New York Red Bulls: Postseason Preview
/By Eric Walcott (@ericwsoccer)
At times this season the New York Red Bulls have looked like a very good soccer team, sometimes even harkening back to the 2018 Red Bull team that set (what was then) an MLS record for points in a season. Case in point, nine of New York’s 14 wins this year have come against playoff teams. That included wins over FC Dallas, Atlanta, and Real Salt Lake during a five match unbeaten stretch early in the season and back to back wins over Portland and Philadelphia during a late season run to put them into the playoffs.
There have also been times when the Red Bulls have looked exceptionally mediocre. They’ve looked like a team that not only lost its most important player in Tyler Adams, but also lost a whole lot more of something else as well, despite mostly returning their entire squad from 2018. The flip side of nine wins against playoff teams was picking up only one point from four games against Montreal and Columbus.
Unfortunately for Red Bull fans there was far too much of the latter and not near enough of the former. A few things might be to blame for the Red Bulls’ decline this season. The aforementioned loss of Tyler Adams has certainly had a significant impact. The offense struggled in part because of the decline of Bradley Wright-Phillips, who through a combination of injuries and maybe finally age fell off significantly in production this season. Aaron Long won Defender of the Year in 2018, and Kemar Lawrence finished 5th in voting, but neither of them found the same form in 2019, even when they weren’t out with injury or national team callups. Of course it could all just be Chris Armas’ fault, which is certainly what some supporters think.
All that said, a win against Montreal on the last day of the season would’ve meant a home game in the playoffs. Instead they get a road date in Philadelphia.
Team Statistics
Possession: 46.8% (18th in MLS)
Passes Per Game: 431.1 (21st in MLS)
xG For: 46.8 (12th in MLS)
xG Against: 43 (12th in MLS)
A few things stand out in the numbers from this season for New York. Perhaps most visibly was the decline in production from BWP. Probably at least partially as a result of that, Kaku’s assist numbers were also noticeably down from 2018, despite his chance creation metrics actually being up a tick from last season.
| Season | Min | Shots | G | xG | KeyP | A | xA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2702 | 2.42 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 1.28 | 0.21 | 0.18 | |
| 2019 | 1236 | 1.94 | 0.16 | 0.3 | 0.93 | 0.08 | 0.13 | |
| 2018 | 2537 | 1.55 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1.82 | 0.38 | 0.23 | |
| 2019 | 2066 | 1.44 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 1.86 | 0.19 | 0.25 |
The attempt to replace Tyler Adams in the midfield has also not gone according to plan. The plan, according to the team and in particular Sean Davis (he talked about this on the ASA podcast recently, which you really should listen to if you haven’t already) was for Davis to take up more of that defensive responsibility this season, freeing up guys like Marc Rzatkowski to do more doing forward. Cristian Casseres was also supposed to help fill that role.
While Davis has done the defensive work (he’s top 10 in MLS in clearances, tackles, tackles won, and interceptions) it hasn’t actually led to other players attacking more in the way they had hoped. Some of that may be due also to tactical changes made by Chris Armas, but here’s Marc Rzatkowski’s 2018 numbers compared to 2019:
| Team | Season | Shots | xG | KeyP | xA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYRB | 2018 | 1.31 | 0.12 | 2.51 | 0.27 | |
| NYRB | 2019 | 1.57 | 0.10 | 2.26 | 0.19 |
Rzatkowski’s shots are actually up a bit from 2018, though he’s producing fewer xG per 96 minutes, so he’s taking more shots, but they’re worse shots. More importantly, his chance creation numbers are down, which is the opposite of what New York had hoped would happen.
Here’s how Davis, Rzatkowski, and Casseres stack up against other MLS midfielders this season:
While Rzatkowski and Casseres actually look pretty good here from an xG+xA perspective, remember that Rzatkowski’s numbers are down from 2018, and New York had been counting on an increased contribution there. Also, the passing bars there really stand out for three defensive midfielders. Yes, the Red Bull system leads to lower quality passing (and more progressive passes), but you’d still hope for better here.
Something that surprised me looking at the numbers was that Daniel Royer had a fairly standard Daniel Royer season this year. Maybe it was because others around him shined less brightly, but my eyes told me Daniel Royer was more productive in 2019 than in previous seasons. Turns out, he was pretty much the same player:
2017
2018
2019
One slip in form that has perhaps gone under the radar this season has been the form of Luis Robles. In 2018, Robles outperformed his xGA, posting a -5.4 G-xG meaning he conceded over five fewer goals than expected, 4th best in MLS. In 2019, Robles G-xG sits at 2.12, one of the worst in MLS.
Related to that, we stats people often bring up the phase “regression to the mean” in talking about trends that don’t seem sustainable. Well, let me just say if the Red Bull defense had simply regressed to the mean, they’d probably be a lot higher in the standings. Instead, they took a massive swing from “significantly outperforming their expected goals against” to “significantly worse than their expected goals against.”
| xGA | GA | GA-xGA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40.7 | 32 | -8.7 | |
| 43 | 49 | 6 | |
| 2.3 | 17 | 14.7 |
Conceding 17 additional goals while only having an xGA increase of 2.3 from one season to the next is an almost impressive level of unlucky and bad. For someone looking to explain why the best team in MLS in 2018 is a six seed in the East this year, that might go a long way.
Lineup
Here’s my best guess at New York’s lineup against Philadelphia this weekend. The loss of Kyle Duncan to injury will hurt a lot. The pick I’m least sure about is Josh Sims out on the right. I could see Armas going a bit more defensive and start Alex Muyl there, saving Sims for later in the game.
Why The Red Bulls Won’t Make the MLS Cup Final:
Last year’s Red Bull team won a Supporters’ Shield and set an MLS record for points. They had Tyler Adams, Kaku, and BWP at the top of their game, and they still couldn't get it done in the playoffs. Now, BWP is a shadow of himself, Tyler Adams is gone, and Kaku is still very good, but not playing at the level he was in 2018. Add to that the fact that Kyle Duncan is out and the defense hasn’t been nearly as good this year and you’ve got the recipe for a quick exit.
Why the Red Bulls Will Make the MLS Cup Final:
I’ll admit I sat and puzzled with this one for awhile. If Red Bulls finally win MLS Cup maybe you can all thank me for the reverse jinx, because I’m having a hard time seeing how Red Bulls make MLS Cup Final short of everyone else in the East falling apart. It’s not that the Red Bulls can’t beat each and every Eastern Conference team in the playoffs. They have (well, except New England). It’s just that the consistency hasn’t been there this season to put together the run they would need to reach the final. Maybe BWP discovers the elixir of youth for four magical games. Maybe Kaku turns it on, Royer gets hot, and Josh Sims brings glory to the Red Bulls before heading back to Southampton. It’s possible. It just doesn’t seem likely.