2016 ASA PREVIEW: DC UNITED

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United have the most storied history of teams in MLS, but a lot of change is incoming. 2015 was a solid season for the black and red, but changes need to be made if the team is to be considered a contender again for MLS Cup. My guess is that that the season ahead will be a bit of a struggle as the club looks ahead to a new stadium and a new identity in the coming years.

2015 in review

Last season was an interesting one for United. As evidenced by the season progress in the graphic above, the club hovered around the top of the league standings for the first three quarters of the season, largely on the back of their league-leading 11 victories by one goal. They also had the second fewest wins by 2+ goals, ahead only of cellar-dwellers Chicago and Colorado. Unfortunately for United fans, Ben Olsen’s conservative strategy fell apart at the end of the summer, as DC finished the season with six of their 13 losses coming in the final nine games, culminating in a 0-5 rout in Columbus on the last day of the season. They were ultimately eliminated by the Red Bulls in in the conference semifinals for the second year in a row, losing both legs 0-1.

There are multiple ways to interpret the season; is Olsen the Jose Mourinho of MLS or just afraid of offense? On paper, it seems like he’s working with less than many other playoff teams. Fabian Espindola is the only designated player on the team, and he made just 15 starts last season due to injury and suspension. Chris Rolfe led the team with 10 goals, but no other player had more than five. Though a midseason trade for Alvaro Saborio gave some hope that more offense was coming, it never did. It may not have been pretty (and it certainly wasn’t), but Ben Olsen has shown he can consistently get more out of his team than most MLS coaches. It’s a task he’ll try to replicate in 2016.

More after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: LOS ANGELES GALAXY

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The LA Galaxy had an interesting off-season. It started with the release of Omar Gonzalez and Juninho, followed by the pursuit of Ashley "barely still plays soccer" Cole. The Galaxy took a lot of heat for this pursuit when it was reported they would be using TAM, but anger seems to have dissipated when it was announced that price was closer to 300k. In reality, people should still be getting angry that the Galaxy spent 300k on a 35 year old left back of questionable fitness, but the Galaxy narrative machine is simply too strong for such a reasoned fan reaction. 

The Galaxy further wasted their money on the head scratching signing of Jeff Larentowicz, who demands far more money than he is worth, free agent money on Mike Magee, despite having one of the most promising young talents in the country in Jose Villarreal providing cover at left mid and forward, and finally, paying high dollar for one of the most overrated keepers in MLS history. 

In their frenzy to blow their newly acquired cap space in the most inefficient way possible, the Galaxy actually managed to stumble their way into three key moves. The first was the signing of Emannuel Boateng, a promising young winger who has impressed in preseason. His speed and dribbling ability should offer a new facet to the Galaxy attack, although Sebastian Lletget is still projected as the starting left mid once he recovers from his groin injury.

The second was the use of TAM to acquire Jelle Van Damme from Standard Liege in Belgium. Van Damme is a physical defender who looks to be a real aerial presence and danger on set-pieces, and, for Galaxy fans, it’s best to keep the mind on his talents and not that time he called Oguchi Onyeywu a dirty monkey, which the Galaxy TOTALLY addressed by getting quotes from lots of people not named Jelle Van Damme about how that’s completely in the past.  (Fans somehow bought it because, again, the Galaxy narrative machine is all powerful).

More after the jump

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

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New England continues to thrive with a balanced attacking core which balances veterans with young talent.

Last year the Revs had an expected goal differential (xGD) of 0.11 but a GD of 0.03, which is why they finished lower in the table than many predicted. This was mainly to do with a shaky defense which unperformed their xGA by 0.16 goals a game.

This has a great deal to do with their attacking set-up with less emphasis on midfielders tracking back. New England's attacking posture continues to be most the most aggressive in the league, seeing more possession in the final third than any other team over the last two years. While such a style is fun to watch, it puts enormous amounts of pressure on their center midfielders to absorb pressure, which is partially why Jermaine Jones instantly transformed that team in 2014, providing both defensive cover, and a passing backstop which brought players back into the midfield more often to receive the ball. His importance to the team in 2015 was significantly less, however, and the addition of Gershon Koffie should help to bring back some of the magic of 2014.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: SPORTING KANSAS CITY

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During a span lasting from late April to mid-August, Sporting Kansas City picked up 31 points over 15 games. That tremendous run was highlighted by a 4-0 thrashing of FC Dallas and a gripping 4-3 result over Vancouver. During that stretch, SKC did it all. They put up four goal games. They eked out 1-0 nail biters. They created chances from the middle of the park. They created opportunities from the wings. They looked like a complete team. Sporting KC's form during that stretch is the stuff Supporters' Shields are built on (and the stuff their phenomenal Open Cup run actually was built on).

After a 5-0 home loss to San Jose on August 19th, though, that form began to crumble. The team lost seven of their last 12 games, on their way to a sixth place finish in the West and an exit in the knockout round after a heartbreaking penalty kick loss to eventual champions Portland.

The question is, which Sporting Kansas City side should we expect in 2016? The team that looked like true MLS Cup contenders, or the good, but not great, side we saw at the end of the season?

The answer, like with many questions (“What is the best Muppets movie?” being an obvious exception) probably lies somewhere in the middle of the two options. Using the simple, though by no means definitive, metric of performance relative to expected goals (G – xG), suggests Sporting Kansas City's true form may have been worse than they looked from April to mid-August, and better than they looked from mid-August through October. During the aforementioned 15 game run of mostly impressive performances, SKC over-performed their expected goals by eight goals. This over-performance came from converting a high (though not necessarily unsustainable) 16% of shots into goals. During the mostly dismal stretch of 12 games at the end of the season, they underperformed their expected goals by about five. They converted only 8% of their shots into goals over that part of the season.

This rough analysis, then, suggests Sporting Kansas City last season were neither true championship contenders, nor a side that should've struggled to make the playoffs. Intuitively, that feels about right. Do they have the pieces to make that ascension in 2016?

A look at the roster after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: TORONTO FC

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Toronto FC had one goal in 2015, and that was just make the playoffs. Until that point, in their entire eight year existence TFC had never made it to the playoffs. And after an off season that included bringing in Sebastian Giovinco and Jozy Altidore to the club, making the playoffs was a must. Thankfully, the entry into the post season was expanded from five to six teams in 2015, and TFC managed to squeak themselves in and remove that wretched blemish of having never seen the playoffs from their club record.

In 2014 and 2015, TFC loaded up heavily on offense, bringing in the likes of Altidore, Michael Bradley and Jermaine Defoe to the club. But those transactions cost the Reds some vital balance to the squad and left their defense woefully exposed. All that has changed heading into 2016 as Toronto reloaded their defense this off-season, picking up former Colorado Rapids captain Drew Moor and Steven Beitashour from Vancouver to shore up the backline, added solid MLS veteran Clint Irwin to man the pipes, and picked up former Portland captain Will Johnson to dictate the midfield with Bradley.

The lack of balance from the 2015 Toronto side on defense kept them from making waves in the playoffs or securing a better playoff position. But now with a more balanced roster and excellent leadership to solidify the backline, Toronto's prospects heading into 2016 look incredibly bright. 

A look at the defense after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

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With a cross to through ball ratio of 17-1 in a league where few teams break 5-1, San Jose in 2015 continued their storied tradition of raising their middle finger to modern soccer and losing on their own boring and regressive terms. Tackle, tackle, cross, cross, etc. The reason for this style runs to the core of San Jose's identity as a blue collar club that doesn't seem to put value on creativity or play making. One the most fan maligned players on that club, for instance, is Matias Perez Garcia. Boo! Hiss! Look how terrible this dude is after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: ORLANDO CITY SC

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Orlando City largely exceeded the typical expectations of an expansion team in 2015. The Lions finished in seventh in the East, just five points out of a playoff spot. 33-year old Kaka looked stellar running the show from the midfield, adding seven assists to his nine goals. He finished 16th in expected goals plus expected assists, ahead of well-established playmakers like Lee Nguyen, and Javier Morales (guys who needed no adjustment time to get used to the league). First overall pick Cyle Larin scored 17 goals on 10.5 expected goals on his way to Rookie of the Year honors. Fans showed up in record droves for an expansion team. Overall, their first year in MLS should be certainly be regarded in a positive light.

In spite of these successes, the team did have their problems. Depth, notoriously, is an issue for teams entering the league, and OCSC was no exception. Promising winger Kevin Molino went down in early May with an ACL tear, to be replaced by a combination of cromulent Eric Avila, an out-of-position Darwin Ceren, and Adrian Winter, a Swiss summer signing who spent most of his season getting his MLS legs under him. Young designated player Bryan Rochez spent much of May, June, and July not quite match fit after coming back from the U-20 World Cup in New Zealand late due to visa issues. Brek Shea missed most of the middle of the season with a sports hernia. Ceren missed a few crucial September games with a knee injury. Midfielder Cristian Higuita missed multiple games due to yellow card accumulation. On top of the negative effects of having to give significant minutes to bench-level players- guys like Servando Carrasco, Pedro Ribeiro, and David Mateos- these injuries really hampered the squad's ability to develop consistency.

Slow starts are also frequently an issue for expansion teams, and the Lions experienced some of that, as well. Nine points in their first 10 games dug them into a hole, though they perhaps undeservedly lost some close matches in that span, including a particularly tough one to D.C. United in stoppage time. After the difficult start, the team began to right the ship, buoyed by three wins and two draws in their next five. The rest of the season featured a 1-7-2 stretch and a five game win streak. As should probably be expected for a team new to the league, there were ups and there were downs.

At their best, Orlando City frequently generated chances both from the middle and from out wide. The Kaka to Larin connection led to 3 of Larin's 17 goals, while Carlos Rivas to Larin resulted in 4. City's best wins - 5-2 over Columbus, 4-0 over the Galaxy, 5-2 at Red Bull Arena - featured a good mix of both. At their worst, both facets stalled, and they failed to hold possession and create high quality chances.

A look at the offseason changes and what lies ahead in 2016 after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: NEW YORK CITY FC

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Only one MLS expansion team (Seattle in 2009) since the turn of the millennium has made the playoffs in their first season. Given the tumult that surrounded NYCFC’s existence prior to ever kicking a ball, it always seemed unlikely they would be the second. But expectations for Jason Kreis’ side were high, he didn't live up to them, and so he was dismissed. There have been numerous and significant changes going into the 2016 season, and there can be no question that a significant improvement is expected for the upcoming season. How realistic those expectations are is yet to be seen.

2015 in review

In my 2015 preview for NYCFC I began with a series of questions. The answers to those questions at the end of the season were supposed to determine whether the season was a success or not. As I said at the time, “success in 2015 is unlikely to be measured in team performance, but rather a series of more existential factors.” Let’s see if the answers to those questions give us insight into what happened to the club last season.

1. “Has the city of New York accepted the team?”

This seems to be a fairly resounding “yes.” The average attendance of 29,016 people per game was good for 3rd in the league, despite playing in a baseball stadium that is less than ideal for the beautiful game. Advantage NYCFC.

2. “Has the organization created a more stable front office?”

Conversely, this seems to be a fairly resounding “no.” Kreis went to Manchester to learn from from his superiors, was poised to bring his MLS Cup winning experience to the job, and had over a year to prepare his team and roster. Then he was given unrealistic expectations and was handed a team consisting mostly of cast-offs, misfits, geriatrics, and David Villa. While he certainly wasn’t blameless, he also was far from the only reason why his team didn’t work.

A big part of that is Kreis apparently didn’t have as much control as we (and maybe he) thought he did. We won’t re-hash the Lampard fiasco here, but it became apparent early that he was but the marionette puppet and the Abu Dhabian overlords were actually pulling the strings at NYCFC.* (To add insult to injury, Kreis is now forced to stare longingly on as an assistant to a coach he is far better than.)

More questions after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: HOUSTON DYNAMO

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Maybe Houston is a bottom of the Western Conference barrel team, maybe they’re fighting for the last spot. Not to limit a season or story that has yet to be played out. But there probably isn’t much in the way variance in how this season ends for the boys in Orange. But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves just yet.

2015 in review

The first week of November 2014 saw the Houston Dynamo fully shift into a new direction as just a month prior saw their only manager in franchise history, Dominic Kinnear, leave and return to San Jose. 

President Chris Canetti announced the organization's pursuit of not just a replacement for Kinnear, who was the team’s coach and organizational decision maker, but a new direction, ethos and brand. Matt Jordan was hired away from rival Montreal as the first Technical Director, General Manager and Vice President in Dynamo history.

A month later, Canetti called Owen Coyle, a veteran commander of many English Premier League relegation battles, and handed him the coaching reigns. The Englishman gladly accepted and found himself in new colors, a new country and likely a new definition of heat. 

The question I’ve had since last December is whether or not Coyle is the right man for the job. Jordan was hired with a very pronounced intention to implement use of analytics into the team and organization. Coyle has a past history of grinding out results based upon quantity and volume, which isn’t necessarily a recipe for long term success. But, in fairness he hasn’t had the horses to do much else.

More on 2015 and looking ahead to 2016 after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: REAL SALT LAKE

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The abysmal 2015 season for RSL was predicated on the failure to adapt to a new formation and lack of offensive depth. In Jeff Cassar's second season in charge of RSL, the team managed to compile anemic attacking numbers. Transitioning from a 4-4-2 diamond formation that seemingly defined RSL through the Jason Kreis era, the new shape exposed some players that were previously pivotal components to RSL's consistent success in the past.

Both Kyle Beckerman and Joao Plata were sluggish to figure out how to thrive in a new shape and struggled with their new identity, but for different reasons. As Beckerman ages, the expectation is that his motor will slow, his poor first step and general quickness will get even worse, but his game IQ and game management skills will improve. The issue with the attempted 4-3-3 shape is that the single, central midfielder is burdened with a more intense physical workload because of the vertical space that is now only occupied in front by the central forward in the middle channel. Beckerman struggled with the spatial requirements, his significant numbers have been declining for the past three seasons, and was ultimately exposed in the middle of the park.

Set for another terrorizing season in the final third, Plata came back from being injured during the beginning of the season and never found his feet in the new spacing. Although he seemed to thrive in open space, the lack of connection and compactness saw him struggling on isolated islands through many of his appearances.

Our projections for 2016 after the jump.

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