his team than any other player, but was he worth $20 million to the LA Galaxy? That brings us to our next category: who provided the most goals added for the money?
5) Lowest Cost per Goals Added Above Average – Ayo Akinola
I think it is most appropriate to use goals added above average for this category. It will more fairly represent the monetary value by position. The salary used is as of September 2019 (the most recent released), so new players for the 2020 season were excluded from this exercise. With a base salary of $56,256 and 1.49 goals added above average, Ayo Akinola provided $38K per goal added. One concern is that 1.1 of Akinola’s 1.49 goals added was from the three group stage games of the MLS is Back Tournament where he scored five goals. He has not been as effective since, as his goals added per 96 dropped from 0.36 to 0.04. We will have to wait to see if he can get back to his MLS is Back form in 2021 or if he was just feasting off of rusty defenses.
Final Five
Our five MVP candidates are Christian Pavon, Diego Rossi, Jordan Morris, Mark McKenzie, and Ayo Akinola. Christian Pavon wasn’t a finalist because his team was so bad. Ayo Akinola was the most valuable for the money, but he did not do enough over the course of the season to be in consideration. McKenzie isn’t a finalist for MVP, but is in contention for Defender of the Year. Jordan Morris and Diego Rossi were named MVP finalists, and we’ll see soon if one of them take home the trophy.