MLS PWP through 6 Weeks: Does the wheat begin to separate from the chaff?

You might not think that six weeks is enough to begin to categorize what teams are performing well and what teams aren't - I may even agree with you to an extent, but here's the thing: we're six weeks in, and patterns are beginning to take shape. Instead of just showing the combined Index for all 19 teams I'm going to split them up into the Eastern and Western Conferences to show a different view.  And here's my link to the Introduction to PWP.

Here's all the Eastern Conference teams up after 6 weeks (note some teams have yet to play six games):

Observations:

The intent here is to offer up a graphic that shows which teams are performing better in attack than their opponents so far. No intent here to write off anyone, yet... too early for that with 28 games and a maximum of 84 points still being available.

Let's just say that Berhalter and Vermes have their teams in top gear - while Hackworth, Olsen, Petke, Heaps and Nelson are still fine tuning... as for Klopas, Yallop and Kinnear performance needs to get better and I'm sure they already know that.

As a reminder - this Index is the difference between how well a team executes the six primary steps of Possession with Purpose versus how well their opponents execute those same steps against them. A negative number thus means that, on average, the opponent is performing those six steps better (collectively) than that team.

I'm not a betting man yet on this Index, but if you think the odds are good that Columbus wins the Eastern Conference, then a flutter of $20/20 BPS might be a worthy chance. Spreading your bet across the field with Sporting Kansas City and one or two other teams might be worthy as well... for now I'm not seeing Montreal make it; but that's just me.

On to the Western Conference:

Observations:

Like the Eastern Conference, it's too early to go too deep, and the high flying teams play each other three times this year just like those guys back east; when LA and FC Dallas square off it should be interesting...  all the while Colorado and Seattle continue to get better, with Vancouver and the ever present/haunting Real Salt Lake looking to make a strong mid-year run.

As for Portland - times are hard early on this year and a 15-game unbeaten streak would be a much needed does of medicine to put them into the thick of things. How San Jose and Chivas cope remains to be seen - and given the styles I've seen from them this year, it appears crosses are their primary way to penetrate.

If you're a betting guy, I'm even less sure about the West than the east at this point - for now spreading the bets where the odds are good seems a likely choice with LA probably being the front-runner... is this the year where big money shows value in the West, like New York garnered last year in the East?

As for the top performing PWP attacking teams in general; here's how they compare against each other across all of MLS:

Observations:

While there is no sure thing if you're looking for teams who are more likely to put goals past their opponents in multiples it's likely the top 5-10 teams are those that can - whether they prevent the same number of goals is a different story.

Note Real Salt Lake is in the top 7 here but sits in 6th place overall in the Western Conference PWP - for me that indicates Real are operating pretty much like they did last year; score goals and work harder than your opponent to score more goals while relying on your defense to keep you in the game... without that stoppage time goal by Edu this past weekend it's likely RSL would have been higher up the Western Conference PWP Index.

Note also that Sporting remain in the top ten for Attack - they've always been viewed as a great defending side - the higher up the attacking scale they reach the more likely they will be balanced for another run at the Championship.

On the other end - New England and Toronto are bottom dwellers here but they are getting points; why so low?  In working their own style Toronto have started the season averaging just over 40% of the possession with just 64% accuracy in their overall passing - what we are seeing is timely penetration against opponents who are out of shape, position wise (for the most part) - recall also Defoe has been injured too.

As for New England - their accuracy and possession numbers are solid - where things drop off are their ability to create shots taken (2nd lowest in MLS so far this year) and their ability to convert those shots taken into shots on goal and goals scored.  Their goals scored percentage based on shots on goal is just 12.22%.  That is the lowest goal scoring conversion rate in MLS - and a whopping 56% points lower than FC Dallas - who have converted (on average) 68.33% of their shots on goal to goals scored...

Other notable pieces of information - both Columbus and LA are averaging better than 80% accuracy in 'all' passing totals; the teams doing the best in penetrating based upon total passes are New England (29.49%) with Houston, Columbus, Philadelphia and Chicago all hovering around 22%.  The team creating the most shots given their final third penetration is San Jose at 26%, Toronto at 25% and Chicago at 25% - can you say counter and direct attack (be it on the ground or in the air)?

The teams most successful in putting shots on goal compared to shots taken are Colorado (42%) Real Salt Lake (42%) Vancouver (41%) and FC Dallas at (40%)...

Moving on to the Composite PWP Defending Index...

Observations:

Not much separates the good from the not so good and perhaps the ugly; and it's too early to label anyone as really ugly.

For now the team most successful in holding their opponents to low passing accuracy percentages are Sporting KC (opponents just 70.25% accurate per game) with Real holding opponents to 71.97% accuracy, DC United 71.98% accuracy and Philadelphia holding opponents to 71.55% accuracy.

As for allowing penetration based upon overall passes; opponents of San Jose penetrate over 24% of the time while Vancouver also permits opponents to penetrate about 24% of the time.

In opponents completing final third passes the team most successful in limiting completed passes in their defending third is LA at 12% while Toronto's defense offers up a stingy 13.57%.

The teams allowing the most shots taken versus passes completed in their defending third are Chivas at 41.65% and New York at 40.55% - you wonder why I keep harping on New York that's why... they just don't defend that well in their own final third...

Teams yielding the most goals scored per shots on goal, per game, are Chivas at 45% (begging the question: why couldn't Portland score more than one goal?), Philadelphia at 43% while LA Galaxy allows a stingy 17% of their opponents shots on goal converted into goals scored.

In closing...

Just week 6, but patterns continue to develop - as the season unfolds I'll do my best to offer up these tidbits for your consideration.

For the future, I have a post coming up that speaks to formations and defensive activities - still need about 4 more weeks for that one to have enough data to offer some observations on it.

All the best, Chris

You can follow me on twitter at @chrisgluckpwp

New England tops the MLS PWP Team of the Week 6

Those living up near the northeast coast of America should be pretty chuffed with that result this weekend against Houston - an early season defensive-minded team came in to visit, and the Revolution re-educated Kinnear and his Dynamo on what a defensive-minded team really looks like.

I'll get to that in a minute, but before doing so, my link to what PWP is all about and then my recap on my PWP-Pick-List for last week and how the end results shook out.  In the future, look for the Pick-List in its own post.

Here's what I said in my "PWP-Pick-List" and then just beneath the outcome:

• Real Salt Lake at Philadelphia - Given the PWP pedigree of Salt Lake I'm not seeing Philadelphia win this game; as for the addition of Wenger and how he influences things - hard to say. In my view it is more likely Edu and/or Okugo lend more value than Wenger at this time. RSL wins...
• Philadelphia drew with Real Salt Lake on a late equalizer by Maurice Edu as both he AND Wenger added value.... noted.    (Miss)

• Colorado at Toronto - Tough one here but I am going with a win to Colorado. It's early yet and the Rapids remain a strong attacking team, even on the road (4 points on the road already). That coupled with numerous injuries in Toronto I see the Rapids taking 3 points against the depleted Reds.  (Hit)
• Colorado beat a depleted Toronto 1-nil...

• Chicago at Montreal - Truly an interesting game between Yallop's style and Klopas's style. I had originally considered this might end in a draw but after thinking a bit more about how weak the PWP Defense was in Chicago last year (under Klopas) and how weak the Montreal defense is looking this year (under Klopas) I think Chicago takes 3 points.
• Chicago and Amarikwa got a draw - if Quincey isn't on your Fantasy team he should be... (Miss)

• Houston at New England - That red card really hurt Houston and perhaps Brunner? gets the head nod to replace Horst. As for the Revolution - they have a solid defense but can they score? I think Houston can get at least one goal up north - I'm just not seeing the same for New England... Houston wins.
• New England scored two goals and Houston were shutout - is anyone surprised the New England defense did so well?  If you are looking for a 'team' Fantasy in defense you may consider the Revolution as a good place to focus; I know I've moved on from Houston...  That'll teach me to go against what I usually believe - defense will win you a game more often than attacking... (Miss)

• New York at DC United - A real early test for both teams. The defense for New York really hasn't been that good and DC are beginning to take shape. New York wins if Sekagya and Olave pair up as center backs with Eckersley returning to partner Miller as the fullbacks. If Kimura starts at right back I think DC United wins. Rumor has it Miller is injured - does that put Convey as the left fullback? If so don't forget the 4-1 loss to Vancouver with Convey playing left fullback...
• DC United took three points - Kimura started and New York lost - granted that loss isn't directly down to Kimura as Alexander blew his man to man coverage on the far post of that corner ball combination - but - Eckersley is stronger... (Hit)

• Seattle at FC Dallas - Another tough road match for the Sounders coming off a lucky tie against Portland last week. In all fairness the Timbers dominated large parts of that game and they exposed the weak center of Seattle. But FC Dallas also have a weak center - this could be another 3-3 draw but the edge goes to Seattle with Traore returning as center-back in place of a very weak defending Anibaba.
• Seattle beat Dallas - Traore played and Dempsey got a brace - and no I'm not going to say he got a 'due..'   (Hit)

• Chivas at Portland - Can I really opine anything different than 3 points to Portland? I'll put it this way: if they don't get three points against a very disorganized defense like Chivas there may be major issues in Soccer City USA.
• Chivas came from behind as open space came available late on... the defense continues to be an issue in Portland... (Miss)

• Vancouver at Los Angeles - I'm not sure anybody beats LA in LA this year. LA wins.
• LA took three points... the diamond continues to dazzle in Stub-hub with Keane scoring the lone goal. (Hit) 

• Columbus at San Jose - Challenging home game for San Jose and they need three points against a strong Eastern Conference team. For now, I don't see them doing that regardless of how many crosses they put into the box. Most likely a draw here...
• Columbus got goal 1 and San Jose, through Salinas to Wondolowski, got the draw... (Hit)

All told - in my maiden pix for week six - I was five out of nine... with three of my four losses coming via 2nd half equalizers by the teams I picked to lose - bollocks...

By the way - in case you missed it before here is a link to my PWP introduction...

Now for this weeks PWP - here's the Composite Index for Week 6 (only):

Observations...

No question here that New England were the top performing team this week. A 2-nil shutout (at home) should be a warning to the rest of the Eastern Conference that Jay Heaps has his team beginning to perform at its best.

What's really good to see about this team is how well the fullbacks integrated into the attack without forgetting that the first job is defense.  In a league where I think defense is considered a second-class citizen, the Revolution don't play that way... for me a welcomed site.  More to follow...

A late surprise for me was seeing how well Philadelphia performed this past weekend against a very strong Real Salt Lake - granted it was the 90+ minute mark before Edu equalized, but there's never a wrong time to score - there's only a wrong time to give up a goal.

The LA Galaxy got the expected result against Vancouver - the overall outputs from LA this game were just stunning... they offered up 617 passes; more than 500 of them completed with over 100 of those within the final third - I didn't watch the game but it is likely the Vancouver defense was pulled and pushed and poked to exhaustion.

That being said, the achilles heel for Vancouver last year was their defense - although they lost 1-nil they did a pretty good job all things considered - so the result didn't go in their favor but they should take some positives away from that game in how well they maintained the LA attack around that lone goal by Keene.

On the flip side - Houston started the season quite strong and it is likely Kinnear will get them firing on all cylinders again.

What was missing - at least in my view - was David Horst; that red card was double punishment for the Dynamo last week and his return should bring back a more solid back four.

With that said - and seeing how things continue to develop - I have begun my swap out my Dynamo defenders on my Fantasy team - I'll begin to rotate in a couple of New England players and maybe someone from DC United?  More to follow on that thought in my Cumulative PWP Index article later this week.

Moving on to my PWP Attacking team of the week...

Observations:

A surprise for some I'm sure - the winner this week is a team that drew 2-2 - while Seattle and Clint Dempsey traveled to FC Dallas and took three points... why?

For me it's down to the tenor of the overall attack - here's the differences (by the basic numbers) between those two teams this week - Philadelphia had the edge in possession (~55% to ~50%); their overall passing accuracy was ~76% compared to ~74%; while Seattle penetrated more often (23% to 20%) and put more shots on goal (46% vs 15%), the Union converted their two shots on goal into two goals scored (100% to 50% for Seattle)...

In a few words that means Seattle had more quantity in creating chances within the final third while the Union had more quality with their fewer chances... this has been the norm for many teams this past year-and-a-half within my PWP analysis - quality will beat quantity - not just in the statistics of the game, but in the regular run of play in the game.... it's always good to see statistics support what the eye sees.

Bottom line here though isn't the intent to minimze the success of Seattle - they took three points and Dempsey had another stellar game - but when looking at the comprehensive view of the game - more of the overall PWP parts of the game were executed better by Philadelphia than Seattle.

Other thoughts - Real Salt Lake performed in the top ten again as did FC Dallas and LA Galaxy - Portland edged its way into the 7th position this week and with that draw to Chivas it's a double-edged sword for Porter - the Timbers continue to improve in the overall attack - but they also continue to lack focus for a full 90+ minutes in defense.

How long before we see the Timbers begin to shake the trees to see what falls out for a defensive addition in the summer transfer window - perhaps another double-edged sword was the inclusion of Michael Harrington into the USMNT training scheme - has that reward created an issue for Harrington?

Both he and Kah were directly accountable for that poor man-marking in the box against Chivas; a mistake for Harrington that compounds his schoolboy mistake on closing down Neagle last week, which gave Neagle the room to turn and put in that devastating cross that saw Dempsey bring Seattle within one goal a week ago.

The PWP Attacking Player of the Week was...

Observations:

It's six weeks in and the top Attacking PWP Player of the week is another midfielder - go figure. Two years ago I opined that the most influential players in attack should come from the midfield, given their increased touches on the ball and their overall vision of the game from the center of the pitch.

Duly noted - Maurice Edu got a late equalizer and the Union fought back for a hard won draw against (IMO) the best team in MLS.

Evidence of Maurice's two way influence is above - enough said - this midfield acquisition continues to help the Union etch their place as a top team in the Eastern Conference, and grabbing a late point helps them sustain that Playoff vision.

On to the Defending Team of the Week... my favorite part of this game.

Observations:

I'll offer the Index a bit later; for now here's how New England's opponent (Houston) performed in the six steps of my PWP Index process...

Note the final three steps in the overall attack mounted by Houston - only 13% of their overall penetration generated a shot taken, and none of those shots were on goal. Consequently, none of those shots got past Shuttleworth--pretty stingy if you ask me. Their passing accuracy was below average, but with an average amount of possession.

If you had to paint a picture of a team that defends across the entire pitch, it's results like these that you want to see from your opponent's attack (i.e how well your team defense performs in controlling the opponent's attack).

Here's the overall Defending PWP Index for all 19 teams...

Observations:

Consistency begins to show for many teams this year - a welcome surprise for Olsen is that his team is beginning to shut down their opponents. D.C. United comes in 4th place this week against a very strong New York Red Bulls attacking side (at least they were last year).

Colorado traveled to Toronto and did well--aye the Reds had some injuries, but every team this year will experience players who get injured or miss a game through disciplinary reasons. Toronto got edged out by an improving Colorado.

On the tail end was FC Dallas, an unusual spot for them this year. The own goal, as well as the brace by Dempsey, speaks volumes - yet as we saw on the Attacking side of PWP, Seattle were also pretty strong across the entire pitch -- the center of FC Dallas defense remains and issue and Keel did not add value in pairing up with Hedges.

Now for my PWP Defending Player of the Week...

Observations:

I like fullbacks who add to the attack, but I love fullbacks who defend first - there's a reason these guys are in defense; it's to stop the opponent first.

Overall, Alston did a superb job in playing his role; he not only scored, but he was also five for five in throw-ins within the final third - you'd be surprised - but at least four teams this week couldn't complete over 70% of their throw-ins within their attacking third... never take a throw-in for granted.

Another storyline here is that Alston continues to work through very difficult health issues from the past - showing concentration and doing his job to support his team translates to strong character. In a country where I think good fullbacks are not the norm, it is good to see Kevin have a great game!

In closing...

Next up will be my PWP Pick-List for Week 7 followed by my PWP Cumulative Indices and associated thoughts. For now know that the top team in each conference is not the top team in my overall PWP Cumulative Index - lest we forget not everyone has played six games yet.

All the best, Chris

You can follow all my PWP analysis through twitter: @chrisgluckpwp

Real Salt Lake: Perennial Model Buster?

If you take a look back at 2013's expected goal differentials, probably the biggest outlier was MLS Cup runner up Real Salt Lake. Expected to score 0.08 fewer goals per game than its opponents, RSL actually scored 0.47 more goals than its opponents. That translates to a discrepancy of about 19 unexplained goals for the whole season. This year, RSL finds itself second in the Western Conference with a goal differential of a massive 0.80. However, like last year, the expected goal differential is lagging irritatingly behind at --0.77. There are two extreme explanations for RSL's discrepancy in observed versus expected performance, and while the truth probably lies in the middle, I think it's valuable to start the discussion at the extremes and move in from there.

It could be that RSL plays a style and has the personnel to fool my expected goal differential statistic. Or, it could be that RSL is one lucky son of a bitch. Or XI lucky sons of bitches. Whatever.

Here are some ways that a team could fool expected goal differential:

1. It could have the best fucking goalkeeper in the league.
2. It could have players that simply finish better than the league average clip in each defined shot type.
3. It could have defenders that make shots harder than they appear to be in each defined shot type--perhaps by forcing attackers onto their weak feet, or punching attackers in the balls whilst winding up.
4. That's about it.

We know are pretty sure that RSL does indeed have the best goalkeeper in the league, and Will and I estimated Nick Rimando's value at anywhere between about six and eight goals above average* during the 2013 season. That makes up a sizable chunk of the discrepancy, but still leaves at least half unaccounted for.

The finishing  ability conversation is still a controversial one, but that's where we're likely to see the rest of the difference. RSL scored 56 goals (off their own bodies rather than those of their opponents), but were only expected to score about 44. That 12-goal difference can be conveniently explained by their five top scorers--Alvaro Saborio, Javier Morales, Ned Grabavoy, Olmes Garcia, and Robbie Findley--who scored 36 goals between them while taking shots valued at 25.8 goals. (see: Individual Expected Goals, and yes it's biased to look at just the top five goal scorers, but read on.)

Here's the catch, though. Using the sample of 28 players that recorded at least 50 shots last season and at least 5 shots this season, the correlation coefficient for the goals above expectation statistic is --0.43. It's negative. Basically, players that were good last year have been bad this year, and players that were bad last year have been good this year. That comes with some caveats--and if the correlation stays negative then that is a topic fit for another whole series of posts--but for our purposes here it suggests that finishing isn't stable, and thus finishing isn't really a reliable skill. The fact that RSL players have finished well for the last 14 months means very little for how they will finish in the future.

Since I said there was a third way to fool expected goal differential--defense. I should point out that once we account for Rimando, RSL's defense allowed about as many goals as expected. Thus the primary culprits of RSL's ability to outperform expected goal differential have been Nick Rimando and its top five scorers. So now we can move on to the explanation on the other extreme, luck.

RSL has been largely lucky, using the following definition of lucky: Scoring goals they can't hope to score again. A common argument I might expect is that no team could be this "lucky" for this long. If you're a baseball fan, I urge you to read my piece on Matt Cain, but if not, here's the point. 19 teams have played soccer in MLS the past two seasons. The probability that at least one of them gets lucky for 1.2 seasons worth of games is actually quite high. RSL very well may be that team--on offense, anyway.

Unless RSL's top scorers are all the outliers--which is not impossible, but unlikely--then RSL is likely in for a rude awakening, and a dogfight for a playoff spot.

*Will's GSAR statistic is actually Goals Saved Above Replacement, so I had to calibrate.

ASA Podcast XLIII: The one where Matty Makes the Call

Hey everyone, here is our latest terrible exhilarating podcast for your listening pleasure. The delay this week in posting was largely due to us switching to 'Mixcloud' for the conceivable hosting future as we move way from our current site and into a domain of our own. Admittedly, we ate up a good 15 minutes in the start of the podcast talking about the Seattle-Portland match, but you saw that coming...right? The rest of the podcast is also solid, and perhaps more importantly, less Cascadia-specific, so don't give up on it just because of that segment! [mixcloud http://www.mixcloud.com/hkcrow/asa-podcast-xliii-the-one-where-matty-gives-the-call/ width=660 height=180 /]

Possession with Purpose: My MLS thoughts and the Indices through Week 5

An editorial comment before starting: In case you missed it, there is no flash and dash to my headlines for Possession with Purpose. My intent here is not to create a misconception about what the Indices and corresponding statistics show. Statistics, when effective, are not based upon emotion; they have value because they lack emotion. The trick has always been, from a management standpoint, to balance the value of metrics with the value of knowledge in how the game of soccer is played.

With that said there are a few changes (as expected after just five weeks) to these Indices - I'll dig into those, but first as always, here's a link to my original article on American Soccer Analysis in case you aren't familiar with my methodology.

Observations:

It's still early so teams may move around quite a bit. Consider how last year took shape: it wasn't until the 15-17 week time-frame where teams settled in, and even then we saw FC Dallas take a marked nose-dive in PWP.

Put another way; by Week 17, last year, eight of the ten teams to make the MLS Playoffs were in the top ten and pretty much stayed there the rest of the way. By 2013 season's end this Index had correctly identified nine of the top ten teams with only Houston as the outlier at 12th.

The grist between Week 4 and Week 5...

• The Capt. Obvious here is FC Dallas have moved up top while Columbus, who lost 2-nil to Toronto have slid back to 2nd.
• As for the bottom dwellers (somebody has gotta be there)... San Jose, Chivas and New England - more to follow there when digging into the Attacking and Defending PWP Indices.
• Houston was off to a good start this season (4th in PWP last week) but they've dropped to 10th best this week. Much of that had to do with a red card to center-back David Horst and the three goals scored by Dallas less than 15 minutes after his exit.
• This drop is one of those early season moves that might be expected with such a low sample size - by Week 12 or so a one-off game like this for a team might not create such a large impact in the Index rating.
• Real Salt Lake completely hammered Toronto two weeks ago - yet this week, a big surprise for me, Toronto turned around and beat Columbus, in Columbus. That great result for Toronto saw them move up from 17th to 12th.
• Other movers include Ben Olsen's squad. DC United was dead last after four weeks and are now tucked in at 12th, behind Portland.
• Another big mover this week was New England, albeit the wrong way, who moved from 12th best to 17th. More to follow on the Revolution a bit further down...

What to Look for Next Weekend...

As the year progresses I will begin to offer up a few snippets for your consideration on the upcoming games while leveraging the PWP Indices.

I'm not sure if you want to call these prognostications or not - that's up to you - but in looking at the Indices and understanding all the analysis behind how they are created here's my thoughts for this weekend.

I call it my (PWP-Pick-List): I have no idea how this will play out so we can all watch together...

• Real Salt Lake at Philadelphia - Given the PWP pedigree of Salt Lake I'm not seeing Philadelphia win this game; as for the addition of Wenger and how he influences things - hard to say. In my view it is more likely Edu and/or Okugo lend more value than Wenger at this time. RSL wins...
• Colorado at Toronto - Tough one here but I am going with a win to Colorado. It's early yet and the Rapids remain a strong attacking team, even on the road (4 points on the road already). That coupled with numerous injuries in Toronto I see the Rapids taking 3 points against the depleted Reds.
• Chicago at Montreal - Truly an interesting game between Yallop's style and Klopas's style. I had originally considered this might end in a draw but after thinking a bit more about how weak the PWP Defense was in Chicago last year (under Klopas) and how weak the Montreal defense is looking this year (under Klopas) I think Chicago takes 3 points.
• Houston at New England - That red card really hurt Houston and perhaps Brunner? gets the head nod to replace Horst. As for the Revolution - they have a solid defense but can they score? I think Houston can get at least one goal up north - I'm just not seeing the same for New England... Houston wins.
• New York at DC United - A real early test for both teams. The defense for New York really hasn't been that good and DC are beginning to take shape. New York wins if Sekagya and Olave pair up as center backs with Eckersley returning to partner Miller as the fullbacks. If Kimura starts at right back I think DC United wins. Rumor has it Miller is injured - does that put Convey as the left fullback? If so don't forget the 4-1 loss to Vancouver with Convey playing left fullback...
• Seattle at FC Dallas - Another tough road match for the Sounders coming off a lucky tie against Portland last week. In all fairness the Timbers dominated large parts of that game and they exposed the weak center of Seattle. But FC Dallas also have a weak center - this could be another 3-3 draw but the edge goes to Seattle with Traore returning as center-back in place of a very weak defending Anibaba.
• Chivas at Portland - Can I really opine anything different than 3 points to Portland? I'll put it this way: if they don't get three points against a very disorganized defense like Chivas there may be major issues in Soccer City USA.
• Vancouver at Los Angeles - I'm not sure anybody beats LA in LA this year. LA wins.
• Columbus at San Jose - Challenging home game for San Jose and they need three points against a strong Eastern Conference team. For now, I don't see them doing that regardless of how many crosses they put into the box. Most likely a draw here...

I wouldn't bet the house on any of these offerings - I'd suggest they are no more or less valuable than what others following MLS soccer might consider.

For the record though - after Week 15 completes I will begin to keep official track of my prognostications leveraging the PWP Indices.

Moving on to my PWP Attacking Index...

Observations:

Here's where it gets interesting. Note that Philadelphia, New York and Chicago Fire are fairly high up in the rankings while Toronto and Sporting KC are a bit lower.

This is where you can get an idea on what teams tend to focus a wee bit more in attack and what teams might not.

So for example, when looking at New England, they have had just one home game so far this year. They've been shutout by Vancouver and in three of their four road matches they didn't score a goal.

The only team they have beaten this year is San Jose, a current bottom dweller for most of the first five weeks. It's that overall Index rating that helps me shape my pick that Houston will beat New England given their current performances.

As for New York, they have four draws so far this year after getting hammered at home by Vancouver. Their attack has gotten better with Peguy Luyindula and his efforts working with Steele and Sam were pretty good in Montreal. All that happened without Henry, Cahill or McCarty starting (albeit McCarty did come on as a sub later on). Don't forget Luyindula missed that PK as well...

Chicago... This team does not resemble the attack pattern of old Chicago that Yallop left behind and abandoned in San Jose. There is more grist on the ground this year and if the defense gets better they should be pretty good.

My PWP Defending Index...

Observations:

The LA Galaxy have moved into the top spot in place of Columbus while Houston took a huge nose dive with the red card to Horst.

Four goals against (one being an own goal) to FC Dallas will significantly influence this Index that early in the season... note Houston went from having the second most effective defense to the 12th most effective defense.

Creeping up further this week was Sporting KC. Last year they were tops for the 34 game regular season and this week they climbed from 5th up to 2nd with that game against Real Salt Lake. It's quite an achievement for Sporting to get a clean sheet against that wicked-good Diamond 4-4-2.

So how about New England? Two years ago their defense was solid and their attack was shaky; have they digressed? Hard to say, their back-end looks good (ooh err missus) but their front end leaves a wee bit to be desired...

Vancouver continues to stay in the top 10 for Defending PWP. Last year they were horrid in defense and every week they stay in the top ten is every reason to consider betting they will make the playoffs.

Last but not least Toronto are sitting in 7th place in Defending PWP. Defense will win you championships. The rebuild, though looking more geared to improve the attack, has had a strong influence on the defensive side of the pitch.

As noted earlier it appears they have a number of injuries --- to long to list --- so here's a link in case you are interested.

In closing...

Clint Dempsey had a great 20+ minutes for Seattle this past weekend and it looks as if Schmid may have found the right area for him to operate in. That's bad news for the Western Conference as a whole and in particular for Vancouver and Portland as they also vie against the Sounders for the Cascadia Cup.

How Dempsey settles in will be interesting especially if Kenny Cooper returns to his goal scoring days while in New York. The system might be a wee bit different but Cooper does well when there are others around him who can score and create good space by their mere presence on the pitch; Dempsey does that like Henry does that for New York.

All else considered the only teams I really haven't talked about that much about are Montreal and Chivas.

I have no idea how Chivas will do this year. Their match this weekend in Portland is an early statement match for both teams. If Chivas takes it on the chin it is likely they retain the doormat award in the West again this year.

As for Montreal, I'm not a fan of Klopas (not because I don't like him, I don't know him) but I think the poor defense in Chicago will translate to Montreal. It's hard to say though now that they have McInerney as well as Di Viao...

Five games in, Montreal are 5th worst in Defending PWP and 6th worst in Attacking PWP. Bottom line here is they aren't good on either side of the ball, yet.

If I had an early season prognostication it would be Montreal will be the doormats of the Eastern Conference unless Jack McInerney brings some magic with him.

All the best, Chris You can follow me on twitter here @ChrisGluckPWP.

How it Happened: Week Five

Another great week of MLS games went down this past weekend. Even though I didn't have the pleasure of watching all 90 minutes of Cascadia bliss from Portland (I do my best to mix up which teams I watch for this post, and this wasn't a Seattle or Portland week), there were still plenty of solid rivalry matches to go around. Without further ado, here's how it happened for six teams last weekend:

Houston Dynamo 1 - 4 FC Dallas

Stat that told the story for Houston: Ricardo Salazar's heat map

If you don't recognize Ricardo Salazar's name from the Houston roster, you aren't alone. He was the referee for this one, and while I refuse to rip on officials because they have a really difficult job, it's impossible to deny the influence he had on this game (image above shows all the fouls called - three of which turned directly into goals). I actually don't think Salazar did a terrible job given the circumstances: this game was a true rivalry match where both teams came out and played super physically from the opening whistle. But Houston and Dallas were neck-and-neck until the red card was doled out to David Horst, and the Dynamo almost immediately capitulated once they went down a man. Sure, the red card was a debatable decision, but Houston has to show better composure after going down a man.

Stat that told the story for Dallas: 11 set pieces taken by Mauro Diaz and Michel

It would be easy to pick a stat from the last half hour of this one, when Houston had basically given up and the Dallas midfield had full control of the park. But what's arguably more impressive from this one was how Dallas was still in this game for the first hour, despite being on the road to a tough opponent in the Dynamo. Truthfully, FCD hadn't been playing particularly well; Houston was successful in limiting space for Diaz and they had control of the midfield. But even playing mediocre, Dallas had created a number of really good chances and a goal, all from set pieces. Both Diaz and Michel are wizards over a dead ball, and any set piece in the attacking half is a chance waiting to happen for the Hoops.

Sporting KC 0 - 0 Real Salt Lake

Stat that told the story for Kansas City: 16 key passes

For me, this stat/image is more about where the key passes took place than how many of them there were. KC and RSL have a bit of a history now, and the teams definitely know what to expect when they faceoff. I thought Sporting did a really good job of a couple things: (1) pressing RSL into turnovers and (2) attacking the Salt Lake diamond midfield. I'll talk more about #1 below, so here's my take on KC's attack. They created most of their shots or chances by either playing wide around the narrow midfield or by bypassing it entirely and going over the top. While it didn't result in any goals for Sporting, that was more of a function of RSL's great goalkeeping and KC's mediocre finishing. Overall, I liked the gameplan of Peter Vermes this weekend.

Stat that told the story for Salt Lake: 257/282 (91.1%) of completed passes were in the first two thirds of the field

Real Salt Lake is a possession team, and everyone knows it. They try to pass all over the field, and when they're at their best they control the ball into and around the penalty area before getting chances. In this one, Kansas City really let them have it with their high-pressing defense. RSL couldn't find much space anywhere in the middle third of the field, let alone the attacking third, leading Salt Lake to play mostly in their own half. This was particularly the case early in the game: in the games first 40 minutes, 76/113 (67%) of RSL's completed passes were in the defensive half of the field. It was a bit surprising that a veteran team like RSL didn't seem prepared for this one, but given the makeshift lineup Jeff Cassar fielded, a scoreless draw has to be seen as a point gained rather than two lost in Utah.

Chivas USA 0 - 3 LA Galaxy

Stat that told the story for LA: 131 completed passes in the center of the field by midfielders

Bruce Arena did something that was pretty unexpected this Sunday, deploying a diamond midfield of four nominally central midfielders: Juninho, Stefan Ishizaki, Marcelo Sarvas and Baggio Husidic. The move was a clear message that despite their best attempts, the Galaxy had been unable thus far to find any decent wide play in the midfield opposite Landon Donovan. Instead of trying yet another option out there, LA played their four best overall midfielders in a diamond, and instructed them to figure it out as they went. As the scoreline suggests, this was hugely successful as the Galaxy just overran Chivas in the midfield time and again. The starting midfield completed 131 passes in the center of the field compared to the Goats' midfield's 79, and that's to say nothing of the 2 goals on 8 shots that the midfielders also added. As I'll note in the next paragraph, Chivas' midfield is hardly a force to be reckoned with, but early signs on the diamond midfield are strictly positive.

Stat that told the story for Chivas: 1 weird starting lineup

OK, this isn't a stat, but it's hard to find anything in particular to focus on when most of the game was Chivas getting run over. There were some decent attacking combinations when the Goats were able to possess the ball and get forward, but those times were few and far between. From looking at the team that Wilmer Cabrera put on the field, it's hard to imagine a much better result. I know the general narrative surrounding Chivas is that the club is much improved since Cabrera's come onboard, but this is still a weirdly constructed roster. Trying to fit this team of very few fullbacks and a ton of attack-minded midfielders into a 4-4-2 is quite a task, which is why this week's lineup looked so weird. The strange fits included featuring midfielder Eric Avila and centerback Andrew Jean-Baptiste at fullback, and Agustin Pelletieri* and mostly attack-minded Carlos Alvarez in central midfield.

*I think Pelletieri is supposed to be more of a holding midfielder, but all I've seen of him is an early red card vs. Vancouver and getting run over by LA. Too early to pass judgment, but he wasn't impressive this weekend.

Agree with my assessments? Think I’m an idiot? I always appreciate feedback. @MLSAtheist

MLS Possession with Purpose: The best and worst of Week 5

And so it goes; another week completed where you got the heart-pounding excitement from the Cascadia Cup clash, a defensive struggle from two of the best teams in MLS, and lopsided victories for two others. Before digging in, a couple of links to consider: if you missed the match between Portland and Seattle here are two articles you may want to read if the opportunity presents itself. This one was offered up by MLS, and then here's mine offered up on my home site here in Portland with the Columbian Newspaper.

Also, if PWP is new for you there may be value in reading what that's about through this link, an introduction to PWP and some explanations in case this approach is new to you.

With that out of the way it's time for some grist... who was the most effective and efficient team in my PWP Composite Index this week, and who was the worst?

To set the table here's my standard diagram for Week 5 only. Later this week I will publish the Cumulative Index - when I do I'll pop that link here.

Observations:

There were two games this past weekend with lopsided scores (3-nil LA over Chivas) and (4-1 FC Dallas over Houston).

Up until the completion of the LA Galaxy 3-nil thrashing of Chivas USA, it looked like FC Dallas would be top of the heap for Week 5 - and rightly so given they put 3 past Houston plus they got the Orange team to give them an own goal as well.

But as you can see, LA were tops this week; more later on why, and it may surprise you.

The tough part about the FC Dallas game, for Houston, was the straight red and sending off of David Horst on what the Referee considered was a rash foul down Houston's right sideline. I'm not so sure about that but as we have seen so far this year, the Referee's are stamping their authority with no reservation whatsoever.

Spilt milk and, as it goes. Dallas scored three goals within 15 minutes of that Red Card to take three points. If you run a team defense in Fantasy football and have Houston in that role you got hosed - I do and I got hosed in the back-four; still got 52 points though!

But back to the LA Galaxy match on Sunday

If anyone wasn't sure about how Landon Donovan could operate in a Diamond 4-4-2, be advised that he can - he has - and he will; when surrounded by other strong players, he's tough to stop.

For me, though, this game wasn't about just scoring goals. It was also about defense, and it's that defensive mindset that put LA at the overall top this week - clean sheets matter!

As for the bottom side of the Index...

If it's LA shutting down Chivas that garners the top offensive spot, then it's reasonable the flip side is the complete lack of structure and focus from Chivas that sees them at the bottom.

Carlos Bocanegra has great mental awareness, but he can't stop an aggressive Galaxy attack on his own - and in the short glimpses I had of their video it certainly looked to me like Baptiste and others were simply outmatched.

As for Houston - enuf said - the Red Card to Horst directly influenced the outcome of that game.

As for the middle of the middle of the pack... if you read my recommendations above about the Timbers-Sounders match, you know that game was all about possession with the intent to penetrate. There was absolutely no possession, that I saw, where the intent was to possess just for the sake of controlling possession.

There is no love lost between those two teams, and it seems every time they meet both just simply want to smash each other senseless. It makes for great entertainment, but there are times in my book where negative football has value, and securing three points (like it or not) is a time where negative football has value.

So on to the PWP Attacking Index; here's how they lined up head to head...

Observations:

For the first time this year the magical 3.00 barrier was broken in the attacking index. It comes on the heels of the USMNT also breaking the 3.00 barrier in the first half against Mexico. If you missed my thoughts on that game, you can review them here.

Onwards and upwards - for the first time this year Portland broke the top-five barrier in team attack for a given week, getting two stunners from Diego Chara plus another couple from the Argentina contingent of Diego Valeri and Maxi Urruti.

Not to be outdone was the final 20-minute performance of Clint Dempsey - aye - he got a goal early on, but for much of the game his influence and presence was pretty much unnoticed. Indeed, the chalkboard tells us that between about the 40-minute mark and the 70-minute mark, he had just 9 touches of any sort with no shots or key passes. It wasn't until the 70-minute mark where he started to directly influence and impact the game. After that point, Dempsey had no fewer than 18 touches in the run of play with one key pass, three shots on target, and a goal.

I'm all for highlighting his hat trick in that game, but he simply wasn't solid through the full 90+ minutes, and his team barely eked out a draw.

Understanding that and seeing the red-card tainted blowout of Houston by FC Dallas my PWP Attacking Player of Week 5 was...

Observations:

That may be a surprise to some on two fronts. One - Dempsey got a Hat Trick. And Two - what about Watson or Diaz?

Well, as already noted, Dempsey simply didn't play well for a full 90+ minutes and his presence and influence did not prevent Portland from having their best attacking performance of the year.

In addition, it's likely Seattle drops three points if Ben Zemanski doesn't do what he did in the box, and I'm simply not in favor of seeing someone getting an Attacking Player of the Week award when his team loses or draws. 3 points is the objective in this game - it's not all about just scoring goals.

And two - while Diaz is the spark that lights the Dallas attack this year and Watson donated a brace of goals this weekend, I feel and think Michel had more overall responsibility on the pitch; therefore - given his vast number of touches on both sides of the ball I give him the award.

And in case you missed it, I don't view this weekly award as going to someone who just lights up the front end without also considering how well they supported the back end.

Time now for Defending PWP Team of the week, where the LA Galaxy really made it count

Observations:

It was a close call between LA and Sporting KC this week when it came down to it; any team who can get a clean sheet against Real Salt Lake has really done their job.

But... alas... the Top PWP Defending team was LA. Why? Well it really came down to how poorly Chivas USA performed against LA, and not how poorly Real Salt Lake performed against Sporting; remember - this Weekly Index does not get influenced by previous performances on a week to week basis only the Cumulative Index does.

When checking out my Cumulative Index later this week, you may see a change in who the top defending team is overall - for now though - this is just Week 5.

In looking at the player statistics I had considered awarding the PWP Defender of Week 5 to Landon Donovan, and here's why: he had three key passes, five recoveries and an 85% passing accuracy with 2 assists. But the more compelling case fell to Juninho, given his combined efforts (like Michel) playing on both sides of the ball.

Here's the Diagram offering up his team effort on Sunday...

In closing

Week 5 saw some individual players step up and some team performances improve as compared to previous weeks. It's a long season, and it's likely the Cumulative Index will continue to take shape - especially after the (unexpected) Toronto victory over Columbus in Ohio.

You may have thought that game flew under the radar, but it hasn't, and Toronto will look the better for it in my Cumulative Index... all is not lost when a team gets a big victory without getting the headlines for that week.

If curious - here's a link to my Weekly PWP analysis on the Red Bulls of New York.

All for now,

Chris

USMNT - My thoughts after 2-2 Draw with Mexico

If you're like me you were pretty impressed with the first half Wednesday evening as Jurgen Klinsmann deployed a Diamond 4-4-2 in the truest sense - narrow and focused down the middle with the intent to manage the wings by channeling things to the middle. It worked really well in the first half. To give you a comparison on how well it went, here's a table on their Possession with Purpose (six steps in Attack) in the first half compared to that of the second half with the average for MLS Teams in 2013.

But before offering the here's a link to what PWP is all about in case you've missed it before.

Team	Possession Percentage	Passing Accuracy Percentage	Penetration Percentage	Creation of Shots Taken based upon Penetration Percentage	Shots on Goal compared to Shots Taken Percentage	Goals Scored compared to Shots on Goal Percentage
USMNT 1st Half	59%	85%	13%	14%	80%	50%
USMNT 2nd Half	41%	80%	18%	25%	14%	0%
Mexico 1st Half	41%	75%	21%	5%	0%	0%
Mexico 2nd Half	59%	80%	23%	35%	44%	25%
MLS 2013 Average for Comparison	50%	76%	22%	20%	34%	30%

Observations:

I won't offer up anything new here that I didn't already offer on twitter during the match but in case you missed some of those streaming thoughts here they are without limiting my words to the format of twitter.

Bradley and Beckerman needed to be the fulcrum between the defending side of the pitch and the attacking side of the pitch if that Diamond 4-4-2 is to be successful - I'd offer that most would agree they were (at least in the first half).

In considering I had never seen Michael Parkhurst in a left fullback position I opined that the way this team lined up some good chances would come down the right side with Beltran running overlaps or supporting Zusi in deep penetration on the wings.

I'd offer that was also the case in the first half - nothing better as an example than the goal Wondolowski had working from the Zusi cross that Bradley flicked on for Wondolowski to poke home.

What was surprising to me (a very welcome surprise) was how effective Michael Parkhurst was in the first half working the left side with his own mix of penetration combined with Davis --- I really did enjoy seeing that Wednesday evening and support like that from Michael reinforces his ball handlling skills - and - In my view makes him a very credible selection to start at Centerback along with Matt Besler.

If you didn't already know Michael Parkhurst was my PWP Defender of the Week #1 and here's that article supporting that analysis.

I'm not sure why I've never rated Omar Gonzalez highly but I don't - maybe it's his defensive positioning that makes me nervous but I'm a defensive minded guy in football and while there are good points in having a CB who can attack the box on set-pieces my view is that they are first and foremost on the pitch to (STOP) the opponent from scoring - all else is a bonus after that.

As for the goals against in the second half - other pundits have already offered up the Capt. Obvious here that Gonzalez was directly accountable for both goals scored by Mexico - so I ask (rhetorically) did he really add value to this squad in that game in his primary role and if not - who's better?

That's not a question for me to answer but I think it is a question Jurgen Klinsmann needs to ask himself and his new staff...

Like many things in life, I'm not particularly fond of folks who offer up a problem (be it real or perceived) without also coming up with a solution/recommendation to that problem.  So with that here are my options knowing that some players are simply not going to get selected that haven't already played under Jurgen recently.

Goodson - Not sure here either - I personally have not seen him enough to offer a view that (in my view) has merit - he does well for San Jose but he didn't get particularly good minutes overseas with what I feel and think is a top rated club.  More information needed.

Parkhurst - I have seen him probably as little as I have seen Goodsen but in those few short games (and his impressive showing to me on Wednesday evening) it is clear he has the pace to cope with the wings and also has the passing accuracy and understanding of a broader role in positional play to make an very effective CB (starting CB) provided he can handle the more physical side of the game when teams include a more traditional #9 who plays more with his back to goal than trying to run on to through balls.

Cameron - His time overseas is seeing the game as a right back for Stoke - is that mix the right mix to settle in alongside Besler - and how is that chemistry going to take shape?  He has positional awareness of how positional play works down the wings so that adds great value - just like that in seeing Parkhurst play the left side Wednesday evening.

For me Parkhurst is a first option to pair with Besler but my view is limited - call it a gut instinct - but do folks really expect a CB who has played as long as Gonzalez to say in passing he needs to be more dominant in his role as a CB in protecting the box?  Wow - I hope not.  That is something a CB should KNOW and understand from day 1...  oh my...

Perhaps a more compelling question is how long has this weakness (lack of being switched-on to the true purpose of a CB) been or not been recognized by the USMNT staff?

And then to throw a teammate under the bus - bollocks - it just reinforces my own views that Gonzalez is not the right choice to represent the USMNT as a starting CB in the World Cup.

A winning World Cup team must be linked in and switched-on to roles and responsibilities for 90+ minutes for at least 3 games in 8 days??? in order to advance - and then it just gets tougher and tougher... that speaks to having resilience in a squad and throwing a teammate under the bus is not an example of resilience - it represents a shirking of responsibility.

As for Green - as noted in my finishing tweets for the match - in my view Green is still green - that was worthy and notable of Klinsmann to put him in as a way to begin his trail of caps - but as an option going forward now?  Unless his attitude is so positive and infectious for others I just don't see him having any role of substance this World Cup - the hype is what it is - hype...

Tough question here for those who've been around footy for some time.  If a real stud, do you really think Green would miss an opportunity to play for Germany in a World Cup or European Championship in the very near term?

The pedigree with the German side is simply to strong to even think for a second that (if a starter there) he would ditch that opportunity to be a starter here).  Like it or not the USMNT's progress has not made it that far in being that good...  if you think they have your emotions are overwhelming your senses.  Bringing Green into the side is more about 2018 than 2014; and for that I tip my hat to Klinsmann...

In closing...

A welcome sight to see the USMNT open in a diamond 4-4-2 and the pieces to that puzzle looked pretty good when considering who started and who didn't.  I would offer that style of play speaks to some of the stronger styles we see in MLS - is that the intent of Klinsmann - to stamp a particular style of play that suits the stronger and more possession oriented sides in the MLS who are also known for closing down and giving the opponent very little space and time to work with?

I think so - and yes - width is critical to manage when working a narrow approach and the right pieces need to be there to do that.  Evidence of that was very clear Wednesday evening - as the second half opened and the subs began to rotate for the USMNT the Mexican side went from offering up just 8 crosses in the first half to a total of 23 crosses for the second half.

Clearly the change in players on both sides, to include complacency and fatigue of the USMNT, directly impacted and influenced the team attacking style of Mexico.

In looking towards the final selection Klinsmann has some issues to wrestle with - how does he balance the chemistry of the "MLS Players" playing together versus those guys who play abroad - how does Altidore fit into a Diamond 4-4-2? 

He's been laboring with Sunderland this year and I'm not familiar enough with that team to know what system they operate - but given their position in the League Table it would appear they are not very good in scoring goals - which for me tends to indicate their midfield isn't that strong.  To paraphrase Harrison on this one - Jozy doesn't have the right complimentary pieces to go with his skill set...

And with a trend of American players returning stateside might we see Jozy make a transfer move similar to Bradley and Dempsey this summer?  Hard to say now but if the USMNT chemistry continues to mature, using a majority of players from MLS, it just might mean the most effective move for him is a return to America.

Before signing off I have one final postulate for consideration.  In seeing how the game went Wednesday evening - has anyone considered that - given it was a friendly - the intent of the second half might have also included studying how Mexico may adjust, in pitch activity, to the Diamond 4-4-2, in order for Klinsmann to gather data on how other opponents might adjust (real time) in the World Cup?

This also provides Klinsmann some real data to evaluate on ways he might counter the opponents counter...  I wouldn't put it past him - especially since the game wasn't a real win or lose game of consequence...

That's all for me for now... More to follow on twitter as I join the crowd at Providence Park for the Cascadia clash between Seattle and Portland.

Montreal and Philadelphia Swap Young Strikers

Okay, I'm sure by now that, given you follow our site, you've also probably been made aware of the fact that the Philadelphia Union (an underrated team in my opinion) traded their young 20-year old striker Jack McInerney to the Montreal Impact for their young 22-year old striker Andrew Wenger. The trade has a very Matt Garza for Delmon Young feel to it, leaving me with an odd taste in my mouth. Are the Montreal Impact selling low on Andrew Wenger? It's, at the very least, presumable that they know something that we don't about him and his nature. The question becomes, then, is that assessment accurate? Obviously the idea of a poacher is one that is met with a bit of contention,  in the sense of how do you measure being in the "right place at the right time" for an individual? However assessing the 86 shots taken by 'JackMac' from the 2013 season, we can know that no fewer than 57 of them came from inside the 18 yard box, courtesy of digging around on the MLS Chalkboards. It's obvious that he's a player that can get the ball in advantageous locations. Already on the season he's put together 12 shots and 11 of them have come inside the 18-yard box with 6 coming directly in front of goal. He's been appropriately tagged on twitter as a "fox in the box"---hold the sexual innuendos---and I think the term poacher probably comes naturally with that association. Unfortunately, that term may harbor and imply the idea that he's more lucky than good. I'm not sure I entirely buy that approach.

Meanwhile with everyone's attention directly focused on McInerney--audaciously stamped as 'The American Chicharito'--having already being called in the USMNT Camp for training during the Gold Cup, people are forgetting about Wenger and his potential that once made him a #1 overall MLS draft pick. Back in 2012, Wenger was painted as a potent and rising talent in MLS, named to MLSSoccer.com's 24 under 24 roster, coming in 7th overall. Just one year later McInerney jumped onto the list himself, rocketing to 4th overall, while Wenger was left off. The perpetual "what have you done for me lately?" seemed to come out in these rankings.

Wenger--despite all his talent--has run into a slew of various injury-related setbacks the last two seasons; it's so much failing to perform. The talent is still there, and I fully expect John Hackworth to tinker in an effort to get as much out of him as possible. The easy narrative here might just be the returning home to "revitalize his career" or something like that. Instead I think Philadelphia possibly got an undervalued piece in this move.

Looking at the last two years and a total of 31 shots Wenger has taken, 24 of those came from inside the 18-yard box, a higher percentage than that of JacMac. With that you can see above with xGpSH (expected goals per shot) that Wenger's average shot has been more likely to become a goal than that of his counterpart. Now, understand that this all comes with the requisite small sample sizes admission. Wenger has played less than half the amount of time as McInerney and has less than half the amount of shots. However, estimations based upon their current performances with creating shots has them near the same level as that of Eddie Johnson, Will Bruin and Chris Rolfe in years past.

Creating shots isn't everything. Creating shots in important positions is something. As we attempt to analyze the value of certain events on the pitch and how certain players are responsible for those events, we'll see some things and maybe understand how to assess performances. It's easy to overact to certain things that come with doing this type of analysis--- Such as McInerney, Wenger, Bruin and Rolfe all averaging about 4.0 shots created per game individually. That seems rather important, but there is additional data that is missing. How much was each shot that they created worth? What other attributes do they bring to the match? This is just an simple break down between two players and comparing how they've impacted their respective clubs.

Personally, looking at all of this data, I'm of the mindset that Montreal got the better player. However, it's extremely close and that isn't taking into account the rosters in which they are joining or how they might be utilized on the pitch with their new teams (4-3-3 concerns vs. 4-4-2 placement). I would say at this time the difference between the two is that one is younger and has more experience. That might be a bit simplistic approach but honestly both create shots the same way in the same space. McInerney does so at a higher rate but Wenger has made up for taking less shots with taking advantage of his more experienced partner, Marco Di Vaio, and feeding him opportunities.

This may be one of the more interesting trades in recent memory. I'm fascinated to watch what happens next and how each of these two players develop. Their career arcs will go a long way in providing the narrative for this trade and I'm not so certain that this is as one-sided as some people might think. Referencing baseball again, the Tampa Bay (then, Devil) Rays were largely regarded as having "sold low" on Delmon Young. We can now see, looking over the past decade,  that he never managed to put together all those tools that we once believed he had. The lesson being: don't be too quick to judge Philadelphia. This isn't necessarily going to be something as easily evaluated by just a single season, and time will reveal the significance of this day.

How It Happened: Week Four

Week four was a great week for MLS fans. It seemed like nearly every game ended with a stoppage time goal to rescue a draw or clinch a victory, and there were plenty of great goals and saves to go around. On a personal level, week four was less great: between a car breakdown, being super busy at my real job and the USA-Mexico friendly happening at 11 PM EST, I come to you for my weekly column a day late and a game short. Sincerest apologies to my loyal readers (both of you).  

Philadelphia Union 1 - 1 Montreal Impact

Stat that told the story for Montreal: Long passes and counter-attacks

So this isn't necessarily a stat, but watching Montreal is a clear lesson in direct attacking with long passes. The image above shows all the completed passes by Montreal in the middle third of the field, and you can tell that they tend to be pretty long. And these are only the completed passes - long passes have a higher tendency to be incomplete, so in fact Montreal attempted way more long passes than are in the picture. On the bright side, Montreal has some guys who are pretty darn good at those long passes (and another who's pretty darn good on the end of them: check out this beauty that Mapp hits to Marco Di Vaio for the Impact's lone goal. This isn't new for Montreal: it's exactly how they played last year when they rolled to a hot start and then struggled mightily down the stretch. The hot start hasn't exactly happened this year; will the rest of the season play out any better?

Stat that told the story for Philadelphia: 3 blocked shots by Amobi Okugo & Aaron Wheeler

What hurts for Philadelphia fans is that if the centerback pairing of Okugo and Wheeler had managed to block a fourth shot, the Union probably would've snatched three points instead of just one. From watching Philly a couple times now this year, it seems like their backline, particularly Okugo, blocks a ton of shots. MLS fantasy stats say Okugo is averaging 9.5 CBIs (Clearances, Blocks & Interceptions) per game, and he tallied 9 against Montreal. But only two were blocked shots, and if he had closed Marco Di Vaio down just one step earlier on that goal.... Still, MDV is a class player even at his advanced age, and Okugo has saved enough goals this year that one slip up is hardly enough to pile on the guy.

Seattle Sounders 1 - 2 Columbus Crew

Stat that told the story for Columbus: Location of Federico Higuain's touches

If you haven't watched any Columbus Crew games yet this season, you're missing out on the most entertaining team in the league. This tweet from Armchair Analyst Matt Doyle sums it up better than I ever could: the Crew is so fluid and so good at creating space in possession that they create a ton of chances. The straw that stirs the drink for all this is their talisman, Federico Higuain. In the past, Higuain has floated all over the attacking half of the field to get on the ball, but this year he's extended his meanderings to the entire field (see exhibit A: heat map above).

Another part of what's making Columbus so successful this year is how well the rest of the team plays off his movement. For example, when Higuain slides onto Bernardo Anor's flank, sometimes Anor or Dom Oduro or Tony Tchani makes a run off the movement to create an attacking chance. This kind of interplay is awesome to watch, and if Gregg Berhalter can keep his team's creative spark alive then Columbus could not only make the postseason, but make some noise once there.

Stat that told the story for Seattle: 20 recoveries + interceptions in attacking half

After writing an opus to Columbus' early play, it's time to bring them back down to Earth a little bit. If it weren't for the red card issued to Djimi Traore, the Crew's perfect start would've been seriously in jeopardy. Sigi Schmid came out with a good tactical plan to counteract Berhalter's attacking possession style, pressing high up the field and trying to win the ball off Columbus' defenders.

Before going a man down, the pressing led to a number of balls won in the attacking half which led directly to dangerous Seattle counterattacks. Some of this high pressing could also be attributed to the 4-3-3 that the Sounders employed in the absence of Clint Dempsey. I might be alone in this opinion, but I wouldn't mind seeing Dempsey in that formation alongside Obafemi Martins and one of Lamar Neagle/Kenny Cooper. I know Sounders fans want Dempsey to be the focal point of this team, but he might just be more effective as a complimentary piece in a balanced formation.

Agree with my assessments? Think I'm an idiot? I always appreciate feedback. @MLSAtheist