ASA Podcast XV: The One Where We Talk About Home Field Advantage

We're back in Episode 15, in this episode we talk about the USMNT and the Gold Cup Final (that the US has now already won), we talk a bit about Home Field Advantage and we finish up with a little game of Marry, Boff, Kill, announcer style. We must decide between Eric Wynalda, Gus Johnson and Ian Darke. You can find us on both iTunes and Stitcher... please be kind on your ratings.

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/asa-episode-xv.mp3]

Analysis Evolved: Podcast XIV - The One Where We Talk American Value

This week we talk US National Team and look back on their group play, specifically the game against Costa Rica. We also take a look at some things that we're glad for, and for other things...well, not so much. We also talk Jozy Altidore and American soccer players' market values. And to conclude, we review our predictions from Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas match from last week and preview LA Galaxy at home against Vancouver. I hope you enjoy! [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/asa-episode-xiv.mp3]

Making Note of Interesting MLS Moves: Brandon McDonald

We're going to see a lot of people forever reference a term for finding something undervalued relative to what it provides. Such moves in sports are often spun off as "moneyball" type moves. I love the idea of finding undervalued assets, things that can have their production used in a manner which it benefits someone who actually needs it. The problem is most of the time when people refer to something as "moneyball" it's mostly just butchering the term or passing off a sale for the sake of either saving face or trying to sound semi-intelligent about an acquisition. It just seems to be an overused term in sports today and it has started to defeat the principle of the idea. And then there is this...

"The basic premise of ‘Money Ball’ is that you try to acquire undervalued assets," general manager Garth Lagerwey said. "We’ve had a long track record of picking up pieces that other people don’t want anymore and cultivating their talents, and that’s a credit to our coaching staff and the guys in our locker room who believe in our system."

Garth Lagerway, the current General Manager of Real Salt Lake, is explaining why he just worked out a deal with the worst team in the league for a player they just benched. The narrative delivered by the Salt Lake press is rather uninteresting and all together doesn't matter. What is interesting, at least to me, is the outlook for an RSL team that has sought to add depth to their weakness. While being a club that has been pretty much on par with teams like the Portland Timbers and Seattle Sounders in terms of allowing shots, they've been outstanding preventing those opportunities from turning into goals. You could of course point to Nick Rimando, but also Josh Saunders who worked a shut out of his own against FC Dallas this past weekend.

However, no amounts of Saunders and Rimando are going to help the Lakers keep up with that rate. The only way they can be assured of limiting future goals is by limiting future attempts. Enter Brandon McDonald, formerly of the last place DC United, who was owed approximately 275K at the start of this season. He's hardly a "money ball" type buy. But a couple points have been mentioned. Lagerway surrendered basically nothing very little (third-round pick (2014) and a conditional choice (2015), neither of which should have much, if any impact to the United and their chances at fielding a competitive team next season) in order to acquire someone who was instrumental in enabling his club to make a late second half run into the playoffs last season.

I'm sure our own DCU season ticket holder, Drew, and others can speak more to how well he's performed this season. The standards set by Squwaka have him ranked as the #71 overall defender (among all defenders) with a performance score an even 150, though sorted purely by defensive score he ranks 57th overall with a score of 93. Turning to the other side of the analytical coin; Whoscored ranks him as the #2 best performer with a rating of 7.02 and leading the team in defensive actions and more specifically block shots.

Okay, so comparing him to his peers, he's probably not "worthy" of being a bench guy on the last place team. But is he worth the 100+ thousand dollars that RSL will owe him this season on the rest of his contract. The answer is surprising. According to a couple of anonymous sources and general digging, it appears that Real Salt Lake may have a solid collection of allocation money saved for a rainy day and possibly used to pay down McDonald's salary. Now, we don't know much about allocation money, and the amounts that teams have are a well-guarded secret. But I was told that they planned on using a small amount on McDonald and now suddenly his salary isn't so influential on the salary cap.

This is an interesting move and one that could go either way, good or bad. I'm not sure I would call this a "moneyball" move. But it's certainly interesting and it's something that I think you'll see more of as teams fall away from the pack. It's expensive to find players outside of the league, and many teams are in a state of transition (Seattle, for one) and do not necessarily have all the finances usually afforded them. Buying low or taking advantage of players that teams are ready to sell on---but can still be useful to your team---is always a smart business practice. I guess that kind of would qualify as a "undervalued asset".

Right there, I made my own skin crawl.

PDO: Week 20 Update

Last week, we talked about PDO...a lot. We likely will continue to talk about PDO and monitor it through the season. After games played this past weekend here are the up-to-date rankings. I know that Matthias usually just updates his page on Monday, but I'm actually going to make these a post so that when I want to do a week-by-week investigation later on this off-season, it saves me time. Because it's all about me.

Team SA GA GA% Sv% SF GF SH% TSR Points Games PPG PDO
Portland Timbers 83 18 0.22 0.78 93 30 0.32 0.528 33 19 1.74 1106
New England Rev. 75 16 0.21 0.79 72 22 0.31 0.490 24 18 1.33 1092
Real Salt Lake 87 18 0.21 0.79 112 32 0.29 0.563 37 20 1.85 1079
New York Red Bulls 83 24 0.29 0.71 79 29 0.37 0.488 31 20 1.55 1078
Seattle Sounders FC 73 20 0.27 0.73 61 21 0.34 0.455 24 17 1.41 1070
Houston Dynamo 76 19 0.25 0.75 76 22 0.29 0.500 29 19 1.53 1039
Vancouver Whitecaps 81 26 0.32 0.68 91 32 0.35 0.529 32 19 1.68 1031
FC Dallas 105 27 0.26 0.74 96 27 0.28 0.478 31 20 1.55 1024
Colorado Rapids 81 22 0.27 0.73 80 23 0.29 0.497 27 20 1.35 1016
Philadelphia Union 88 30 0.34 0.66 93 32 0.34 0.514 30 20 1.50 1003
Columbus Crew 90 23 0.26 0.74 89 23 0.26 0.497 23 19 1.21 1003
Montreal Impact 91 29 0.32 0.68 97 31 0.32 0.516 31 18 1.72 1001
Sporting Kansas City 56 19 0.34 0.66 92 29 0.32 0.622 33 20 1.65 976
L.A. Galaxy 70 24 0.34 0.66 100 30 0.30 0.588 30 20 1.50 957
San Jose Earthquakes 105 32 0.30 0.70 84 21 0.25 0.444 24 21 1.14 945
CD Chivas USA 107 35 0.33 0.67 63 17 0.27 0.371 14 19 0.74 943
Toronto FC 77 27 0.35 0.65 59 17 0.29 0.434 13 18 0.72 937
Chicago Fire 77 28 0.36 0.64 91 20 0.22 0.542 21 18 1.17 856
DC United 81 29 0.36 0.64 56 8 0.14 0.409 10 19 0.53 785

This week you see Montreal continue to sit somewhere rather neutral in the luck department. Interesting situation after reading Richard Whittall's weekly analytic piece on the Canadian club yesterday. Even more-so when considering some of the screaming by the press and cries about replacing possibly replacing Marco Schallibaum  at the helm...in fact I kind of think it's down right crazy. I wouldn't considered the Impact to be a Supporter Shield contender---that's just me---but it also doesn't mean they won't be. Their points-per-match total is third in MLS, and they still have one-two games in hand on the clubs ahead of them.

Speaking of the East. The New York Red Bulls continue their rise up the luck charts. Something to consider after defeating the Impact 4-0 this week and all the talk about "finally coming together". Remember this graphic is about luck, not about talent. That is to say, be careful about high and lofty dreams, east siders. I can see the Red Bulls struggling to retain that first place position.

Another riser, this one out west, is Vancouver. They are on their way up with the recent performances of Kenny Miller, Camilo and Brad Knighton. Their 1.68 points-per-game average have them quietly (or, of late, not so quietly) contending for a top-3 playoff position ahead of Dallas, LA and Seattle. Something to take note and see whether they are truly overachieving and just on a hot-streak, or finally hitting a much-needed groove.

Lastly, on the subject of FC Dallas, I think it's interesting how they've held pretty firm with a PDO over 1000. Expect them to continue to regress over the next few weeks. The number of shots that they are allowing to reach Raul Fernandez is quiet surprising, and the fact that they are producing an above average save% makes me question how much longer they'll stick around. Though, admittedly, much of that has been due to George John being MIA. His return from the hamstring strain will be crucial to stopping attacks before they get to the keeper.

ASA Podcast XII: The one where we talk PDO

I hope you all have enjoyed the build up to this week's podcast concerning PDO. In today's episode we review the Gold Cup situation with the Mens National Team, talk a bit about PDO, and then preview Real Salt Lake and Dallas FC (so that you can see how grossly wrong we were). Enjoy! [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/asa-episode-xii.mp3]

PDO: Major League Soccer Table 7/12/13

We had a light introduction of the statistic of PDO last evening, and as promised, here is the corresponding table as it exists for Major League Soccer.

Team Games PPG TSR PDO
New England Rev. 17 1.41 0.497 1101
Portland Timbers 18 1.67 0.530 1100
Seattle Sounders FC 16 1.50 0.469 1071
FC Dallas 19 1.63 0.474 1060
Real Salt Lake 19 1.79 0.569 1049
Montreal Impact 17 1.82 0.522 1039
New York Red Bulls 19 1.47 0.480 1039
Houston Dynamo 18 1.44 0.493 1034
Vancouver Whitecaps 18 1.61 0.525 1016
Colorado Rapids 20 1.35 0.497 1016
Columbus Crew 19 1.21 0.489 1012
Philadelphia Union 19 1.42 0.520 975
L.A. Galaxy 19 1.58 0.594 967
Sporting Kansas City 19 1.58 0.603 965
San Jose Earthquakes 20 1.05 0.432 945
Toronto FC 17 0.76 0.460 940
CD Chivas USA 18 0.78 0.384 937
Chicago Fire 17 1.24 0.551 864
DC United 19 0.53 0.382 802

If you're trying to figure out what to look at, there are a couple of things that may, possibly, jump out at you. The first being the New England Revolution sandwiched between the two best teams in MLS, Portland and Montreal. Admittedly, the club has been on a sort of hot streak but it a large percentage of their PDO comes from the lack of goals they've conceded. Opposing clubs have the worst conversion rate of Goals/Shots against New England.

Similarly, you see Sporting Kansas City sitting 15th in PDO and can't help but be a little bit scared of what could come in the second half should there be positive regression. Considering all the head scratching that the media and supporters have concerning Seattle's early exploits, Sporting has gone largely unnoticed with an underwhelming start. Yet, the TSR (explanation linked--we'll get into this more down the road) is very much there and so are the points. An interesting out come for a club that (deservedly) had the hype machine cranked to full.

Oh, and DC United is definitely still a combination bad and unlucky. Sorry, Drew.

A little information on: PDO

With the holiday behind us we can once again start to return to the business at hand. The half-way mark is upon us and MLS has given us an exciting and very tight race across both the Western and Eastern conferences. With that comes another week of podcasts. #AnalysisEvolved. This week we plan on talking a bit about a statistic by the name PDO. Unlike how you might imagine most statistic names coming about, or things with three random letters, this is not an acronym. It's pronounced how it's sounds.

Originally a hockey metric, PDO is simply the sum of save percentage and scoring percentage, then multiplied times 1000. The rest of the history as it applies to soccer isn't necessarily important.

A great introduction to the idea and how it applies to the sport is given by Tyler Dellow of mc79hockey.com, and there is another introduction on the site Pension Plan Puppet by one "Skinny Fish."

Both sites give examples of how PDO can potentially isolate a team's performance over the course of a season and compare those to past performances, various incarnations of the team, and of course, other teams.

I can't directly attribute who was the first to apply the team analysis to the sport of soccer(Grayson confirmed he was the first...). But the oldest article I can find referencing its usage within the sport comes from the ever-smart and sophisticated Canuck, James Grayson. His series of introductions to the metric is linked below.

A Premier: PDO

PDO – part I

PDO – part II

Along with an explanation of the stat and some information about how it regresses to the mean---because it's fantastic at doing that---there is also a bit of information about how it can be used to compare different clubs to one another.

Basically, it comes down to being one of the best methods to determine the barometer of a team. While we can look at point totals and standings in the table, PDO can reasonably tell us if a team is over performing or under performing.

I'm not in any way an expert on this stat. There are of course some occasions were you may run into issues with trying to apply it to a specific scenario, and I could point anyone in search of more answers on the subject in better directions than toward myself. I could easily name about a dozen or so people that are much more versed in this metric than I am.

However, since we were going to take about it on our podcast this weekend, I wanted to give the reader/listener an opportunity to find some quick and easy references to the material before hearing us talk about it this weekend.

I'll have an updated PDO standings for you all tomorrow which will lead into our discussions on Saturday.

Possession Confusion Update

I wrote back in May about the paradoxical nature of OPTA's possession statistic in MLS---how more possession corresponds to better shot ratios, better shot ratios correspond to better goal differentials, but somehow more possession does not correspond to better goal differentials when we control for certain variables. In fact, I found that once I controlled for the teams playing in a given game, possession had a negative correlation with goal differential and winning. The new data agrees with the old. Correlations suggest that team possession still correlates positively with scoring attempts (p-value = 0.01), scoring attempts still correlate positively to goal differential (p-value = 0.02), and now with more data, possession is also positively correlated to goal differential (p-value = 0.01). That all seems to line up with logic, but the paradox from before still exists.

When I look game-by-game and control for the home and away teams, in-game possession has a positive correlation to shot ratio, but a negative correlation to goal differential. In other words, the team that has more possession in a given game tends to also earn more shot attempts, but still loses more frequently than we would expect. As mentioned in the first article back in May, this seems paradoxical. I had some theories in that article, but reader David Stringer got me to think about another logical explanation.

Teams that develop leads tend to sit back more defensively, and often are satisfied allowing the opponent to possess all it wants in less dangerous parts of the pitch. A team that has a lead in the second half probably  got that lead because it was generating more opportunities (read: attempts). It makes sense that the team that eventually went on to win also produced better shot ratios early on before getting the lead. After getting the lead, the team in front was willing to give up extreme possession relative to a more neutral shot rate. Thus it ends the game with poor possession, but a still favorable shot rate.

Just a theory, and I'd love to hear about other ideas! The stats are definitely not lying. These correlations are very real, but the causes for the possession paradox are still elusive.

ASA Podcast XI: The One Where We Talk Gold Cup XI And MLS Best XI

It's all about XI. We talk about Eddie Johnsons golden dome, run down the results of the US Open Cup (spoiler alert: Matty was 4/4 with his predictions) and then we cover the possible Gold Cup starting XI and then talk about our personal starting XI in the MLS. Enjoy! My apologies for not getting this sooner as I ran into a bit of hiccup yesterday. Hopefully that's behind me and we can press forth.

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/asa-episode-xi.mp3]