Power Rankings
These power rankings are designed to rank teams based on how we would expect them to do if the season were played all over again, and each team played a balanced home and away schedule of 34 games. This ranking is less a function of a team's current position in the standings, and more a projection of what would happen over the long run. The model that produced the results is a diagonally inflated bivariate Poisson model, and it was created to be predictive. The inputs to the model include teams' expected goals for and against, finishing rates for and against (as well as those same statistics from the last 17 games of the past season), and the proportion of home games played by each team (which may artificially inflate or deflate certain statistics).
2015 (Final 4 weeks)
*The model now utilizes only data from this season. Historically, our models have performed extremely well toward the end of the season in terms of projecting which teams will make the playoffs, and how those teams do in the playoffs.
| Team | xPoints | xGD |
|---|---|---|
| NYRB | 60.1 | 24.76 |
| TOR | 54.0 | 12.43 |
| LA | 53.3 | 11.32 |
| CLB | 50.8 | 6.52 |
| NE | 50.6 | 6.36 |
| MTL | 50.4 | 5.96 |
| FCD | 50.4 | 6.07 |
| VAN | 50.2 | 5.83 |
| SKC | 49.7 | 4.77 |
| HOU | 48.1 | 2.19 |
| POR | 46.3 | -0.81 |
| SJ | 45.7 | -1.73 |
| SEA | 45.0 | -3.09 |
| PHI | 44.6 | -4.24 |
| CHI | 42.8 | -7.83 |
| ORL | 41.9 | -8.65 |
| COL | 39.8 | -11.10 |
| RSL | 38.8 | -14.78 |
| NYC | 38.5 | -16.74 |
| DCU | 37.2 | -17.25 |
2014
| Team | xPoints |
|---|---|
| LA | 68.6 |
| SEA | 59.7 |
| FCD | 52.1 |
| CLB | 51.9 |
| POR | 51.0 |
| SKC | 50.4 |
| VAN | 50.4 |
| RSL | 50.3 |
| PHI | 49.5 |
| NE | 47.9 |
| DCU | 47.0 |
| NYRB | 47.0 |
| TOR | 44.5 |
| CHI | 40.0 |
| MTL | 39.6 |
| COL | 39.1 |
| HOU | 37.5 |
| SJ | 35.7 |
| CHV | 27.8 |
2013
| Team | xPoints |
|---|---|
| LA | 63.3 |
| POR | 57.6 |
| NYRB | 57.4 |
| SKC | 56.1 |
| NE | 54.9 |
| RSL | 53.6 |
| COL | 49.3 |
| VAN | 49.3 |
| HOU | 48.1 |
| MTL | 46.6 |
| CHI | 46.0 |
| SEA | 45.8 |
| SJ | 44.9 |
| PHI | 43.1 |
| FCD | 43.0 |
| CLB | 42.9 |
| TOR | 36.1 |
| DCU | 26.7 |
| CHV | 26.1 |
2012
| Team | xPoints |
|---|---|
| SJ | 59.4 |
| SKC | 57.4 |
| SEA | 57.1 |
| LA | 56.7 |
| RSL | 56.6 |
| DCU | 52.4 |
| CHI | 49.4 |
| NYRB | 48.5 |
| HOU | 48.1 |
| NE | 46.7 |
| FCD | 46.5 |
| MTL | 44.0 |
| COL | 43.9 |
| PHI | 43.5 |
| VAN | 41.5 |
| CLB | 41.3 |
| POR | 35.1 |
| TOR | 32.6 |
| CHV | 28.8 |
2011
| Team | xPoints |
|---|---|
| SEA | 56.8 |
| FCD | 54.8 |
| LA | 54.4 |
| RSL | 53.7 |
| SKC | 53.1 |
| HOU | 52.5 |
| NYRB | 51.0 |
| COL | 49.4 |
| PHI | 48.2 |
| CHI | 48.1 |
| SJ | 45.3 |
| CHV | 45.1 |
| POR | 42.8 |
| DCU | 42.7 |
| CLB | 42.1 |
| NE | 35.6 |
| VAN | 34.5 |
| TOR | 31.7 |