Playoff Probabilities

Playoff probabilities come from a combination of where teams are now in the tables, what their remaining schedule is, and how good our model thinks they are. It's the same model that produces the Power Rankings, but the key difference is that here we take each team's current standing and remaining schedule into account.

The remaining games this season are simulated using a random number generator and the suggested probabilities from our model. Points are summed, and the top six teams from each conference are recorded. All MLS tie-breakers are considered down to card accumulation. We can't make the model predict cards...yet. The simulation does this 10,000 times and tallies the proportion of times each team finished in each seeded position for playoffs. The projections get more precise as the season continues, like one would expect.

Updated Thursday, 10/22/15

Note: Montreal can qualify as a 3, 5, or 6 seed, but not the 4 seed. That's because a tie or loss against Toronto this weekend means they finish 5th or 6th, depending on how the Revs do against NYC. If Montreal beats Toronto then they'll leapfrog TFC and finish in 3rd. That's because a tie in the Columbus v DC game would mean Montreal ties Columbus on points for 3rd in the East, and wins on the first tiebreaker (total wins). If the Crew win, Montreal will finish tied for with DCU for 3rd and win on the 2nd tiebreaker (goal differential). If DC wins, then Montreal finishes alone in third. Crazy, man.

All playoff scenarios are explained here by MLSsoccer.com.

Eastern Conference
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 POFF% SS% POFF Chg% SS Chg%
NYRB 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.618 0.000 0.154
CLB 0.000 0.625 0.054 0.255 0.066 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
DCU 0.000 0.326 0.200 0.474 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
TOR 0.000 0.050 0.251 0.205 0.303 0.192 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
MTL 0.000 0.000 0.495 0.000 0.312 0.193 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
NE 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.066 0.319 0.614 0.999 0.000 -0.000 0.000
ORL 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
Western Conference
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 POFF% SS% POFF Chg% SS Chg%
FCD 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.382 0.000 0.000
VAN 0.000 0.392 0.242 0.181 0.137 0.048 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
LA 0.000 0.363 0.259 0.279 0.099 0.001 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
POR 0.000 0.180 0.275 0.189 0.225 0.118 0.988 0.000 0.007 0.000
SEA 0.000 0.065 0.199 0.203 0.223 0.255 0.945 0.000 0.034 0.000
SKC 0.000 0.000 0.025 0.137 0.251 0.411 0.825 0.000 -0.119 0.000
SJ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.065 0.167 0.243 0.000 0.078 0.000
*Changes based only on Wednesday night's SKCvCOL game.