Gold Cup Team Preview: United States

By Jared Young (@jaredeyoung)

Group Stage Schedule

Date	Time (ET)	City	Venue	Home	Away
07-Jul	9:30PM	Frisco	Toyota Stadium	USA	HON
10-Jul	8:30PM	Foxborough	Gillette Stadium	USA	HAI
13-Jul	9:30PM	Kansas City	Sporting Park	PAN	USA

On July 7th the United States Men will play their first competitive match in nearly a year, and in so doing begin their defense of the Gold Cup. A successful run through the final in Philadelphia would guarantee their place in the Confederations Cup in 2017, and confirm them as the dominant force in CONCACAF. Failure to win would not be the end of the world, but it would put a damper on the momentum the team has recently built with a positive World Cup run followed by overall strong performances in this cycle’s friendlies. In the end, a Gold Cup win keeps the U.S. on Jurgen Klinsmann’s aggressive path to improvement. An exit of any kind will start to raise doubts if the team has the talent to make a serious run this cycle.

Group A

Country	Avg Age	Avg Caps	ELOrank	FIFArank
USA	27.2	30.5	14	27
Panama	26.7	34.8	38	54
Honduras	26	30	76	75
Haiti	26.7	22	97	76

What Group are they in?
They are in Group A, along with Panama, Haiti, and Honduras. The winner of which will play the Group B/C third place team, the runner-up will play the Group B winner and third place will be weighted against other third place teams for the chance to play the Group C winner. If the USA is able to win the group (you should be rioting if they don't), they'll likely face Canada or Jamaica in the first knockout round.

The USMNT roster

Player	Position	Team	Country	Age	Caps
Brad Guzan	GK	Aston Villa	England	30	30
Nick Rimando	GK	Real Salt Lake	USA	36	21
William Yarbrough	GK	León	Mexico	26	2
Ventura Alvarado	D	América	Mexico	22	5
John Brooks	D	Hertha BSC	Germany	22	12
Timmy Chandler	D	Eintracht Frankfurt	Germany	25	21
Brad Evans	D	Seattle Sounders FC	USA	30	19
Omar Gonzalez	D	LA Galaxy	USA	26	25
Tim Ream	D	Bolton Wanderers	England	27	12
Fabian Johnson	D	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Germany	27	32
Kyle Beckerman	M	Real Salt Lake	USA	33	45
Alejandro Bedoya	M	Nantes	France	28	39
Michael Bradley	M	Toronto FC	Canada	27	98
Brad Davis	M	Houston Dynamo	USA	33	17
Mix Diskerud	M	New York City	USA	24	30
DeAndre Yedlin	M	Tottenham Hotspur	England	21	17
Alfredo Morales	M	Ingolstadt 04	Germany	25	10
Gyasi Zardes	M	LA Galaxy	USA	23	7
Graham Zusi	M	Sporting Kansas City	USA	28	28
Jozy Altidore	F	Toronto FC	Canada	25	80
Clint Dempsey	F	Seattle Sounders FC	USA	32	112
Aron Johannsson	F	AZ	Netherlands	24	12
Chris Wondolowski	F	San Jose Earthquakes	USA	32	27

The roster composition shows that Klinsmann fully understands the sense of urgency. Over the course of the dozen friendlies since the World Cup, Klinsmann has capped 24 position players that were not on the World Cup roster. However, only five of those experiments did well enough to make this Gold Cup roster; Tim Ream, Brad Evans, Ventura Alvarado, Alfredo Morales and Gyasi Zardes. William Yarborough is the sixth new player since the last competitive match, coming on as the 3rd goalkeeper. The other seventeen players have recent World Cup experience. Despite testing a lot of players over the past year, Klinsmann has ultimately stayed with the core group that he already had success with.

The USMNT against CONCACAF

Since the World Cup, Klinsmann has put together a rigorous set of friendlies with three games against CONCACAF nations, three games against CONMEBOL and six against UEFA nations. They managed a 2-1-0 (W-D-L) record against CONCACAF and an impressive 3-2-4 against the tougher competition, with all but two of those latter games being played on the road.

The U.S. plays a much different game against CONCACAF foes, and expect this to continue in the Gold Cup. Against CONCACAF the U.S. plays very proactively and pushes forward to control the game.

Their passing attempts against CONCACAF teams are nearly the inverse of their experience against the other continents. They managed 56% possession against the three CONCACAF teams and just 44% the rest. Interestingly the U.S. was less efficient with their shot creation against CONCACAF, likely because those opponents sat deeper and played more conservatively.

This apparent inefficiency against CONCACAF did result in an advantage for the opponents who outshot the U.S. 30-23. But that’s where the advantage ended. Despite 56% possession, the U.S. averaged fewer than 8 shots per game, but the USMNT was more selective with their shots (consistent with their performance during all of the last twelve friendlies). The U.S. put 10 of those 23 shots on frame and scored five times, boasting much higher efficiency than the average team.

Meanwhile, the CONCACAF teams put just five shots on target. Yes, that’s right, 30 shots taken, just five on target. How is that even possible? Well, the U.S. did a terrific job limiting the shots taken by forwards. Here is the difference in shots taken by position.

Part of the reason for the USMNT’s defensive success is because the amount of shots they allowed by defenders. So while their opponents are taking more shots, they are not being taken by their best shooters. This could be due to the fact that the CONCACAF opponents were playing primarily from behind and were more desperate, but the fact that the U.S. was able to dampen the virility of the strikers is very impressive.

Given they will be playing all home games, expect the U.S. to take possession as they have in the past CONCACAF friendlies, which were also at home. But expect them to continue to be very selective with their shots. Their shot on target rate of 44% since the World Cup is exceptional. They may allow more shots as they have consistently this cycle but there will be a big disparity in quality.

The position battle out wide

Perhaps the most intriguing storyline from a position perspective is the play on the wings. Graham Zusi and Alejandro Bedoya are the World Cup incumbents, and while Bedoya's work rate is legendary, few would argue the U.S. needs a major upgrade on the wings if they are to take the next step. Zardes picked up five caps recently, mostly on the wing, and DeAndre Yedlin was listed as a midfielder on Klinsmann’s roster. How much time will Yedlin, Zardes, and even defender Fabian Johnson get on the wing compared with Klinsmann’s favorites? The spine of this team with Jozy Altidore, Clint Dempsey, Michael Bradley, Kyle Beckerman, and John Brooks appears solid, but the wing play will define how far this U.S. team will progress this cycle.

The Outlook

There really is only one outlook. Anything less than the Gold Cup Final would be a major disappointment, and even a loss in the final would disappoint most. The tournament is theirs for the taking. They will play in front of rabid fans who are thirsty to see their team win. They have a seasoned roster and are coming off an impressive string of friendlies. But for now the focus is on July 7th and Honduras, who was the one CONCACAF team to draw the U.S. last year. If they can put together a statement game against Los Catrachos there will be few who doubt they will win it all.