DC United: Postseason Preview

by @kevinminkus

2019 REVIEW

Early into the 2019 season, DC United looked like a contender in the East. Through May 15th, they had picked up 24 points in 13 games, including a win over last season's champion, Atlanta, and a 5-0 victory over RSL. Their schedule, though, was pretty soft. Those two games were their only wins over playoff teams, and they lost to NYCFC, LAFC, and Minnesota. After their first 13 games, DC played a tougher schedule, and they hit a slide. They got just 15 points out of their next 16 games, with wins over only Orlando, Cincinnati, and LA. DC United ultimately did save their playoff hopes with a 5-game unbeaten streak to close out the season, but their Decision Day draw to 9-man FC Cincinnati relegated them to playing on the road for the entire playoffs.

TEAM STATISTICS

During that opening stretch, DC’s offense ran through Luciano Acosta and Wayne Rooney. While DC didn’t exactly look to create from possession early in the season, they didn’t actively shun it, either. Here is their 7 game rolling possession numbers:

They hovered right around 49% possession for that early 15 game span.

During their mid-season slump, they flipped a switch back to more classic Bennyball - a bunker and counter approach designed to limit high quality chances on defense and create quick transition opportunities on offense. In the last 13 or so games of the season, DC’s possession numbers were closer to 45 or 46%.

The returns on that tactical change are unclear. Certainly, the team’s downturn stopped, and they got into the playoffs. But DC’s underlying metrics never really improved (and in fact look fairly poor overall for a playoff team). Here’s DC’s expected goals for over the course of the season:

Even during the team’s opening run they were worse than league average at creating chances, and throughout the back part of the season the offense hung around 1.1 xGF per game. In terms of non-underlying metrics, DC United recorded the 4th fewest goals scored of any team this season.

On the other side of the ball, 2019 DC United also do not look especially strong. Here’s their 7 game rolling xGA over the season:

The defense actually did start out a bit better than average, but then spent the majority of the season, much worse than average, even after switching to a bunker. Only in the last 7 or so games did the defense tangibly improve. 

Now, DC did allow only 37 actual goals, even though ASA’s underlying metrics like them much less than that. One positive note for the Bennyball system is that the shots DC gives up are fairly low quality on average: they’re the 4th lowest in the league in average xGA per shot. They just allow a ton of them (17 shots per game, 2nd most in the league).
By advanced stats, this amounts to a pretty bleak picture. ASA’s xGD has them at -13.7, 4th worst in the league (though one spot ahead of also-in-the-playoffs New England). According to 538’s SPI metric, DC are the worst team in the playoffs. The offense is below average, and so is the defense. This was the case both before and after Ben Olsen’s tactical change.

HOW THEY PLAY

DC United will probably come out in a 4-2-3-1 against Toronto that looks something like this:

This lineup is what DC has run out for their last three games. Wayne Rooney will drop deep to get on the ball in transition, and the defense will stay pretty compact. Paul Arriola will link up with Rooney on offense, and chase the ball around the midfield while defending.

THE FIRST-ROUND MATCHUP

This pattern gives DC United a nice tactical advantage in their first round matchup against Toronto FC. TFC defend actively in the middle of the field, with Jonathan Osorio and Marky Delgado positioned higher upfield than Michael Bradley to better win the ball farther from goal. This makes it tough to play through the middle. DC, in their counterattacking scheme, don’t really try to do that there, though. Instead, Rooney drops deep into the half spaces, especially the left one, to get on the ball there:

TFC are vulnerable to teams that attack in transition down the flanks, - which is generally how DC United tries to play.

DC are, though, going to struggle to get the ball there in the first place. Typically, when they win the ball back, rather than hoofing it upfield with their defenders (who are not great passers by our pass score metric on the whole), they dump it to their defensive midfielders to then hit outlets to the flanks. Toronto’s advanced center midfielders generally work to prevent that kind of circulation.

The other tactical battle to watch for is how Arriola defends Michael Bradley. Bradley dictates Toronto’s offense with his diagonal long balls to the wings. Pressuring him in the midfield, and preventing him from having time to pick his passes, can mitigate some of Toronto’s ability to create overloads and one-on-ones out wide.

WHY DC UNITED WILL MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL

DC’s strengths are set pieces and defending, and sitting deep and scoring on counters and on set pieces is a perfectly fine way to get through a tournament. DC United get 4.6 shots per game from set-pieces, free kicks, and corners, the most in the league, and the average quality of those shots is the 6th highest in the league. Steve Birnbaum and Frederic Brillant are just big bodies to throw at a problem, and they’ll make life tough for opposing defenses. Bill Hamid has also been excellent at stopping shots in 2019 - he’s been a top 5 keeper and is third in goals allowed above expected. Those are all good things to have for a deep playoff run.

WHY DC UNITED WILL NOT MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL

Like I covered in the Stats section, DC have not played especially well in 2019. While they limit the quality of opposition chances, they still give up a large quantity of them. 17 shots per game is just too much pressure to concede for an entire playoff run. It’s not sustainable. Combined with playing every game on the road, and an offense that couldn’t manage a goal against Cincinnati, it looks like DC is due for an early exit.