Germany finished well, but probably didn't even need to

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By Matthias Kullowatz (@Mattyanselmo)

Brazil's embarrassment at the hands of ze Germans set at least one World Cup record for a game this deep into the tournament. And while Germany would not likely score seven more goals given the same chances, it's not as though it lucked its way into the finals.

Devin Pleuler noted via twitter that it was something of an unusual spanking.

In other words, it wasn't as "lucky" as other lopsided victories have been in the past.

Our Expected Goals model probably undervalues Germany's performance because we can't control for the proximity of defenders or the time available to shoot. Additionally, teams with big leads typically lose the expected goals battle during those gamestates. Oh, and they were playing the former tournament favorites, not Saudi Arabia. Those things make it all the more impressive that Germany manhandled Brazil by Expected Goals, as well as on the scoreboard. Below one can find Expected Goals data by game from this World Cup.

Competitive refers to minutes played when the score was within one, and Comp.xGD is the Expected Goal differential during those times.

Team Opponent xGF xGA xGD Competitive Comp.xGD
GER ALG 3.28 1.01 2.26 126.4 2.03
FRA HON 2.19 0.17 2.02 50.6 0.98
GER POR 2.47 0.53 1.94 31.1 0.10
BRA CMR 2.60 0.69 1.92 50.0 0.74
NED ESP 2.82 0.97 1.84 65.0 -0.00
GRE CRC 2.33 0.52 1.81 129.4 0.88
FRA SUI 3.13 1.34 1.79 17.2 0.11
CIV JPN 2.11 0.39 1.72 96.1 0.07
BEL USA 3.60 2.27 1.33 125.2 1.54
SUI HON 2.35 1.03 1.32 30.5 0.70
RUS KOR 1.72 0.40 1.32 95.0 0.77
GHA USA 1.92 0.65 1.27 99.3 -0.13
JPN GRE 1.69 0.49 1.20 96.3 1.20
CRC URU 1.78 0.64 1.14 85.4 -0.03
GER BRA 2.42 1.30 1.13 22.1 0.37
ESP AUS 1.16 0.09 1.07 69.9 0.63
BRA CHI 2.27 1.24 1.02 127.8 1.02
ALG KOR 2.23 1.26 0.97 27.6 1.24
BRA MEX 1.44 0.48 0.96 93.3 0.96
ENG URU 1.58 0.63 0.95 96.0 0.22
ARG SUI 2.29 1.36 0.93 129.8 1.66
BIH NGA 1.98 1.05 0.92 94.3 -0.01
ESP CHI 2.16 1.25 0.92 42.9 0.21
FRA ECU 1.98 1.14 0.84 96.1 0.84
SUI ECU 1.50 0.68 0.82 95.3 0.39
FRA NGA 1.32 0.51 0.82 93.2 0.82
ARG IRN 1.54 0.73 0.81 96.5 0.81
NED CHI 1.34 0.57 0.77 92.1 0.43
AUS CHI 2.01 1.35 0.66 71.7 -0.25
GER USA 1.22 0.59 0.63 94.3 0.98
ECU HON 1.25 0.63 0.62 97.3 0.27
CRO CMR 1.88 1.31 0.58 48.2 0.21
NED CRC 1.51 0.93 0.58 129.1 0.58
POR GHA 1.88 1.33 0.55 96.0 -0.22
POR USA 1.96 1.43 0.53 97.5 -0.05
URU ITA 1.01 0.50 0.52 98.0 0.49
BEL RUS 1.22 0.71 0.51 94.4 0.43
BEL ALG 0.89 0.39 0.50 94.5 -0.12
ARG NGA 1.62 1.14 0.48 96.0 1.02
FRA GER 1.64 1.21 0.43 95.5 0.09
NED MEX 1.09 0.67 0.42 100.9 -0.10
URU COL 1.12 0.72 0.40 50.1 -0.09
BRA CRO 1.14 0.77 0.37 92.6 0.18
ENG CRC 0.43 0.13 0.30 93.2 0.30
COL JPN 2.39 2.09 0.30 82.3 0.81
ENG ITA 1.31 1.01 0.30 97.3 -0.53
BIH IRN 1.05 0.77 0.28 62.4 0.26
COL CIV 0.99 0.74 0.25 91.9 0.38
GRE CIV 1.20 0.97 0.23 97.8 0.48
COL GRE 1.19 0.97 0.22 58.5 0.23
BEL KOR 1.40 1.21 0.19 96.4 0.79
ARG BIH 0.73 0.55 0.18 74.7 0.11
GER GHA 1.26 1.13 0.13 95.2 -0.08
CRC ITA 0.88 0.75 0.13 95.8 0.19
CMR MEX 1.12 1.04 0.08 96.1 0.13
BEL ARG 0.60 0.52 0.08 97.0 -0.13
NGA IRN 0.72 0.67 0.06 94.0 0.06
MEX CRO 0.85 0.80 0.04 76.7 0.04
AUS NED 1.58 1.55 0.03 95.3 0.74
BRA COL 0.85 0.82 0.02 84.7 0.31
RUS ALG 0.65 0.64 0.02 95.1 0.14
ALG RUS 0.64 0.65 -0.02 95.1 -0.14
COL BRA 0.82 0.85 -0.02 84.7 -0.31
NED AUS 1.55 1.58 -0.03 95.3 -0.74
CRO MEX 0.80 0.85 -0.04 76.7 -0.04
IRN NGA 0.67 0.72 -0.06 94.0 -0.06
ARG BEL 0.52 0.60 -0.08 97.0 0.13
MEX CMR 1.04 1.12 -0.08 96.1 -0.13
ITA CRC 0.75 0.88 -0.13 95.8 -0.19
GHA GER 1.13 1.26 -0.13 95.2 0.08
BIH ARG 0.55 0.73 -0.18 74.7 -0.11
KOR BEL 1.21 1.40 -0.19 96.4 -0.79
GRE COL 0.97 1.19 -0.22 58.5 -0.23
CIV GRE 0.97 1.20 -0.23 97.8 -0.48
CIV COL 0.74 0.99 -0.25 91.9 -0.38
IRN BIH 0.77 1.05 -0.28 62.4 -0.26
ITA ENG 1.01 1.31 -0.30 97.3 0.53
JPN COL 2.09 2.39 -0.30 82.3 -0.81
CRC ENG 0.13 0.43 -0.30 93.2 -0.30
CRO BRA 0.77 1.14 -0.37 92.6 -0.18
COL URU 0.72 1.12 -0.40 50.1 0.09
MEX NED 0.67 1.09 -0.42 100.9 0.10
GER FRA 1.21 1.64 -0.43 95.5 -0.09
NGA ARG 1.14 1.62 -0.48 96.0 -1.02
ALG BEL 0.39 0.89 -0.50 94.5 0.12
RUS BEL 0.71 1.22 -0.51 94.4 -0.43
ITA URU 0.50 1.01 -0.52 98.0 -0.49
USA POR 1.43 1.96 -0.53 97.5 0.05
GHA POR 1.33 1.88 -0.55 96.0 0.22
CRC NED 0.93 1.51 -0.58 129.1 -0.58
CMR CRO 1.31 1.88 -0.58 48.2 -0.21
HON ECU 0.63 1.25 -0.62 97.3 -0.27
USA GER 0.59 1.22 -0.63 94.3 -0.98
CHI AUS 1.35 2.01 -0.66 71.7 0.25
CHI NED 0.57 1.34 -0.77 92.1 -0.43
IRN ARG 0.73 1.54 -0.81 96.5 -0.81
NGA FRA 0.51 1.32 -0.82 93.2 -0.82
ECU SUI 0.68 1.50 -0.82 95.3 -0.39
ECU FRA 1.14 1.98 -0.84 96.1 -0.84
CHI ESP 1.25 2.16 -0.92 42.9 -0.21
NGA BIH 1.05 1.98 -0.92 94.3 0.01
SUI ARG 1.36 2.29 -0.93 129.8 -1.66
URU ENG 0.63 1.58 -0.95 96.0 -0.22
MEX BRA 0.48 1.44 -0.96 93.3 -0.96
KOR ALG 1.26 2.23 -0.97 27.6 -1.24
CHI BRA 1.24 2.27 -1.02 127.8 -1.02
AUS ESP 0.09 1.16 -1.07 69.9 -0.63
BRA GER 1.30 2.42 -1.13 22.1 -0.37
URU CRC 0.64 1.78 -1.14 85.4 0.03
GRE JPN 0.49 1.69 -1.20 96.3 -1.20
USA GHA 0.65 1.92 -1.27 99.3 0.13
KOR RUS 0.40 1.72 -1.32 95.0 -0.77
HON SUI 1.03 2.35 -1.32 30.5 -0.70
USA BEL 2.27 3.60 -1.33 125.2 -1.54
JPN CIV 0.39 2.11 -1.72 96.1 -0.07
SUI FRA 1.34 3.13 -1.79 17.2 -0.11
CRC GRE 0.52 2.33 -1.81 129.4 -0.88
ESP NED 0.97 2.82 -1.84 65.0 0.00
CMR BRA 0.69 2.60 -1.92 50.0 -0.74
POR GER 0.53 2.47 -1.94 31.1 -0.10
HON FRA 0.17 2.19 -2.02 50.6 -0.98
ALG GER 1.01 3.28 -2.26 126.4 -2.03