Season Preview: FC Dallas

Over the past three seasons, fans of the Hoops have seen their team crash down from the high of a 2010 MLS Cup Finals appearance . In 2012, those same fans endured a 13-game winless streak, to be followed by another 11-game winless streak in 2013, resulting in Dallas missing the playoffs each of the past two seasons. What made matters worse was their red hot start to 2013, where they raced out to a 7-2-3 record and 24 points by the end of May, good for first place in the West. After missing out on the post season following such a hot start, Schellas Hyndman was shown the door (officially resigned), and former FC Dallas player and long time assistant Oscar Pareja was hired to right the ship. There is much optimism surrounding Dallas as they look to put the past behind them and get themselves back into the playoffs in 2014.

2013 Finish: 44 Points, 8th in the Western Conference, Missed MLS Playoffs

Player Added	Position	Acquired from:	Player Lost	Position	To
Ryan Hollingshead	M	2013 SuperDraft	Ugo Ihemelu	D	option declined
Adam Moffat	M	traded from Seattle	Ramon Nunez	M	option declined
Brian Span	M	weighted lottery	Erick	M	option declined
Hendry Thomas	M	traded from Colorado	Jackson	M	traded to Toronto
Andres Escobar	F	Loan (Dynamo Kiev)	Victor Ulloa	M	out of contract
David Texeira	F	Free (FC Groningen)	David Ferreira	M	option declined
			Kenny Cooper	F	traded to Seattle

Roster Churn: 77.97% returning minutes (12th lowest in MLS)

Lots of optimism surround the Hoops after the theft appointment of Oscar "Papi" Pareja as head coach, and for good reason. The former Colorado Rapids head coach was highly regarded by the front office, was a contender for MLS Coach of the Year after Colorado overachieved last season with their young roster, thanks in some part to Pareja's guidance.

 

While the optimism is high, there are also some concerns with the team, as they jettisoned off a few key pieces from last year (Captain David Ferreira, striker Kenny Cooper, and winger Jackson), and now FC Dallas must work through that awkward transition where new faces and a new coach try to get on the same page. Will the front office and Dallas fans be patient enough to wait for Pareja to work his magic, given they've missed the playoffs two season in a row now? His first season in Colorado was forgettable (11-19-4, no playoffs), but there were clear signs of improvement in his second year (14-11-9, knock out rounds). 

 

With the exception of Blas Perez, the Dallas attack is young. [Fabian] Castillo (21), [Andres] Escobar (22), and [Mauro] Diaz (22) make for a very dangerous trio if they can develop their chemistry together. Diaz has been handed the number 10 jersey and will hold the keys to driving the Hoops offense this season. Much like it was with his predecessor, Captain Ferreira, where Diaz goes, FC Dallas will follow. And while the short glimpses we saw of Diaz were promising last season, being the focal point and main man for the entire season in a new league is another thing to handle altogether. 

 

Last season's Achilles heel had to be the central midfield for Dallas. When holding midfielder Peter Luccin went down with an injury before the season began, FC Dallas was left without any adequate cover, and it lost its midfield bite and any real quality in linking the defense to the attack. That has been addressed strongly this off season with the acquisition of former Rapids midfielder Hendry Thomas (who is basically a tank on cleats) and former Sounder Adam Moffat (better link up player). Not to mention Luccin is back and healthy, and Andrew Jacobson got a good solid year of starter experience under his belt. Dallas' thinnest spot in 2013 has suddenly become their greatest depth in 2014.

 

The Dallas defense looks largely the same with everyone from last year who got significant playing time returning. The debate now is whether that's a good or a bad thing. Jair Benitez is now a year older, and while he provides help in offense (hello golazo!), his defending remains inconsistent. Zach Loyd had a subpar year by his standards in 2013. Whether he can regain his form that led him to be a USMNT call up waits to be seen. 

 

Finally, the last question mark for Dallas is what will Pareja do with homegrown standout Kellyn Acosta? His breakthrough 2013 was a huge step in the right direction for the Homegrown Player program, but where does he fit on this team? In 2013 he filled in admirably---at times better than Loyd at right back---but the teenage star has spoken that his preferred position is defensive midfield. Regardless of where he plays, Acosta is a talent that needs to see the field as much as possible. 

FC Dallas finished 2013 as the epitome of average statistically, posting the 10th best expected goal differential, as well as the 10th best shot attempt ratio. Hope rests in Pareja's ability to work with a team that has added six new players to date, and to inject this team with a little magic that worked for Pareja's former team last season.

 

Crowd Sourcing Placement: 8th place in Western Conference; 107 of the 406 8th-place votes (26.35%), and 321 of 404 (79.5%) of voters felt that FC Dallas would not make the playoffs in 2014.

*ExpGD is the same as our metric xGD.

 

Season Preview: Montreal Impact

The newest franchise in Major League Soccer, the Montreal Impact, has carved out its niche pretty distinctly since inception in 2012. With strong ties to Serie A through multiple Italian players, Montreal has seen decent success for such a new franchise. They just missed the playoffs in their expansion year, and sneaked in as the five seed last year. But with the success has come another reputation: they already seem rather fond of changing coaches. Entering their third season of play, Montreal’s owner Joey Saputo is already onto his third manager, with Frank Klopas taking the wheel in 2014. 2013 Finish: 49 Points, 5th in Eastern Conference, Qualified for MLS Cup playoff, lost in conference play-in round.

Name	Position	Acquired from:	Player Lost	Position	To
Eric Miller	D	SuperDraft (Creighton)	Alessandro Nesta	D	Retired
Santiago Gonzalez	F	Free (Sud America)	Paolo DelPiccolo	M	Option Declined
			Maximiliano Rodriguez	M	Option Declined
			Sinisa Ubiparipovic	M	Option Declined
			Davy Arnaud	M	DC United
			Zarek Valentin	M	Transfer to Bodø/Glimt

Roster Churn: 82.98% returning minutes (4th highest in MLS)

2013 started out about as perfect as any Impact fan could have hoped. But the team then coughed, sputtered, and wheezed its way into the wildcard round of the postseason, where the coughing and wheezing turned to seizing, and Montreal's campaign met an early demise. Marco Schallibaum's tenure started with a bang, as Montreal won each of its first four games by one tally each, all of them by a scoreline of 1-0 or 2-1. Those close, low-scoring victories figured to set the tone for the season---Montreal was a stout defensive team who would get bodies behind the ball and look to finish swift counter-attacks through Marco Di Vaio. This formula helped them to win the Canadian Championship for a second year running, qualifying them for next season's CONCACAF Champions League. Unfortunately, their tactical secret wasn't particularly well-kept throughout the league, as opposing teams figured out how to counter the Impact's strategy after about the first third of the season. The regular season's final 20 games saw only five Montreal victories, as they earned just a point per game during that span while simultaneously crashing out of last year's CCL.

Still, their hot start was enough to squeeze into the Eastern Conference knockout round, as they slipped into the five seed thanks to a superior goal difference to Chicago. But the luck would run out for Schallibaum and the French-Canadian club in a hurry, as they were beaten and outclassed by the Houston Dynamo in the do-or-die playoff, 3-0. The game was as damaging to Montreal's reputation, too, as Nelson Rivas, Andres Romero and Di Vaio were all ejected for various infractions. The last moments of the match devolved into more of a cat-fight than a soccer match, with the men in blue performing the side of jealous aggressors. In the end, not only was the season over but so too was Schallibaum's tenure in Montreal; he was fired a few weeks later.

I’ll be frank: it’s hard to imagine that this year’s Montreal Impact is much improved over last year’s iteration. And with seemingly every other team in the Eastern Conference signing big name Designated Players, it would follow that Montreal’s stagnation would see them drop a few rungs in the standings this season. Don’t take my word for it – just ask central defender Matteo Ferrari. Here’s a clue for the future expansion sides in MLS: it’s never a good sign when your club has to release a statement clarifying that one of your top players is in fact on the same page as your technical director.

With that bit of harshness out of the way, Montreal does still have some pretty good players. Troy Perkins is still a quality MLS goalkeeper, the aforementioned Ferrari is a good back line anchor along with Hassoun Camara, and Di Vaio is arguably the best pure goal scorer in MLS. They also return the very good Justin Mapp, Patrice Bernier and Hernan Bernardello in midfield. But there remain holes for this club, largest of them being how they might set up tactically.

As outlined above, Montreal's plan A, B and C last year was to get behind the ball, make it hard for opposition to score and then counter through Di Vaio and squeak out low-scoring victories. But other teams figured that out, and the Impact’s effectiveness waned as the season continued. With a new coach on board in Frank Klopas (formerly of the Chicago Fire), it’s likely that the side’s tactics will undergo an overhaul. What type of overhaul remains to be seen: Klopas’ teams in Chicago were, for lack of a better word, bleh.

They weren't a particularly high pressing team or an all-out possession attack, nor did they sit deep and only look to attack on the counter. They did a little of each of these things, but often did none of them well enough to be a real contender. I suppose from a Montreal fan’s standpoint, it might be better to have a team that can give multiple looks than the one-dimensional side last year, but I’m still not sure Klopas is the one to bring the club to the top.

Turning to the players, there are some holes to be filled from last year. All-world defender Alessandro Nesta retired, leaving a combination of Nelson Rivas and Adrian Lopez to fill his shoes. Despite Nesta’s pedigree, he had lost a step or eight at his age, so replacing him shouldn't be too huge of a concern – if those other guys can stay healthy. Also departed from last season was versatile midfielder, Davy Arnaud, whose leadership will be missed. Felipe Martins and Andres Romero both return and should hope to build on seasons in which they showed flashes of quality, if not consistency, in MLS.

When it comes to conclusions though, it’s hard to be optimistic about Montreal’s season. They added basically no one of impact (no pun intended), and all of their best players are a year older, and in most of their cases, a year further past their prime. Not to mention that our expected goal differential statistic suggests they were one of the worst teams in all of MLS last season. Frank Klopas may find more success in Montreal than he did in Chicago, but I think it’s safe to say he’s not expected to be a coach of the year candidate. Unless the Impact have more moves up their sleeve, or some of the unproven youngsters become stars this season, I can’t see Montreal winning a playoff berth.

Crowd Sourcing Placement: 9th place in Eastern Conference; 65 of the 404 9th-place votes (16.09%).

*ExpGD is the same as our statistic xGD under the shoot table.

Season Preview: Chivas USA

Most people would associate Chivas USA with the pinnacle of terribleness within MLS. They've accrued all of 56 points combined the last two seasons which barely eclipses the LA Galaxy totals, their evil timeshare neighbor, over the course of just one year. The club from the beginning has sported a feel that was awkward---almost insulting---and it has been a bit of an outcast from the rest of the league. Despite what we all know about them now, it's easy to forget that as few as five years ago they were the more dominant LA brand, earning top-three finishes in 2006, 2007 and in 2008. They were lead by the likes of US internationals Brad Guzan, Sacha Kljestan and Jonathan Bornstein. They boasted the scoring prowess of Ante Razov, one of the premier scoring talents in MLS history, who is still the club's all-time goal scorer. Despite the recent woes, it's not outside the realm of possibility that they could return to a run of strong form. But it will likely need to be built upon the youth and Academy products they've been working to develop, as Chivas USA has been cited as one of the more talent rich organizations at the youth level.

Make no mistake about it; things are just starting to get interesting in the City of Angels.

2013 Finish: 26 points, 9th in the Western Conference, Missed Playoffs

Player Added	Position	From	Player Lost	Position	To
Andrew Jean-Baptiste	D	traded from Portland Timbers	Patrick McLain	GK	Option Declined
Tony Lochhead	D	Free (Wellington Phoenix)	Mario de Luna	D	End of Loan
Andrew Ribeiro	D	Free (Harrisburg City Islanders)	Jaime Frias	D	End of Loan
Fejiro Okiomah	D	Free (Charlotte Eagles)	Steve Purdy	D	Option Declined
Donald Toia	D	Free (Phoenix FC)	Daniel Antunez	D	Option Declined
Thomas McNamara	M	SuperDraft (Clemson)	Jorge Villafana	D	traded to Portland
Austin Pelletieri	M	Free (Racing Club)	Edgar Mejia	M	End of Loan
Mauro Rosales	M	traded from Seattle Sounders	Marvin Iraheta	M	Option Declined
Adolfo Bautista	F	Free (Unattached)	Josue Soto	M	Option Declined
			Gabriel Farfan	M	loaned to Chiapas
			Jose Manuel Rivera	F	Option Declined
			Tristan Bowen	F	traded to Seattle
			Julio Morales	F	End of Loan

Roster Churn: 52.24% returning minutes (lowest return rate in MLS)

Okay, we know this team sucks. They've sucked each of the last four years. So they'll suck again this year right? Well... maybe. Or perhaps they're a team that could catch a couple of early wins and find some teams napping---much like what they did last year---and continue stealing points right up to a fifth-place finish. They've injected some talent, and there is the possibility, if the rumors about Luke Moore are true Chivas confirmed Moore has signed for the club yesterday, that they're not done yet and that's a very good thing for the club moving forward.

Yes, Erik 'Cubo' Torres is perhaps the most talented piece on the roster. Yes, he will head back to his native Chivas Guadalajara in June which will pretty much bone the forgotten leftovers of Jorge Vergara. Which is sad because the talent level and parity for MLS is close that it really wouldn't take much for Chivas to become a club that could quietly sneak into MLS playoff contention.

The Goats off-season was largely productive if you forget about the addition of Adolfo Bautista---who, to me, is a worrisome deal considering the 34-year old didn't even score a goal last season through his 16 games (international appearances included) and could very well turn out to be a scrub.

Looking specifically to the defense, the club acquired Andrew Jean-Baptiste for pretty much being at the right place at the right time. This is an unequivocal boon for a defense that was just plain bad through the 2013 campaign, posting a league worst expected goals against (xGA) total of 55. This speaks not just to the volume of shots the line-up allowed, but also the quality at which they were fired at Dan Kennedy's goal. Baptiste isn't necessarily an earth-shattering piece now, and he's still raw, but getting him starts and placing him alongside Carlos Bocanegra could cultivate the young 21-year-old's potential, and he could grow into a top-level central defensive player with the aspirations of being involved with the USMNT.

The midfield has it's share of questions, as they lacked effectiveness, if not bite, with Oswaldo Minda in central  defense. Recoveries are a good thing and "even have a positive correlation with long term results". The other side of that is fouls are mostly bad (duh). Yet, I'm not sure that fact was ever explained to Minda. When Minda was able to find his way on to the pitch healthily, he committed a lot of fouls (35) and it limited the helpfulness of the recoveries (95) that he procured. Top central defending midfielders (think in this case of Osvaldo Alonso and Kyle Beckerman) usually boast twice that ratio. What that means is simply that Minda must play more minutes, foul less, and gobble up more free balls if the goal is to lessen the load for the youthful defense.

We've now reached the part of this segment where I try to convince you that Mauro Rosales will help Chivas USA, and that he's not done yet. In fact, I feel that with his help, Cubo Torres could become more Torres than you could likely handle or imagine---and yet, at the very same time, Rosales could rip what heart is left from the limited Chivas USA faithful. He was 9th in MLS in creating shots (65 total key passes), but in reality he was further up the chain in the per -90 version of the stat, which I prefer as I feel it's a stat that is better in ratio format.Rosales isn't just about delivering passes though. The guy still has some pace to him, puts forth a ton of effort, and can score a few goals too. While he doesn't even average a shot per 90, that wasn't his role with Seattle. He averaged roughly one goal every 500 minutes, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a slight bump in those numbers. With that in mind, he's getting older, and part of the reason why the Sounders parted ways with him (beyond the issue of his contract) is that he's declined in each of his three seasons with in the Emerald City. He's going on 33 years old this season, and after visibly losing a step last year, there is reasonable concern that he might not make 2,000 minutes, let alone a full season. Despite all that, what minutes he manages to get he'll make an impact for The Goats.Looking at the roster as a whole, there is quite a disparity in age. There are 7 of the 23 individuals on the roster that are over the age of 30. Then on the other side of the coin there are 6 of 23 that are 21 or younger. If---and perhaps a better word is "when"---injury strikes, they could to be forced to throw those young players to the rest of the league. This is obviously going to affect their play, as there is a drop off in not just talent but also experience.I see a situation where they could improve over their season last year. Then again, it could be a situation where we find the team forced to play younger players of lesser quality, getting stuck in the same trend they were last year where they have some interesting players without the supporting cast to take them into contention for a playoff spot. Either way this is a club that, in our pre-season survey, 93% of voters rated as a non-playoff club. That's the highest percentage of any club, even in the East where there is an extra team left out of the playoffs.This off-season was an improvement---you'll get no argument from me about that. Major League Soccer purchasing the club and preparing for a rebrand, is again, a good thing not just for the league but the fans that support Chivas. As the organization adds talent and continue to bring in the young players from their once promising academy, the club will only move closer to contention. Finding a new owner that can and will match the dollars that LA Galaxy throw around is another key item on the list.Crowd Sourcing Placement: 9th place in Western Conference; 286 of the 406 9th-place votes (70.44%).*ExpGD is the same as our xGD statistic on the site.

Season Preview: Columbus Crew

There have been ups, and there have been downs for the Crew over the last four seasons, perhaps even more so than with other teams. Since winning MLS Cup in 2008 the departure of coach Sigi Schmid, the club made Robert Warzycha head coach. But then a steady fall ensued that has seen the club completely miss out on the playoffs each of the last two seasons. This led to the dismissal of long-time fixture Warzycha, who had been a part of the club since it's inception in 1996.  Add this to the Hunt family finally selling off its ownership of the club, and you have a full docket of changes that have occurred around Crew Stadium. Unfortunately for Columbus, none these are indicators that the club will improve, at least in the short term. 2013 Finish: 41 Points, 8th in the Eastern Conference, Missed MLS Playoffs

Player Added	Position	From	Player Lost	Position	To
Steve Clark	GK	traded from Seattle (Hønefoss BK)	Andy Gruenebaum	GK	Traded to Kansas City
Brad Stuver	GK	Unattached	Chad Marshall	D	Traded to Seattle
Ben Sweat	D	USF (SuperDraft)	Drew Beckie	D	Option Declined
Giancarlo Gonzalez	D	Free (Valerenga)	Gláuber	D	Option Declined
Michael Parkhurst	D	Free (FC Augsburg)	Kyle Hyland	D	Option Declined
Ross Friedman	D	HPG	Danny O’Rourke	D	Option Declined
Waylon Francis	D	Free (Herediano)	Eddie Gaven	M	Retired
Matt Wiet	D	HGP	Matías Sánchez	M	Waived
Kingsley Baiden	M	SuperDraft (Cal-Santa Barbara)	Konrad Warzcha	M	Option Declined
Daniel Paladini	M	traded from Chicago Fire	Aaron Horton	F	Waived
Hector Jimenez	M	traded from LA Galaxy
Matt Walker	M	HGP

Roster Churn: 72.03% returning minutes (7th lowest in MLS)

The Crew didn't exactly stand still this off-season. Columbus found new homes elsewhere for both Chad Marshall and Glauber, courtesy of new head coach Gregg Berhalter's tactics and spending style, which in turn opened up salary cap space.  With those maneuvers, it created a void that was filled by returning US National Team figure Michael Parkhurst, followed up this week with the addition of Giancarlo Gonzalez---obviously placing an emphasis on the rebuilding of the backline to a point of strength. Taking Ben Sweat during the SuperDraft added to that growing defensive depth, and he may even end up the starter by the beginning of the season, depending how the position shakes out with Tyson Wahl. These changes make up much of the 72-percent roster turnover.

There is a gaping hole in the midfield due to the stunning retirement of Eddie Gaven. The acquisition of Hector Jimenez helps to mitigate some of that loss, and there is a reason to believe that youngster Will Trapp is ready to take that next step forward. However, Gaven has been an integral, if not an altogether vital, piece of the midfield---for more than just his leadership. His departure stings and will reverberate throughout the season.

The forward tandem of Federico Higuaín and Jairo Arrieta remains intact, and despite a rough season, Arrieta should look forward to some positive regression to the mean. 2013 was a season where he took more shots (64 vs. 41 attempts) in more playing time (1862 vs. 1534 minutes) than in 2012, yet he scored six fewer goals with at finishing rate of just 4.7 percent. That finishing rate is likely to rebound toward the league-average rate of 10 percent. This is somewhat the opposite outcome from we saw with Dominic Oduro, who "regained his form" in 2013 after a down year in Chicago.

What Crew fans saw from Oduro in 2013 is what they hope to see from Arrieta in 2014. Oduro had more playing time, more shots taken with more of them hitting the target, and he saw his finishing rate jump to 14.1 percent. All he is doing is proving himself with the ball at his feet, and creating shots and scoring opportunities. As we're learning more and more, it's less about the supposed skill of the shooter and more that he's taking high-percentage shots. Couple quality and volume, and it leads to more goals.

Looking to the 2014 season there are a couple of different ways that you can look at this club and judge how their season might end up.

First, it's a club that has had its issues with allowing high-percentage shots. They've added to their defense and seemingly upgraded their keeper, adding American abroad Steve Clarke and making him their conceivable number one. Though I'm not sure that it will change the amount of goals they're going to give up, given that Andy Gruenebaum rated quite highly himself in our Goalkeeper ratings 1.0. With a modified backline and a new set of tactics, you never know how the change of approach might reduce opponents' possessions in advantageous locations, but it's an uphill battle for the Crew.

Yet, despite the defensive leaks, they still took more shots in 2013 than they allowed, and their expected goal differential was actually better than that of New England and Montreal, two playoff teams. Should they continue that trend of producing more shots than their opponents, there does still remain a possibility that they score more goals than they allow. Despite posting a -4 goal differential this past year, there is a chance that going forward their luck improves, and they ride a high PDO to some extra goals in opportune moments.

Columbus, like the rest of the league, has talent. They have some perennially underappreciated talents. Federico Higuaín is consistently an MVP candidate, and while I haven't taken much time to talk about him, he's easily the best player on the club and possibly in the league. The shocking thing is, and I often forget this, he's only 29. The biggest thing surrounding the Crew with Higuian is whether or not they can keep him. There was talk that a club in Liga MX was gearing up to make a move for him.

The best-case scenario for Columbus in 2014 is that it finds a way to get into a #4 or #5-seed position. It would play out something like this: the Crew gets lucky with limiting opportunities, and then on the other side of the pitch they strike it rich on goal-scoring chances. However, the possibility of the Crew reaching those heights at this point seems a rather lofty aspiration at this stage. Too many balls would have to bounce their way, and it leads most fans to believe that this will likely be another season that teeters on the wrong side of the playoffs.

The worst-case scenario, and the one that I find to be the most likely, is that the Crew end up the anchor of the standings, sitting near the token Toronto FC position and fighting for respectability through the season. I remain on the fence that both conferences are going to have an incredibly high amount of parity. On the right side of the country, the Crew could pull out a season much in the vein of the past two years where they continue to press for a playoff position, falling short about two or three weeks prior to season's completion. Or they could just be a club that gets bossed around, taking bad shots, limiting their true goal scoring opportunities, and surrendering too many goals.

Crowd Sourcing Placement: 10th place in Eastern Conference; 102 of the 404 10th-place votes (25.25%).

*ExpGD is the same as our metric xGD.

Thanks to reddit user xynto for pointing out we had initially given given Warzycha credit for the Crew's MLS Cup, when it actually came in 2008 under Schmidt.

Pre-season Survey and Team Previews

Now that we've been pestering you all by tweeting, sharing, spamming, and pretty much all-out begging for you to participate in our pre-season MLS standings survey, we feel it's only fair that we share it with you! Thanks to you guys, we got hundreds of votes, so I first want to say thank you for all that. Thanks. Part of the exercise was to see what you all thought of how the table will shape up more than 35 weeks from now. Yes, there were transactions that happened in the middle of the polling, and it probably changed the way we thought about how to rank teams in some cases. But crazy as it might seem, the poll produced results showing definitive tiers between teams. There are a lot of various theories about how one might go about making "power rankings," and while it's a pretty arbitrary endeavor---who is to say that any result is right or wrong?---I think common sense could easily rebuff the three people who voted Chivas USA with a #1 overall finish in the West. That's just crazy.

The other side of the exercise was to, come November, make a point. Perhaps an obvious point that can go without saying, but a point. The idea that, during the pre-season, we could accurately project standings is contemptible (but it will be interesting to see how you all do collectively). Basically, I get agitated when I see a narrative that states "Who would have seen this coming?" or when someone makes a grand claim that "No one thought 'Team X' was going to be this bad!" Who decided he could speak for everyone? Now, we can speak for, at least, a few hundred people at the end of the 2014 season when we say, "Who could have seen Chivas doing so well? Oh, it was you three!" (Just kidding. That won't happen.) The individuals who participated in this project are mostly those of a select, niche community---well, and my mom---and you will (hopefully) help me with my agitation.

Speaking now as to specific methods of organizing and ranking the standings from the poll results: if you scrape a bunch of opinions from fans of various teams and get perspectives of supporters from 400+ backgrounds and locales, I believe it's possible that you can sift through some of the bias that often occurs when just a few people share opinions. It's a crowdsourced cocktail made without disposition, and still delicious. While it's far from perfect, I find it's a pretty good barometer.

While we plan on releasing the final results of the said crowd sourcing project in two weeks (March 7th), we're also in the process of putting together our pre-season team previews. We've got a great pool of writers that have taken a lot of time to put this together, and have also been helping us gather data that should yield even more new statistics and analyses this year. This isn't just about us generating content. It's an opportunity for these guys to get a shout out for all that they've done. Most will be joining us on a podcast next week where you'll get to hear from them and hopefully get an introduction of sorts.

We will publish the team previews beginning this afternoon in the order in which the clubs scored on the survey, from worst to first, alternating between Eastern and Western Conference. Posts will go up each day until the beginning of the season.

Happy 2014, everyone!

American Soccer Analysis Fantasy League

Hey guys, you know how you join a fantasy league every year at the start of a season, and then you forget about it until the dying weeks of the season, once things get exciting? Well we want to you to do that in our league this year! Don't make me beg, because I'll do it! Oh, but you think you're not cool enough to hang with all of us? Newsflash: our levels of fantasy intelligence and attention to our rosters could both be described as mediocre. Just like you. And wait! There's more! The winner of this said league will win ... something. I promise it'll be something. I've been playing with a few ideas and regardless of what you may have heard of me, I've still got a few original ideas.

For instance: How about a gift card to Texas Roadhouse? That place is like... awesome. You can eat peanuts and just throw it on the floor. IT'S ANARCHY! True story: I once ate there on thanksgiving and it was okay. I'm a story teller, what can I say?

Oh, what's that? Texas Roadhouse gift card isn't the coolest thing in the world? You have a peanut allergy? You live in Texas and that's just a normal day for you? No problemo. We'll trash that idea. I never liked it any how. What about a trip to Disneyland?!? Oh, wait. *Opens wallet* Nope, can't do that. We're still poor.

Okay. Whatever the prize, and I'll make sure it's good, you could win it, and you'll be like, "this was so worth the five minutes of setting my line-up while  some guy cries at his computer and screams in all caps 'I SPENT MORE THAN 10 HOURS A WEEK RESEARCHING TO WIN THIS DUMB LEAGUE.'" And you'll laugh---hell we'll all laugh---because remember: we don't remember to check our line-ups either.

All you have to do is log in to mlssoccer.com, go to the fantasy section,  join private league, and enter code 9593-1668 to enter into this esteemed gathering of nerds that will probably talk a much bigger game than they are actually capable of backing up.

ASA Podcast: XXXVII The One Where We Talk ExpG

Don't get too excited about the title. We really don't go into this nearly as much as we probably should have. We draw a lot of our thoughts from the 11tegen11 article that sets the table nicely for the discussion, and we just kind of build around that. The audio for the first portion is a little maddening. We had a few problems, but everything was cleared up after about the first 20 minutes, so don't be deterred from finishing this one. There are some good points made by Drew and me, if I may say so, which make it well worth a listen.

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/asa-podcast-xxxvii-the-one-where-we-talk-expg.mp3]

ASA Podcast XXXVI: The Ghost of the Opta Pro Forum

A couple weeks ago the Opta Pro Forum took place and this week we take a look at some of the different studies that came as a result and some key thoughts that we pulled out of them. Covering such a wide range of topics we invited site friend Chris Gluck to talk with us about some of these various subjects. It was a lot of fun and I think we covered some interesting topics. During the podcast we also mention the movement of Hendry Thomas, who goes from Colorado to Dallas and the current status of Matias Laba with Toronto FC and his impending move away from the club. Enjoy!

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/asa-podcast-xxxvi-the-ghost-of-opta-pro-forum.mp3]

ASA Podcast XXXV: The Return of The Cast

We're back with the podcast!We return to review the snooze-fest that was the US Mens game last weekend. Stepping our big toe into a bit of the pre-season waters and turn the talk to some of the major moves around MLS and some of the clubs we've seen improve the most over the last few months. Lastly we give you a bit of insight to what's going on with the site and perhaps something to watch for in the coming months. Enjoy!

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/asa-podcast-xxxv.mp3]

Calculating Expected Goal Differential 1.0

The basic premise of expected goal differential is to assess how dangerous a team's shots are, and how dangerous its opponent's shots are. A team that gets a lot of dangerous shots inside the box, but doesn't give up such shots on defense, is likely to be doing something tactically or skillfully, and is likely to be able to reproduce those results.

The challenge to creating expected goal differential (xGD), then, is to obtain data that measures the difficulty of each shot all season long. Our xGD 1.0 utilized six zones on the field to parse out the dangerous shots from those less so. Soon, we will create xGD 2.0 in which shots are not only sorted by location, but also by body part (head vs. foot) and by run of play (typical vs. free kick or penalty). Obviously kicked shots are more dangerous than headed shots, and penalty kicks are more dangerous than other shots from zone two, the location just behind the six-yard box.

So now, for the calculations.

Across the entire league, for all 8,291 shots taken in 2013, we calculate the proportion of shots from each zone that were finished (scored):

Location	Goals	Shots	Finish%
One	129	415	31.1%
Two	451	2547	17.7%
Three	100	1401	7.1%
Four	85	1596	5.3%
Five	51	2190	2.3%
Six	5	142	3.5%

We see that shots from zones one and two are the most dangerous, while shots from farther out or from wider angles are less dangerous. To calculate a team's offensive "dangerousness," we count the number of shots each team attempted from each zone, and then multiply each total by the league's finishing rate. As an example, here we have Sporting Kansas City's offensive totals:

Locations	Goals	Attempts	Finish%	ExpGoals
One	5	18	31.1%	5.6
Two	29	160	17.7%	28.3
Three	5	78	7.1%	5.6
Four	3	97	5.3%	5.2
Five	2	120	2.3%	2.8
Six	1	17	3.5%	0.6
Total	45	490	9.2%	48.1

Offensively, if SKC had finished at the league average rate from each respective zone, then it would have scored about 48 goals. Now let's focus on SKC's defensive shot totals:

Locations	Goals	Attempts	Finish%	ExpGoals
One	4	13	31.1%	4.0
Two	17	95	17.7%	16.8
Three	4	54	7.1%	3.9
Four	4	56	5.3%	3.0
Five	1	84	2.3%	2.0
Six	0	4	3.5%	0.1
Total	30	306	9.8%	29.8

Defensively, had SKC allowed the league average finishing rate from each zone, it would have allowed about 30 goals (incidentally, that's exactly what it did allow, ignoring own goals).

Subtracting expected goals against from expected goals for, we get a team's expected goal differential. Expected goal differential works so well as a predictor because teams are more capable of repeating their ability to get good (or bad) shots for themselves, and allow good (or bad) shots to their opponents. An extreme game in which a team finishes a high percentage of shots won't sway that team's xGD, nor that of its opponents, making xGD a better indicator of "true talent" at the team level.

As for xGD 2.0, coming soon to a laptop near you, the main difference is that there will be additional shot types to consider. Instead of just six zones, now there will be six zones broken down by headed and kicked shots (12 total zones) in addition to free kick---and possibly even penalty kick---opportunities (adding, at most, four more shot types). As with xGD 1.0, a team's attempts for each type of shot will be multiplied by the league's average finishing rates, and then those totals will be summed to find expected goals for and expected goals against.