Who is the best passer in MLS? Debuting an Expected Pass Completion Model

By Jared Young (@jaredeyoung)

Javier Morales of Real Salt Lake had completed 82.3% of his passes before last weekend. Chad Marshall completed 84.4% of his passes for the Seattle Sounders. Gyasi Zardes has a 66.1% pass completion percentage. Is any of this good? Which player is a better passer? Fans are smart enough to know they can’t compare those numbers directly because Morales and Zardes play attacking roles and Marshall is a defender and will face pressure less often. 

Looking at pass completion percentages without context is a fool's errand. To address this issue I built a model that predicts the likelihood that a given pass will be completed. The effect is that the difficulty of the pass - including position on the field, part of body used, whether it was backwards, etc – can be factored into this expectation. With this model we can observe whether or not a player passes more or less effectively than an average passer, adjusting for the difficulty of the pass.

The dataset used for the model includes almost 308,000 passes attempted during the 2015 MLS season. I split the passes randomly into a training dataset with 70% of the passes and a test dataset with 30% of the passes. I also built three different models to address differences I observed in the defensive and offensive areas.

Below is a validation of the model on the test dataset by pass completion percentage decile. 

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Perhaps more important for a model of this kind is a view of how it validates across the pitch. Below is the difference between forecast and actuals broken into 50 different sections of the pitch. The defensive end is to the left and the offensive end is to the right.

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The model predicts pass completion percentage on this sample within 2% in 43 areas of the pitch. There are six more that range between 3-5% and there is one problematic area right in front of the goal. The model under predicts passes completion by 16% in that area. My hypothesis is that if a player find himself in that position in front of the goal the first inclination would be to shoot. If they chose to pass it is likely because a pass was the more obvious choice due to the positioning of the defense. Therefore, a pass in that zone will be completed more often. Only a more refined model specifically in that zone might be able to figure that out.

Let’s get back to our questions:  Who is a better passer - Morales, Zardes, or Marshall? Is Zardes a good passer at all?  Reference the full table below but the quick answers are: Morales has been the most efficient passer in the league this season. His expected pass completion percentage is 69.1%, so he is generally attempted pretty difficult passes. On the other hand Chad Marshall’s passes are much less difficult as his expected pass completion percentage is 81.2%  He’s still a better than expected passer, but not in the category of Javier Morales, which of course is to be expected.

Zardes is also a decent passer as his expected pass completion percentage is 64.3%. Nothing earth shattering but these examples show the model is differentiating passers as fans might expect.

It’s always fun to look at the bad passers too. Alvas Powell scores as the worst passer who is not a goalkeeper. Didier Drogba is on the list as well. His pass completion percentage is 6.2% worse than expected. Heralded rookie Brandon Vincent is also struggling with a -5.0% difference. 

Below is the complete list of passers with more than 200 passes attempted this year. It needs to be pointed out that passes are being completed at a higher rate in 2016 compared to 2015 so overall there are more players with a positive score than a negative one. That could be a sign the league is improving, or a sign defenses are less aggressive.

Thanks to @KevinMinkus for much help bringing this model to life.

Player	Team	PassCompletion%	xPassCompletion%	PC% - xPC%	Passes
Javier Morales	Salt Lake	0.823	0.691	13.2%	965
Sebastian Lletget	L.A. Galaxy	0.817	0.696	12.1%	518
Nick DeLeon	DC United	0.845	0.725	12.0%	647
Alberto Quintero	San Jose	0.798	0.688	11.0%	633
Michael Barrios	FC Dallas	0.748	0.647	10.1%	448
Patrick Nyarko	DC United	0.681	0.583	9.8%	317
Mike Magee	L.A. Galaxy	0.775	0.68	9.5%	512
Baggio Husidic	L.A. Galaxy	0.806	0.711	9.5%	510
Ned Grabavoy	Portland	0.888	0.798	9.0%	205
Simon Dawkins	San Jose	0.819	0.73	8.9%	750
Mohammed Saeid	Columbus	0.879	0.791	8.9%	672
Tsubasa Endoh	Toronto	0.769	0.682	8.7%	334
Daigo Kobayashi	New England	0.834	0.748	8.6%	259
Patrice Bernier	Montreal	0.858	0.773	8.4%	330
Darlington Nagbe	Portland	0.878	0.794	8.4%	723
Jack Jewsbury	Portland	0.856	0.772	8.4%	291
Sean Davis	New York	0.799	0.718	8.1%	288
Erik Friberg	Seattle	0.838	0.76	7.8%	766
Cristian Roldan	Seattle	0.826	0.748	7.8%	821
Anibal Godoy	San Jose	0.897	0.821	7.6%	716
Osvaldo Alonso	Seattle	0.909	0.836	7.3%	1350
Brad Davis	Kansas City	0.724	0.655	6.8%	492
Clint Dempsey	Seattle	0.824	0.756	6.8%	501
Matias Perez Garcia	San Jose	0.711	0.644	6.7%	519
Jordan Morris	Seattle	0.784	0.719	6.5%	435
Thomas McNamara	New York City FC	0.777	0.714	6.3%	485
Roger Espinoza	Kansas City	0.792	0.729	6.3%	986
Andrea Pirlo	New York City FC	0.784	0.722	6.1%	1091
Mix Diskerud	New York City FC	0.738	0.677	6.1%	351
Benny Feilhaber	Kansas City	0.76	0.699	6.1%	878
Cristian Maidana	Houston	0.754	0.693	6.1%	609
Lloyd Sam	New York	0.737	0.678	5.9%	609
Graham Zusi	Kansas City	0.749	0.691	5.8%	513
Scott Caldwell	New England	0.867	0.81	5.7%	871
Marco Donadel	Montreal	0.77	0.714	5.6%	365
Kyle Bekker	Montreal	0.85	0.795	5.4%	499
Dylan Remick	Seattle	0.82	0.766	5.4%	334
Boniek Garcia	Houston	0.789	0.735	5.4%	550
Lamar Neagle	DC United	0.665	0.612	5.3%	573
Juan Manuel Martinez	Salt Lake	0.749	0.696	5.3%	622
Diego Valeri	Portland	0.682	0.629	5.3%	924
Mikey Lopez	New York City FC	0.783	0.732	5.1%	281
Marco Delgado	Toronto	0.76	0.709	5.1%	512
Jonathan Osorio	Toronto	0.843	0.793	4.9%	502
Wil Trapp	Columbus	0.874	0.825	4.9%	1341
Luke Mulholland	Salt Lake	0.77	0.722	4.8%	512
Joe Willis	Houston	0.527	0.48	4.7%	330
Jordan Allen	Salt Lake	0.778	0.732	4.6%	257
Shea Salinas	San Jose	0.636	0.59	4.6%	434
Juan Agudelo	New England	0.763	0.717	4.6%	207
Kofi Sarkodie	San Jose	0.804	0.758	4.6%	489
Diego Fagundez	New England	0.787	0.741	4.5%	506
Vincent Nogueira	Philadelphia	0.853	0.807	4.5%	468
Alex	Houston	0.771	0.726	4.5%	676
DaMarcus Beasley	Houston	0.806	0.761	4.5%	800
Tyrone Mears	Seattle	0.802	0.758	4.4%	1057
Kellyn Acosta	FC Dallas	0.785	0.742	4.3%	744
Gershon Koffie	New England	0.838	0.796	4.3%	557
Matias Laba	Vancouver	0.851	0.81	4.1%	934
Russell Teibert	Vancouver	0.836	0.795	4.1%	250
Leonel Miranda	Houston	0.74	0.699	4.1%	319
Kyle Beckerman	Salt Lake	0.824	0.783	4.1%	693
Jeff Larentowicz	L.A. Galaxy	0.85	0.809	4.1%	320
Roland Alberg	Philadelphia	0.797	0.758	3.9%	301
Nigel de Jong	L.A. Galaxy	0.857	0.818	3.9%	894
Tesho Akindele	FC Dallas	0.729	0.69	3.9%	328
Giovani dos Santos	L.A. Galaxy	0.811	0.773	3.9%	392
Brad Evans	Seattle	0.89	0.852	3.8%	670
Ignacio Piatti	Montreal	0.816	0.78	3.6%	641
Tony Tchani	Columbus	0.827	0.791	3.6%	676
Joao Meira	Chicago	0.848	0.812	3.6%	369
Pedro Morales	Vancouver	0.821	0.787	3.4%	804
Tyson Wahl	Columbus	0.849	0.815	3.4%	522
Steven Mendoza	New York City FC	0.746	0.712	3.4%	236
Sam Cronin	Colorado	0.817	0.783	3.4%	940
Marcelo Sarvas	DC United	0.805	0.772	3.3%	945
Jared Watts	Colorado	0.841	0.809	3.3%	403
Sheanon Williams	Houston	0.718	0.685	3.3%	280
David Mateos	Orlando City	0.84	0.808	3.2%	506
Chad Marshall	Seattle	0.844	0.812	3.2%	733
Joao Plata	Salt Lake	0.758	0.727	3.2%	542
Eric Alexander	Montreal	0.883	0.852	3.1%	635
Joshua Yaro	Philadelphia	0.851	0.82	3.1%	376
Micheal Azira	Colorado	0.836	0.805	3.1%	1054
Fabian Castillo	FC Dallas	0.685	0.654	3.1%	489
Ricardo Clark	Houston	0.806	0.776	3.0%	588
Michael Bradley	Toronto	0.817	0.789	2.9%	805
Dax McCarty	New York	0.827	0.798	2.8%	1271
Chris Seitz	FC Dallas	0.692	0.664	2.8%	451
Jared Jeffrey	DC United	0.81	0.782	2.8%	378
Kei Kamara	Columbus	0.696	0.67	2.7%	405
Steven Gerrard	L.A. Galaxy	0.773	0.747	2.6%	596
Servando Carrasco	Orlando City	0.812	0.787	2.6%	613
Demar Phillips	Salt Lake	0.778	0.753	2.5%	659
Maximiliano Urruti	FC Dallas	0.72	0.696	2.4%	347
Victor Ulloa	FC Dallas	0.799	0.775	2.3%	730
Sacha Kljestan	New York	0.72	0.697	2.3%	1054
Fabian Espindola	DC United	0.663	0.64	2.3%	356
Warren Creavalle	Philadelphia	0.795	0.773	2.2%	463
Andres Imperiale	San Jose	0.747	0.725	2.2%	225
Daniel Steres	L.A. Galaxy	0.825	0.804	2.1%	800
Michael Stephens	Chicago	0.748	0.727	2.1%	489
Dillon Powers	Colorado	0.79	0.77	2.0%	463
Felipe	New York	0.732	0.711	2.0%	1144
Lee Nguyen	New England	0.741	0.721	2.0%	914
A.J. DeLaGarza	L.A. Galaxy	0.807	0.787	2.0%	622
Andoni Iraola	New York City FC	0.851	0.832	1.9%	713
Ethan Finlay	Columbus	0.73	0.71	1.9%	370
Gyasi Zardes	L.A. Galaxy	0.662	0.643	1.9%	408
Seb Hines	Orlando City	0.807	0.789	1.8%	545
Nat Borchers	Portland	0.816	0.798	1.8%	657
Diego Chara	Portland	0.836	0.818	1.8%	837
Will Bruin	Houston	0.716	0.698	1.8%	250
Darwin Ceren	Orlando City	0.83	0.813	1.7%	675
Marlon Hairston	Colorado	0.787	0.771	1.7%	207
Dave Romney	L.A. Galaxy	0.755	0.739	1.6%	220
Andrew Jacobson	Vancouver	0.82	0.804	1.5%	538
Fatai Alashe	San Jose	0.819	0.803	1.5%	646
Benoit Cheyrou	Toronto	0.786	0.77	1.5%	387
Bill Hamid	DC United	0.649	0.634	1.5%	211
Chris Pontius	Philadelphia	0.765	0.75	1.5%	515
Zac MacMath	Colorado	0.633	0.618	1.5%	526
Luke Boden	Orlando City	0.74	0.726	1.4%	527
Liam Ridgewell	Portland	0.802	0.788	1.4%	556
Carlos Gruezo	FC Dallas	0.795	0.781	1.4%	673
Joevin Jones	Seattle	0.814	0.801	1.3%	905
Axel Sjoberg	Colorado	0.824	0.811	1.3%	723
Ben Zemanski	Portland	0.826	0.813	1.3%	522
Maynor Figueroa	FC Dallas	0.751	0.738	1.3%	975
Matt Polster	Chicago	0.813	0.801	1.2%	396
Ashley Cole	L.A. Galaxy	0.815	0.803	1.2%	682
RJ Allen	New York City FC	0.781	0.769	1.2%	621
Luis Robles	New York	0.62	0.609	1.1%	524
Kennedy Igboananike	Chicago	0.745	0.734	1.1%	271
Wandrille Lefevre	Montreal	0.79	0.779	1.1%	419
Cristian Higuita	Orlando City	0.825	0.814	1.1%	715
Ryan Hollingshead	FC Dallas	0.746	0.735	1.1%	736
Ilsinho	Philadelphia	0.753	0.743	1.1%	369
Gaston Sauro	Columbus	0.859	0.849	1.0%	270
Federico Higuain	Columbus	0.729	0.719	1.0%	786
Michael Parkhurst	Columbus	0.843	0.833	1.0%	974
Harry Shipp	Montreal	0.757	0.748	0.9%	506
Razvan Cocis	Chicago	0.746	0.737	0.9%	413
Matt Besler	Kansas City	0.811	0.802	0.9%	753
Will Johnson	Toronto	0.812	0.804	0.9%	634
Frederic Brillant	New York City FC	0.814	0.806	0.8%	962
Andre Blake	Philadelphia	0.644	0.636	0.8%	539
Mauro Diaz	FC Dallas	0.705	0.698	0.7%	705
Arturo Alvarez	Chicago	0.679	0.672	0.7%	346
Tranquillo Barnetta	Philadelphia	0.686	0.68	0.7%	740
Robbie Rogers	L.A. Galaxy	0.769	0.762	0.7%	575
Waylon Francis	Columbus	0.776	0.769	0.7%	629
Tommy Redding	Orlando City	0.827	0.82	0.7%	335
Evan Bush	Montreal	0.643	0.636	0.7%	594
Brian Carroll	Philadelphia	0.83	0.823	0.7%	688
Zarek Valentin	Portland	0.741	0.734	0.6%	721
Hector Jimenez	Columbus	0.735	0.728	0.6%	294
Christian Bolanos	Vancouver	0.735	0.729	0.6%	653
Laurent Ciman	Montreal	0.813	0.807	0.6%	658
Marvell Wynne	San Jose	0.8	0.795	0.6%	681
Chris Wingert	Salt Lake	0.71	0.705	0.5%	611
Drew Moor	Toronto	0.825	0.82	0.5%	679
Collen Warner	Houston	0.798	0.793	0.5%	302
Zach Scott	Seattle	0.794	0.789	0.5%	388
Jordan Harvey	Vancouver	0.747	0.742	0.5%	1034
Atiba Harris	FC Dallas	0.704	0.699	0.5%	635
Ken Tribbett	Philadelphia	0.782	0.778	0.4%	546
Ike Opara	Kansas City	0.768	0.764	0.4%	560
Chris Klute	Portland	0.759	0.756	0.3%	365
Saad Abdul-Salaam	Kansas City	0.759	0.756	0.3%	690
John Stertzer	Salt Lake	0.805	0.802	0.3%	282
Tony Beltran	Salt Lake	0.775	0.772	0.3%	765
Blas Perez	Vancouver	0.676	0.674	0.2%	210
Aaron Kovar	Seattle	0.723	0.721	0.2%	343
Mike Grella	New York	0.77	0.768	0.2%	699
Marco Pappa	Colorado	0.745	0.744	0.1%	396
Jermaine Taylor	Portland	0.794	0.793	0.1%	597
Bobby Shuttleworth	New England	0.607	0.607	0.0%	458
Josh Williams	Toronto	0.795	0.795	0.0%	278
Nuno Coelho	Kansas City	0.8	0.8	0.0%	876
Jake Gleeson	Portland	0.561	0.562	-0.1%	426
Marc Burch	Colorado	0.73	0.73	-0.1%	681
Jonathan Campbell	Chicago	0.789	0.789	-0.1%	577
Soni Mustivar	Kansas City	0.82	0.821	-0.1%	740
Chris Wondolowski	San Jose	0.705	0.706	-0.1%	390
Aaron Maund	Salt Lake	0.776	0.777	-0.1%	518
Steve Clark	Columbus	0.769	0.771	-0.1%	654
Sean Franklin	DC United	0.743	0.744	-0.2%	991
Kevin Molino	Orlando City	0.784	0.786	-0.2%	694
Justen Glad	Salt Lake	0.82	0.823	-0.2%	523
Dominic Oduro	Montreal	0.777	0.779	-0.3%	336
Cristian Techera	Vancouver	0.643	0.646	-0.3%	443
David Bingham	San Jose	0.537	0.541	-0.4%	616
Luciano Acosta	DC United	0.702	0.706	-0.4%	456
Federico Bravo	New York City FC	0.769	0.773	-0.4%	437
Shaun Francis	San Jose	0.706	0.711	-0.5%	632
London Woodberry	New England	0.735	0.741	-0.5%	529
Corey Ashe	Columbus	0.783	0.789	-0.6%	406
Je-Vaughn Watson	New England	0.788	0.794	-0.6%	730
Jalil Anibaba	Houston	0.673	0.679	-0.6%	676
Joe Bendik	Orlando City	0.631	0.637	-0.6%	528
Adrian Winter	Orlando City	0.731	0.738	-0.6%	350
Giles Barnes	Houston	0.682	0.688	-0.6%	371
Victor Cabrera	Montreal	0.807	0.814	-0.6%	664
Andreas Ivanschitz	Seattle	0.661	0.668	-0.7%	679
Matt Hedges	FC Dallas	0.813	0.82	-0.8%	656
Andrew Farrell	New England	0.745	0.753	-0.8%	846
Amadou Dia	Kansas City	0.733	0.742	-0.8%	454
Keegan Rosenberry	Philadelphia	0.718	0.727	-0.9%	1129
Ronald Zubar	New York	0.758	0.767	-0.9%	442
Frank Lampard	New York City FC	0.769	0.778	-1.0%	242
Lucas Ontivero	Montreal	0.733	0.743	-1.0%	221
Kendall Waston	Vancouver	0.77	0.78	-1.0%	582
David Villa	New York City FC	0.71	0.72	-1.0%	597
Kaka	Orlando City	0.696	0.706	-1.0%	401
Walker Zimmerman	FC Dallas	0.776	0.786	-1.0%	772
Mekeil Williams	Colorado	0.74	0.75	-1.1%	746
Zach Loyd	FC Dallas	0.771	0.782	-1.1%	424
Ethan White	New York City FC	0.737	0.748	-1.1%	342
Sal Zizzo	New York	0.732	0.743	-1.1%	925
Hassoun Camara	Montreal	0.757	0.768	-1.1%	477
Tim Parker	Vancouver	0.783	0.795	-1.2%	802
Justin Morrow	Toronto	0.714	0.726	-1.3%	747
Khiry Shelton	New York City FC	0.633	0.646	-1.3%	294
Kevin Doyle	Colorado	0.697	0.711	-1.4%	409
Steven Beitashour	Toronto	0.732	0.745	-1.4%	786
Connor Hallisey	Kansas City	0.688	0.702	-1.4%	336
Sebastian Giovinco	Toronto	0.628	0.643	-1.4%	433
Khaly Thiam	Chicago	0.761	0.776	-1.5%	297
C.J. Sapong	Philadelphia	0.638	0.653	-1.5%	345
Jason Hernandez	New York City FC	0.822	0.837	-1.5%	762
Sunny	Salt Lake	0.823	0.838	-1.6%	412
Eric Miller	Colorado	0.746	0.762	-1.6%	421
Jimmy Medranda	Kansas City	0.688	0.705	-1.7%	674
Lucas Melano	Portland	0.684	0.702	-1.8%	434
Lawrence Olum	Kansas City	0.792	0.81	-1.8%	566
Cyle Larin	Orlando City	0.7	0.718	-1.8%	203
Richie Marquez	Philadelphia	0.757	0.775	-1.8%	674
Ronald Matarrita	New York City FC	0.748	0.766	-1.8%	848
Rafael Ramos	Orlando City	0.754	0.772	-1.9%	491
Chance Myers	Kansas City	0.749	0.769	-2.0%	331
Shkelzen Gashi	Colorado	0.715	0.735	-2.0%	459
Karl Ouimette	New York	0.722	0.742	-2.0%	266
Rodrigo Ramos	Chicago	0.72	0.741	-2.1%	657
Fabinho	Philadelphia	0.685	0.706	-2.1%	731
Raymon Gaddis	Philadelphia	0.746	0.767	-2.1%	232
Johan Kappelhof	Chicago	0.773	0.795	-2.1%	596
Maxim Tissot	Montreal	0.742	0.763	-2.1%	236
David Ousted	Vancouver	0.599	0.62	-2.2%	680
Josh Saunders	New York City FC	0.74	0.762	-2.2%	787
Jermaine Jones	Colorado	0.736	0.759	-2.3%	375
Kevin Alston	Orlando City	0.715	0.738	-2.3%	439
Fraser Aird	Vancouver	0.709	0.732	-2.3%	515
Johan Venegas	Montreal	0.717	0.741	-2.4%	212
Steve Birnbaum	DC United	0.707	0.731	-2.4%	358
Teal Bunbury	New England	0.674	0.699	-2.4%	442
Chris Rolfe	DC United	0.709	0.734	-2.5%	244
Jose Goncalves	New England	0.756	0.782	-2.6%	679
Damien Perquis	Toronto	0.775	0.801	-2.6%	435
Jack Harrison	New York City FC	0.664	0.69	-2.6%	217
Donny Toia	Montreal	0.724	0.75	-2.6%	315
Harrison Afful	Columbus	0.767	0.795	-2.8%	1068
Jelle Van Damme	L.A. Galaxy	0.724	0.753	-2.9%	747
Chris Duvall	New York	0.705	0.734	-2.9%	532
Kemar Lawrence	New York	0.672	0.701	-2.9%	472
Brek Shea	Orlando City	0.708	0.738	-3.0%	726
Sebastien Le Toux	Philadelphia	0.7	0.73	-3.0%	543
Kelyn Rowe	New England	0.694	0.724	-3.0%	742
Stefan Frei	Seattle	0.634	0.665	-3.1%	596
Bradley Wright-Phillips	New York	0.712	0.743	-3.1%	389
Fanendo Adi	Portland	0.655	0.686	-3.2%	443
Connor Lade	New York	0.709	0.74	-3.2%	601
Taylor Kemp	DC United	0.641	0.674	-3.2%	970
Alex Muyl	New York	0.667	0.7	-3.3%	249
Quincy Amarikwa	San Jose	0.673	0.706	-3.4%	336
Brian Rowe	L.A. Galaxy	0.581	0.615	-3.4%	571
Chris Tierney	New England	0.641	0.676	-3.5%	817
Victor Bernardez	San Jose	0.757	0.792	-3.5%	560
Aurelien Collin	Orlando City	0.695	0.73	-3.5%	423
Ambroise Oyongo	Montreal	0.692	0.728	-3.6%	698
Raul Rodriguez	Houston	0.762	0.798	-3.6%	538
Kekuta Manneh	Vancouver	0.66	0.697	-3.6%	412
Bobby Burling	Colorado	0.712	0.749	-3.8%	274
Michael Harrington	Chicago	0.699	0.739	-4.1%	448
David Horst	Houston	0.712	0.754	-4.2%	496
Dominic Dwyer	Kansas City	0.625	0.668	-4.3%	264
Andrew Wenger	Houston	0.629	0.673	-4.4%	388
Tim Melia	Kansas City	0.573	0.619	-4.6%	609
Nicolas Mezquida	Vancouver	0.712	0.758	-4.6%	292
Antonio Nocerino	Orlando City	0.706	0.754	-4.8%	323
Alvaro Saborio	DC United	0.664	0.711	-4.8%	214
Nick Rimando	Salt Lake	0.59	0.64	-5.0%	505
Brandon Vincent	Chicago	0.616	0.667	-5.0%	438
Jordan Smith	Vancouver	0.683	0.733	-5.1%	454
Luis Solignac	Colorado	0.698	0.752	-5.4%	301
Travis Worra	DC United	0.434	0.489	-5.5%	288
Clint Irwin	Toronto	0.518	0.575	-5.6%	434
Justin Meram	Columbus	0.701	0.76	-5.9%	581
Yura Movsisyan	Salt Lake	0.62	0.68	-6.0%	342
Didier Drogba	Montreal	0.581	0.643	-6.2%	272
Bobby Boswell	DC United	0.66	0.731	-7.1%	538
Tyler Deric	Houston	0.393	0.464	-7.1%	252
Alvas Powell	Portland	0.622	0.695	-7.2%	458
Sean Johnson	Chicago	0.556	0.65	-9.4%	225
Matt Lampson	Chicago	0.584	0.683	-9.9%	255