New England Revolution: Postseason Preview
/by @ahandleforian
2019 IN REVIEW
I loathe Brad Friedel. I’m going ahead and getting this out of the way because it’s important that you understand that I’m writing this preview balanced precariously on a high horse and sipping a cocktail of equal parts gin, schadenfreude, and vindication. I found his appointment puzzling, his teams maddening, and his termination surprisingly cathartic for me despite it being about a team I honestly could not care one iota less about. I don’t hate the New England Revolution. No, it’s just been a very long time since the New England Revolution have given me any reason to feel any one particular thing about them beyond the occasional moment of amusement or confusion. Look he was a bad manager, but for reasons I probably can’t even suitably convey, his whole, I don’t know - whatever THAT was - became personally offensive to me.
Brad Friedel was the manager and things were very bad. New England took EIGHT of the first 36 points on offer. They let 30 goals in while the kid who would go on to be the league’s best goalkeeper this season sat on the bench for no discernible reason. Brad Friedel was a goalkeeper. If there was any ONE single thing he should have gotten right, it was playing the right keeper. He did not. Brad Friedel was terrible at this job. I cannot stress that enough, but that does not mean I will not try. Let’s move on, though. Following a 5-0 loss to Chicago (which was just the last in a string of four matches that saw New England concede an appalling 18 goals, and if that isn’t a record, may God have mercy on the team that topped that), Brad Friedel was summarily dismissed and the sun started to peek out a bit in Foxborough. The Bruce Arena era had begun and things seemed to stabilize. They pulled out of the tailspin they were in, but while results have obviously greatly improved, the underlying numbers are… well, they’re technically better!
| Manager | Games | Shots | Shts Againt | G | GA | GD | xGF | xGA | xGD | GD-xGD | pts | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedel | 12 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 0.92 | 2.5 | -1.58 | 1.31 | 1.76 | -0.45 | -1.14 | 0.67 | 1.11 |
| Arena | 22 | 14.9 | 15.7 | 1.73 | 1.23 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.78 | -0.38 | 0.88 | 1.68 | 1.17 |
Hmmm.... Is it possible that New England were getting fewer points than they probably deserved at the start of the season and then getting more points than they probably deserved towards the end? It definitely is a possible yes. Can elements of luck solely explain the sudden shift in fortunes? No. Luck AND Matt Turner though? Now we’re getting somewhere. I hinted at this above, but I cannot speak highly enough of the job that one Matty Turner came in and did in the back 60 percent-ish of the season.
MLS End of Season Awards rarely go to the most deserving players, but the fact that Matt Turner wasn’t even a finalist has truly revealed the extent to which the MLS award voting bloc has failed us. Look, I did my best, but we’ll have to wait a bit on the Matt Turner parade. Looking at Matt Turner’s G-xG of -10.69 reveals that, even playing only 60% of the season, he still posted the third-best total at this metric in our entire dataset (going back to 2011). Tim Melia in 2017 posted a G-xG of -13.27 over 2935 minutes. Stefan Frei in 2018 posted a G-xG of -12.59 over 3178. These two seasons are generally acknowledged to be two of the finest goalkeeping campaigns in the history of the league. Matt Turner did -10.69 in 1900 minutes. Sean Johnson was a finalist for Goalkeeper of the year. Sean Johnson faced fewer shots and made fewer saves in 2800 minutes than Turner did in 1900 and we’re going to say that Turner shouldn’t qualify because he didn’t “play enough”? Matt Turner did a full season’s worth of goalkeeping and then some in 1900 minutes because he played in front of a terrible defense. Matt Turner is the main reason why the New England Revolution are in the playoffs.
THE SQUAD
Honestly, I can’t promise you that I’m not going to start ranting about Matt Turner again before this article ends, but I’ll do my best. Let’s talk about the rest of the team. Carles Gil was great! The newly anointed MLS Newcomer of the Year was about the only bright spot in those dark, early days of Spring. Whatever New England was doing offensively, they were doing it almost entirely through the ever-present Carles Gil.
Gil led the team in total xG, total xA and touch percentage (13.7%). Three New England players attempted over 1000 passes this season. Andrew Farrell (1222), Brandon Bye (1337) and then way above that was Carles Gil (2109). Dome Torrent, manager of the Eastern Conference winning MLS team NYCFC, put it rather bluntly:
"To me they have one important player and that is Carles Gil," Dome said before the Revs game. @etmckinley's passmap agrees.
— The Outfield (@OutfieldNYCFC) September 9, 2019
Up a man, NYCFC posted some of the most lopsided xGF and xGD in @AnalysisEvolved's nine seasons of data but squeaked out a thriller in added time. pic.twitter.com/9Twbsldzpa
And honestly, he’s not wrong. As good as some other New England players have been - Gustavo Bou has been excellent, and a full season of him next year is enticing to say the least, Brandon Bye has been good, Andrew Farrell probably deserves more credit than he’s gotten, heck even Teal Bunbury carried the water for a few weeks - without Gil, this offense simply doesn’t function. Ok so maybe there are two main reasons why New England is in the playoffs. Carles Gil and Matt Turner.
WHY NEW ENGLAND WON’T MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL
Well, for several reasons honestly, the main one being that they aren’t as good as the other teams are. I could make that statement more nuanced, but it wouldn’t make it any less true. The fact that New England are here at all is pretty crazy when you think about how the season started. They have probably the worst bracket spot in the entire tournament. They have to go to Atlanta and get a win there somehow. If they manage to do that they’ve either got a trip to Philadelphia or RBNY, and if they somehow get through that, their likely destinations are either Canada or wherever NYCFC decides to play their home match. All that to say, it just doesn’t look like it’s in the cards, and that’s ok! This wasn’t going to get turned around in half a season, and the fact that it kind of sort of did is plenty of cause for celebration.
WHY NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL
Because this is the Major League Soccer playoffs, and so NONE of the stuff I just said in the previous section actually matters. The new playoff format means that a single mistake from any team can cost them everything. Do I expect New England to be the last team standing from the Eastern Conference side of the bracket? I definitely do not but let’s let Bruce Arena himself have a say:
#NERevs coach Bruce Arena when asked about being an underdog in #MLSCupPlayoffs: "I don't know what you mean by underdog. What do you mean by that?"
— Jason York (@JYonSports) October 17, 2019
Me: "Like, not favored."
Arena: "Who favors anybody in this league?"
We here at ASA tend to take almost the opposite view on a lot of issues regarding analytics and statistics than Bruce Arena does. While we respect the man’s accomplishments we really aren’t fans of his “soccer managin’ from his gut” approach to things, and that’s fine - he’s managed in a World Cup and I look at soccer spreadsheets all day. All of that being said, It’s hard not to agree with him here though. While I think we’re starting to see more and more separation of MLS franchises, the gulf in quality doesn’t seem like enough that any result is more or less guaranteed. Stranger things have happened. They wouldn’t be the first flawed team to win an MLS Cup. New England coming out of nowhere and marching to a championship would be a fitting end to a season that gave fans the full gamut of emotions. But also, you know, nah… not going to happen.