ASA First Touch: Colorado's waste of resources

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Finally, the Secretary of Defense is home. Though the game ended in the dreaded 0-0 tie, Tim Howard’s debut with the Rapids was surely the biggest storyline of the week. When his signing was originally announced, there was no doubt he would take over immediately as the starter, but it did create a tremor of controversy.  Are the Rapids really best served by changing their goalkeeper after letting in the fewest goals of any team after 16 games?

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Goodbye expected goals, hello expected points!

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An expected goals model frames quite well what everyone knows to be true: that not all goals are created equal. Goals are created from tap-ins and bicycle kicks and all the shots in between, and expected goals allow analysts and fans to quantify the likelihood a shot will go in the net, and therefore the value of a shot. The next logical step in the discussion of goals is to analyze their value. Goals aren't created equal but neither are goals equal. The goal that makes a two goal lead a three goal league does not nearly have the value as that stoppage time goal that captures all three points.

To measure the value of a goal I looked at game states in MLS from 2011 to 2015 and built a series of functions that estimate the expected points for home and away teams given the score of the game and the minute being played. Each of the functions fit tightly with the actual data and had an R squared greater than 85%. The expected points functions look like this for games with a difference of two or less goals.

Pretty graphs after the jump

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ASA First Touch: Second Edition

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This is ASA’s attempt at an ensemble wrap of various things pertaining to US Soccer things over the last week. This is not intended to be a deep retrospective or an overtly granular analytical take. These are quick and hard takes by our first rate crew.

USMNT KNUCKLE SANDWICH

By Jared Young (@jaredeyoung)

The USMNT did not have their best week as they failed to score against both Argentina and Colombia finishing fourth in the Copa America Centenario. The most interesting statistic this week came in the form of an undefined number as the U.S. had a finishing rate against Argentina of 0/0, or something that can’t be expressed numerically. It’s tough to score when you don’t shoot. 

Whenever you finish fourth in a major tournament but don’t score in the final matches you will divide your contingent. Twitter might not be an accurate representation of the USMNT fanbase but it at least offers some data to consider. Many on twitter have been calling for Jurgen Klinsmann’s head despite the overall success of the team in the tournament. But just how divided are fans?

More apologies for JK after the jump.

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MLS Goalkeepers: Putting Their Best Feet Forward

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Today we spell redemption, R. O. N. I mean, M. L. S. Finally, after about ten weeks of alternating between good saves and bonehead plays, a number of goalkeepers have gotten their feet under them. And just because of that, we’re going to look at how good their feet really are. Sure it’s a loose transition, but just take a look at the stats first before you click out of here to go post your favorite starting USMNT XI on SBI.

I was lucky enough to stumble on a site called “ASA” (pronounced, ass-ah, I’m pretty sure) and steal some of their passing stats. (If the format is goofy on your phone, click here.)

More after the jump.

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Ozzie Alonso Is Good Again and Not For The Same Old Reasons

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From 2009-2014 there were few terrifying midfielders as deadly to other opponents and frustrating to opposing supporters as Ozzie Alonso of the Seattle Sounders. Not only did he deliver crunching tackles into attackers but he also pulled away a fair number of them with the ball going the other way. To Seattle, and what they aim to accomplish, he’s been a vital cog.

The last two years have started to point towards a declining if only in terms of the statistics in which he had previously tended to collect. Coupled with that decline of numbers was a rise in fouls committed. These rise in fouls could be attributed to the referees calling him tighter with his noted reputation to be rough and tumble. The other explanation could be him losing a step and becoming slower creating an increase of rash decisions. This is something that we’ve seen with Kyle Beckerman and to a lesser extent Rico Clark. 

More on MLS's one-man wrecking ball after the jump.

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Giovinco Shoots Too Much (No, Seriously, He Does)

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After winning MVP on the back of arguably the greatest offensive season in league history, Sebastian Giovinco is certainly in the running to defend his crown. His 0.96 non-penalty goals and assists per 96 minutes ranks 6th in the league among players with at least 600 minutes. The Atomic Ant has constituted nearly all of Toronto FC’s attack this season, scoring or assisting on all but one of his club’s 14 goals. There is one aspect of his game, however, that is holding his team back: the man loves to shoot from just about anywhere on the field. TFC have seen few returns from Giovinco’s predilection for long shots - he’s only scored once in 50 attempts from outside the box.

Despite Giovinco’s best efforts, TFC’s overall attack has underwhelmed. They currently rank 11th in MLS with 1.36 xG per game. This mark, combined with their vastly improved defense, will surely get them into the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference but won’t help them meet their loftier ambitions. If they truly want to become MLS Cup or Supporters Shield contenders (which many pundits tipped them for during preseason) they’ll need to drastically improve their offensive output after the Copa America break. That improvement starts with Giovinco’s shot quality.

More after the jump.

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ASA After Dark: A Running Conversation of #SKCvDCU

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Hey everybody (I'm really speaking to just you)! this is incredibly last minute but with the game delay rather than trying to filter out the mass of tweets from your 1,000 closest friends instead join us at 9PM EST for a running conversation of the game. Where we will are guaranteed to mock and ridicule coaches, players, referees and general food decisions! 

Be there or ... don't. Scroll down below the big mountain to see the chat.

Live Blog ASA after dark: DCU@SKC
 

Why the West is better than the East: they take better (but fewer) shots

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About two weeks ago James Yorke of Statsbomb wrote an end of season review for the 2015/2016 Premier League where he outlined a few shot and conversion figures. I found these figures intriguing and decided to use the same process to evaluate the MLS and more specifically if there are any differences between the Eastern and Western conferences. Before we examine any differences between the two MLS conferences, let’s have a look at the league as a whole.

From 2011 to the current season, the figures match up as follows. Keep in mind that the 2016 season is currently in a busy schedule (I have only been able to factor in games up until and including Sporting Kansas City vs Orlando City on May 15th 2016).   

Table after the jump.

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Why MLS Goalkeeping in 2016 Has Been So Dang Bad

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The slow start for MLS goalkeepers has now dragged into its third month. Some goalkeepers can’t stay healthy and others are being bench simply for not playing well. Some are even resorting to saving shots with their face. “Saves of the Week” highlights are more of a sigh of a relief that the ball didn't trickle in on each shot. It’s getting so bad, field players are being put into goal. Essentially it’s a goalkeeper apocalypse now and it’s safe to say that in three years the landscape is going to look much different. A minority of teams are - or should be - confident in their goalkeeping situation. Most MLS teams are caught in the bind of having a goalkeeper that isn't sinking the ship but they aren't exactly thrilled with, yet have a goalkeeper that they’re reluctant to completely turn the position over to.

Already we've seen eight teams use two goalkeepers this year, only a few of them out of choice instead of having their hand forced. Despite having an incredibly small and quiet fan base, Portland has switched from one international to another, going from Adam Kwarasey to Jake Gleeson. The decision may seem obvious to the dozens of fans but Kwarasey was brought on, in part, to be a big force in the box. Portland is one of the most crossed on teams in MLS and Kwarasey was supposed to be a large answer to that. Admittedly he is strong in the air and while I wouldn't say he’s the best in the league with crosses, it makes sense why Portland liked him. However, when your goalkeeper can only duck under a free kick and mistakes start to pile up, the backup is in a tough spot. While he’s 6’4”, Jake Gleeson doesn't bring the physical presence in the air that Kwarasey does. So now the coaches are weighing two sides of the scale. One on end, Gleeson isn't as good as Kwarasey at certain levels while the other side’s argument is pretty much summed up as “He couldn't do any worse.” When the backup is better than the starter, clearly it’s an easy decision to make. But when you’re dealing with a much different goalkeeper - one that wasn't really in the plans at this time - whose highest level of consistent play is USL, it’s tough to rewrite the game plan.

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