2015 MLS Cup Playoffs Projections
These are the simulated probabilities of each MLS playoff team reaching subsequent rounds of the tournament. Game-by-game probabilities were derived from a bivariate Poisson model, allowing us to simulate goal scoring, an essential ingredient for emulating soccer's two-legged system.
Updated Monday, 11/30/15.
| Team | Cup | Change |
|---|---|---|
| CLB | 0.646 | 0.247 |
| POR | 0.354 | 0.106 |
| FCD | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| NYRB | 0.000 | -0.221 |
"Change" is since leg 2 of the Conference Championship
Simulation is based on 50,000 runs, with probabilities derived from both Actual and Expected Goals.