Offseason Outlook: Sporting Kansas City
/By Kevin Minkus (@kevinminkus)
Since sending Dom Dwyer to Orlando halfway through 2017, Sporting Kansas City have been without an above average center forward. Dwyer’s 2016 season was the last year an SKC player finished in the top 10 in MLS in goals. Since then, Kansas City’s leading scorers have logged just 8, 11, and 12 goals. In MLS 3.0, lacking an elite striker up top is a little bit inexcusable.
In Alan Pulido, SKC probably now have that striker.
There has been some pushback, from my colleague Harrison Crow in particular, that maybe center forward isn’t actually the problem:
Here is a reasonable argument in favor of that point: Sporting Kansas City’s attacking metrics were actually not bad. They finished 7th in the league in xGF, and only underperformed in real goals by about four. (If Daniel Salloi finishes at a league average rate in 2019, SKC are a top-10 offense in actual goals, as well). They averaged 15 shots per game, 6th most in the league. Generally, their offense could create chances. On the other hand the defense allowed 67 goals! It’s the defense that really let them down in 2019.
I think game states actually obscure a lot of SKC’s difficulties up top. Teams that are trailing a game tend to get more and better chances than when the game is tied or they’re ahead, and SKC spent about 900 minutes playing from behind. That’s only the 12th most in the league, but Kansas City were the fourth best offense in the league when trailing.
In even game states, they were not great. They averaged about 13 shots per 90 in tied games, which is the middle of the pack, but their average shot quality was among the league’s lowest, and as a result they averaged about 1.0 expected goals for per 90 - 8th worst in the league. 538’s SPI model attempts to account for the effects of game state in determining team strength. They have SKC’s offense as the 12th worst in the league.
So, to summarize, I do think the offense was a problem for SKC in 2019.
Now, whether SKC needed a new center forward is a separate argument from whether Pulido in particular is the right center forward. Dan Altman is not particularly high on him:
Neither is the internal ASA braintrust. John Muller pointed out that Pulido was worse in per 90 G + A minus PKs in Liga MX than Romario Ibarra. Eliot McKinley pointed out that he’s really only ever had one good half-season of production. It was probably a good time for Chivas to sell high on their 29-year old forward.
Anyway, let’s talk about the rest of the team.
Areas of depth:
Forward line: In addition to Pulido, SKC added back Khiry Shelton up top. Shelton was pretty good but not quite great in 2018, his last season in MLS before heading to Paderborn, in Germany. He put up 0.53 xG + xA per 90 that year, which is roughly Fafa Picault, Hector Villalba, Daniel Salloi territory. He can play anywhere in the front three, and the team should just about be set there with his and Pulido’s additions.
Goalkeeper: 2019 was the first season since his Chivas USA days that Tim Melia did not save more shots than expected. This year he was about average in terms of G - xG, but he’s been much better than average on the whole since joining SKC in 2015. One way to read this might be as age-related decline. But he’s only 33. Brad Guzan and Luis Robles, and previously Nick Rimando, have all remained quality shot-stoppers through their mid 30s. A more likely read is that SKC’s defense was worse this season in some bad ways - they were awful at preventing counter attacks - and that required more of Melia than in years past. I think it’s okay to count on him in 2020. His backups - either Eric Dick or Richard Sanchez - should be perfectly cromulent, though ideally one of them would develop into a potential full-time starter.
Areas of need:
Fullbacks: Luis Martins and Graham Zusi are the likely fullbacks of choice heading into 2020. Martins was decent down the stretch, after joining the team in August, and should improve with a full offseason to work in Peter Vermes’s system. Zusi is 33 now though, and can’t cover ground defensively like he used to. Neither Graham Smith nor Jaylin Lindsey are especially convincing as backups, however, and the team could probably use additional depth on either side.
Center backs: With Roberto Puncec in the fold, SKC could be set on center backs, but there are rumors they might be looking to add one more. That’s probably reasonable. Matt Besler is on the wrong side of 30, and Andreu Fontas is an expensive liability. The team could afford more depth in this spot in the form of a player to push Botond Barath and Besler for starts. Barath has been solid, but SKC whiffed on the Fontas signing. It will be interesting to see whether their recruitment has improved.
Areas of ???:
Sporting’s defense was bad last year, particularly at preventing counter attacks. A lot of this probably falls on their midfield, which generally was too easy to play through. Vermes values flexibility in his players, and as a result has a number of different options for what he might choose to do to improve the midfield. Some of his decisions here, too, will depend on how ready he believes the team’s young prospects are.
Felipe Gutierrez can play any of the center mid spots in a 4-3-3. He spent most of 2019 as the number 10, but was also effective filling in for Ilie playing more defensively. Gutierrez there might give the team it’s highest floor, as Ilie kind of often looked outmatched trying to defend space as the lone defensive mid. If Vermes moves Gutierrez back, the team needs a TAM-level CAM. Gianluca Busio is improving but still not capable yet of getting the keys to the car.
Wan Kuzain is Ilie’s supposed replacement for the future, but he’s not there yet. He’s now 21, and after getting 300 minutes in MLS in 2018, couldn’t get any run in 2019. If Kuzain’s not ready, and Vermes prefers Gutierrez further up the field, the team needs a TAM-level central midfielder to spell Ilie and Roger Espinoza, who is now 33 and also slowing down. Felipe Hernandez might develop into that player, but like the rest of the team’s youth players, is not there yet.
Outlook:
Kansas City is in a difficult spot age-wise with their squad. They have a number of aging veterans, all of whom are close to done as everyday MLS starters. They also have a number of potentially exciting prospects, none of whom are quite ready to step into everyday starting roles. Vermes will either have to roll the dice on youth, or fill in the gaps with TAM players for another season. If 2019 had ended with a playoff appearance, perhaps it’d be worth it to risk things by betting on the young guys. But it didn’t, and SKC shelled out $6M+ on a 29 year old striker. They’ll need one or two more pieces in the midfield and in defense to capitalize on the window that they’ve built for themselves.