Week 30 (Sept. 29 - Oct. 6)

Home	Away	hwin	awin	tie	spread
PHI	CHI	0.591	0.156	0.253	0.87
DCU	SKC	0.307	0.398	0.295	-0.18
NYRB	HOU	0.532	0.216	0.252	0.62
VAN	FCD	0.459	0.250	0.291	0.33
NE	CLB	0.433	0.214	0.354	0.32
LA	TOR	0.612	0.149	0.239	0.92
SJ	POR	0.436	0.221	0.342	0.38
COL	SEA	0.397	0.307	0.296	0.13
CHI	MTL	0.477	0.219	0.304	0.50
CHV	RSL	0.270	0.458	0.272	-0.33

Notes

*Two away teams have the upper hand this week in Sporting KC and RSL. 

*The model is not convinced that Colorado is dead. The fact that the Rapids have the most underperforming underperformer by goals scored versus expected goals is just one indication that positive regression is likely.