Offseason Outlook: FC Cincinatti

By Jeff Bull (@jeffbull5)

FC Cincinnati’s life in MLS started in 2019 with a roster build that received a near-universal side-eye. The year ended with the team grasping for scraps of dignity (rough translation: losing every hand in a game of strip poker on a very, very cold day). The 2019 season would see Cincy take disturbingly credible runs at the league records so awful that they looked like they’d haunt the teams that set them for year to come, maybe decades – e.g., DC United’s 2013 record for single-season losses (24) or Orlando City SC’s 2018 record for goals allowed (74).

Cincinnati took only one of those records – the new high-low bar for goals allowed is 75! – but, sweet baby Jesus, did their season die a brutal death and with abundant co-morbidities. Long scoring droughts ruthlessly paired with defensive meltdowns throughout the 2019 season (e.g., a 1-5 road loss to Orlando, a home loss by the same score to Toronto FC, or the 1-7 mid-season loss at Minnesota, aka, The Game that Stabbed Hope Over and Over and Over and Over and Over and Over and Over).

So, what the hell happened? What went wrong, I mean besides “so many things, more than the hairs on your back”?

The Short Version

For the curious or masochistically inclined, I posted a (pretty damn) long version of everything that went wrong on my own site. For this space, I’ll shorten them into bullet points:

1) An uncomfortable mix of “defensive midfielders” and box-to-box midfielders that couldn’t attack effectively, who that also failed to defend;

2) A combination of chaos and panic between the front office and the coaching staff; and

3) A DP-forward/alleged franchise player in Fanendo Adi, who delivered just one goal, a lot of complaints about a lack of service, and one DUII (drunk driving, the locals use another acronym).

Throw in injuries to key/potential starters – Greg Garza and Fatai Alashe jump out there – and you’ve got a big pile of bad news. Hair-raising hell aside, Cincy’s regular season did end on a bit of an up: the team got organized and started to play the defense-first theory behind the original, defender/defensive midfielder-heavy roster build. That lonely positive makes for a good starting point for thinking about the Orange & Blue’s 2020 season. Let’s take them chronologically:

The Rebuild, Part I

FC Cincinnati took steps to improve the team during the second half 2019, bringing home Andrew Gutman at right back, Joseph-Claude Gyau (still with the team) and Derrick Etienne, Jr. (who is not) as attacking options and, perhaps most significantly of all, Mikael van der Werff, in central defense, an upgrade over, say, Nick “Hometown Hero” Hagglund. It wasn’t enough to remake the team – certainly not on the attacking side - but they’ll have the 2020 preseason to see if they can’t get a little something out of Gyau and Gutman (van der Werff settled in all right).

The Rebuild, Part II

The arrival of new head coach, Ron Jans, serves up a plausible theory for that little late-season upswing. You had to stab forks into your legs to stay awake while you watched them, but Cincinnati kept better shape and more confidence with what to do and where to be in on the field down the stretch. That feels like a coaching outcome, but time will tell, 1) if it carries over (or if it just followed from playing some desperate, demoralized teams down the stretch – e.g., Orlando, D. C. United, and the Chicago Fire), and 2) if he can get more (or just goals) out of the team.

Standing Pat on 13

In the review linked to above, I “[expected] HELLA turnover” in the 2020 roster. Cincy’s FO disagreed, holding onto 26 players from last year’s roster (for now), and, for what it’s worth, I think Cincy’s FO made the right call. Working with the same players gives Jans more time to sort out and fit together a functioning first team, where he can make in-game adjustments and with which players. It’s a gamble, no question, but it feels wiser than a wholesale rebuild.

A Special Secret (Potential) Upside

If you look at Cincy’s roster, you’ll see a fairly young team. Outside of van der Werff, Kendall Waston, and, assuming he sticks around, Emmanuel Ledesma (all just over 30), nearly all the other field players are at, or on the right side of 25 (for purposes of this argument, younger than). They’ve got issues, they might not even be able to play together (see review), both Frankie Amaya (21) and Allan Cruz (23), especially, still have potential on which to build. If either or both can reach said potential, that would give Cincinnati a plausible core, even if it needs work, time and, without question, more tinkering on the attacking side.

The Rebuild, Part III

FC Cincy finalized the signing of former Philadelphia Union midfielder Haris Medunjanin this past week. He should help pace the team generally, but Medunjanin will provide a level of precision that Cincinnati was absolutely starved for in 2019 – something that could address another larger, lingering issue. The team also rescued Saad Abdul-Salaam from the re-entry draft, and he’s an MLS-ready fullback who will provide useful competition, if nothing else. Is that enough to make them competitive? Good Lord, no. Not even close. More below…

The DPs: Crisis and/or Opportunity

Cincinnati has just two DPs: Cruz and Adi. Once the team moved him to a box-to-box role, Cruz turned into Cincy’s most dangerous attacking threat (he managed only seven goals and one assist, but opposing teams struggled with his late runs, which gave Cincinnati a threat). As for Adi, he wants to leave Cincinnati and Cincinnati wants him to leave (the entire city, possibly), so getting him out of town looks like a win-win, assuming they can drop Adi’s contract in someone else’s lap. At the same time, Medunjanin could provide the kind of service that works for Adi – e.g., not crosses, last season’s bread-‘n’-butter, which worked better with Cruz’s runs – which means it’s possible, however unlikely, that Adi could have a “normal” 2020 season in Cincinnati. I think they’d still prefer to move Adi (for instance, do his teammates even like him?), but, as I’ll argue below, this team has DP-level needs that it must address in order to become even playoff competitive.

View fullsize

A better (?) lineup

Where Things Stand (Underwater, Thanks!)

I saw the following listed as FC Cincinnati’s projected, provisional Starting XI for 2020; lined up in a “possession-based 4-3-3”):

Goalkeeper: Spencer Richey (GK) (they ended 2019 with Przeymslaw Tyton)
Defense (right to left): Mathieu Deplagne, Kendall Waston, van der Werff, Garza
Midfield: Leonardo Bertone, Medunjanin, Cruz
Front Three: Kekuta Manneh, Brandon Vazquez, Darren Mattocks

First, can I see Jans trying that Starting XI? Yeah, sure. Can I see it working? Jesus, no.

While it’s got decent attacking upside – both Bertone and Medunjanin can pass, and Cruz has a good engine and see notes about his attacking runs – that midfield would get run right over going in the other direction. There’s not a ball-winner in that bunch; Bertone probably comes closest, but without getting near to useful. If Fatai Alashe manages a healthy (relatively suspension-free) 2020, he might work as a No. 6 behind Bertone and Medunjanin (so, more of a 4-1-2-3; Caleb Stanko could serve as an alternate, but he was hardly lights out when he played that role last season). That would mean pulling either Cruz or Bertone, or moving Cruz into the front three, something that didn’t work either. As much as I trust that back four and both of those ‘keepers – perhaps more than I should, honestly - the only thing I see coming out of that set-up is another run at all the wrong defensive records.

As for that front three, unless Vazquez has Superman talent under a Clark-Kent exterior, I’d be shocked and depressed if FC Cincinnati lined that up. It’d be better with Adi in it (mmmaybe), but, unless Medunjanin really gets locked in, how much better doesn’t look like a lot. Cincys’ FO is still in negotiations with Emmanuel Ledesma, the team’s best chance-creator in 2019 (six goals, five assists), and, in that three-man set-up, he’d improve on either Manneh or Mattocks (for what it’s worth, I’d give Manneh priority), but I’d be surprised if he improved much on his 2019 numbers…and that’s where the story ends, with more questions than answers.

There’s no question that FC Cincinnati needs some upgrades, but where? An attacking winger? A replacement for Adi? A(nother) deep lying midfielder with some defensive chops? Bottom line, if Jans can make the current iteration of this team useful, he’s a damn genius. At time of writing, their best-case looks like Plan A going into 2019: a team that can’t win much, but one that’s also hard to beat.