ASA Podcast XXXIII: The one where we talk Re-Entry Draft

First and foremost, I want to pre-apologize for you having to tolerate terrible audio on the podcast. We've generally had good quality with just a few quirks in the system. This time around my microphone had an issue, and we couldn't figure it out with the limited time that we had to record. Second, because we had limited time to record the podcast feels a bit rushed, and I'm sorry for that. I really wanted to get something together since it'd been a couple weeks since we last recorded, and I felt there were some good topics for us to touch on. Today, we talk Portland, DC United, Seattle, while touching a bit on the Columbus and Sporting KC keeper trades. We roll into the SKC-versus-RSL MLS Cup and just give a few spare thoughts. It's only 30 minutes and I think, despite the short time, we stay on topic and hit a lot of good highlights.

We'll be back after the start of the new year and we'll have our act together then. I still think today's has some pretty good stuff, though!

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/asa-podcast-xxxiii-re-entry-draft-talk.mp3]

MLS Cup Thoughts and General Goalkeeper Roundup

Three things in this post:

1. MLS final 2. Goalkeeper of the Year Award 3. MLS Goalkeeper Final Destination

1. MLS final [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SJq24zFwoQ&w=560&h=315] We were all made aware of the conditions before the game. The ice on the field, the cold temperatures, the effects on the ball... but then again, it's the final in your sport so maybe it's not the best time to come up with excuses.

The final featured two of the three finalists for Goalkeeper of the Year so we should expect an exciting display between both set of posts. This was not the case. Let's walk through the video

  • 0:58 - Nick Rimando makes a half-falling/half-diving save in the twenty-fifth minute. It's enough in his mitts that he can hold it, but he pushes it wide and almost bonks his head.
  • 1:28 - Nielsen gets a little too far under a punch and sends it straight up in the air, almost setting up a gift of a goal.
  • 2:20 - If you notice, this is the third highlight and we're almost through the first half. That might tell you something. Rimando stays alert, and the bouncing ball isn't in complete control of Dwyer. It's a needed save but not that tough. Rimando has time to get there and Dwyer has a limited shooting angle on goal.
  • 2:40 - Start of the second half sees CJ Sapong with the ball in front of goal yet again. Rimando gets caught going the wrong way when Sapong cuts off the cross. He tries to scramble to the post but luckily (for Rimando) the shot skies over.
  • 3:25 - RSL gets the first goal of the game from a nice no-look-pass from Beckerman to Sabario who chests then volleys it home. But check out Nielsen's starting position on the shot. Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 12.30.50 PM So far from the line! He could have chipped him if he tried (foreshadowing, wooOOoo!). Sabario takes the trap and Nielsen (who starts calling for a handball) is so far from the line he can't get into position well enough (notice the green triangles below). If he's closer to the line he can get into position better and he'll have more time to react, likely making the save.

Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 12.26.32 PM

Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 12.26.38 PM

  • 4:50 - Beckerman takes a shot from distance. On the replay (5:12), check out Nielsen's left foot: cemented into the ground. His right foot does all the moving. This is not good. Just turning your body to make a save really limits the distance you can cover. A quicker shuffle to Nielsen's left can get a hand on that shot.
  • 5:25 - Possibly the biggest "LOL" of the match. Nielsen is so far off his line that the most casual chip almost beats him. The ball doesn't even clear the crossbar, if that tells you how non-chalant the chip was. Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 12.59.41 PM Nielsen turns around, surprised the ball is still in play, chases it out and eats snow hard. Woof.
  • 6:40 - SKC equalizes with a questionably fair header...Rimando bounces over but can't make the extension.

    Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 1.03.38 PM

  • 7:20 - Ninety-third minute and Rimando makes the "Allstate Good Hands Save of the Match". A simple tip over from a blast eight yards out.
  • 7:50 - Sapong with another chance while being mauled.
  • 8:25 - I'll just leave this picture to sum up the events here:Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 2.44.10 AM
  • Apparently nothing happened for the next fifteen minutes and the penalties ensue. Here are the tendancies for Nielsen and Rimando:Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 1.19.58 PM The "n's" and "y's" are if the keepers guessed the correct way or not. A "y" means yes he did, obviously, and the asterisks mean that while he guessed correctly the ball missed the goal frame. The green represents all the times the shooter did not score (after five rounds it was 3-3, three reds each). Both goalkeepers guessed the right way four of the ten times. The last two columns are where the keepers were guessing. Rimando was 5-2-3 (left-middle-right) and Nielsen was 6-0-4. So if you needed any more proof that shootouts are more determined by the shooters than goalkeeper then... well I don't know. This games looks pretty clear to me. Nielsen is painted as the shootout hero but almost has the exact same stats as Rimando, not to mention all his follies from the run of play. Also he's about five feet off his line on the eighth-round shot. (I know the ball is well-past kicked at this point, but he was in the process of planting his foot so it was blurry. Also balls kicked travel faster than feet move.)Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 2.34.30 AM

At least it was a fun game. We can all agree on that.

2. Goalkeeper of the Year Award

If you're not going to assign numbers to winning an award then you basically can give it to whomever you want. Call it heart, call it leadership... whatever. Everyone has highlights/lowlights that anyone can recall, but you can't give a season award off one event. Complimenting a player with the title of "best" over a year's play implies they affected their team in the most positive manner for the entire season. If you're not using some numerical attribute to rank goalkeepers, I can't convince you that Rimando was the best. But coming from someone who has watched A LOT of film, I know he was and I quantified it. If you want to disagree, you have to have numbers somehow, or else you're just saying "Nu uh. You're wrong." I know I haven't made my stats extremely transparent. And, yes, I know they're not completely finished at this point (believe me I would have loved to finish it if I could have), but it's better than the current alternative of either blasting Ricketts for not being able to hold a ball (which people can only remember this specifically happening a handful of times) or praising Ricketts for being the best goalkeeper in the league because they think they saw his name in the Save of the Week a lot.

I'll take it a step further, there's a reason why a bunch of goalkeepers end up with very similar stats at the end of the year: current goalkeeping stats are too simple and don't gauge anything of real value. Isn't it weird that Jimmy Nielsen had a phenomenal GAA (.88) and an average save percentage (68)? Was Nielsen only getting long-range bombs that he struggled with, or did he do a great job with only facing 1-v-1s? These stats don't tell us anything.

3. MLS Goalkeeper Final Destination

All that to say, the end of the season is nigh, and thus the goalkeeper shuffle begins! Actually it's entirely less exciting than that, but I needed to spice it up a bit. Here's a team-by-team guide. I know some teams (FC Dallas, ahem) have youngsters in USYNT camps so I'm putting a minimum requirement of being 18 years old to make any mention. (Because I think we all remember what we were like at 17, so let's not add anymore pressure to them.) I also included potential homegrowns just for fun.

Here are some reserve league stats. I just tallied minutes and games played. (Paolo Tornaghi played 765 minutes in nine games.) I only marked minutes played at 45 or 90 because, come on, it's the reserve league. I didn't even bother with goals allowed because I didn't want to fool you with misleading stats.

Screen Shot 2013-12-07 at 11.13.32 PM

Chicago Fire

Starter:Sean Johnson (23) Back Up: Paolo Tornaghi (25) In Reserve: Alec Kann (24)

We all know Sean Johnson, blah blah blah. Tornaghi played six times for Chicago (not great, not awful) but did not get re-signed. Kann sat the bench a handful of times and being two years out from Furman has yet to play an official match (from what I can find) but did get five reserve matches.

Outlook: Johnson will likely have at least one more year in the MLS but a transfer to another league is definitely in the cards. Or perhaps that is just the outrageous expectations from the media. Kann has some promise but look for Chicago to sign a late 20s veteran as backup for some more stability and fill Tornaghi's void.

Chivas USA

Starter:Dan Kennedy (31) Back Up: Tim Melia (26) In Reserve: Pat McLain (25), Jake McGuire (19)

Kennedy matched his age with his games played at 31 but honestly he had a noticeable drop off this year. McLain and Melia both played two games this season to about the skill of a backup would be. Freshman McGuire had a good season at Tulsa.

Outlook: It depends a lot on Chivas' outlook. If they're content with Kennedy they'll sign another backup or snag a young goalie in the Superdraft. If they're worried about Kennedy, which they honestly should be, they bring in some competition for him. McLain should see some reserve league action at another club.

Colorado Rapids

Starter:Clint Irwin (24) Back Up: Matt Pickens (31) In Reserve: Steward Ceus (26), Andrew Epstein (17)

Wow what a weird season. Apparent starter, Matt Pickens, fractures his arm second game of the season and Clint Irwin has such a good year that "fear the beard" is starting to sound kinda weird. Ceus started the opener but let a ball bounce over his head into the goal (oh it's much worse than it sounds). I did include Epstein despite being sub-18 because he did get one reserve game. He is a freshman at Stanford.

Outlook: I wouldn't be surprised if they stick with this batting order. I don't think any teams are impressed with Pickens, which is unfortunate because he was pretty decent. Colorado has no plans for Ceus, I'm sure. Also he was not re-signed so I'm pretty confident in this assumption.

Columbus Crew

Starter:Andy Gruenebaum (30) Back Up: Matt Lampson (24) In Reserve: Daniel Withrow (23)

Another team with an injured goalie position. Gruenebaum started 21 games (and played excellent) but hip problems held him out for the back half. Lampson started 13 games and did around the "eh" level. Withrow made the bench nine times.

Outlook: Columbus signed Brad Stuver in the waiver draft so now Columbus has three goalkeepers from 22-24. Of course Lampson has the experience but I could see them all seeing bench time behind a healthy Gruenebaum. If Gruenebaum does stay healthy, he will start. I doubt Columbus will ship him because Lampson and company aren't quite there and the Hebrew Hammer still has some gas in the tank. But it's all centered around Gruenebaum's health. If he's not 100% going into the season, I could see Columbus making a move like Galaxy did with Penedo.

D.C. United

Starter:Bill Hamid (23) Back Up: Joe Willis (25) In Reserve: Andrew Dykstra (27)

Hamid made great saves and awful mistakes but (apparently) showed enough potential to get some NT call ups. Willis saw nine games with Hamid's in and outs. Dykstra is on loan in Richmond but he's as reliable as can be.

Outlook: The situation with Willis is interesting because typically a 25 year old who shows he can play at the MLS level would look to move out from second string but I think Hamid won't be in D.C. for too long. So if Willis sticks around he could be starting in the MLS at 26, 27, which isn't a bad deal. For a goaltender who skipped college to go pro, Hamid will surely scoot in a few years to a better. Willis will likely sit for another year and then be given a chance to start in the future. Dykstra might stick around but he's another great backup so a team might try to steal him for a year.

FC Dallas

Starter:Raul Fernandez (28) Back Up: Chris Seitz (26) In Reserve: Richard Sanchez (19), Kyle Zobeck (23), Jesse Gonzalez (18)

You'd think losing the one of the best goalkeepers in MLS history would be a sign of a rebuilding year for FC Dallas but this is easily the strongest goalkeeping core in the MLS. Fernandez, the starter for Peru's national team, was in the top five for most goalkeeping discussions. Seitz is the best backup in the league. And of course we have the young Richard Sanchez who shined during his loan to Fort Lauderdale. Zobeck, a first year out of Valparaiso, sat the bench for ten times for the Burn [sic] and while he never saw the field with the senior team, he did finished well in the reserve league. I can't find anything substantial on Gonzalez outside that he does appear to exist (sorry Jesse).

Outlook: Fernandez was great in the midst of a not so great year from FC Dallas. I think Seitz could start at a handful of clubs and with Sanchez coming up in the ranks, it wouldn't surprise me to see Seitz not in the Dallas stripes. For those that are calling Sanchez's name, MacMath has a very similar path to the MLS and I think starting at such a young age (20, 21) really stunted him. So no need to rush it with Sanchez. This leaves Zobeck under Sanchez in the pecking order. I expect nothing to happen for 2014 but then see Seitz exit before 2015.

Houston Dynamo

Starter:Tally Hall (28) Back Up: Tyler Deric (25) In Reserve: Erich Marscheider (20)

You may remember Tally Hall's few call ups to the national team this year. (Canada in January and the Germany-Belgium series, if I'm remembering correctly.) Although he didn't get playing time it's still a pretty nice honor. Houston bounced between Deric and Marscheider for sitting the bench and reserve time.

Outlook: Houston looks pretty content with their situation. Deric has five years on Marschy but with the constant switching it almost implies that Houston has more invested in Marschskis. Houston may sign Notre Dame senior Patrick Wall to a homegrown contract. Other than that option, I wouldn't expect anything else.

LA Galaxy

Starter:Carlo Cudicini (40) / Jamie Penedo (32) Back Up: Brian Rowe (25) In Reserve: Brian Perk (24)

What a year for the Galaxy. Fans quickly lambasted Cudicini (141 appearances with Chelsea, don't forget) for easy goals. Eventually Penedo was brought in while Rowe saw a couple of games on the field before Penedo took over completely. The Brians spent some time in the reserve league as well. And Will Hesmer almost was in the picture to, for those who were paying attention to the re-entry draft.

Outlook: Well Cudicini is surely done starting. Penedo's contract only goes through 2014 so I think LAG is trying to groom Rowe for 2015. Perk is a big question mark, however. I'm not sure what is going to become of him. But all-in-all LAG look set in goal moving forward.

Montreal Impact

Starter:Troy Perkins (32) Back Up: Evan Bush (27) In Reserve: Maxime Crépeau (19), Dominic Provost (20), Samuel Dufort (19)

Perkins had a very underrated year and Bush plays the backup role fine enough. Maxime looked really bad in these highlights from over a year ago. I can't find anything that says Provost and Dufort has been with the Canadian YNT (all three are Canadian).

Outlook: Perkins doesn't look like slowing down but Bush isn't going to compete for his spot. The other three worry me because while Montreal might like to get Canadians on their team for their fan base, I don't think any of these three are the answer. I would love to be wrong on this, though.

New England Revolution

Starter:Matt Reis (38) / Bobby Shuttleworth (26) Back Up: (above) In Reserve: Luis Soffner (23)

Another club with an interesting goalkeeper situation. Reis and Shuttleworth battle for the spot all season (with 12 and 23 games played, respectively). Soffner only made the bench three times early in the season. Reis gets the start in the playoffs and is a part of one of more bizarre plays I've ever seen. He comes out of his box to collect a long ball, volleys it over someone, chests it, and as he's about to pass it out he tears his quad and is unable to finish the game. Andrew Farrell finishes in his stead.

Outlook: Well currently not so much. Shuttleworth is the only goalkeeper under contract for the Revolution. Both Soffner and Reis's options weren't picked up by the Revolution so they have some holes to fill. I'm still a little confused on how confident Jay Heaps is with Shuttleworth (think Jim and Pam will-they-won't-they drama). My guess is they try for a better option but if nothing is cheaply available they'll go with Shuttleworth.

New York Red Bulls

Starter:Luis Robles (29) Back Up: Ryan Meara (23) In Reserve: Kevin Hartman (39), Santiago Castano (18), Keith Cardona (21)

Robles, who was in the running for goalkeeper of the year for some reason, played every MLS minute while Castano and Meara traded off back up roles mid way through the season. Hartman retired after two reserve games and Cardona is currently not starting at Maryland as a junior.

Outlook: Similar to Los Angeles, New York seems invested in Meara and (clearly) willing to ride the Robles train as long as they can. Castano also might figure into the picture as he leads the US U20s goalkeeping pool at the moment. Cardona has a long road to recovery.

Philadelphia Union

Starter:Zac MacMath (22) Back Up: Chris Konopka (28), Oka Nikolov (39) In Reserve: Zack Steffen (18)

MacMath played every minute in league play. Konopka was traded to Toronto in September and Old Man Oka sat the bench for the last ten games. Steffen finished his senior year at Akron, helping them get to the second round. Nikolov's contract wasn't picked up so now MacMath sits alone in Philadelphia.

Outlook: I really wish Philadelphia would give MacMath some competition if not let him sit for a bit. Putting someone through the fire early is such a high risk scenario. Look for Philly to pick up a goalie in the re-entry draft and another Joe before the start of next season as they try to see what MacMath can do in 2014.

Portland Timbers

Starter:Donovan Ricketts (36) Back Up: Milos Kocic (28) In Reserve: Jake Gleeson (23), David Meves (23), Blake Hylen (23), Justin Baarts (23)

Ugh okay besides that, Kocic played two games for Portland and there are a plethora of twenty-three year old goalkeepers in Portland. Not exactly sure what's going on here but Gleeson seems to have the lead. Although New Zealand is not the most highly regarded international squad, he still has six caps as a 23 year old.

Outlook: Portland hasn't shown consistency in their short history with goalkeepers and I don't think this will change. Because of this, I will make a not-so-bold prediction: Ricketts to starts next season but by the end of 2014 things will look disordered. Kocic won't be any better of an option. They'll want to stick with Gleeson but he'll still have some kinks to iron out and there won't be another option mid-season. So 2014 will be a disarray in the back with a huge question mark going into 2015.

Real Salt Lake

Starter:Nick Rimando (34) Back Up: Jeff Attinella (25) In Reserve: Josh Saunders (32), Eduardo Fernández (20)

Yes, you could say Rimando was robbed with a +10 GSAR on the year. I think most people forget that Attinella is a success story from the NASL. Only 25, he is in a good position to start in the MLS before 30. Fernandez will be a success but his time is still 2-3 years away. And of course we have the man who popularized the Saundersault.

Outlook: Saunders will likely continue to bounce around and RSL will stick with Rimando until he's dust. The future is in decent hands with Attinella and Fernandez.

San Jose Earthquakes

Starter:Jon Busch (37) Back Up: David Bingham (24) In Reserve: Evan Newton (25)

Busch is 37?? Wow. Bingham played four games (3 CONCACAF CL games) including the last game of the season.

Outlook: Bingham is ready to go and will be starting by the end of 2014. Journeyman Busch will be on his way out but should still get a good portion of the games. Newton was not resigned.

Seattle Sounders

Starter:Michael Gspurning (32) Back Up: Andrew Weber (30) / Marcus Hahnemann (40) In Reserve: Josh Ford (26), Earl Edwards (21), Zac Lubin (24)

Gspurning did better than most think: not awful but the door is definitely open. Hahnemann did very well coming off the bench (six matches, including playoffs), Weber did alright on a reverse loan (three matches) and Ford was useless with an injury.

Outlook: If there's one club that needs competition at the goalkeeping spot it's Seattle. I'd say Seattle brings in not a backup but someone to push Gspurning for the starting spot. Hahnemann plays one more year then retires. Perhaps they sign Doug Herrick from the pool. Edwards might sign a homegrown contract coming out of UCLA. Who is Zac Lubin?

Sporting Kansas City

Starter:Jimmy Nielsen (36) Back Up: Eric Kronberg (30) In Reserve: Jon Kempin (20)

Nielsen plays every game. Since 2006, Kronberg has had 13 apperances (four this year in Champions League play). Jon Kempin received nine appearances on his loan to Orlando City but never established consistent playing time.

Outlook: Nielsen salvages his reptuation by saving some penalty kicks but make no mistake he needs to be replaced. I would love to say Kansas City would be trying to move forward but I'm sure they are content with the Danish goalkeeper in the back. He will likely take a Cudicini-path soon enough. Kronberg looked really warm on the celebration stage at the final and Kempin might go on loan again.

Toronto FC

Starter:Joe Bendik (24) Back Up: Stefan Frei (27) In Reserve: Quillian Roberts (19), Garret Cypus (21), Angelo Cavalluzzo (20), Chad Bush (19)

Toronto traded for Bendik right at the end of 2012 so even though Frei was coming back from an injury they wanted to be set in the goal. As TFC raced towards the bottom of the table, Bendik did very well in goal. Frei played late in the season to give him some marketability, I assume. Roberts made the bench a few times.

Outlook: Toronto traded for Chris Konopka from Philadelphia so it is almost positive that Frei is on his way out. Konopka should be challenged by Roberts for the bench spot but the real question is how long Bendik stays in Toronto. If he continues his streak, he'll be a top goalkeeper in 2014 but will he be getting enough exposure to move to a higher league?

Vancouver Whitecaps

Starter:Joe Cannon (38) / Brad Knighton (28) / David Ousted (28) Back Up: (above) In Reserve: Simon Thomas (23), Callum Irving (20), Sean Melvin (19)

Who wasn't a starter/back up this year in Vancouver? First Cannon played ten games, then Knighton played eleven games, then Ousted finished the season with thirteen. Thomas actually spent more time on the bench for Canada's National Team than he did for Vancouver, if that tells you anything about Canada's situation.

Outlook: I don't think even Vancouver knows. Cannon and Knighton are out, we know that, but Ousted didn't exactly ring confidence. But I imagine they'll try Ousted at the start of the year and go from there.

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Goalkeepers able to move to a better league in the next couple years: Sean Johnson (CHC), Bill Hamid (DCU), Joe Bendik (TOR)

Second string goalkeepers that are able to start in the MLS now: Matt Pickens (CLR), Joe Willis (DCU), Chris Seitz (FCD), Brian Rowe (LAG), David Bingham (SJ), Stefan Frei (TOR)

Backups that need some more time but could start in the future: Alec Kann (CHC), Brian Perk (LAG), Ryan Meara (NYRB), Santiago Castano (NYRB), Eduardo Fernandez (RSL), Jon Kempin (SKC)

Free Agents (best to worst in my opinion): Pat McLain, Luis Soffner, Evan Newton, Doug Herrick, Brad Knighton, Paolo Tornaghi, Joe Cannon, Evan Bush, Matt Reis, Oka Nikolov

Teams that could really use another potential starter: Chivas, Vancouver, Sporting Kansas City, San Jose, Portland, Seattle, Philadelphia

Teams looking to pick up a goalkeeper in the SuperDraft: Vancouver, Philadelphia, New England

Collegiate goalkeepers that might make the jump: Andre Blake (Connecticut), Patrick Wall (Notre Dame), John McCarthy (La Salle), Spencer Richey (Washington), Earl Edwards (UCLA), Adam Grinwis (Michigan), Omar Zeeni (UC Davis), Phil Saunders (UMBC), Alex Bono (Syracuse)

World Cup Draws: United States, Mexico, and the Netherlands

Of those three teams, it's the United States's draw that incites the least of my frustration.

Search for "world cup draw" on Google, and you'll find mostly opinions that the U.S. Mens National Team found itself in the group of death, as if there can only be one. But as many pointed out before the draw, the USMNT was not likely to get into an easier group. Coming from Pot 3, the USMNT was at a disadvantage already due to being in the weakest pot. Using ratings from Nate Silver's Soccer Power Index (SPI), here are the average ratings by each of the four pots:

Pot Rating Standard Dev.
1 85.9 5.0
4 79.7 3.3
2 76.2 8.0
3 73.7 3.5

Since teams from the same pot could not meet in the group stage, the USMNT couldn't draw any teams from its own pot. Thus it automatically got zero chance at playing some of the weaker teams in the opening round, leaving us praying for one of Switzerland or Belgium from the ranked Pot 1 to ease our path to glory (no such luck).  Additionally, all Pot 3 teams got a slightly higher chance of meeting two European teams in the group stages due to that additional UEFA team moving from Pot 4 to Pot 2. Pot 3 teams eluding a European team from Pot 1 may still have gotten Italy or England (I can't tell which one) from Pot 2. Costa Rica drew the short straw on that one.

If you look at Nate Silver's  ratings, you'll notice that most Pot 3 teams got pretty raw deals. Below are the chances that each team advances to the knockout round, as well as the average ratings for the other teams in their respective groups. Pot 3 teams are bold and italicized, and data came from Silver's own model.

Team Difficulty Knockout   Team Difficulty Knockout
Australia 86.6 2.0%   Italy 81.0 44.2%
Algeria 77.1 11.4%   Mexico 78.9 45.3%
Iran 81.8 18.9%   Ivory Coast 78.7 49.8%
Honduras 81.2 20.4%   Bosnia 79.3 52.6%
Cameroon 80.6 22.3%   England 80.3 57.5%
Japan 80.4 24.2%   Ecuador 78.2 64.7%
Costa Rica 82.2 28.8%   Uruguay 79.6 69.5%
Ghana 81.9 28.8%   Russia 71.6 72.6%
Nigeria 80.6 31.2%   Chile 79.9 74.3%
Croatia 79.7 32.9%   France 77.3 78.4%
Switzerland 79.7 36.5%   Belgium 71.1 79.1%
South Korea 73.8 36.9%   Spain 79.4 82.8%
United States 81.2 39.3%   Colombia 76.2 86.5%
Portugal 81.1 39.3%   Germany 78.0 91.8%
Greece 79.3 39.5%   Argentina 75.6 97.3%
Netherlands 81.3 41.0%   Brazil 73.9 99.6%

Relative to its stature in the world---17th best according to the SPI---the United States drew arguably the second-hardest group of opponents, second only to the Netherlands*. Though the USMNT may be in a group of death, the Netherlands are definitely in the group of death---and on the outside looking in. But it's our neighbor to the south that draws the most frustration. In terms of average group difficulty, the only North American side to get a relatively decent draw was Mexico. Mexico will just have to be better than Croatia and Cameroon in the group stage. Even after pissing all over themselves in CONCACAF qualifying, the Mexicans now have the easiest path of any Pot 3 team.

The Dutch side is the ninth-best in the tournament by the SPI, and yet it drew two of the best teams in the Cup, Chile and Spain. The Oranje, the team of my birth country, have been left sadly with just a 41-percent chance at making the knockout stage. The Mexican side is ranked 26th in the world, finished fourth in qualifying, and has a better chance to advance than the Netherlands.

Oh, FIFA.

*While Australia, Iran and Costa Rica all drew harder opponents on average than the USMNT, they were not as highly ranked themselves as the USMNT. In other words, it was expected that worse teams would get tougher opponents because they don't get to play themselves.

ASA Podcast - XXXI: The One Where We Talk MLS Cup

MLS Cup, if you hadn't heard, is this weekend and the World Cup draw today (11:30 EST, ESPN) there is a bit to talk about this week on the podcast. We go over the probabilities of the draw and how that works and then we break down both RSL and Sporting KC in this weekends Cup Finale. Have a listen, I'm sure you'll enjoy. [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/asa-podcast-e28093-xxxi_-the-one-where-we.mp3]

Sporting exceptional at home; RSL lame on the road

It is true that Sporting has had trouble getting points at home. SKC earned 30 points at Sporting Park this year, good for 13th in a league of 19 teams. Based on that information alone, some will argue that Sporting is not a good home team. One of those people is Simon Borg, who justifies his viewpoint by pointing out that SKC lost five times at home, as though that matters. It doesn't.

I've shown that past points simply don't correlate well to future points. With information like shot ratios and expected goal differentials (xGD), points are essentially a meaningless indicator of team ability---or at the very least, a meaningless predictor. I see "predictor" and "indicator" as near-synonyms in this instance, but you may not. Regardless, Sporting's home points total should not even be considered in the discussion of who will win on Saturday. Why not? In addition to out-shooting its opponents in every single home game this season, here is how SKC did relative to the league in xGD this season:

Team GF GA GD xGF xGA xGD "Luck"
LA 32 8 24 32.1 11.0 21.1 2.9
SKC 29 15 14 28.7 11.6 17.1 -3.1
PHI 23 17 6 28.8 16.0 12.8 -6.8
NYRB 32 15 17 26.8 15.4 11.4 5.6
SEA 28 15 13 26.5 15.6 10.9 2.1
COL 28 16 12 25.3 14.5 10.7 1.3
HOU 23 16 7 28.0 18.9 9.1 -2.1
RSL 31 16 15 24.6 16.4 8.2 6.8
CHI 28 19 9 27.0 19.4 7.6 1.4
SJ 23 13 10 28.8 21.2 7.6 2.4
POR 28 11 17 23.9 16.6 7.2 9.8
CLB 19 13 6 25.6 18.8 6.8 -0.8
NE 29 15 14 22.2 17.4 4.8 9.2
MTL 31 19 12 25.1 20.5 4.6 7.4
FCD 28 21 7 24.2 19.8 4.4 2.6
VAN 32 18 14 23.7 19.5 4.2 9.8
DCU 16 27 -11 23.5 21.3 2.2 -13.2
TOR 22 21 1 18.5 19.1 -0.6 1.6
CHV 16 28 -12 18.9 26.0 -7.1 -4.9

SKC has a decent goal differential at home, but more importantly, it has the second-best expected goal differential at home. xGD is an excellent predictor of future success, and a better indication in my mind of true team skill.

Borg goes on to talk about the "road warriors" from Salt Lake City:

"They love playing on the road. Playing at home is too much pressure; they do it better when they're away from home."

No team is better on the road than at home, but whatever. RSL did tie for third in MLS this season with 22 away points earned, but again, we don't care. RSL out-shot it opponents in just five of 17 road games (29.4%), and, well this:

Team GF GA GD xGF xGA xGD "Luck"
SKC 16 15 1 19.3 18.2 1.1 -0.1
SJ 11 29 -18 20.5 21.3 -0.8 -17.2
LA 20 30 -10 18.5 20.2 -1.7 -8.3
FCD 18 28 -10 19.9 23.6 -3.7 -6.3
HOU 17 23 -6 21.7 25.4 -3.8 -2.2
POR 25 22 3 18.9 23.5 -4.6 7.6
COL 15 22 -7 19.9 24.9 -5.1 -1.9
NYRB 24 24 0 19.5 25.6 -6.1 6.1
PHI 19 26 -7 19.4 26.7 -7.3 0.3
NE 19 21 -2 16.1 23.7 -7.6 5.6
CLB 22 33 -11 17.1 26.0 -8.9 -2.1
SEA 11 27 -16 17.9 27.2 -9.4 -6.6
CHI 18 30 -12 20.5 30.0 -9.5 -2.5
MTL 19 29 -10 16.1 26.0 -9.9 -0.1
VAN 21 23 -2 16.6 27.7 -11.0 9.0
TOR 6 25 -19 15.9 27.3 -11.4 -7.6
RSL 25 25 0 17.4 29.7 -12.3 12.3
DCU 5 28 -23 11.9 26.2 -14.3 -8.7
CHV 12 38 -26 12.0 28.9 -16.9 -9.1

Real Salt Lake finished 17th in the league in expected goal differential on the road. Ouch. The fact that their actual goal differential was tied for third in MLS means very little, since xGD makes for a much better Nostradamus.

Unless expected goal differential completely falls apart in home-away splits---which is not likely---we can conclude that Sporting is a good home team, and RSL is a bad away team.

Our current model gives Sporting 72 percent probability of a win. An xGD model---which we don't use yet because we only have one season of data---increases those chances to 88 percent. There is a lot of evidence that Sporting is the better team, and that home field advantage still applies to them. Regardless of Saturday's outcome, those two statements are still well supported.

*Note that these goal statistics do not include own goals, which is why my figures may differ slightly from those found at other sites. 

MLS Cup: Sporting KC vs. Real Salt Lake...It's Finally Here

I wish I could write this long-winded and amazingly-thought-out post. This just won't be the case. I'm mostly missing the vocabulary to mark the occasion of the biggest match of the American soccer season. Without really prolonging the post or trying to set it up by way of a specific perspective: I was digging around through Squawka and Whoscored data in preparation for tonight's podcast and found some things that I thought were interesting, and I thought that I would share them with you. First thought: Sporting Kansas City pretty much owns the defensive metric counting stats that are available to us, as well as those that I took the time to put together. They rank first in defensive actions recorded, which is simply blocked shots, interceptions and clearances. There isn't anything that I've seen or read that correlates any of these numbers to being a successful team in terms of collecting points.

That being said, it's reasonable to suspect that their ability to prevent shots and produce them at a higher ratio has something to do with these defensive statistics. I personally would associate SKC's shot ratios with two specific abilities : their possession---which we will get in first---and then prevention.

Possession doesn't tell us whether or not a club is successful, but we have mentioned that it mostly just explains how they going about being successful. Sure, a lot of people take it that when a team is holding onto the ball, that reduces its own opportunities to score. That doesn't mean that they aren't reducing their opponents' opportunities, though. In fact a club that holds on to the ball and makes a lot of successful passes does exactly that.

However, that doesn't necessarily mean they are good at defense or preventing the opposition from generating shots. It just means that they might potentially reduce the number of chances that an opposing team gets. Again, that doesn't necessarily correlate to earning points, but that does lead to us to the topic of prevention. Sporting is dominant in MLS with intercepting and clearing balls from their attacking third. Controlling possession 58% of the time at home and completing 81% of their passes, they are mitigating opponents' opportunities, and the same can be said with clearing balls off the backline and preventing the ball from coming into the attacking third at all.

Clearing the ball obviously presents the chance that the open play becomes "reset". That the pressure applied by the opposing attack has to reposition themselves in an manner that would create another chance against the goal. Sometimes that happens quickly sometimes it leads to a turnover in possession.

I'd really like to know the percentage of how many times a team got the ball into the final third and then created a shot. I suspect that Sporting Kansas City isn't necessarily any better than any other team at actually stopping a team from creating chances once they get into the attacking third. Possibly it just limits those entries.

However, if a team isn't getting many opportunities to possess the ball, and their chances of breaking into the attacking third are repelled by clearances, it has to limit the creation of shots. This is my theory on how Sporting KC has produced that positive shot ratio and why their defensive counting stats matter. I don't really know if any of it actually holds up.

Second Thought: Real Salt Lake is basically the best litmus test for this theory. A club that has superior passing talent, that also maintains the ability to possess the ball, and doesn't inadvertently turn it over with the frequency that others do.

Again, for like the thousandth time, this doesn't relate to obtaining points. However, it maybe the specific method they go about for shot creation which does lend itself as predictor. Creating shots is the name of the game, and RSL is one of the better road teams in MLS who matches up well with SKC in that regard.

If SKC's deterrence method for shots is more about mitigation of possession to specific areas of the pitch which potentially lends itself to preventing shots, then the counter is that RSL is third in away goals from outside the box with 4 converted shots by way of 74 shots.

RSL is one of the better teams at converting from distance---and while that could be as much by the way of luck as it could be by the talent of the line-ups they've fielded---the importance of this is that they aren't afraid of taking attempts from distance, and that maybe one of the best ways for them to manage a goal against SKC.

That leads into this final thought:

Looking at shots, it's a duh statement to say that SKC creates a lot of them. Unfortunately for Real Salt Lake, Sporting creates even more at home than what it normally creates on the road. What is more surprising, though, is that of those shots, the majority come from outside of the 18 yard box.

Why would it matter if a team creates more shots from a far than closer to the box? The obvious answer is that it decreases the probability of a goal scoring opportunity. Taking shots is important, regardless of where it's taken from. Without the shot there is a lack possibility that the ball actually goes into the back of the net...well, unless you are D.C. United and the rest of the league leads your team in goals scored.

I certainly approve of most shots because they creates chances. A shot that is parried or even deflected back into a crowd is another chance, a better chance, to score a goal. The problem is when you take a shot you are also conceding possession, as well as position in the attacking third. Better position equates to a higher possibility of a scoring chance and ultimately that's what your trying to do: increase the odds of scoring a goal. Despite taking 164 shots from outside the box at home, Sporting only scored 5 goals, opposed to 29 goals from 105 shots inside the box.

Taking shots from better locations is going to improve your odds, but it's more than that. It's about finding the opportunity to win games. Saturday will simply be about finding those moments, finishing them and then, hopefully, winning.

Both teams have remarkable similarities and they both possess the ability to expose the others weaknesses. This has the potential to be one of the best MLS Cups in recent memory. That isn't to say that LA and Houston pounding on each other hasn't been somewhat entertaining.

But SKC and RSL bring to the table a style of soccer that is pleasing to watch, and each procures shots---which is one of the biggest complaints from people who are infrequent viewers. It also will, hopefully, attract some of those individuals who usually are less inclined to watch American soccer, relegating themselves to the European versions.

Here is just hoping the game is just interesting.

ASA Podcast XXX: The One Where We Talk Conference Finals

Happy Thanksgiving, all! We have a Conference Finals-centric podcast concerning the outcomes this past weekend's matches. Also, there was a little discussion that came out of it concerning formations vs. personnel. It's just us talking and coming up some random thoughts. It's not that long, but it's us and we're having a good chat... I think Matty at one point insults Sebastián Velásquez's hair cut, so there is that. [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/asa-podcast-xxx_-the-one-where-we-ta.mp3]

Does last season matter?

We've shown time and time again how helpful a team's shot rates are in projecting how well that team is likely to do going forward. To this point, however, data has always been contained in-season, ignoring what teams did in past seasons. Since most teams keep large percentages of their personnel, it's worth looking into the predictive power of last season. We don't currently have shot locations for previous seasons, but we do have general shot data going back to 2011. This means that I can look at all the 2012 and 2013 teams, and how important their 2011 and 2012 seasons were, respectively. Here goes.

First, I split each of the 2012 and 2013 seasons into two halves, calculating stats from each half. Let's start by leaving out the previous season's data. Here is the predictive power of shot rates and finishing rates, where the response variable is second-half goal differential.

Stat

Coefficient

P-value

Intercept

-28.36792

0.04%

Attempt Diff (first 17)

0.14244

0.00%

Finishing Diff (first 17)

77.06047

1.18%

Home Remaining

3.37472

0.03%

To summarize, I used total shot attempt differential and finishing rate differential from the first 17 games to predict the goal differential for each team in the final 17 games. Also, I controlled for how many home games each team had remaining. The sample size here is the 56 team-seasons from 2011 through 2013. All three variables are significant in the model, though the individual slopes should be interpreted carefully.*

The residual standard error for this model is high at 6.4 goals of differential. Soccer is random, and predicting exact goal differentials is impossible, but that doesn't mean this regression is worthless. The R-squared value is 0.574, though as James Grayson has pointed out to me, the square root of that figure (0.757) makes more intuitive sense. One might say that we are capable of explaining 57.4 percent of the variance in second-half goal differentials, or 75.7 percent of the standard deviation (sort of). Either way, we're explaining something, and that's cool.

But we're here to talk about the effects of last season, so without further mumbo jumbo, the results of a more-involved linear regression:

Stat

Coefficient

P-value

Intercept

-31.3994

1.59%

Attempt Diff (first 17)

0.12426

0.03%

Attempt Diff (last season)

0.02144

28.03%

Finishing Diff (first 17)

93.27359

1.14%

Finishing Diff (last season)

72.69412

12.09%

Home Remaining

3.71992

1.53%

Now we've added teams' shot and finishing differentials from the previous season. Obviously, I had to cut out the 2011 data (since 2010 is not available to me currently), as well as Montreal's 2012 season (since they made no Impact in 2011**). This left me with a sample size of 37 teams. Though the residual standard error was a little higher at 6.6 goals, the regression now explained 65.2 percent of the variance in second-half goal differential. Larger sample sizes would be nice, and I'll work on that, but for now it seems that---even halfway through a season---the previous season's data may improve the projection, especially when it comes to finishing rates.

But what about projecting outcomes for, say, a team's fourth game of the season? Using its rates from just three games of the current season would lead to shaky projections at best. I theorize that, as a season progresses, the current season's data get more and more important for the prediction, while the previous season's data become relatively less important.

My results were most assuredly inconclusive, but leaned in a rather strange direction. The previous season's shot data was seemingly more helpful in predicting outcomes during the second half of the season than it was in the first half---except, of course, the first few weeks of the season. Specifically, the previous season's shot data was more helpful for predicting games from weeks 21 to 35 than  it was from weeks 6 to 20. This was true for finishing rates, as well, and led me to recheck my data. The data was errorless, and now I'm left to explain why information from a team's previous season helps project game outcomes in the second half of the current season better than the first half.

Anybody want to take a look? Here are the results of some logistic regression models. Note that the coefficients represent the estimated change in (natural) log odds of a home victory.

 Weeks 6 - 20

Coefficient

P-value

Intercept

0.052

67.36%

Home Shot Diff

0.139

0.35%

H Shot Diff (previous)

-0.073

29.30%

Away Shot Diff

-0.079

7.61%

A Shot Diff (previous)

-0.052

47.09%

Weeks 21 - 35

Coefficient

P-value

Intercept

0.036

78.94%

Home Shot Diff

0.087

19.37%

H Shot Diff (previous)

0.181

6.01%

Away Shot Diff

-0.096

15.78%

A Shot Diff (previous)

-0.181

4.85%

Later on in the season, during weeks 21 to 35, the previous season's data actually appears to become more important to the prediction than the current season's data---both in statistical significance and actual significance. This despite the current season's shot data being based on an ample sample of at least 19 games (depending on the specific match in the data set). So I guess I'm comfortable saying that last season matters, but I'm still confused---a condition I face daily.

*The model suggests that each additional home game remaining projects a three-goal improvement in differential (3.37, actually). In a vacuum, that makes no sense. However, we are not vacuuming. Teams that have more home games remaining have also played a tougher schedule. Thus the +3.37 coefficient for each additional home game remaining is also adjusting the projection for teams who's shot rates are suffering due to playing on the road more frequently. 

**Drew hates me right now.

ASA Podcast XXIX: The International Break And All That Garbage

Hey, guys... we're back with better audio quality this week. A big thanks to Drew who put things together last week in my place, and despite technology failing apart around them, Drew and Matty were able to put together a great podcast. This week on the show we tackle MLS playoffs, CONCACAF and USMNT dealings and then some Transfers/Loan rumors that are out there. It's a longer podcast, but it'd been a few weeks since we all got together, and things just rolled. I hope you enjoy it.

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/29-asa-podcast-xxix_-the-internation.mp3]

MVP Discussion: Soccer shares baseball's issues

In the wake of Major League Baseball awarding its MVP to Miguel Cabrera, debates over what "valuable" means have once again flared up. Though soccer and baseball are two incredibly different sports, I think we can apply some of the same logic to both MVP discussions. Major League Soccer has about two weeks remaining before its MVP award is handed out, and we will no doubt encounter many of the same controversies in the soccer blogosphere that appear in baseball every season. The MVP controversy usually begins with what "valuable" means. I think there's little doubt in most people's minds that "valuable" and "skilled" are correlated. The main controversy is how correlated. To some, asking who was the best player in Major League Soccer in 2013 would be equivalent to asking who was the most valuable to his team. To others, there would be some key distinctions, the most common of which is that MVPs must come from teams that reach the post season.

In retort to that thinking, some very astute commenters in a Fangraphs.com forum offered up these nuggets. Hendu for Kutch made the analogy:

"We each want to buy something that costs $1. I’ve got a quarter, 8 nickels, and 10 pennies. My 'team' of coins is worth 75 cents and falls short of being able to buy the item. You have one dime and 18 nickels. Your 'team' is worth $1, and you successfully buy the item. Is your dime more valuable than my quarter simply because it led to a successful item purchase?"

Mike Trout = quarter and Miguel Cabrera = dime, for those of you not so into baseball, and the question is a good one. Few would argue that the dime is more valuable than the quarter just because it found itself in a position to help buy that scrumptious Twix.

In reply to someone arguing that the quarter had no value because it didn't lead to the purchase of a desired item, BIP and ndavis910 then chimed in:

"Except not everything costs $1, and at any rate, you would always choose the quarter over the dime when accumulating money for a purchase."

"Especially when you don’t know the cost of the items until you get to the store. In baseball, a team cannot be sure how many wins it will take to reach the playoffs until the last day of the season. In your example, the quarter is the most valuable piece regardless of whether or not the item cost $1 or $0.75."

When thinking about attributing value to players like Marco Di Vaio, Mike Magee, Camilo Sanvezzo, Robbie Keane and company, why should it matter where their teams finished? If one believes that Magee, for instance, is the best player in MLS, then does it matter if he took his team from 39 points to 49, versus from 40 points to 50? Either way, it's still ten points of value in the standings. When Magee was traded to Chicago, neither Chicago nor Magee knew that the Fire was going to need 50 points to make the playoffs. The fact that they got just 49 points shouldn't negate any of Magee's value.

If you say that it matters because MLS clubs get real value from extra playoff games, then think about this. Playoff cutoff lines are quite arbitrary. If MLS allowed only the top two teams in from each conference---not completely unreasonable for a league of just 19 teams---then none of the players mentioned above would be considered under this playoffs requirement. Playoffs represent an arbitrary bar that the players competing for the award don't get to set, and while reaching the playoffs does bring the team measurable revenue and value, basing an award on something outside an individual's control would, in my opinion, strip the award of its intended meaning and purpose.

Now let's anticipate the logical counterargument---that players pick up their games in playoff races and play well when it matters most.

For a moment, let's ignore the fact that little evidence has ever been found in professional sports that players can turn it on and turn it off as needed. This past season, Magee scored seven goals in Chicago's final nine games, a stretch in which the team averaged 1.56 points per match. That represents a pace that would have gotten the Fire into the playoffs if maintained for the entire season. Di Vaio scored five goals in his last 10 games---I even included that tenth-to-last game in which he scored two goals---in a stretch where Montreal tallied just 0.7 points per match, limping into the playoffs on a tie-breaker with Chicago. Just because one team makes the playoffs doesn't mean its best player was at his peak when it mattered. Goals are, admittedly, a narrow-minded way to measure a striker's value, but I think the point is still valid.

For me, the Magee-Di Vaio example above may have been no more than an exercise in confirmation bias. I chose to see what I already believed. However, the logic behind the belief that team standings shouldn't matter to players' MVP merits is still good stuff, and transcends any biased example I can come up with.

If we're ready to agree that that the MVP award should essentially be given to the best overall player, then we still have a tall task ahead of us. How do we measure skill on the soccer field? That is the 64,000-dollar question, and one we hope to help tackle here at ASA some day. But perhaps it's not so crazy to think that a guy like Federico Higuain is deserving of the MVP award. If you scoff at that notion, you likely do so because you've been trained to think about MVP awards in a certain way.

We're all about re-thinking things around here.